Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 7/8/20
July 7, 2020
By Mike Dempsey
Better late than never. Keeneland opens on Wednesday afternoon for an abbreviated meeting which will last just five days, ending Sunday.
However, it is going to be an exciting meet, with 10 stakes races over the final three days of the meet including the $600,000 Blue Grass (G2), a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.
The Blue Grass is Saturday, and there are three Grade 1 races on the card—the $400,000 Ashland, $350,000 Jenny Wiley and the $250,000 Madison.
There are no stakes on opening day, but we have an excellent nine race betting card and later tonight at Indiana Grand we have a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.
The $300,000 Indiana Derby (G3) offers up 20-8-4-2 points toward entry into the Run for the Roses. A field of 10 will line up with a 7:45 ET post time.
As you can see below, I landed on Earned who is 8-1 on the morning line. The Steve Asmussen trainee makes his stakes debut and looks as if he still has plenty of upside.
You can stream the action from Keeneland using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.
Here is the opening race from Keeneland to get the day off to a good start:
Keeneland Race 1 Analysis - 7/8 (1:05 p.m. ET)
KEE Race 1 Md $50,000 (1:05 ET)
#9 Majority Rules 3-1
#7 Can'tbetemall 8-1
#3 American Humor 5-1
#2 Cernan 4-1
Analysis: Majority Rules drops in for a tag for the first time here in his fourth career start. He makes his first start since last summer at the Spa where he faded to finish sixth going nine furlongs. He showed some ability in his first two starts, a good second going a one turn mile in his debut and then a runner up finish at the Spa. He adds blinkers here for the Fawkes barn that is 18% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. He is bred to go long, by Tiznow out of the stakes winner Spring Meadow ($496,123) who has dropped six winners.
Can'tbetemall makes his second start off the bench here after checking in sixth last out against $75,000 foes going a one turn mile at Churchill Downs off the bench. He ran second at 40-1 two back behind a 14-length winner at Del mar last summer. He has had plenty of works over the main track here and should be tighter second off the bench.
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:
Keeneland Race 7 Analysis - 7/8 (4:24 p.m. ET)
KEE Race 7 Alw $50,000s (4:24 ET)
#1 Admire 5-1
#7 Father G 4-1
#8 Hail to the Chief 8-1
#11 Lngtermrelationshp 6-1
Analysis: Admire took the field gate to wire to beat $30,000 non-winners of two last out at Churchill Downs. The Romans trainee earned a near career top speed fig and draws the rail here in a race void of much early speed. The colt catches a slightly tougher group here but looks more than capable of taking this group gate to wire.
Father G makes his second start off the bench here for the Drury barn. Last out off a 5 1/2 month break the gelding stalked the early pace and made a mild late rally to finish third against Alw-1 company going seven furlongs. He has enough pedigree to handle two turns and he beat $50,000 non-winners of two going a one turn mile last September in his first start against winners. The barn is 27% winners (with a +ROI) with runners making their second start off a 45-180-day layoff. He should move forward off his last effort for a capable outfit.
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Indiana Grand:
Indiana Grand Race 11 Analysis - 7/8 (7:45 p.m. ET)
IND Race 11 The Indiana Derby - G3 (7:45 ET)
#4 Earner 8-1
#8 Major Fed 7-2
#5 Shared Sense 4-1
#9 Winning Impression 3-1
Analysis: Earner makes his stakes debut after running third against Alw-1 optional claimers at Churchill Downs going nine furlongs in his first start against winners. The colt set the early fractions and weakened late, beaten two lengths. The runner up in that race was Dean Martini, who came back to win the Ohio Derby (G3) at Thistledown in his next outing on June 27 at 14-1.
Our top pick broke his maiden at Oaklawn Park two back in his second career start and first at a route. He did it sitting off the pace, taking over heading for home and drawing away smartly to win by 3 ¾ lengths. He ran second to Echo Town in his debut at Fair Grounds back in January, that colt running second in the Bachelor at Oaklawn Park and most recently a second in the Woody Stephens (G1) on June 20 at Belmont Park. The $425,000 Keeneland purchase is out of a stakes placed Medaglia d’Oro mare and looks as if he still has some upside. He can lead or sit just off the pace here and the 8-1 morning line looks generous.
Major Fed put in two good efforts at Fair Grounds, a runner up finish in one of the divisions of the Risen Star (G2) and then making a mild late run to finish fourth in the Louisiana Derby (G2) despite getting off a beat slow. He came back in the Matt Winn (G3) at Churchill Downs where he drew the outside post, was very wide around the far turn and wide throughout, fading to finish a well beaten 10th in a disappointing effort. The Foley trainee has come back with a couple of good works and he should get a good pace set up there as there are three in here that have some early zip. He is much better than he showed in his last outing.
Shared Sense tracked the early pace and was no match for Art Collector last out in a runner up finish against non-winners of three optional claimers. He has come up short in his two stakes tries, a sixth in the Smarty Jones and two back a sixth in the War Chant on turf. He is bred to get the added ground, by Street Sense out of a Bernardini mare, her first foal to race. He is in good hands with Cox and also should benefit if the early pace is strong.
Live Longshots
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Keeneland
R1: #7 Can’tbetemall 8-1
R3: #1 Coconut Cottage 8-1
R4: #7 I Hear You 10-1
R6: #10 Sea of Hope 10-1
R6: #7 Elusive Ruler 10-1
R7: #8 Hail to the Chief 8-1
R9: #1 Second Line David 8-1
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs
PURCHASE
Indiana Downs - Race 4
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) 10 Cent Grand High 5 (Pentafecta)
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 67 • Purse: $31,000 • Post: 3:57P
(PLUS UP TO 40% INDIANA STATE BRED SUPPLEMENT) FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * PAQUIME: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in Track Master Power Rating. EL CASADORA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. INSOFAR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rat ing. SMOOTH MUSIC: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
10
PAQUIME
6/1
9/2
2
EL CASADORA
9/2
5/1
1
INSOFAR
12/1
6/1
11
SMOOTH MUSIC
10/1
10/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
11
SMOOTH MUSIC
11
10/1
Front-runner
0
0
71.6
55.3
48.8
10
PAQUIME
10
6/1
Front-runner
64
63
70.2
60.1
56.6
6
EL PIQUIN
6
30/1
Front-runner
62
39
64.4
38.9
27.4
1
INSOFAR
1
12/1
Front-runner
64
61
60.7
57.8
51.3
2
EL CASADORA
2
9/2
Alternator/Front-runner
74
69
65.3
51.4
46.9
9
BARREL PROOF
9
12/1
Alternator/Trailer
0
0
47.4
46.5
36.5
8
NIAGARA CHARLIE
8
30/1
Alternator/Trailer
0
0
45.5
44.6
32.1
Unknown Running Style: LEMME C UR VOUCHER (20/1) [Jockey: De La Cruz Fernando - Trainer: Klopp Randy L], BARRISTER TOM (10/1) [Jockey: Baze Tyler - Trainer: Ewing Michael Ann], PASION AZTECA (30/1) [Jockey: Bowen Rocco - Trainer: Leonard III George],
__________________
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs
PURCHASE
Evangeline Downs - Race 4
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Claiming $12,500 • 7 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 7:11P
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. MANGELSEN is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MANGELSEN: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth s tart after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
5
MANGELSEN
3/1
5/2
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
5
MANGELSEN
5
3/1
Front-runner
80
86
106.2
80.2
75.2
2
SUCH
2
12/1
Front-runner
71
61
91.6
71.1
60.6
4
OUTLAW X.
4
4/1
Stalker
82
74
45.5
68.9
57.9
10
LIAM SKYE
10
6/1
Alternator/Stalker
74
60
44.7
69.7
58.2
8
I'M D'CAT
8
6/1
Trailer
74
77
64.0
70.1
60.6
6
CLASSIC GREELEY
6
20/1
Trailer
77
66
47.4
64.5
53.0
9
SILVER KING
9
5/2
Trailer
79
82
43.6
78.7
76.7
1
FAST VERDICT
1
10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
82
69
60.7
58.4
47.4
3
STRIKING STAR
3
30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
69
57
44.8
37.2
20.2
7
MY CLASSIC BOWTIE
7
30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
67
65
31.7
53.3
35.3
__________________
by Jarrod Horak
Wednesday’s 9th race from Indiana Grand is the $75,000 Jonathan B. Schuster Memorial Stakes for four-year-olds and up traveling a mile and a sixteenth on the turf course (Post Time - 6:40 p.m. ET).
#5 GRAND JOURNEY (6-1) is a 6-for-12 turf pro exiting a nice optional claiming score at Gulfstream, and Mike Maker claimed him out of that race for $62,500. They must have had this stakes race in mind, and he placed in a similar non-graded event in Florida last year. There are not standouts in this competitive heat, and we have seen Maker turn these veterans into stakes winners on more than one occasion.
#10 Hay Dakota (5-1) is another making his first start after the Maker claim, and he nabbed this one for $62.5k June 3. He does some of his best work at this distance and will try to get involved late under Julien Leparoux.
#2 The Black Album (3-1) was occasionally decent in the sophomore turf route stakes ranks last year. This is his first start in more than eight months, and he can stalk or close.
#7 Cullum Road (6-1) earned competitive numbers in four of his last five starts, but he has dropped nine straight since capturing an allowance turf route at Keeneland April 2019.
#9 First Premio (6-1) has been competitive in his non-graded stakes starts on turf. His recent form is not great and Miguel Mena has been struggling on turf recently, but he has struck three times at this distance. Mixed signals.
Wagers:
#5 to win
Exacta 5-10/2-5-10
Trifecta Key 5/2-7-9-10
Trifecta 2-7-9-10/5/2-7-9-10
July 2020 Best Bet Winners
July 4 - GUFO ($3.20), Trifecta ($34.30)
July 5 - NIGHT OPS ($4.90), Exacta ($18.40)