French Open: Women’s Final Odds and Pick
By Ricky Dimon
(7) SAMANTHA STOSUR VS. (17) FRANCESCA SCHIAVONE (OVER /UNDER 20.5 GAMES)
What’s the deal with Cinderella stories at this year’s French Open? Jurgen Melzer making it three rounds further than he had ever advanced at a Grand Slam? Francesca Schiavone advancing two rounds further than her previous best slam performance? Crazy.
Let me start by saying that nothing should be taken away from Schiavone. She is 29 years old and in her 13th year on the WTA Tour, so this has been an absolutely incredible effort. Having said that, it’s easy to see that the Italian has benefited from a favorable draw.
The four seeded players she has taken out are Na Li, Maria Kirilenko, Caroline Wozniacki, and Elena Dementieva. Wozniacki had been questionable to even play Roland Garros due to injury and Dementieva quit after one set in the semifinals.
Stosur has done it in completely opposite fashion. She has defeated three consecutive former or current No. 1 players in the world; Justine Henin in the fourth round, Serena Williams in the quarters and Jelena Jankovic in the semis.
The 8-6 in the third set marathon against Serena (where Stosur saved a match point) didn’t leave the Australian short on fuel. She came back out two days later and destroyed Jankovic 6-1, 6-2.
Also in Stosur’s favor is the head-to-head history, as she leads Schiavone 4-1. Schiavone won their first meeting way back in 2005, but that was when Stosur was still a doubles specialist. Stosur has not lost a single set in their past four encounters (including two on clay), nor has she even been extended to a tiebreaker.
All signs point to a Stosur rout, but while going for the moneyline is safe, the value at -450 is weak. A smarter—albeit riskier play—is taking the under on the total games, as it’s hard to imagine Schiavone—in her first slam final—being competitive in any set. Stosur at -175 to win 2-0 is also decent value.
Pick: Under 20.5 games.