Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 4/22/20
Horse Races Today: Wednesday's Tampa Bay Downs Analysis & Odds
April 21, 2020
By Mike Dempsey
With 1-2 inches of rain forecast for Will Rogers Downs and my love affair with Fonner Park a thing of the past, we will head out to Tampa Bay Downs on Wednesday afternoon.
The weather is perfect and we have an outstanding eight race card on tap that features four turf races.
The opener is $8,000 non-winners of three test on the main track which kicks off the early Pick 5 which has a 50-cent increment.
It is a really tough sequence, but both Pioneerof New York in the second race and Super Twenty Five in the third both looking like legit favorites.
With only eight races today the late Pick 5 starts in the fourth race, so the two wagers overlap. Both the fourth and fifth races look ripe for longshots and it looks as if we may be able to beat the morning line favorite in the final two races on the card.
We will be back in action at Gulfstream Park on Thursday
Horseplayers can stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.
Here is the opening race from Tampa Bay Downs to get the day off to a good start:
TAM Race 1 Clm $8,000N3L (12:30 ET)
#9 Upper Crown 9-2
#2 The Kahn 5-2
#3 Big Rig 4-1
#5 Sunshines Out 6-1
Analysis: Upper Crown set the early fractions and weakened to finish fourth last out at this level. The gelding had run a good second two back where he had carved out the early fractions but was unable to hold off the winner in the stretch. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and catches a field her without a ton of early zip signed up. He is 0 for 4 since beating non-winners of two in gate to wire fashion here back in January but may be able to handle this group.
The Kahn stalked the early pace and was no match for an eight-length winner last out in a runner up finish last out in his second start after landing with the Bennett barn. The gelding was sixth on turf two back against $16,000 non-winners of three. He faces an easier group here for a sharp barn having a good meeting. A logical threat her although our top pick is likely going to offer a bit more value for the top spot.
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Tampa Bay Downs:
TAM Race 7 Md Sp Wt (3:30 ET)
#5 Creed 5-2
#7 Blame the Cake 9-5
#6 Sense of Justice 3-1
#3 Land Mark Deal 12-1
Analysis: Creed makes his debut for the Shug barn that is 15% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters. The colt was a $650,000 Keeneland purchase, by Honor Code out of a stakes placed Seeking the Gold mare that has dropped five foals to race with four winners. A solid string of works on the morning tab at Payson and this colt looks ready to go. Gallardo is a plus.
Blame the Cake was a game second in his debut at Saratoga last July in his debut for a barn that rarely wins first time out. He regressed second out where he checked in fourth beaten 11 lengths and hit the bench. He returns here for the Wilkes barn that is 20% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. The $16,000 Ocala purchase is by Blame out of a Stormy Atlantic mare that has dropped one winner.
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Tampa Bay Downs
R2: #3 No Sniveling 10-1
R3: #10 Drinks On Maggie 8-1
R3: #3 Alluring Approval 8-1
R4: #2 Louie’s Backyard 20-1
R5: #7 Cave Run 8-1
R6: #9 Patent Digna 12-1
R7: #3 Land Mark Deal 12-1
Wednesday's Best Bet: Ghosted can notch another victory at Will Rogers
by Jarrod Horak
Wednesday’s 9th race from Will Rogers Downs is a $20,900 entry level allowance event for fillies and mares dashing six furlongs on the main track (Post Time - 6:15 p.m. ET).
#6 GHOSTED (5-1) exceeded the winning par for this in a claiming sprint victory at Sunland Park March 10. Goncalves has been winning races with Arnett recently, and the sharp mare owns early-pressing versatility.
#10 Vallestina (3-1) did not have the best trip from the outside post as the favorite in a similar local sprint April 13, and she was right behind the place and show finishers that day. Her new pilot Ty Kennedy is riding well at the current meet.
#5 Majestic Queen (4-1) exits back-to-back good efforts in turf sprints at Sam Houston. She should attend the pace.
#3 Morgan’s David (7-2) finished in the top three in eight of her last nine starts. The early-pressing type is right there on numbers.
Wagers:
#6 to win
Exacta 6/3-5-10
Exacta 3-5-10/6
Recent Best Bet Winners
April 4 - KIMARI ($7.80), Exacta ($23.80)
April 6 - WHOLEHEARTED ($6.40)
April 11 - PROVERB ($7.60), Exacta ($33.60), Trifecta ($48.70)
April 15 - Blue Harbor/Mr. Tickle/Yo Y Me Trifecta ($127.50)
April 17 - Sekani/The Mary Rose/Choctaw Charlie Trifecta ($48.30)
April 20 - SHE'S ALL WOLFE ($2.80), Trifecta ($89.00)
April 21 - CANEY'S GHOST ($5.80), Quinella ($9.00), Trifecta ($14.10)
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs
PURCHASE
Will Rogers Downs - Race 2
Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50) / Superfecta (.10) Pick 5 (.50) (Races 2-3-4-5-6)
Claiming $7,500 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $9,350 • Post: 1:45P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * INDIAN CROSS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest T rackMaster Power Rating. NATIONS HOPE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. DE BIRD IS DA WORD: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Powe r Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BERNARDIAN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3
INDIAN CROSS
5/2
6/1
8
NATIONS HOPE
20/1
6/1
5
DE BIRD IS DA WORD
3/1
6/1
9
BERNARDIAN
5/1
7/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
9
BERNARDIAN
9
5/1
Front-runner
75
69
84.2
55.0
49.0
7
RUDY'S BOY
7
20/1
Front-runner
72
67
76.8
57.4
43.4
5
DE BIRD IS DA WORD
5
3/1
Stalker
80
67
64.6
67.6
61.1
3
INDIAN CROSS
3
5/2
Stalker
72
74
46.7
66.6
57.6
4
MEN OF KYLE
4
4/1
Stalker
71
71
46.1
56.7
45.2
8
NATIONS HOPE
8
20/1
Alternator/Stalker
80
72
74.8
61.8
53.8
2
TALK GRUFF
2
20/1
Trailer
76
62
51.4
60.6
48.1
1
SECOND GUESS
1
20/1
Trailer
73
64
39.4
63.4
53.9
6
MY MACHO MON
6
9/2
Alternator/Trailer
67
66
50.8
59.0
49.0
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