Horse Racing Betting News Saturday 3/21/20

By Mike Dempsey

It turns out there will be a Derby on the first Saturday of May, just not the one where the winner adorns a bouquet of roses.

Oaklawn Park announced yesterday that the Arkansas Derby (G2) will be moved from Saturday, April 11 to Saturday, May 2, which is closing day at the Hot Springs, Arkansas racetrack.

The dated opened when Churchill Downs announced that the Kentucky Derby would be moved to Saturday, September 5.

The Arkansas Derby remains a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race while the purse has been reduced from $1 million to $750,000.

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In the midst of the Coronavirus crisis things seem to be changing by the hour. It sure looked as if racing in California would be shuttered, but both Santa Anita and Golden Gate Fields ran on Friday.

California Governor Gavin Newsom announced a shelter in place order Thursday night until further notice, but racing will go on with no spectators.

Santa Anita announced that all profits from racing will go to a charity or multiple charities supporting Coronavirus relief efforts in the community.

In addition to the California tracks and Oaklawn Park, we still have racing at Sam Houston, Gulfstream Park, Charles Town and Tampa Bay Downs.

FS1 will cover the action on Saturday and Sunday from 1:30 to 6:30 ET. The NBC Sports Network will simulcast the TVG Network programming on Friday and Saturday from 4:00 to 8:00 ET.

Horseplayers can also stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $200 for new players.

We have a big day at Fair Grounds on Saturday, eight stakes on the card including the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2), a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my 11 strongest plays from Fair Grounds and Gulfstream Park.

Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Md $50,000 (12:45 ET)
#2 Chouchou de Boo 12-1
#3 Philly Special 3-1
#1 Florada 9-2
#6 Lake Parima 8-1

Analysis: Chouchou de Boo stretches back out to a mile after tracking the early pace and weakened to finish fourth last out against a $25,000 tag. The winner Roman City came back to beat $25,000 starter optional claimers in her next outing on March 4. She was claimed out of her last outing by the Pompay barn that is 3 for 11 (with a +ROI) first off the claim. She is bred to go long, by Big Brown out of a Freud mare, her first foal to race. She pressed the pace and faded to finish ninth two back at a mile but willing to give her one more look here to handle a mile.

Philly Special was outrun in her debut on the main track and was a decent third last out going a mile on turf. She drops in for a tag here for the Pletcher barn that this 34% winners dropping runners from maiden special to maiden claiming. She was a $300,000 Keeneland purchase, out of a Gilded Time mare that has dropped four winners but no turf winners. She has dropped a couple of stakes winners, top earner Justalittlesmoke ($737,870). Pletcher adds the hood and this gal looks like a good fit here dropping in class.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 6-1 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 1,2,3,6
TRI: 2,3 / 1,2,3,6 / 1,2,3,6,11

Saturday’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 9 The Melody of Colors (4:49 ET)
#2 Compensate 6-1
#7 Foolish Humor 7-2
#10 Still Alive 10-1
#4 Hear My Prayer 3-1

Analysis: Compensate pressed the early pace and finished gamely to beat non-conditioned allowance company last out going five furlongs here on the main track in a race taken off the turf. Her lone trip on turf came at 6 1/2 furlongs at Woodbine as a maiden in her second career start and she dueled for the early lead and held on for a good second. The winner of that race was Cool Shadows, who came back to win the Canadian bred Princess Elizabeth in her next outing on Oct. 26. She should be a decent price in this spot as she returns to turf and stakes company for just the second time.

Foolish Humor is making her first start since September where she tracked the early pace and weakened to finish seventh in the Woodbine Cares. Two back in the Colleen at Monmouth Park she dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish second but was placed first via a DQ after getting bumped hard in the stretch. Good works on the morning tab and she is in good hands with the Ward barn that is 21% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 2,7 / 2,4,7,10
TRI: 2,7 / 2,4,7,10 / 2,3,4,7,10

Saturday’s Featured Race of the Day from Fair Grounds:

FG Race 12 The Louisiana Derby G2 (4:49 CT)
#10 Enforceable 7-2
#3 Wills Bayou 8-1
#6 Shake Some Action 15-1
#14 Silver State 6-1

Analysis: Enforceable exits the faster division of the Risen Star (G2). The colt was off a beat slow and away last and came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot behind the gate to wire winner Mr. Monomoy. The colt got more pace two back in the Lecomte (G3) and the colt came with a good rally while six wide to take over the lead and won by 1 ½ lengths. Five of the last six winners of this race prepped in the Risen Star. The extra ground here should suit this guy. He is by Tapit out of the stakes winner Justwhistledixie ($449,427) who has dropped three other stakes winners including 2013 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner New Year’s Day ($1.1 million). He was our top pick in the Lecomte where we got $15.60 back and was our second choice in the Risen Star where he was 3-1. Hoping we catch most of the 7-2 morning line.

Wells Bayou earned the top last out speed fig in a runner up finish in the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park in his stakes debut. He set the early fractions and could not hold off Silver Prospector, who returned to finish sixth in the Rebel (G2) in his next start. The Cox trainee caught off tracks in each of his first three starts, including beating Alw-1 optional claimers two back in the mud at Oaklawn Park. The runner up in that race was Something Natural, who beat Alw-1 foes and then ran third in the Rushaway at Turfway Park in his most recent start. The colt owns solid early and mid pace numbers and he has enough pedigree to go longer, by Lookin At Lucky out of a Hard Spun mare, her first foal to race. Looks as if she will be a fair piece in this spot.

Shake Some Action appears headed in the right direction. The Cox trainee broke his maiden on turf two back in his second career start. Last out he was a game winner versus Alw-1 optional claimers going nine furlongs over the main track here. He has shown improvement with each outing and is bred to handle more ground. The $300,000 purchase is by Into Mischief and the first foal to race out of a Tiznow mare. He is worth tossing in the mix here at a generous price.

Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 3,10 / 3,6,10,13
TRI: 3,10 / 3,6,10,13 / 3,6,10,13,14