Arkansas Derby Preview
By Anthony Stabile
Vegasinsider.com
Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 141 on May 2nd at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. In the coming weeks, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years Run for the Roses, culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports.
Anthony's Eleven
Rank Horse Jockey Trainer Next Race Derby Points
1 Mubtaahij Christopher Soumillon Mike de Kock Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 100
2 Frosted Joel Rosario Kiaran McLaughlin Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 113
3 Far Right Mike Smith Ron Moquett Arkansas Derby (4/11 at OP) 22
4 Dortmund Martin Garcia Bob Baffert Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 170
5 International Star Miguel Mena Mike Maker Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 171
6 Carpe Diem John Velazquez Todd Pletcher Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 164
7 Firing Line Gary Stevens Simon Callaghan Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 58
8 Upstart Jose Ortz Rick Violette, Jr. Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 76
9 El Kabeir Undecided John Terranova, III Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 95
10 War Story Joe Talamo Tom Amoss Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 44
11 Frammento Undecided Nick Zito Kentucky Derby (5/2 at CD) 20
The G1 Arkansas Derby going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt, the last button on Murphy’s coat when it comes to the 100 point Kentucky Derby prep races, highlights the action this Saturday down at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas. American Pharoah has been installed as the prohibitive 1-2 morning line favorite in the field of 8 and could stamp himself the favorite for the Run for the Roses with a victory.
Trained by Bob Baffert, American Pharoah won two of his three starts as a juvenile, including the G1 Del Mar Futurity and G1 Front Runner, which was good enough to name him the Eclipse Award winner as champion Two-Year-Old.
This year, American Pharoah has raced just once, taking the G2 Rebel over a sloppy Oaklawn surface in gate-to-wire fashion by 6 ¼ lengths under regular rider Victor Espinoza, his first start in over five months.
American Pharoah, who’ll break from post 6, has actually led every step of the way in all three of his scores but there is speculation that he will be taken off the pace in an attempt to rate, thus making him a more powerful threat in Louisville. That speculation was further fueled when his owner, Zayat Stables, entered the speedy Mr. Z in here.
From the barn of D. Wayne Lukas, Mr. Z has danced nearly every dance since breaking his maiden in his late June debut at Churchill Downs. He’s hit the board in seven of those ten starts but hasn’t had his picture taken since. Last out, he stalked the early pace in the G2 Louisiana Derby but faltered terribly through the stretch and was beaten over 20 lengths. He’ll put the blinkers back on for this and will have Ramon Vazquez in the saddle from post 2.
Perhaps American Pharoah’s biggest challenge will come from the G3 Southwest winner, Far Right. Trained by Ron Moquett, Far Right started his career with five races around one turn, met with mixed results, before finishing a troubled trip/terrible ride third in the G3 Delta Jackpot last November.
Moquett switched riders to Mike Smith for his first start of the season, the Smarty Jones, and Smith rewarded the conditioner with a flawless ride that resulted in a 1 ¾ length tally. Smith gave Far Right an even better ride in the Southwest, weaving through traffic and diving to the inside to get up by ¾ of a length in the final stages. Far Right will break from post 7.
Madefromlucky will try the champ again after a runner-up finish in the Rebel for Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez. Madefromlucky when his two prior starts at Gulfstream and didn’t appear, to me anyway, to like the wet track last out. He’ll get a dry track here and will break from post 4.
Trainer Ken McPeek will add blinkers to his charge, The Truth Or Else as he makes his third start off of a three month layoff from the rail with Calvin Borel. The Truth Or Else made a prolonged bid to the lead before getting rundown late in the Southwest then flattened out when Borel asked him for Run in the rebel where he finished fourth.
Like Madefromlucky, I’m not too certain Bold Conquest liked the sloppy tracks he’s encountered in his last pair for Steve Asmussen. After a third place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity last October at Keeneland, Bold Conquest returned with a fourth place finish in the Southwest then grabbed the show dough after encountering some trouble on the first turn in the Rebel. Ricardo Santana, Jr. rides from post 5.
Bridget’s Big Luvy added blinkers and led the Private Terms at Laurel every step of the way at this distance last out when trainer Jeremiah Englehart added blinkers. Both of his career wins have come on wet tracks while he is winless in a pair of fast track tries. Angel Cruz rides from post 3.
George Papaprodromou will saddle longshot maiden Win the Space, a California shipper with Kent Desormeaux in the saddle. He’ll shed blinkers while making his first start around two turns and against stakes company from post 8.
Finally, a quick note about the G3 Coolmore Lexington, going 1 1/16 miles on the main track, at Keeneland. Worth just 10 Derby points to the winner, it’s highly unlikely this race will have any impact on the Kentucky Derby, but recent maiden winner Donworth is one to keep an eye on. He overcame a tough trip to win going seven furlongs, one of the toughest things to do, in his unveiling and could be a Preakness or Belmont player for trainer Graham Motion. He faces just six others with Joel Rosario aboard.
Prep Play of the Day
Got split in the Santa Anita Derby but hit Frosted in the Wood Memorial to get even Steven last Saturday. In the Arkansas Derby, let’s try to beat American Pharoah. Make a $1 trifecta part-wheel using Far Right over The Truth Or Else, Madefromlucky, Bold Conquest and American Pharoah over all of the horses. Total cost is $24.
At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com
It is last call for Kentucky Derby hopefuls, with the last major Derby points race on tap at Oaklawn Park, the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1).
The race is worth 100-40-20-10 points to the top four finishers, meaning the top pair would be assured a starting spot in the gate on the first Saturday of May.
American Pharoah is the 1-2 morning line favorite and already has stamped his ticket to Churchill Downs thanks to his win in the Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 14. The Bob Baffert trainee is currently the 4-1 betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby at Sportsbook.ag.
He faces a couple of talented runners in Far Right and Madefromlucky, but I just don’t see him losing on Saturday afternoon.
That would be good news for horses on or near the bubble to get into the Kentucky Derby field. Except for Far Right, who is sitting with 23 points which is good for 23rd in the points standings. The colt does not need to win, as a second or third would likely get him into the Derby field.
The colt is proven over the Oaklawn Park main track, having won the Smarty Jones and Southwest (G3). He is currently 28-1 in early Kentucky Derby betting.
The $250,000 Coolmore Lexington (G3) offers up 10-4-2-1 Derby points but that likely will not be enough for the winner to get into the field on the first Saturday of May.
Only two runners in the field have earned points toward entry into the Run for the Roses. Divining Rod has 10, and Tiznow R J has earned seven, but even picking up 10 more points for a win the Lexington will not be enough to crack the top 20.
The Lexington along with the $300,000 Jenny Wiley (G1) will be broadcast live as part of the Jockey Club Tour on Fox at 4:30 ET on Saturday on Fox Sports 1.
My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my strongest plays from Aqueduct, Keeneland and Oaklawn Park.
To purchase my Aqueduct, Keeneland and Best Plays Reports Report for Saturday click here.
Here is today’s opening race from Keeneland to get the day off to a good start:
KEE Race 1 Clm $25,000 (12:35 ET)
4 Whatthecatdrugin 3-1
3 Out of Patience 3-1
6 Happy Fella 2-1
1 Dad Are We Here 5-2
Analysis: Whatthecatdrugin returns off a two month break and makes his first start for the Lovell barn that is 24% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. The gelding is coming off a game second last out against $10,000 starter optional claimers. The gelding has won 15 times in just 46 career starts and owns a solid pace profile throughout. He looks as if he fits here tagged for $25,000.
Out of Patience checked in fifth last out against $25,000 starter optional claimers on the grass at Fair Grounds. The colt was claimed for the third time in a row, today going for the Glyshaw barn that is 14% winners first off the claim. Two of his three wins have come on turf but he does have a win and a second in three trips over a fast dirt surface.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 3,4,6
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 The Top Flight Hcp G3 (4:57 ET)
3 Joint Return 8-1
2 House Rules 6-5
4 Got Lucky 4-1
6 Shayjolie 12-1
Analysis: Joint Return makes her first start since last September for the Servis barn that is 3 for his last 12 (25% with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff. The filly won 4 of 9 last year with a couple of seconds and ran a game second in the Alabama (G1) at the Spa. She can handle the distance and should be tight off works at Palm Meadows and then a one-mile morning drill at Philly.
House Rules was bumped coming out of the gate, stalked the early pace and could not get to Sheer Drama who opened up a clear lead heading for home in the Royal Delta (G2). Two back going a one turn mile the filly won the Rampart (G3) and earned a career top speed fig in that outing. She has a win at nine furlongs and missed winning the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) last year at nine furlongs in a photo.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,4,6
TRI: 2,3 / 2,3,4,6 / 1,2,3,4,6
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:
KEE Race 10 The Coolmore Lexington G3 (5:18 ET)
2 Comfort 5-1
1 Divining Rod 3-1
4 Tiznow R J 5-1
6 Fame and Power 5-2
Analysis: Comfort returns off a two-month break and makes his first start for the Todd Pletcher barn, the connections purchasing this colt privately after his maiden score at Fair Grounds in his first start on dirt. The colt raced on grass in his first two career outings, a couple of fourth place finishes. Pletcher is 24% winners with newcomers to the barn and this colt still appears to have plenty of upside. He should get a good trip sitting off what could be a lively early pace.
Divining Rod was beaten just a neck two back in the Sam F. Davis (G3), five lengths clear of the rest of the field. The colt regressed last out in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) where he dueled for the early lead and weakened in the stretch to finish third. The winner Carpe Diem came back to win the Toyota Blue Grass (G1) in his next start last Saturday at Keeneland. The main concern is that there is plenty of early speed in here and his price may end up on the light side.
Tiznow R J ran a decent third in the LeComte (G3) in his stakes debut but was not able to run back to that effort in his last two starts, a seventh in the Risen Star (G2) and a distant fourth in the Sunland Derby (G3). He faces a bit easier group here.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,4,6
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,4,6 / 1,2,4,6,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Oaklawn Park:
OP Race 7 The Oaklawn Hcp G2 (3:56 CT)
3 Tapiture 9-2
1 Race Day 5-2
7 Hard Aces 6-1
5 Golden Lad 7-2
Analysis: Tapiture did not fire last out in the razorback (G3) where he was beaten 10 1/4 lengths by our second choice, but the effort was his first go off a 4 1/2 month break and he caught an off track. The Asmussen trainee is better than that and expecting to see this guy bounce back with a much better effort here. The barn is 23% winners with runners making the second start off a 45-180 day layoff. He landed in the exacta in 6 of 8 trips last year and ended his season with three straight triple digit Beyers.
Race Day was a game winner of the Razorback over Midnight Hawk by a neck for his first stakes win. He makes his third start of his current form cycle and is the logical one to beat here for Pletcher. The main knock is going to be the price, which may dip below his 5-2 morning line.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,5,7
TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,5,7 / 1,3,4,5,7
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Keeneland
R4: #6 Radiator 15-1
R7: #7 Believe in Charlie 15-1
R7: #1 Richies Party Girl 8-1
R8: #1 Seagrass 10-1
R9: #1 Personal Diary 10-1
R11: #4 Indebted 8-1