Greenbrier Classic Preview
By BetOnline.ag
The PGA Tour is at yet another Par 70 course this week for the Greenbrier Classic as it feels like that's all they've played on for the past six weeks outside of the US Open.
Either way, after massive flooding in the West Virginia a rea last year flooded out this course and cancelled the tournament, the PGA Tour is glad to be back this year after course workers have spent the entire year rebuilding and preparing the Old White TPC for this event.
It would have been nice for a few bigger names to show some more respect for that effort and show up to play, as another weak field is part of the story this week, but you can't totally blame those top names given the tough scheduling spot the Greenbrier Classic holds (on July 4th week, just two weeks before British Open).
Given that the Greenbrier Classic has always held this less than desirable spot on the PGA Tour schedule, getting big names to show up, and subsequently win this event is actually quite rare on both fronts. The past six winners of this event include the names of Danny Lee (2015 champion), Angel Cabrera, Jonas Blixt, Ted Potter Jr, Scott Stallings, and Stuart Appleby.
Even the guys who came up just short in many of those years aren't exactly a who's who of guys on Tour (Steven Bowditch, Matt Jones, George McNeill, Troy Kelly, Jeff Overton), so don't be surprised to see some names finish in the Top-10 this week that you weren't typically expecting to be there.
There are some solid names like Patrick Reed (+1200), Phil Mickelson (+2000), Kevin Kisner (+1600), and Bill Haas (+1600) that top the odds list, but it's a few other guys a little further down that I've chosen to focus on for this week.
Golfers to Watch
Webb Simpson (22/1) – Given that this course is structurally the same post-flood, it's going to favor guys who can take advantage of the generous fairways and do all the heavy lifting with their approach shots. Webb Simpson is definitely one of those guys as he is tops in the field over the last 100 rounds of golf in Strokes Gained: Approach, and has fantastic numbers basically across the board. Strokes Gained: Overall, Simpson comes in 4th in the field over that same span, 2nd in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and 6th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green. If he can get the flatstick rolling well right from the start (119th Strokes Gained:Putting), he could have a great opportunity to run away with this thing.
Stating that Simpson needs a big improvement with the putter may seem a bit obvious, but with his ball striking being so good relative to this field, he's going to get his chances. It's not like Simpson hasn't found success at this course in the past as he's got a 3rd, T7, and T9 on his resume here since 2011, and if he can recapture that form from year's past on the greens, his superb ball striking will have him floating around the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Johnson Wagner (80/1) - Wagner is not a guy that particularly lights up the stat sheet in terms of Strokes Gained numbers for this event, but it's hard to ignore his past history at the Greenbrier at these odds. Wagner has been in this field every year since 2011, and he's got a T11, T64, T2, T26, and T32 in those tournaments. For whatever reason, this course really seems to suit his eye and while a Top-10 wager (+700) does give you more wiggle room to cash, if you don't mind taking some stake in longshots, this may be your guy.
He's also coming off a T5 last week at the Quicken Loans as he's had two solid weeks in a row on Tour, so current form is definitely there for him to make some noise this week.
Billy Hurley III (100/1) – Hurley was a guy who got a lot of attention last week from bettors given he was the defending champion at the Quicken Loans, albeit at a different course. After many that did go that route last week with Hurley and his inflated price tag aren't going to be quick to go back to him again (he did finish T63 a week ago), I'm not scared to do so.
For one, Hurley has a much better price tag here at +10000, and when he played here in 2014 and 2015, he finished with a T4 and T37 respectively. Over his last 36 rounds of competitive golf he is 4th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 1th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Putting up numbers like that this week will give him a chance at a course he's experienced success at.
2017 Greenbrier Classic Golf Betting Picks
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
This weekend’s Greenbrier Classic is definitely cause for celebration after severe flooding forced the cancellation of last year’s tournament and also caused remarkable damage to the course. That being said, it is a little bit disappointing to see the field that will be on hand a year after the tournament in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia had to go on hiatus while the course was effectively rebuilt. It’s a tough time of year for PGA Tour pros, who have played majors and other big tournaments of late, and The Open Championship is just two weeks away, but it would have been nice to see a stronger field on the Old White TPC at the Greenbrier.
This is one of the newer regular stops on tour. This event actually started in 2010. Six different winners from five different countries have been victorious at the Greenbrier Classic. Danny Lee is still the reigning champion dating back to 2015 since last year’s event was washed out. Angel Cabrera won in 2014. Jonas Blixt, Ted Potter Jr., Scott Stallings, and Stuart Appleby are the other past victors. As mentioned this tournament comes three weeks after the US Open and two weeks before The Open Championship, so this is generally one of the weaker fields of the year.
Players will find the course very similar to what they played in 2015. The renovation of the course in southeastern West Virginia was done in a way that would preserve the way that the course was built. This is one of the higher elevation courses on the PGA Tour calendar with its location in the Appalachian Mountains. As you would expect, the course is lush, green, and thick, with a lot of tree-lined fairways. Some of the holes during the final stretch pay homage to St. Andrews, so there is a little bit of a links feel speckled throughout the track. The course was designed by Scotsman Charles Blair McDonald way back in 1914.
This is a pretty long par 70 measuring nearly 7,300 yards, but the average winning score over the last four years has been around 15-under, so it’s going to take a number to get there. There were two cuts for this event from 2010-14, but there was only one cut in 2015. The cut line is generally around even par or 1-over.
The favorite this week at 5Dimes Sportsbook is Patrick Reed at +1200. Reed will be playing this event for the fourth time in his career. He’s got a couple of top-30 finishes and a missed cut. He finished with four rounds under 70 in 2015, but his 8-under 272 was only good enough for a tie for 29th. Three players finished 8-under and seven players finished 9-under, so Reed was a couple shots away from a top-15. He was 26th in 2014 at 5-under. Reed has three straight top-20 finishes, including a top-five at the Travelers Championship two weeks ago and a 17th last week at the Quicken Loans National.
Bill Haas checks in at +1600 this week. Haas lost in a three-way playoff in 2011 to finish second and has one other top-10 finish, which happened back in 2013 when he was ninth. Haas missed the cut at even par two years ago with a 66 on Thursday and a 74 on Friday. Haas has been swinging it well of late. Since missing the PLAYERS Championship cut at TPC Sawgrass, he’s finished 12th, 25th, fifth, and 13th, with that fifth-place finish coming on the tough track at Erin Hills in the U.S. Open. It’s hard to argue with his recent form and he has one of the stronger sets of results at this event since its inception.
David Lingmerth might be a popular pick this week at +2000 after his close call last week at the Quicken Loans National, but he’s a tough sell. Lingmerth led heading into Sunday, but fired his second straight 73. Lingmerth was the only player in the field with a win at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm from his days on the Web.com Tour. He shot 65-65, but couldn’t seal the deal. It was his fifth-straight top-30 finish and third top-15 finish, but that’s a tough loss to get over.
The most notable names in the field definitely have a good shot this week. Phil Mickelson is lined at +2200 and will tee it up without Bones for the first time. Mickelson’s brother will be on the bag this week, but this is a course that Lefty knows well. He hasn’t played this event since 2013, but Mickelson owns a summer home on the grounds and has certainly taken his fair share of swings here. Similarly, Bubba Watson also owns a place here and he’s been a huge contributor to the relief and recovery efforts in the area after last year’s devastating flooding. Watson is +3000 this week to take the title. Watson has three starts here and hasn’t had a round of 70 or higher, but hasn’t been able to put up those mid-60s that move you up the leaderboard. This could be that time.
Charles Howell III is playing some fine golf right now. CH3 is priced at +4000 this week. Howell hasn’t played bad here, but he hasn’t played all that well, either, with a lot of rounds and tournaments around even par. The Georgia native has made 15 of 16 cuts this season and just came up short last week in the playoff against Kyle Stanley. If he can ride a little bit of that momentum to shave a couple strokes off of each round, he’ll be right in the thick of things on Sunday.
There is a little bit of extra motivation on the line for some players this week. Those that have not qualified for The Open Championship at Royal Birkdale have a chance to get in. The top 12 finishers that aren’t already in will have the opportunity to grab as many as four berths in that field. That creates some good opportunities to play on guys that currently aren’t in like Jason Kokrak, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Keegan Bradley, Kevin Streelman, and reigning champion Danny Lee.
Coverage of the 2017 Greenbrier Classic will be on Golf Channel and CBS.
DFS Picks: The 2017 Greenbrier Classic
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
After Mother Nature’s fury canceled the 2016 Greenbrier Classic, the golf world turns its eyes to the renovated and better than ever TPC Old White in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia for the 2017 Greenbrier Classic. Unfortunately, sitting three weeks after the US Open and two weeks before The Open Championship, this event doesn’t get a great field, but four spots at Royal Birkdale are up for grabs this week, so this should be a hotly-contested tournament.
We’ll try to help you with your daily fantasy golf choices by looking for the top values. Everybody can take the top guys and hope for the best, but it’s often that low-cost missing piece that makes all the difference in your GPPs, 50/50s, or H2H matchups.
New to daily fantasy sports? Need to reload? DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from BangTheBook Radio on Wednesdays with our resident golf betting expert Wes Reynolds, who outlines players to take a chance on for this weekend’s event. Also, we have golf previews for the PGA event each week.
Value Picks
Tony Finau ($9,100) – Normally we like to go a little bit lower than this price tag, but Tony Finau might be the best player in the field without a spot in The Open Championship field. You can bet that he doesn’t want to be idle or playing in the Barbasol Championship in two weeks. Finau finished tied for 13th here two years ago at 10-under, just two shots back from a top-five finish. This is a 7,300-yard par 70, so guys with some length can have some success here. That 2015 performance is the only course data we have from Finau, but it’s a good starting point. He has made five straight cuts and has two top-20 finishes and four top-30 finishes in that span.
Xander Schauffele ($7,900) – Xander Schauffele has been coming on pretty strong of late. The 23-year-old San Diego native played well enough at Erin Hills to earn himself an exemption for next year’s US Open. He was fifth at Erin Hills and followed that up with a 14th at the Travelers. He finished 35th last week, but did go 70-68 over the weekend to slide up the board a little bit and earn a little more money for his efforts. Schauffele has made five straight cuts and seems to be gaining confidence each week. After getting into the US Open and securing an exemption for next season, you can bet he wants a crack at The Open Championship.
Gary Woodland ($7,500) – Gary Woodland already has a spot at Royal Birkdale in two weeks, but he wants to grab a victory here. He didn’t play this event in 2015 and finished 72nd in 2014 thanks to a final round 75. That fate was eerily reminiscent of his 2013 performance, when Woodland hit Sunday at 7-under and then shot a 77 to give it all back. The winning score that year was 13-under, so Woodland may not have taken down the tournament, but he went from a likely top-five to a 62nd. If he can avoid the Sunday landmine, he’ll be a good buy this week.
Braden Thornberry ($6,900) – We’ve seen some amateurs and recent college champions put together some great tournaments recently. Braden Thornberry was one of them. Thornberry’s $241,000 pay day at the FedEx St. Jude Classic had to be forfeited so he could keep his amateur status to play in college, but he opened some eyes with a seriously strong performance at TPC Southwind. Thornberry shot a 71-69-67-65 to finish fourth. He shined with the flatstick and starred as a scrambler since his driver was a little bit erratic. Old White TPC is tree-lined, but making putts is a big deal on this course, so Thornberry has a shot to make some noise.
Ted Potter ($7,200) – Some guys just have courses that work for them. We’re paying an inflated price on Ted Potter Jr. this week, but it’s probably what he deserves. Potter’s only PGA Tour event this season has been the US Open, which he gained entry to from winning a sectional qualifier. He missed the cut. Potter didn’t play this event in 2015, but he gains entry as a past champion back in 2012. He was 26th in 2014, sixth in 2013, and had a dramatic playoff win over Troy Kelly on Hole #75 in 2012. Potter shot 64-64 over the weekend to win. As far as course form and past results go, Potter is your guy.