French Open: Men's Semifinals Odds and Picks
By Ricky Dimon
(2) RAFAEL NADAL VS. (22) JURGEN MELZER (OVER/UNDER 28.5 GAMES)
Nadal has blown out Melzer in two previous head-to-head meetings, but this is a new Melzer. At 29 years old, he has now advanced three rounds further than he had ever previously advanced at a Grand Slam. While the Austrian has obviously not faced anyone like Nadal yet this tournament, his performance against Novak Djokovic cannot be overstated. If Melzer can handle the pressure being two sets and a break down, he can handle the pressure of facing Nadal in a French Open semifinal.
That’s not to say he will win, of course. Nadal has not even lost a set this entire tournament and he is a ridiculous 36-1 lifetime at Roland Garros. Win No. 37 should come similarly to win No. 36. Like Nicolas Almagro, Melzer owns a big serve and powerful game that makes him tough to break. All three sets, therefore, should be close; just like they were against Almagro, whom Nadal only broke twice the entire match.
Melzer +8.5 games is also a solid play, but it’s riskier because it’s not hard to imagine Melzer winning one set and then Nadal cruising in a fourth. Any set for Melzer will put this way over the total games mark, but just one dominant set for Nadal would allow him to cover the games spread.
Pick: Over 28.5 games
(5) ROBIN SODERLING VS. (15) TOMAS BERDYCH (OVER/UNDER 39.5 GAMES)
These are two hottest players at the French Open, so anything less than the match of the tournament would be a bit of a disappointment. Soderling just toppled Roger Federer and while Federer wasn’t in peak form on Tuesday, there really wasn’t much he could do against the Swede, who was absolutely abusing the tennis ball.
It’s going to take something special to even stay on the court with Soderling right now, but Berdych clearly has what it takes. Like Nadal, Berdych hasn’t lost a single set at Roland Garros, and that’s not for lack of a tough draw. The Czech has hammered John Isner, Andy Murray and Mikhail Youzhny in his last three outings.
This one should go five, and even if it only goes four, 10 games per set should be expected. With the way these guys are serving, breaks will be few and far between; especially because conditions should be faster than they were in the Federer-Soderling match.
Pick: Over 39.5 games