French Open: Day 10 Preview and Picks
By Ricky Dimon,
(15) TOMAS BERDYCH (-187) VS. (11) MIKHAIL YOUZHNY (+150)
Berdych is simply on fire right now. He destroyed John Isner in the third round, losing just five games in the entire match, and then took care of Andy Murray in straight sets. Ever since he beat Roger Federer in Miami, Berdych has looked like a different player both mentally and physically.
That’s why he is favored here even though Youzhny is the higher-ranked player. The Russian basically had a walkover against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and while he will be well rested, I’m not sure that’s ideal preparation heading into such a huge match.
Pick: Berdych in four sets
(1) ROGER FEDERER VS. (5) ROBIN SODERLING (OVER/UNDER 36.5 GAMES)
You can’t argue with the stats. Federer is 12-0 lifetime against Soderling and 10 of the 12 wins were in straight sets. Soderling won just 11 games in last year’s French Open final.
The Swede should be able to handle the pressure of a quarterfinal better than a title match, but those head-to-head numbers are tough to look past. And we can’t overreact to Soderling’s blowout of Marin Cilic because Cilic is a clay-court novice.
Pick: Under 36.5 games
(5) ELENA DEMENTIEVA (+125) VS. (19) NADIA PETROVA (-175)
Talk about overreacting. Petrova hammered Venus Williams Sunday, but Venus has never been good on clay. Never. It’s a nice win, yes, but let’s not forget that Petrova went to 10-8 in the third set with Aravane Rezai one round earlier. She is far from invincible.
Dementieva is far more experienced than Petrova (she is also a former French Open runner up) at this point in Grand Slams and her serve is not as much of a liability on the slow stuff. With Justine Henin out of the way, this is a real chance for Dementieva to win her first Grand Slam. She might not convert, but she won’t let the chance slip away in the quarterfinals.
Pick: Dementieva in two sets
(3) CAROLINE WOZNIACKI (-200) VS. (17) FRANCESCA SCHIAVONE (+150)
Not to take anything away from Schiavone, but she has benefited from a favorable draw up to this point. The two seeds she has faced are Na Li and Maria Kirilenko, hardly formidable opponents. This is Schiavone’s fourth Grand Slam quarterfinal but she has never been past this stage (0-3 lifetime).
Wozniacki should make it 0-4. The No. 3 seed is troubled by players who can overpower her, but Schiavone just spins the ball in play. Wozniacki is also coming off a great win over an in-form Flavia Pennetta.
Pick: Wonziacki in two sets