Horse Racing Betting News Saturday 6/13/20

By Mike Dempsey

The feature at Belmont Park on Saturday afternoon is the $300,000 Ogden Phipps (G1), and while it drew a compact field of six it is a tough group of fillies and mares that will go 1 1/16 miles on the main track.

Ollie’s Candy is the 8-5 morning line favorite, shipping in from Santa Anita for trainer John Sadler. The mare had a clear lead in the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn Park but got run down by the talented Ce Ce.

Third in that race was Point of Honor, who is the 2-1 morning line favorite in the Phipps. She was way too far back early over the Oaklawn Park surface and she has a great shot of turning the tables this afternoon and she is who I will be backing for the top spot.

The feature at Churchill Downs this afternoon is the $100,000 Louisville (G3) which drew a competitive field of 12 that will go 1 ½ miles on turf. The race is the finale on an 11-race card.

The Brad Cox trained Arklow is the 8-5 morning line favorite. The six-year-old is making his first start since running fifth in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) at Gulfstream Park in January. He won just one of his seven starts last year, but that one victory came in the prestigious Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) at Belmont Park last October.

I am going to look for a bit more value with Admission Office, who was fourth in the Sunshine Forever at Gulfstream Park in his last outing and may be able to pull off a minor upset.

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my nine strongest plays from Churchill Downs and Belmont Park.

You can catch the action from Belmont Park and Churchill Downs today from 1:00 to 2:30 on FS2 and 2:30 to 6:30 on FS1. Horseplayers can also stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
Belmont Park Race 1 Analysis - 6/13 (1:15)
BEL Race 1 Md $40,000 (1:15 ET)
#10 Our Troubadour 7-2
#12 No Sense 8-1
#11 Mitzrayim 10-1
#1 After Prom Party 10-1

Analysis: Our Troubadour returns to turf here after making a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out over a wet track here off the bench last out. The colt caught a racing strip that was playing to inside speed that day. He has two trips on grass in his career including a decent third here last October in his second career start. He does not have a real strong turf pedigree debut showed he can handle it and should move forward second off the bench for an underrated barn. The barn is 15% winners (with a +ROI) overall in turf sprints.

No Sense debuts for the Danner barn that is 12% winners (with a +ROI) with first timers. The gelding is by Street Sense out of a Menifee mare that won once on turf and has dropped six winners and three have won on turf with two stakes winners, top earner Derby Kitten ($469,696). The gelding sports solid looking works at Tampa Bay Downs and one local breeze here on the training track since coming north. Franco takes the call and this gelding should be a decent price in this spot.

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:
Churchill Downs Race 6 Analysis - 6/13 (3:42 ET)
CD Race 6 Clm $50,000B (3:42 ET)
#2 Ebben 3-1
#8 Pyron 5-2
#5 Make Noise 8-1
#4 Runnin' Ray 8-1

Analysis: Ebben stalked the early pace had to wait in behind foes looking for some running room from the 5 1/6's to the 1/4 and was angled toward the inside but could not make up enough ground late in a fifth place finish. Note that outing came against open $50,000 foes and he in restricted company here while cutting back to seven furlongs. He was a game second two back at Oaklawn Park against $35,000 non-winners of three. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and fits well here although it has been a while since his last win.

Pyron tracked the early pace and did not have enough punch left late in a fourth-place finish last out against Alw-2 optional claimers going 5 1/2 on turf. The Asmussen trainee returns to the main track here and both of his wins came at Oaklawn Park, breaking his maiden on dirt in his debut and then beating Alw-1 optional claimers in the slop. The barn is 21% winners moving runners from turf to dirt.

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
Belmont Park Race 9 Analysis - 6/13 (5:36 ET)
BEL Race 9 The Ogden Phipps G1 (5:36 ET)
#2 Point of Honor 2-1
#3 She's a Julie 8-1
#5 Ollie's Candy 8-5
#6 Golden Award 7-2

Analysis: Point of Honor looks primed for a top effort as she makes her third start off the bench here for the Weaver barn. She was the beaten chalk against $40,000 handicap foes two back off a 6 1/2-month layoff. last out in the Apple Blossom 'Cap (G1) on the stretch out she was away last and outrun early and after being 20+ lengths behind in the early stages came with a good late rally to finish third, beaten 2 1/4 lengths. She landed din the exacta in four of her five starts last year including runner up finishes at Saratoga in the CCA Oaks (G1) and Alabama (G1). She reunites with Castellano and just needs one of those in here to keep the chalk honest early.

She's a Julie makes her second start off a 7 1/2 month break here for the Asmussen barn, not a threat in a sixth-place finish in the Shawnee last out at Churchill Downs. She won the Bayakoa (G3) and La Troien (G1) last year and she then lost four in a row but was in against tougher company including Blue Prize, Midnight Bisou and Elate. She is capable of a much better effort last out and should move forward for Asmussen who is 22% winners with runners making their second start of a +180-day layoff. She will be chasing the favorite in the early going and if that one regresses, she has a good shot of being in the mix here at a decent price.

Ollie's Candy set the early factions, opened up heading for home but got nailed late by Ce Ce in the Apple Blossom. She earned a career top speed fig in the effort, her fourth loss in a row Her last win came in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1) at Del Mar last July. She owns a good edge in early and mid pace numbers and may appreciate the cut back to one turn. She seems likely to get bet down from her 8-5 morning line.
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
1: #12 No Sense 8-1
R1: #11 Mitzrayim 10-1
R2: #10 Quality Choice 12-1
R3: #6 Dare to Try 8-1
R3: #7 Arima 12-1
R4: #6 Gatto Marrone 12-1
R5: #5 Playthatfunnymusic 8-1
R6: #2 Pool Winner 15-1
R6: #7 Pocket Change 8-1
R8: #5 Quality Stones 8-1
R9: #3 She’s a Julie 8-1
R10: #7 Princess Fawzia 12-1

Saturday's Best Bet: Clayton ready for big effort in Woodstock
By Jarrod Horak

Saturday’s 7th race from Woodbine is the $100,000 Woodstock Stakes for three-year-olds dashing six furlongs on the all-weather surface (Post Time 4:21 p.m. ET).

This becomes an interesting betting race if #7 Untitled (5-2) fails to handle all-weather ground. #4 CLAYTON (3-1) was excellent in his local sprint debut last year. He overcame a less than ideal trip and cruised that day, and he is probably going to win if he has improved at all and is ready to roll in his first start in more than six months.

#2 Newstome (4-1) disappointed in the Animal Kingdom Stakes at Turfway Park March 14. He easily won a Pennsylvania-bred stakes on all-weather ground last fall, and he might be able to bounce back.

#6 Striking Moon (15-1) is a first time gelding making his first start in more than nine months. He improved second time out in a sharp local maiden win last summer.

#8 Muchmorethanthis (10-1) is another first time gelding, and he finished in the top three in all seven of his turf starts.

Wagers:

#4 to win

Exacta Box 2-4

Trifecta 2-4/2-4-6-8/2-4-6-8

June 2020 Best Bet Winners

June 3 - VALUE PROPOSITION ($11.20), Exacta ($60.50)
June 10 - HEIR BALL ($12.20)

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs
PURCHASE
Delta Downs - Race 17

Daily Double(Races 17-18)($1 min) / Exacta / Trifecta(.50 min) Superfecta(.10 min)

Trial • 330 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 80 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 9:15P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLD COLTS AND GELDINGS, ACCREDITED LOUISIANA BRED QUARTER HORSE FOALS OF 2018, WHICH HAVE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE TO THE LADDIE FUTURITY. $425 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY TO TRIALS. LATE PAYMENT: $6,000.00 TO ENTER THE TRIALS PRIOR TO TIME OF ENTRIES CLOSING. WEIGHTS: 122 LBS. (ALL FINAL PAYMENTS AND SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS MUST BE ON ACCOUNT WITH THE HORSEMEN'S BOOKKEEPER PRIOR TO 10:30 A.M. THE DAY OF ENTRY TO TRIALS. CASH OR CASHIER CHECK ONLY !).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * FREIGHTTRAIN AUSTIN: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibas e Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. NASTYGRAM: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase S peed Figure at the distance/surface.
5
FREIGHTTRAIN AUSTIN
7/2

9/5
6
NASTYGRAM
4/1

7/2

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
3
CARTERS FIRST FLIGHT
3

8/1
Fast
0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0
5
FREIGHTTRAIN AUSTIN
5

7/2
Fast
82

67

0.0

0.0

0.0
6
NASTYGRAM
6

4/1
Average
82

58

0.0

0.0

0.0
7
CHANGING THE GAME
7

20/1
Slow
0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0
10
JJ IDEA DASH
10

8/1
Slow
0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE
Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 3

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager) $1 Pick Three

Claiming $5,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 90 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 6:58P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 13 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (MAIDEN RACES AND RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Lone Front-runner. STORMIN TRICK is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MO DINERO: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. STORMIN TRICK: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. HOT N'FAMOUS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. WALK ON WATER: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. KENNY BENNY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3
MO DINERO
9/2

6/1
4
STORMIN TRICK
5/2

6/1
5
HOT N'FAMOUS
8/1

7/1
2
WALK ON WATER
7/2

8/1
1
KENNY BENNY
2/1

9/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
4
STORMIN TRICK
4

5/2
Front-runner
85

74

77.9

73.1

63.6
2
WALK ON WATER
2

7/2
Stalker
85

79

67.5

73.2

67.7
6
JOHANN'S COMMAND
6

8/1
Stalker
83

72

59.4

67.6

55.6
1
KENNY BENNY
1

2/1
Alternator/Stalker
84

73

78.8

83.6

79.1
5
HOT N'FAMOUS
5

8/1
Alternator/Stalker
87

87

68.0

80.4

74.4
3
MO DINERO
3

9/2
Alternator/Stalker
89

87

64.2

84.4

80.4
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