Wood, BG, SA Derby Previews
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com
Three more 100 point Kentucky Derby prep races are on tap this Saturday, one week after Materiality, International Star and the new top dog on “Anthony’s Eleven,” Mubtaahij punched their tickets to Louisville with wins in the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby and UAE Derby, respectively.
And while I doubt any one of those three from last week will go off as the chalk just four weeks from now at Churchill Downs, there is a pretty good chance, especially if the morning line proves true in either the G1 Blue Grass or G1 Santa Anita Derby, that the Kentucky Derby favorite is running this Saturday.
Oddly enough, we’ll start this weeks’ action in New York with the race that probably won’t produce the Derby favorite, the G1 Wood Memorial going 1 1/8 miles over the Aqueduct main track. Only seven will run, as Far From Over was forced to withdraw with an injury, while others, like Upstart, opted for another prep race.
Trainer Todd Pletcher may have lost Far From Over but he may still saddle the favorite in Daredevil. Daredevil won the first two starts of his career, including the G1 Champagne, over wet tracks before running poorly in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, his first try around two turns and over a dry course.
Daredevil resurfaced some four months later in the G2 Swale going seven furlongs at Gulfstream. Breaking from the rail under regular rider Javier Castellano, Daredevil was taken off the pace and raced wide on the turn but failed to make any impact late, finishing an even second as the 3-5 favorite. He’ll break from post 6.
Like Daredevil, Frosted ships up from Florida for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and comes into this off one of the most mind-boggling efforts I’ve ever seen on a racetrack. After finishing second in the G3 Holy Bull to start the season, Frosted was entered in the G2 Fountain of Youth, sporting blinkers for the first time.
Frosted broke alertly, was forwardly placed throughout and made the lead approaching the far turn with the utmost of ease and looked ready to win for fun. But once the field straightened for the wire, Frosted stopped like he was hit with a baseball bat under Irad Ortiz, Jr. and settled for fourth. In the days and weeks after the race, McLaughlin still hasn’t been able to offer up any excuse for the effort but has trained Frosted aggressively and makes a rider switch to Joel Rosario. He’ll break from post 4.
El Kabeir has called the Big Apple home the entire winter and will look to defend his turf while coming off what was arguably his most impressive effort to date in the G3 Gotham last out, when he came from well off the pace to win by 2 ¾ lengths for trainer John Terranova, III.
After winning the G2 KJC at Churchill on the front end in his final start of last season, El Kabeir rated just off the pace in his G3 Jerome score before fading to second as the 1-2 chalk in the G3 Withers two back when he got cooked up in a mid-race pace battle. As he has all year, Chuckie Lopez will ride from post 5.
Gotham runner-up Tiz Shea D attended a quick pace throughout in his latest, his first over a wet track, around two turns and for his new connections, including trainer Bill Mott, and battled nicely along the inside to regain place money in just the second start of his career. Tiz Shea D broke his maiden easily in a Parx sprint back in February. Manny Franco rides for the first time from the rail.
Toasting Master set the pace in the Gotham for trainer Dale Romans before fading through the stretch to finish fourth. Two starts back, it was the same story in a Florida bred stakes over the Polytrack at the Ocala Training Center. Angel Arroyo has the return call from post 2.
New York bred Tencendur took a ton of action off of a fourth place finish in the Withers when adding blinkers in the Gotham from post 9. He raced wide throughout without ever seriously contending before finishing fifth. He’ll try again from post 7 for trainer George Weaver and new rider Jose Ortiz.
Lieutenant Colonel had a bit of trouble at the break in the Gotham but I doubt it was the main reason he finished last of ten in his only start other than his debut tally going a mile at Gulfstream for Chad Brown. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides from post 3.
Pletcher will certainly saddle the favorite in the Blue Grass at Keeneland as Carpe Diem is even money on the morning line against seven others going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. This will be the first time the Blue Grass is run four weeks out from the Kentucky Derby.
Carpe Diem returns to the scene of his biggest triumph, having easily taken the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall after his debut tally and before his second place finish in the Juvenile, a race in which he looked like he’d be off the board before rallying in the stretch.
Like Daredevil, Carpe Diem was given a four month break and returned in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. Carpe Diem sat a couple of lengths off of the early pace and made the lead as he pleased before cruising to a five length score under his regular pilot John Velazquez, who’ll guide him from post 5.
Classy Class ships in off of a pair of third place finishes in the Withers and Gotham for McLaughlin with Junior Alvarado in the saddle. Winless since his debut victory, Classy Class was up against a pair of biases in the G2 Remsen last year and in the Withers this year then was given a brutal ride by Alvarado last out, first allowing El Kabeir to get inside position on him, then getting steadied a couple of times on the far turn. He’ll break from post 7 and needs to fire his best shot if he is to take down the favorite.
Two time Kentucky Derby winner Nick Zito ships in Frammento from Florida, hoping this colt can prove worthy of a chance to run for the roses. Frammento, whose lone win in six tries came over this track, added blinkers last out and was the only one making up any ground when third in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Gary Stevens rides for the first time from post 6.
Ocho Ocho Ocho suffered the first loss of his career when returning from a three month layoff in the G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita last out when he encountered some traffic in the early going, suffering some superficial cuts to his legs in the process. Last year, Ocho Ocho Ocho won all three starts, including the G3 Delta Jackpot for trainer Jim Cassidy. He’ll break from the rail with Santiago Gonzalez.
Mark Casse’s Danzig Moon went into the Tampa Bay Derby with a ton of buzz after an impressive maiden score in his first start of the year but never fired, finishing a non-threatening fourth. Julien Leparoux rides from post 8.
Gorgeous Bird had his two race win streak snapped when he tried two turns and stepped up into stakes company in the Fountain of Youth most recently when he finished fifth for Ian Wilkes. He’ll be reunited with B.J. Hernandez, his rider as a juvenile, for this. He’ll break from post 4.
Pepper Roani added blinkers two starts back and broke his maiden in the sixth start of his career then finished second in the Battaglia Memorial over the Turfway Polytrack for Mike Mena. He’ll break from post 3 with Miguel Mena. Unrivaled won his last pair by daylight at Parx for trainer Marya Montoya and gets a rider change to Robby Albarado from post 2.
Out in California, the undefeated Dortmund leads a field of six in the G1 Santa Anita Derby going 1 1/8 miles on the main track for Bob Baffert, who’ll also send out One Lucky Dane.
After coming from just off the pace in his three juvenile victories, jockey Martin Garcia has kept Dortmund in the game more as a sophomore. He alternated on the lead through most of his gutsy score in the G3 Robert Lewis then went gate-to-wire last out in the G2 San Felipe. It’ll be interesting to see what Garcia does from his rail draw in here.
One Lucky Dane broke his maiden in the third start of his career, his first on dirt, and was so impressive that Baffert ran him back in the Juvenile where he finished sixth. In his lone start this year, a little over two weeks ago, he won an allowance/optional claimer by nearly 10 lengths. Rafael Bejarano returns from post 2.
The second and third place finishers from the San Felipe, Prospect Park and Bolo, are back for another crack at Dortmund and will likely take two different approaches to beating him.
Trained by Clifford Sise, Jr., Prospect Park came from off the pace last out to grab the place money from Bolo but still finished 1 ¼ lengths behind the winner. His rider, Kent Desormeaux, admitted after the race that he tried to “hide” from Dortmund, knowing his penchant for responding favorably to a tussle. He’ll break from post 5.
Bolo, on the other hand, took the fight to Dortmund on the far turn and stayed with him to deep stretch before tiring ever so slightly in the final sixteenth for trainer Carla Gaines. It was Bolo’s first start in nine weeks and first on dirt as he won two of his three starts last year, including the Eddie Logan, on the grass. Mike Smith rides from post 4.
Jerry Hollendorfer sends out Cross the Line, runner-up in the G3 El Camino Real Derby over the synthetic surface at Golden Gate Fields last out. In fact, Cross the Line has made all five of his career starts at that northern California track, including his win in the California Derby two back. Juan Hernandez rides from post 3.
Bad Read Sanchez returns from an eight month layoff for trainer Doug O’Neill and Mario Gutierrez from post 6. Bad Read Sanchez broke his maiden here in his debut then finished second in a minor stakes at Los Alamitos before finishing third in the G3 Best Pal over the synthetic surface at Del Mar.
Prep Play of the Day
Last week we hit the saver exacta in the Florida Derby and got split in the Louisiana Derby. Dems da breaks. This week, bet $40 to win on Frosted in the Wood Memorial and make a $30 exacta using Dortmund over Bolo in the Santa Anita Derby. Total cost is $70. Good luck!!!!
Bankroll: Minus $58
A look at Saturday's Derby preps
By The Wizard
There are 21 3-year-olds that will run in Saturday’s three Kentucky Derby prep races. Only three – Frosted in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, Classy Class in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, and Cross the Line in the Santa Anita Derby – have raced at 1 1/8 miles. All three were defeated. In these Derby preps, the Wizard is searching for clues about a horse’s ability to handle 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May. Distance limitation is a common denominator among many of this year’s 3-year-olds.
Wood Memorial
DAREDEVIL will be the favorite with EL KABEIR the second choice. Daredevil’s second-place finish in the Grade 2 Swale at Gulfstream at seven furlongs off a four-month layoff was a good sharpener for the Wood. Daredevil has yet to win around two turns. Both his victories have been on wet tracks. With rain expected in New York on Friday evening and ending Saturday morning, it is unlikely the track will be wet by post time for the Wood, which could make Daredevil a bit vulnerable.
El Kabeir showed a new dimension winning the Gotham closing from further back than in his prior seven starts. The fact that he can be placed anywhere during the running and has more wins (four) than any of his opposition certainly makes him formidable. My concern with El Kabeir is his ability to be as effective stretching out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time. I am not certain how good he really is following three races this winter on the inner track at Aqeuduct, facing less than stellar fields.
FROSTED looked odds-on to win the Fountain of Youth on Feb. 21 turning for home, but flattened out in the final eighth-mile after setting the pace for a good part of his journey. The fractions were faster than they initially appeared to be. Frosted has better form on the Aqueduct main track than any of his opposition. The fact that he was narrowly defeated in last year’s Remson over this course and distance suggests that he has every right to improve Saturday, especially returning to rating tactics.
LIEUTENANT COLONEL was eliminated at the start in the Gotham. He appears to be the most interesting of the longshots in the field.
The Wizard finds it difficult to latch on to any one horse to “key” on in the Wood. Instead, I will use this race as part of the $500,000-guaranteed all-graded stakes pick four (Races 8-11). This wager can be found on my Aqueduct Betting Window and the Simulcast Best Bets Sheet.
Santa Anita Derby
It’s very difficult to knock the credentials of the heavy favorite DORTMUND, who is undefeated in five career starts and is 3 for 3 over the Santa Anita dirt surface. Dortmund is making his first start at 1 1/8 miles, but based on his physical attributes and the manner in which he rates so comfortably, he should not have any issues handling the distance and farther. He is more a one-paced runner, who distributes his speed evenly, than a horse who is agile and has a quick turn of foot. In small fields his tactical speed helps him avoid trouble. In fields like the Kentucky Derby with 20 horses, traffic troubles could compromise his chances. Facing five rivals in the Santa Anita Derby gives Dortmund the upper hand.
PROSPECT PARK and BOLO, who finished second and third behind Dortmund in the San Felipe, obviously pose the biggest dangers. From a wagering standpoint, the Santa Anita Derby is pass race but it does offer a potential key horse in the late pick four.
Blue Grass
CARPE DIEM will go off the shortest price of the morning-line favorites in the three Kentucky Derby preps. There is quite a drop off between him and the quality of his opposition. Carpe Diem’s five-length victory in the Tampa Bay Derby in his first start as a 3-year-old, which came off four-month layoff, was very impressive. That sets him up well for a victory in the Blue Grass. His lone defeat was a second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Carpe Diem won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity last fall in his only start at Keeneland. His tactical speed will allow jockey John Velazquez to place him wherever he wants early on.
Of the three Kentucky Derby preps, the Blue Grass is the only race that offers a decent wagering opportunity, even though Carpe Diem will be odds-on. I am attracted to both the exactas and trifectas in the Blue Grass. The odds on the other seven runners will be well spread out. I feel that OCHO OCHO OCHO will improve on his eighth-place finish in the San Felipe with a more alert start, and CLASSY CLASS will benefit from being back on a dry surface and being more forwardly placed early in the race.
My suggested wagers are:
Exactas (5) CARPE DIEM over (1) OCHO OCHO OCHO and (7) CLASSY CLASS, reverse both for one-fourth as much
Trifecta 5 over 1-7 over ALL = $24 for a $2 wager
Trifecta 5 over ALL over 1-7 = $12 for a $1 wager