Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 4/23/20
Horse Races Today: Thursday's Gulfstream Park Analysis & Odds
April 22, 2020
By Mike Dempsey
We are back at Gulfstream Park on Thursday with a really tough 10-race card with plenty of large fields and good betting opportunities.
Stakes racing has been a rare commodity over the past month, but we have a couple of stakes on Saturday’s card at Oaklawn Park and one at Gulfstream Park and we have a few familiar faces in action.
The $125,00 Carousel at Oaklawn Park drew a field of eight fillies and mares including a pair of Grade 1 winners in Bellafina and Mia Mischief.
Bellafina won last year’s Santa Anita Oaks (G1) and was a game second in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1).
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Mia Mischief won the Humana Distaff (G1) last May at Churchill Downs and has run well at Oaklawn Park, landing in the exacta in all five trips.
The co-feature on Saturday is the $100,000 Bachelor for three-year-olds which drew a field of nine including the Bob Baffert trained Eight Rings. The colt won the American Pharoah (G1) last fall and then was a disappointing sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).
The feature on Saturday at Gulfstream Park is the $75,000 Unbridled for three-year-olds. A field of seven will go 1 1/16 miles on the main track.
I will have my selections and analysis for all of the stakes in Saturday’s Best Plays Report.
Horseplayers can stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.
Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
Gulfstream Park Race 1 Analysis - 4/23
GP Race 1 Md $12,500 (1:00 ET)
#10 Laska 3-1
#9 Princesa Crystal 4-1
#5 Amber Princess 8-1
#8 Delia's Pride 10-1
Analysis: Laska comes in here off a sixth-place finish last out against $25,000 foes. The filly stalked the early pace and lost her momentum when having to steady in behind foes at the furlong marker. She showed some late run two and three back, a game second three back here beaten just a half-length. She drops into an easier spot her tagged for $12,500 and just needs a trip. She is out of the turf stakes winner Emerald Beech who has dropped one other foals to race, no winners to date. The Matz trainee looks tough in this spot as the likely favorite.
Princesa Crystal raced near the back of the pack early and finished evenly in a fifth-place finish, beaten three lengths last out against $16,000 foes going a mile. She has come up short a dozen times now, her best effort a neck loss three back against $16,000 maiden claimers here at a mile. She has come from out of it in her last few starts but has shown some tactical speed in earlier races and she figures to be closer to the pace in this spot. She has three sibs that have won on turf.
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
Gulfstream Park Featured Race of the Day - 4/23
GP Race 8 OClm $50,000SAL (4:46 ET)
#7 Kimura 6-1
#5 Bird Map 7-2
#2 Money Never Sleeps 3-1
#4 Topo Grigio 4-1
#6 Lil Miss Hot Mess 9-2
Analysis: Kimura took the field gate to wire to beat $25,000 claimers last out in a sharp effort. She was cutting back from a mile on turf where she pressed the early pace and weakened to finish fifth. Adding the hood and the surface switch got this gal back on track. She faces a slightly tougher group here but looks capable of moving forward off her last effort and the 6-1 morning line looks fair.
Bird Map tracked the early pace and finished gamely to break her maiden for a $50,000 tag by a neck last out in her fourth career outing. It was her first start for a tag, and she was claimed away from the Norm Casse barn, landing with Joseph who is 40% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. In her previous start she was fourth here against maiden special weight foes, a race that produced two next out winners including the winner Fashion Babe who beat Alw-1 optional claimers on Feb. 28. He comes back pretty quick for a high % barn that is in a bit of a slump right now, 1 for 20 over the last 15 days here.
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Gulfstream Park
R1: #5 Amber Princess 8-1
R1: #8 Delia’s Pride 10-1
R3: #5 Too Stylish 15-1
R4: #2 Kaufy Futures 15-1
R9: #6 The Green Mo’ster 10-1
R10: 12 Yalko 8-1
Thursday's Best Bet: Luna Fortis can step up and score at Oaklawn
by Jarrod Horak April 22, 2020
Thursday's 8th race from Oaklawn Park is an entry level allowance event for fillies and mares traveling a mile and a sixteenth on the main track (Post Time - 5:38 p.m. ET).
#9 LUNA FORTIS (6-1) matched the winning par for this in a clear place finish in a restricted claiming event on a good track March 20. Martin Garcia rides and Cipriano Contreras shows a profit with his second after the claim starters.
#1 Road Test (4-1) brought her good California form to Arkansas in her last three starts. The sharp mare shoots for a hat trick.
#3 Out of Touch (7-2) competed on turf in her last eight starts for Brad Cox. The New York-bred mare is 1-for-7 with a couple of show finishes on dirt, but she is 0-for-4 with zero top three finishes on a fast track.
#2 Crystal Lake (10-1) had her 5-race trifecta streak snapped in a 6th place finish April 3, and she was rank early and wide late that day. She hit the board in a pair of local fast track routes under Declan Cannon earlier in the meet.
Wagers:
#9 to win
Exacta Box 1-9
Trifecta 1-9/1-2-3-9/1-2-3-9
Recent Best Bet Winners
April 4 - KIMARI ($7.80), Exacta ($23.80)
April 6 - WHOLEHEARTED ($6.40)
April 11 - PROVERB ($7.60), Exacta ($33.60), Trifecta ($48.70)
April 15 - Blue Harbor/Mr. Tickle/Yo Y Me Trifecta ($127.50)
April 17 - Sekani/The Mary Rose/Choctaw Charlie Trifecta ($48.30)
April 20 - SHE'S ALL WOLFE ($2.80), Trifecta ($89.00)
April 21 - CANEY'S GHOST ($5.80), Quinella ($9.00), Trifecta ($14.10)
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Oaklawn Park
PURCHASE
Oaklawn Park - Race 5
Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / 50 Cent Pick 5 (Races 5-9)
Maiden Claiming $30,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 86 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 3:06P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000, IF FOR $25,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SQUARED STRAIGHT is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SQUARED STRAIGHT: Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. AHSAD: Ho rse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SEMI CHARMED DAY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. MO AND GO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7
SQUARED STRAIGHT
10/1
4/1
12
AHSAD
5/1
5/1
6
SEMI CHARMED DAY
15/1
7/1
8
MO AND GO
7/2
10/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
8
MO AND GO
8
7/2
Front-runner
95
82
71.0
69.8
61.8
13
NOD TO PERSIA
13
8/1
Front-runner
71
60
64.9
59.6
43.1
4
MARQUEE THUNDER
4
8/1
Front-runner
64
50
46.5
47.4
24.9
7
SQUARED STRAIGHT
7
10/1
Alternator/Stalker
91
80
82.1
76.7
69.7
12
AHSAD
12
5/1
Alternator/Stalker
91
76
67.0
72.8
66.3
6
SEMI CHARMED DAY
6
15/1
Alternator/Stalker
82
80
56.9
75.8
62.3
5
DYESS
5
12/1
Trailer
0
0
59.7
59.7
45.2
10
WICKED CITI
10
15/1
Trailer
72
58
49.3
55.0
35.0
3
BEE BRIDGE
3
10/1
Trailer
78
71
44.6
67.3
56.8
1
URBANITE
1
6/1
Trailer
0
0
40.8
62.6
52.1
9
DEANOS CAPE
9
6/1
Alternator/Trailer
84
78
65.0
65.3
51.8
2
MCSHADY
2
8/1
Alternator/Non-contender
94
67
74.0
51.9
41.4
Unknown Running Style: UNWANTED INTRUDER (20/1) [Jockey: Eramia Richard E - Trainer: Martin William N].
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE
Gulfstream Park - Race 10
$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5
Claiming $12,500 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 5:47P
(RAIL AT 60 FEET). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 127 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE)
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SWEET STORY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. TRILBY: Hors e has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SPICY NELLY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. RETRO STREET: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. DANGEROUS WOMAN: Horse ranks in the top three in a verage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
10
SWEET STORY
9/2
6/1
5
TRILBY
7/2
6/1
9
SPICY NELLY
10/1
8/1
7
RETRO STREET
4/1
8/1
14
DANGEROUS WOMAN
20/1
8/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
11
DIXIE PRINCESS
11
30/1
Front-runner
92
76
77.0
72.6
52.6
12
YAKO
12
8/1
Alternator/Front-runner
85
77
73.0
78.2
61.2
3
SWEET BLOSSOM
3
12/1
Stalker
85
80
70.4
78.2
62.2
14
DANGEROUS WOMAN
14
20/1
Alternator/Stalker
91
86
74.8
80.4
62.4
8
VALLEY DATE
8
8/1
Alternator/Stalker
85
79
74.5
78.3
65.8
7
RETRO STREET
7
4/1
Alternator/Stalker
87
81
71.6
82.2
67.2
13
OBLIO'S WISH
13
8/1
Alternator/Stalker
84
87
70.4
71.2
57.2
10
SWEET STORY
10
9/2
Alternator/Stalker
91
89
67.6
79.2
70.7
9
SPICY NELLY
9
10/1
Alternator/Stalker
90
83
61.2
77.2
68.2
5
TRILBY
5
7/2
Trailer
90
78
55.2
79.2
73.7
6
VINYARDNINA
6
30/1
Trailer
92
66
46.2
70.6
49.1
1
BAHAMA KITTEN
1
12/1
Alternator/Trailer
90
79
59.0
79.4
65.4
2
JUST SASSY
2
20/1
Alternator/Trailer
90
77
50.0
74.4
59.9
4
TROPICALITY
4
15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
81
69
81.8
76.6
57.1
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