Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 4/17/20
April 17, 2020
By Mike Dempsey
We have a good 10-race card at Gulfstream Park on Friday with plenty of large fields and betting opportunities and believe it or not we have a Grade 1 race on tap on Saturday.
Since the Coronavirus crisis started most tracks have closed, and along with it most of the top races have been postponed, but on Saturday we have a full field of 14 that will line up in the $600,0)0 Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn Park.
The race is for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles and drew a deep and talented group of ladies led by the D. Wayne Lukas trained Come Dancing, the 3-1 morning line favorite.
The mare makes her first start since a dud in a sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) last November at Santa Anita. She came into that race off wins in the Ballerina (G1) and Gallant Bloom Handicap (G2).
Her rivals will include Serengeti Princess (4-1), who won the Azeri (G2) in the slop in gate to wire fashion at Oaklawn Park and Ce Ce, who won the Beholder Mile (G1) at Santa Anita on March 14.
I will have my selections and analysis for the race in tomorrow’s column. Saturday’s action will be on FS1 from 1:30 to 7:00 ET.
Horseplayers can stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.
Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
GP Race 1 Md $16,000 (1:00 ET)
#6 Flowzano 7-2
#10 Harmonic Thunder 5-2
#9 Wonder Blondy 12-1
#3 Businessindubai 15-1
#11 Halfy 9-2
Analysis: Flowzano stalked the early pace from the outside and weakened to finish sixth last out on the main track for a $50,000 tag. The winner Sweet Mia came back to bat state bred Alw-1 optional claimers in her next outing on Feb. 9. Blinkers are added while she drops in for $16,000 and tries turf for the first time here. She is by Verrazano out of an Indian Charlie mare that has dropped three winners including one turf winner.
Harmonic Thunder returns to turf last out after a fifth on dirt and she made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out, beaten 1 1/2 lengths for the top spot. She appears to be rounding into good form for the Joseph barn and picks up the hot riding Gaffalione. The drop in for $16,00 woke her up and she has found the right level. She is the first foal to race out of a Distorted Humor mare.
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 8 OClm $50,000N1X (4:46 ET)
#3 Poseidon's Passion 8-1
#4 Jades Gelly 5-2
#5 Shippy 7-2
#2 Envied 6-1
#8 Mrs. Maisel 10-1
Analysis: Poseidon's Passion acted up in the post parade and got loose briefly. The filly was caught in tight quarters coming out of the gate, tracked the early pace and finished gamely to beat Alw-1 optional claimers at Tampa Bay Downs off a four-month break and in her first start against winners. She graduated on the main track last fall at Keeneland in her third career start. She should be tighter second off the bench and looks as if she still has some upside making just her second start on turf. Decent value if she goes off near her 8-1 morning line.
Jades Gelly tracked the early pace while saving ground and finished well to get up and graduate for a $50,000 tag last out here in her first start for Navarro, who claimed her off of the Ward barn. Ward dipped back in and took her back and now she returns off a three month break here and takes the blinkers back off. It will be interesting to see these how these former Navarro runners perform over the next few months while the Juice Man awaits his trial. Two back while in the Ward barn she was a good second behind repeat winner Min It to Win It, who beat Alw-1 optional claimers in her next outing on Jan. 24 here.
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Gulfstream Park
R1: #9 Wonder Blondy 12-1
R1: #3 Businessindubai 15-1
R3: #5 Differential 8-1
R4: #10 Zandrea’s 12-1
R5: #8 Polished Copper 10-1
R6: #1 Tiz Mischief 12-1
R8: #3 Poseidons Passion 8-1
R9: #3 Noon Time Gem 12-1
R10: #9 Eagle’s Palace 15-1
Friday's Best Bet: Choctaw Charlie can earn diploma in Rainbow Miss
By Jarrod Horak
April 16, 2020
Friday’s 5th race from Oaklawn Park is the $100,000 Rainbow Miss Stakes for Arkansas-bred 3-year-old fillies dashing six furlongs on the main track (Post Time - 4:06 p.m. ET).
#5 Choctaw Charlie (7-2) was on the wrong end of the photo in both maiden sprints, and she earned an improved number as the chalk March 28. Joel Rosario rides the promising maiden and she should be in the hunt throughout.
#8 Sekani (3-1) wants to get out there early, and she should be able to do just that from the outside post. There does not seem to be a ton of pace in this race.
#6 Proud Victoria (5-2) captured her first two starts from off the pace. She ended up 4th in a local state bred stakes affair Feb. 22, and the 2nd and 3rd place finishers were next-out winners. She needs pace help.
#2 The Mary Rose (3-1) fired in two of her five starts, and she was up on the pace in her two good efforts. Martin Garcia strings along and she can contend if she gets into the race early.
Wagers:
#5 to win
Exacta Box 5-8
Trifecta 5-8/2-5-6-8/2-5-6-8
Recent Best Bet Winners
April 4 - KIMARI ($7.80), Exacta ($23.80)
April 6 - WHOLEHEARTED ($6.40)
April 11 - PROVERB ($7.60), Exacta ($33.60), Trifecta ($48.70)
April 15 - Blue Harbor/Mr. Tickle/Yo Y Me Trifecta ($127.50)
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park
PURCHASE
Remington Park - Race 7
Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) (.50 Cent Minimum) Pick 4 (Races 7-8-9-10) (.50 Cent Minimum)
Maiden Claiming $15,000 • 330 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 61 • Purse: $10,200 • Post: 8:42P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * MISTER LIGHTINWAGON: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. CLASSIC CORONADO: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
5
CLASSIC CORONADO
15/1
7/1
1
MISTER LIGHTINWAGON
5/1
7/1
4
BIG DADDY MAGIC
4/1
9/1
3
MASTER OVER GONE
10/1
9/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
2
IDA STORY
2
3/1
Average
0
0
6.0
0.0
0.0
8
DF FABULOUS SIGN
8
8/1
Slow/Trouble-prone
0
0
8.2
0.0
0.0
10
CANDY FROM MIA
10
12/1
Slow/Trouble-prone
0
0
6.4
0.0
0.0
Unknown Running Style: MISTER LIGHTINWAGON (5/1) [Jockey: Valles Jr Gonzalo R - Trainer: Ruiz Carlos], MASTER OVER GONE (10/1) [Jockey: Baca Benito Jude - Trainer: Willis Kasey], BIG DADDY MAGIC (4/1) [Jockey: Valenzuela Raul A - Trainer: Stinebaugh
__________________
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE
Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 4
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager) $1 Pick Three / $1 Daily Double
Claiming $2,500 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $7,000 • Post: 7:24P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 17 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500 (MAIDEN RACES AND RACES FOR $2,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Lone Trailer. LAKE SHOW is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * HOSS CARTWRIGHT: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rat ing at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SANTALUZ DREAMIN: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. H orse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ZINZAN: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
6
HOSS CARTWRIGHT
2/1
4/1
8
SANTALUZ DREAMIN
4/1
9/2
3
ZINZAN
3/1
5/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
3
ZINZAN
3
3/1
Front-runner
67
70
83.5
65.3
61.3
6
HOSS CARTWRIGHT
6
2/1
Front-runner
83
75
76.8
68.0
60.5
4
BRAVE COURT
4
20/1
Front-runner
49
60
57.0
48.4
31.4
8
SANTALUZ DREAMIN
8
4/1
Stalker
66
78
71.1
73.9
68.4
2
HEAT THINGS UP
2
6/1
Alternator/Stalker
69
65
59.2
61.8
51.8
7
PIVO
7
5/1
Alternator/Stalker
69
68
43.1
48.4
39.4
9
LAKE SHOW
9
15/1
Trailer
79
60
17.8
54.4
44.9
5
SIERRA ECHO
5
20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
77
57
55.0
54.8
41.3
1
DARING WAYS
1
20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
53
48
15.3
48.4
34.4
__________________