French Open: Day 9 Preview and Picks
By Ricky Dimon
(7) FERNANDO VERDASCO (-150) VS. (19) NICOLAS ALMAGRO (+110)
Verdasco played a ridiculous amount of tennis prior to the French Open, to the point where it went beyond sensible preparation. Still, I thought he would make it this far and he has…but just barely. The Spaniard needed four hours over the course of five sets to outlast Philipp Kohlschreiber on Saturday. This is where fatigue will finally catch up with him.
Even with a 100-percent Verdasco, I would still give Almagro just about even odds in this one. He is a master clay-court player and after going to five sets with Robin Haase in Round 1, Almagro has heated up in past two matches (both straight-set blowouts).
Pick: Almagro in 5 sets
(1) RAFAEL NADAL VS. (24) THOMAZ BELLUCCI (OVER/UNDER 27.5 GAMES)
Nadal, as expected, is destroying people at the French Open. He lost six games to Gianni Mina, seven to Horacio Zeballos, and 10 to Lleyton Hewitt.
As a 20-year-old in 2008, Bellucci had the misfortunate of playing Nadal in the first round and he went down 7-5, 6-3, 6-1. The Brazilian is a much different player now and an established clay-court force. I actually believe he is a possible future French Open champion. For now, Bellucci won’t get a set; but he will be competitive.
Pick: Over 27.5 games
(3) NOVAK DJOKOVIC VS. ROBBY GINEPRI (OVER/UNDER 33.5 GAMES)
The question is basically if Djokovic is going to lose a set. None of the sets are going to be blowouts because Djokovic’s serve is in shambles, so if Ginepri takes it to four, this is going way over 33.5 games.
Ginepri should win at least one set. He is often good for one breakout performance a year, and this is it in 2010. The win over Juan Carlos Ferrero was one of the biggest of his career and, while an upset of Djokovic is improbable, the Serb is not at his best right now.
Pick: Over 33.5
PARLAY: (22) JURGEN MELZER (-275) VS. TEIMURAZ GABASHVILI (+188) + (4) JELENA JANKOVIC (-300) VS. (23) DANIELA HANTUCHOVA (+220)
Gabashvili had never been past the second round of a Grand Slam and he had a 1-7 record in 2010 prior to the French Open. Eventually those numbers have to catch up with him, and beating Andy Roddick on clay is a lot different than beating Melzer on the surface. Plus, Melzer just hammered the hottest player in the tournament other than Nadal (David Ferrer).
Hantuchova has had a nice tournament so far and she took care of Yanina Wickmayer, but Wickmayer just had elbow surgery. Jankovic is one of the best defensive players in tennis and she is brutal to face on a clay court.
Pick: Melzer in 4 sets and Jankovic in 3 sets.