French Open: Men’s Final Preview and Analysis
By Ricky Dimon
RAFAEL NADAL (-385) VS. ROBIN SODERLING (+300), (OVER/UNDER 36.5 GAMES)
Rafael Nadal says that revenge is not on his mind. That’s a crock.
Robin Soderling is the only man who’s ever beat Nadal at the French Open, and he did it just last year in a fourth-round shocker that was without question one of the biggest upsets in tennis history.
Another Soderling win would be an upset of much smaller proportions because the Swede has become an established Grand Slam title contender. By taking out Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych (who had not lost a set prior to their semifinal match), Soderling has proven that his run to last year’s title match was no fluke.
That said, let’s not get carried away on the Soderling bandwagon. Everyone who is saying that Soderling is going to bludgeon Nadal off the court needs a bit of a reality check. Nadal had knee tendinitis at last season’s French and still went to fourth-set tiebreaker with an on-fire Soderling. A month earlier in Rome, a fully healthy Nadal humiliated the same guy 6-1, 6-0.
Yes this is a new year and a new Soderling, but this is also an old Nadal. You know, the pre-second half of 2009 Nadal. His injury-free tennis allowed him to become the first player to sweep all three clay-court Masters events in the same season. It has now allowed him to steamroll through his Roland Garros draw without dropping a set and without even facing one set point.
One more straight-set victory Nadal would almost certainly put the total at fewer than 36.5 games. However, Nadal needed two tiebreakers to get past Almagro and he finally subdued Melzer after an epic third-set struggle (8-6 in the tiebreaker). Soderling has the belief that Almagro and Melzer were lacking; Soderling knows that he can beat Nadal at the French Open. That—along with plenty of punishing groundstokes—should be enough to earn Soderling one set…and possibly more.
Nadal might get his revenge, but you can expect this one to be a thriller.
Pick: Over 36.5 games.
More ambitious ideas: Nadal +225 to win 3-1 and/or Nadal +500 to win 3-2