French Open: Day 11 Preview and Picks
By Ricky Dimon
(3) NOVAK DJOKOVIC VS. (22) JURGEN MELZER (OVER/UNDER 35.5 GAMES)
Djokovic has been relatively up-and-down at the French Open, losing one set in three of his four matches. And he really hasn’t played a clay courter of Melzer’s prowess.
Melzer is playing in his first Grand Slam quarterfinal, but he was also in the fourth round for the first time and he handled that pressure with no trouble whatsoever. The Austrian also hammered David Ferrer, and Ferrer had been in far better form than Djokovic. This could be one of the best matches of the tournament.
Pick: Over 35.5 games
(2) RAFAEL NADAL VS. (19) NICOLAS ALMAGRO (OVER/UNDER 29.5 GAMES)
Almagro has been competitive in each of their past two meetings. Nadal won 3-6, 7-6(2), 7-5 last fall in Paris and had to save multiple match points. The World No. 2 won 4-6, 6-2, 6-2 just a few weeks ago in Madrid. But let’s be honest, Nadal was a shell of himself last fall and Madrid might as well have been played on hard court.
More telling is their previous French Open encounter. In 2008, not long ago for those counting, Nadal triple-breadsticked Almagro 6-1, 6-1, 6-1 in the quarterfinals. It won’t be quite as bad this time around, but it will be convincing.
Pick: Under 29.5 games
(1) SERENA WILLIAMS VS. (7) SAMANTHA STOSUR (OVER/UNDER 21.5 GAMES)
Serena has been dominant at times this tournament, winning seven of her eight victorious sets by at least a 6-2 margin. However, she lost a set in her third-round match and a similar hiccup against a player like Stosur could prove to be extremely costly.
Stosur, of course, is coming off a three-set upset of Justine Henin, who would have been favored against Serena had that blockbuster matchup come to fruition. Quite simply, if Stosur can beat Henin, she can beat Serena. The Aussie is also far more comfortable on clay than the World No. 1. I don’t think Stosur has quite enough to pull off another shocker, but this will be much closer than expected.
Pick: Over 21.5 games
(4) JELENA JANKOVIC (-163 TO WIN 2-0) VS. YAROSLAVA SHVEDOVA
Reaching a first-career Grand Slam quarterfinal is a great achievement, but it’s not a good formula for going beyond that point. Neither is playing Jankovic on clay. The Serb has lost just one set so far and she hammered Daniela Hantuchova 6-4, 6-2 Monday.
Shvedova got a great draw playing unseeded Jarmila Groth in the fourth round, although she did score nice wins over Agnieszka Radwanska and Alisa Kleybanova earlier in the event. Still, Radwanska and Kleybanova are not proven Grand Slam contenders like Jankovic, nor are they skilled on clay like Jankovic.
Pick: Jankovic in 2 sets