Kentucky Derby Betting News and Notes

Derby Contenders
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Horses listed in order of Kentucky Derby points earned

MUBTAAHIJ (7-4-1-0)

TRAINER: Mike de Kock (Debut)
JOCKEY: Christophe Soumillon (Debut)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace.

AS A JUVENILE: After starting his career with a pair of off-the-board turf tries in England, Mubtaahij shipped to the U.A.E. and switched to dirt. He broke his maiden on New Year’s Eve against three and four-year-olds in his dirt debut.

THIS YEAR: He’s won three of four this year, including the Al Bastikaya and G2 U.A.E Derby going 1 3/16 miles. In the U.A.E. Derby, he took plenty of kickback behind a wall of speed horses early on before powering away to a daylight score while geared down through the final stages.

CONNECTIONS: While he’s making his Derby debut and isn’t a popular name when it comes to stateside racing, Mike de Kock is regarded as one of the best trainers in the world and has won over 200 G1 races worldwide. Soumillon has become one of his go to guys and is a Breeders’ Cup winner.

WORTH NOTING: Mike de Kock has started six horses in the U.S and all have finished in the trifecta. Like most of his previous runners, Mubtaahij will race without Lasix in the Derby. He is the only horse besides 1971 Derby and Preakness winner Canonero II to compete in the Derby having run twice past 1 1/8 miles.

FAIR PRICE: In a year that appears to have plenty of homegrown talent, this colt has gotten plenty of attention. With that said, there are still plenty of skeptics out there so you’ll probably get the 10-1 or 12-1 you should get.

MATERIALITY (3-3-0-0)

TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 40)
JOCKEY: Javier Castellano (0 for 8)

RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.

AS A JUVENILE: He didn’t race. Therefore, he will try to become the first horse to win the Derby without a start as a juvenile since Apollo in 1882.

THIS YEAR: After breaking his maiden in the slop in his debut, Materiality rolled home to an easy score in the Islamorada then dug in to hold off the more seasoned Upstart in an exciting renewal of the G1 Florida Derby.

CONNECTIONS: Pletcher, who won this in 2010 with Super Saver, teams up with his “other” go-to guy, Javier Castellano, who hasn’t had much success in this race. Throughout the year, however, they are one of the most formidable duos in the land.

WORTH NOTING: The 110 Beyer figure earned last out is the highest in the field. He’s the only colt taking on the dreaded Apollo curse this season.

FAIR PRICE: On a Thursday afternoon at Gulfstream or Belmont or Saratoga, this recipe of an undefeated horse trained by Pletcher and ridden by Castellano usually results in 3-5 on the toteboard. Amazingly, in this heat, you’re going to get about 10-1 on him.

EL KABEIR (9-4-2-2)

TRAINER: John Terranova, III (0 for 1)
JOCKEY: Calvin Borel (3 for 12)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace.

AS A JUVENILE: He broke his maiden impressively on closing weekend at Saratoga in his second start, finished fourth in the G1 Champagne, second in the G2 Nashua then closed out his season with a gate-to-wire score in the G2 KJC at Churchill in his only start under Borel.

THIS YEAR: Easily won the G3 Jerome and G3 Gotham but suffered a pair of defeats in the G3 Withers as the 1-2 favorite and last out in the G1 Wood Memorial. He’s evolved a bit from a front running type to a bit of a closer. C.C. Lopez subbed for Lopez in the Jerome and kept the mount until this.

CONNECTIONS: Terranova isn’t a usual player on the national scene but has gotten off to a solid start this year as he heads into Derby week winning at a bit over 20%. Borel, of course, was the darling of the Derby several years back, winning three in four years with Street Sense in 2007 and back to back scores with longshot Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010.

WORTH NOTING: His owner Zayat Stables will likely have three Derby Entrants. Two of his three stakes wins have come over wet tracks.

FAIR PRICE: Lost some of his value when they named Borel as his rider. He’ll probably be about 20-1 but should be a bit higher than that.

UPSTART (7-3-3-1)

TRAINER: Rick Violette, Jr. (0 for 2)
JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz (0 for 1)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace

AS A JUVENILE: After starting his career with a pair of wins just nine days apart against New York breds at Saratoga, Upstart finished a solid second in the G1 Champagne before a third place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in a race where he confronted a hot early pace a bit too soon.

THIS YEAR: Upstart made his presence felt immediately with a powerful score in the G3 Holy Bull. A workmanlike effort followed when he won the G2 Fountain of Youth where he was controversially disqualified from the win and placed second. Last out, he couldn’t get by the undefeated Materiality through the stretch of the G1 Florida Derby but did appear to be interfered with in the stretch. The stewards took no action.

CONNECTIONS: It’s fair to say Violette is better known for being a local NY guy who can get a juvenile ready than a major player on the big stage. Ortiz has quickly become one of the leading riders in NY and is one of the best on the front end in the nation.

WORTH NOTING: Missed a few days of training with a brief illness in mid to late April. Looking to become the first NY bred since Funny Cide in 2003 to win the roses.

FAIR PRICE: He’s had an interesting winter at Gulfstream, to say the least. Those stewards had a major impact on his year thus far and that will likely impact this toteboard. If he would have won all three in Florida, and he very well could have, he’d have been 8-1. Now, you’ll likely get 15-1 or higher.

FAR RIGHT (9-3-3-2)

TRAINER: Ron Moquett (Debut)
JOCKEY: Mike Smith (1 for 20)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from far back.

AS A JUVENILE: Broke his maiden in his third start/first for Moquett at Churchill then finished third in the Street Sense and in the G3 Delta Jackpot, a race in which he might have been best.

THIS YEAR: A rider change to Mike Smith resulted in a pair of exciting come from behind scores in the Smarty Jones and G3 Southwest, two races in which Smith made his move along the inside. Smith kept something in the tank when he guided him to a second place finish in the G1 Arkansas Derby when there was no catching American Pharoah.

CONNECTIONS: Midwestern mainstay Moquett will be making his Derby debut while Mike Smith upset the Derby applecart with Giacomo in 2005 at over 50-1

WORTH NOTING: Owner Harry Rosenblum sold part of this colt this winter and all of fellow Derby entrant War Story after his maiden win.

FAIR PRICE: Slow speed figures combined with getting beat a pole in the Arkansas Derby is likely going to inflate his price. I would make him 20-1 but you are certain to get a whole lot more.

Derby Contenders
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Horses listed in order of Kentucky Derby points earned (11 to 15)

ITSAKNOCKOUT (4-3-0-0)

TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 40)
JOCKEY: Luis Saez (0 for 2)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace.

AS A JUVENILE: In his only start, Itsaknockout got up in a seven furlong maiden race to win by a nose.

THIS YEAR: Following an easy score in an allowance/optional claimer, Itsaknockout finished second in the G2 Fountain of Youth but was controversially elevated to first after getting carried out in the stretch by the winner, Upstart. Last out, he finished a lackluster fourth in the G1 Florida Derby.

CONNECTIONS: Super Saver gave Pletcher his lone Derby win five years ago while Saez has had no success in limited chances but did have a dynamite meet down at Gulfstream to start this season.

WORTH NOTING: This will be his first start outside of Gulfstream Park.

FAIR PRICE: He went from a perfect three for three, albeit by DQ and considered a major player to falling off of everyone’s radar after that last effort. He may still take some money because of Pletcher but you he should still be 30-1 or higher.

FIRING LINE (5-2-3-0)

TRAINER: Simon Callaghan (Debut)
JOCKEY: Gary Stevens (3 for 20)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace

AS A JUVENILE: Finished second in his debut after breaking slowly at Santa Anita before breaking his maiden over the synthetic surface at Del Mar. He closed out his season with a gutsy runner-up finish to the undefeated Dortmund in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity after alternating on the lead through furious early fractions

THIS YEAR: It began as last year ended, with a heartbreaking defeat at the hands of Dortmund in the G3 Robert Lewis, a race in which he opened up a length on Dortmund in the stretch before Dortmund re-rallied along the rail to nail him. Firing Line followed that up with a dominant score in the G3 Sunland Derby last out.

CONNECTIONS: His trainer is making his debut and getting his first taste of the big time but should be able to lean on the old stalwart Stevens who won this in 1988 with Winning Colors, in 1995 with Thunder Gulch and in 1997 with Silver Charm.

WORTH NOTING: He’s the only entrant that will be running in here off of a six week gap between races. This will be his sixth career start over his fifth different surface.

FAIR PRICE: Widely considered the forgotten horse which usually mean he’ll get some attention and take some “wiseguy” money as the big day approaches. He should still be around 18-1.

DANZIG MOON (5-1-2-0)

TRAINER: Mark Casse (0 for 2)
JOCKEY: Julien Leparoux (0 for 7)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace

AS A JUVENILE: A fourth place finish in his debut sprinting was followed up by a second place finish going a mile after he broke a bit slowly and a three month layoff.

THIS YEAR: An enthusiastic maiden tally off the bench at Gulfstream was followed by a non-descript fourth behind Carpe Diem in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. He tried Carpe Diem again in the G1 Blue Grass last out and finished up a bit stronger to get place money.

CONNECTIONS: For a guy that always seems to be on the Derby Trail, Casse has only run two horses in the race. Leparoux has had plenty of success in the Bluegrass State just not in this event.

WORTH NOTING: He’s a Canadian bred son of Malibu Moon, the same sire of 2013 Derby winner Orb.

FAIR PRICE: He’s won just one race so you automatically need to ask for 30-1 or so. But this guy is kind of popular, especially when people mention horses they’re using in their exotic wagers, so he may actually take more money than he should.

WAR STORY (5-2-2-1)

TRAINER: Tom Amoss (0 for 3)
JOCKEY: Joe Talamo (0 for 1)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace

AS A JUVENILE: Undefeated in two starts, he broke his maiden in a sprint at Churchill before being sold to his new connections. Stretched out to a mile and overcame some trouble at the break in his second start when he easily took an allowance/optional claimer at his winter home, the Fair Grounds.

THIS YEAR: Made the lead in deep stretch of the G3 LeComte before getting run down by International Star then finished second to him again in the G2 Risen Star after a wide journey. Last out, he raced a bit wide again in the G2 Louisiana Derby but failed to kick on through the stretch and finished third.

CONNECTIONS: As usual, Amoss is off to a fast start this year, winning at over 25% though he does the bulk of his winning on much smaller stages. Talamo has ridden in this just once since being named on the morning line favorite, I Want revenge, in 2009 before he scratched the morning of the race.

WORTH NOTING: Was sold after his debut by the majority owner of Far Right. His sire, Northern Afleet, sired 2005 Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex.

FAIR PRICE: Winless this season, his price will be higher than it should be. 30-1 is a good starting point but he’ll probably be higher.

TENCENDUR (5-1-1-1)

TRAINER: George Weaver (Debut)
JOCKEY: Manny Franco (Debut)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace

AS A JUVENILE: He debuted going 1 mile and 70 yards over a course labeled good and finished third over the inner dirt at Aqueduct.

THIS YEAR: Broke his maiden against New York breds in the mud before finishing third to Far From Over, the same horse who won his debut race, in the G3 Withers. Blinkers were added and the money poured in when he finished fifth in the G3 Gotham but he woke up last out in the G1 Wood Memorial when he finished a solid second to Frosted.

CONNECTIONS: While both mare making their debuts here, Franco is making his way up the ranks of the jockey ranks in NY and Weaver has started this year by winning at over 20%.

WORTH NOTING: Weaver was one of Todd Pletcher’s first assistant trainers.

FAIR PRICE: The blinkers seemed to do the trick last out be he still needs to find some lengths and the top flight in here. You’ll be amply rewarded if he pulls it off, probably in the 35-1 range.

Derby Contenders
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Horses listed in order of Kentucky Derby points earned (16-20)

STANFORD (5-2-1-0)

TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 40)
JOCKEY: Undecided

RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.

AS A JUVENILE: Despite breaking poorly, Stanford won his debut in a five furlong sprint at Monmouth Park before finishing off the board after bobbling at the start of the G2 Saratoga Special in mid-August.

THIS YEAR: In his first start off of a six month layoff, Stanford defeated his stablemate Blame Jim in an allowance sprint at Gulfstream then finished second behind another stablemate, the undefeated Materiality, in the Islamorada at Gulfstream though he was disqualified and placed last of six after veering out down the backstretch. Last out he set the pace before grudgingly giving it up late to International Star in the G2 Louisiana Derby.

CONNECTIONS: Pletcher’s lone Derby win came in 2010 with Super Saver and he has yet to name a rider for this colt. Florent Geroux rode him in his latest while Joe Bravo broke his maiden.

WORTH NOTING: His sire, Malibu Moon, sired 2013 Derby winner Orb.

FAIR PRICE: Another “Pletcher at a price” play for those that subscribe to that theory as he’ll likely be north of 30-1.

MR. Z (12-1-4-4)

TRAINER: D Wayne Lukas (4 for 47)
JOCKEY: Ramon Vazquez (Debut)

RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.

AS A JUVENILE: He ran a race-high eight times in 2014. A debut maiden win at Churchill was followed by a campaign in which he ran in seven consecutive graded stakes at six different racetracks. He was second in the G3 Sanford, G2 Saratoga Special and G3 Delta jackpot, where he missed by a nose and third by a head in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity behind Dortmund and Firing Line

THIS YEAR: Looked home free in the Smarty Jones before veering out through the stretch to wind up third, tired in deep stretch after setting the pace when third in the G3 Southwest and was a well beaten third in the G1 Arkansas Derby last out behind stablemate American Pharoah.

CONNECTIONS: Talk about opposite ends of the spectrum: Lukas has won four of these, in 1988 with Winning Colors, in 1995 with Thunder Gulch, in 1996 with Grindstone and in 1999 with Charismatic while his jockey Vazquez is making his debut.

WORTH NOTING: His sire, Malibu Moon, sired 2013 Derby winner Orb. His owner, Zayat Stables, will likely have three Derby entrants. He is the only horse in the field with more than nine starts.

FAIR PRICE: Remember, it’s the Derby, so he won’t be coupled with the other Zayats, which is good news if you’re a fan since he’ll be 35-1 or so.

OCHO OCHO OCHO (5-3-0-1)

TRAINER: Jim Cassidy (0 for 2)
JOCKEY: Elvis Trujillo (0 for 1)

RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.

AS A JUVENILE: He made three starts in the span of 43 days and won them all. After breaking his maiden he took the off the turf Juvenile Turf Stakes at Santa Anita on Breeders’ Cup weekend before shipping to Delta Downs to win the G3 Delta Jackpot by a desperate nose from outside post 10.

THIS YEAR: In his first start in over three months, he basically lost all chance when he was bothered coming out of the gate and through the first turn of the G2 San Felipe. He got to the top in the G1 Blue Grass last out but offered little resistance when Carpe Diem confronted him on the turn and eventually finished third.

CONNECTIONS: Cassidy has won his share of big races but is limited in his grandest stage appearances while Trujillo is riding this horse for the first time, though he has been working with him in the mornings.

WORTH NOTING: His sire, Street Sense, won the Derby in 2007.

FAIR PRICE: 40-1 is about right.

BOLO (5-2-0-2)

TRAINER: Carla Gaines (0 for 1)
JOCKEY: Rafael Bejarano (0 for 9)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace.

AS A JUVENILE: He made three starts, all on the turf. A fifth place finish in his debut was followed by a pair of dominant scores against maidens and in the Eddie Logan. THIS YEAR: Coming off of a 10 week layoff, Bolo finished third in the San Felipe, his dirt debut, after taking a serious run at Dortmund on the far turn and losing second in the final strides. He raced wide last out and appeared to be spinning his wheels through the stretch but did manage to get the show dough in the G1 Santa Anita Derby.

CONNECTIONS: Gaines is looking to become the first female trainer to win the Derby while Bejarano, one of the leading riders in California perennially, hasn’t had much look in this and will be riding this horse for the first time.

WORTH NOTING: His former rider Mike Smith and Gaines both seem to think this colt is better on turf than dirt.

FAIR PRICE: With that said, he hasn’t gotten beat all that far by Dortmund so he may take some action but should still be over 25-1.

KEEN ICE (7-1-0-2)

TRAINER: Dale Romans (0 for 5)
JOCKEY: Kent Desormeaux (3 for 18)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from far back.

AS A JUVENILE: Broke his maiden going a mile at Churchill in the second start of his career. He finished fifth in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland before a third place finish to close out the year in the G2 Remsen at Aqueduct.

THIS YEAR: Started the year in the G2 Holy Bull over a historically speed biased Gulfstream Park surface. Finished a hard-charging third in the G2 Risen Star before mustering just a fourth place finish in the G2 Louisiana Derby.

CONNECTIONS: A Kentucky boy, Romans has yet to fulfill his childhood dreams of winning the roses in five previous tries while Desormeaux has won three, with Real Quiet in 1998, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 and Big Brown in 2008.

WORTH NOTING: His sire, Curlin, was third in the 2007 Derby before winning the Preakness and finishing second in the Belmont.

FAIR PRICE: His late running style has gotten him some fans so he might not be as high as one would think. 30-1 is about right.

FRAMMETO (7-1-1-1)

Will enter as AE (Also Eligible)

TRAINER: Nick Zito (2 for 25)
JOCKEY: Undecided

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from far back.

AS A JUVENILE: Well-regarded since his fourth place debut, Frammento broke his maiden in his two turn debut at Keeneland in his second start but was winless in two starts after that.

THIS YEAR: After starting the year with a poor effort in the G2 Holy Bull, the addition of blinkers seemed to have helped, as evident by a third place finish in the G2 Fountain of Youth when he was the only one running at the end and his fourth place finish along the inside in the G1 Blue Grass last out.

CONNECTIONS: Zito, who won this in 1991 with big closer Strike the Gold and with the front running Go For Gin in 1994, is waiting to see who, if anyone, defects before naming a rider.

WORTH NOTING: As of Monday, April 27, Frammento still needs a defection to draw into the body of the field. Zito has been training him with the assumption that he would get into the field.

FAIR PRICE: He may be the longest price on the board if he gets in at over 35-1.

Kentucky Oaks Past Performances

Kentucky Derby Breakdown
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

1 - Ocho Ocho Ocho 50/1 Elvis Trujillo (0-1) Jim Cassidy (0-2)

Notes: Someone gets stuck with the dreaded rail draw every year and unfortunately for his connections he got stuck with it this year. He came into this season undefeated in three starts and had some steam but he just hasn’t lived up to his expectations. He had an excuse in the San Felipe but none last out when he set easy fractions in the Blue Grass. And now this. I was never a fan and I’m certainly not now.

2 - Carpe Diem 8/1 John Velazquez (1-16) Todd Pletcher (1-40)

Notes: The first of three from Pletcher, he could very well be the best of the Todd Squad this year. His lone defeat in five starts came in the B.C, Juvenile where he finished second so it’s obvious that he has a ton of talent. However, his two biggest wins, the Breeders’ Futurity and Blue Grass last out, came at Keeneland and Pletcher decided that this colt loved in there so much that he kept him there until early this week to train for this race while the rest of his runners were at Churchill. It could be that he’s a good horse overall but an exceptional one at Keeneland. The draw adds to the conundrum because you’d think he’s going to have to leave a bit harder from the gate than Johnny V. would have liked. If he doesn’t, he runs the risk of getting shuffled back going into the first turn frenzy. And he has a history of being problematic at the gate and will be in there an awfully long time while the rest of them load. Factor in Pletcher’s terrible Derby record and I can’t endorse him to win the race but will use him on the bottom end of my exotic wagers based mainly on his ability.

3 – Materiality 12/1 Javier Castellano (0-8) Todd Pletcher (1-40)

Notes: He is famously looking to become the first horse to win the Derby without having run as a juvenile since Apollo did so in 1882. He’s run just three times and while he has won them all and sports the highest Beyer Speed Figure of any runner in this event, I feel like he has certainly benefited from others’ misfortunes. In his second start, fellow Derby runner/stablemate Stanford bore out on the backside and made his job a whole lot easier while I think he should have been DQed in his latest, the Florida Derby, for interference with Upstart in the stretch. His connections win everything in sight but haven’t had the greatest success here. Like Carpe Diem, the post position does him no favor but it’s not as bad since he figured to be a part of the expected hot pace even before they drew the pills. Ultimately, I think his lack of seasoning will do him in against this salty bunch but wouldn’t hold using him in your exotics against you.

4 – Tencendur 30/1 Manny Franco (Debut) George Weaver (Debut)

Notes: One of three New York breds in here looking to follow in the steps of 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide, the only horse bred in the Empire State to win the Derby thus far. Like 2005 winner Giacomo, this guy comes into this still eligible for an entry level allowance contest. Weaver added blinkers two starts back in the Gotham and he took a ton of action but was inexplicably taken off the pace. Last out he was involved much earlier on and he ran a bang up second behind Frosted in the Wood Memorial. Still, he lacks accomplishments and his pedigree is suspect, to put it nicely, in regards to getting this trip. He’s not for me.

5 – Danzig Moon 30/1 Julien Leparoux (0-7) Mark Casse (0-7)

Notes: Another with just a maiden tally under his belt from five starts, he’s gotten a lot of attention in Louisville this past week as many are impressed with his appearance and how he has trained. He’s chased Carpe Diem in his last two, the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass, and needs to make up several lengths on him to even think about being a major player in here. Frankly, I’ve never been a fan and don’t understand all of the attention. Even if you’re a longshot player there are far more attractive options in here. I’m passing.

6 – Mubtaahij 20/1 Christophe Soumillon (Debut) Mike de Kock (Debut)

Notes: Ships in from Dubai looking to become the first horse to win the Derby via the UAE Derby. He’s four for five on dirt, beat older horses as a juvenile in his maiden win and has won twice at 1 3/16 miles. The last horse to win twice past nine furlongs going into this was Canonero II back in 1971 and he was victorious. He sat behind a wall of speed horses last out, took dirt for about six furlongs then exploded home to win by eight lengths once he was shown daylight. He admittedly didn’t beat much and his time was ordinary but he looked amazing doing it. He’s trained by one of the sharpest guy in the world who has won races on four different continents. He’s handled all of the travel brilliantly, has put the weight that he lost back on since his arrival and should work out a fantastic trip from this post. I think he’ll come down from that big morning line price but will still be between 12-1 and 15-1.

7 - El Kabeir 30/1 Calvin Borel (3-12) John Terranova, III( 0-1)

Notes:Was one of the feel-good stories of the winter as Chuckie Lopez subbed for Borel in the Jerome, won, then did a fine job with him all winter long before getting sacked by Zayat after the third place finish in the Wood Memorial. This colt toughed it out all winter in NY and missed some training because of the weather but still ran four times and ran well. Kudos to Terranova. Unfortunately, this isn’t the inner track at Aqueduct and Frosted handled him easily last out. He does own a win over the course but a lot, mainly his change in running style from a front runner to a closer, has changed since then and I just think he’s a cut or two below the best ones in here.

8 – Dortmund 3/1 Martin Garcia (0-3) Bob Baffert (3-24)

Notes: He’s a perfect six for six, has won at three different racetracks, including this one, at four different distances from on the lead and off the pace. He’s a monster in stature, his sire Big Brown won the race in 2008 and is trained by a Hall of Famer with three Derby wins under his belt. There really wasn’t anything not to like until this week when he started misbehaving while schooling in the Churchill paddock. He acted up Wednesday and again on Thursday to a lesser degree, actions that will make Baffert saddle him on the walking path and not in a paddock stall. It makes you wonder: if he’s pulling some antics in front of a few hundred people, what’s going to happen when 140,000 people are singing My Old Kentucky Home? Now, I’m not going to tell you to toss him because of it. He’s a real contender in here, if not the entire Triple Crown. If you play multi-race wagers, he is a must use. If you don’t and you’re just betting the race itself, keep an eye on him wherever you watch the race. Listen to what people are saying on radio, TV, social media and act accordingly. But throw him completely out at your own peril.

9 – Bolo 30/1 Rafael Bejarano (0-9) Carla Gaines (0-1)

Notes: Made a serious run at Dortmund in the San Felipe, his first start on dirt and off a 10 week layoff then couldn’t muster a solid rally when third in the Santa Anita Derby last out, an effort that in part led his trainer and his former rider Mike Smith, who won two turf races aboard him, to say he was better suited for the turf. That’s enough for me to be turned off. Only reason he is here is because the owners have Derby Fever and that is the worst reason of all to run. I’m passing on him.

10 - Firing Line 12/1 Gary Stevens (3-20) Simon Callaghan (Debut)

Notes: He’s the only horse in here trying to win off of a six week break between races, an angle I am not fond of. Plus, he’s only run twice this year. He did give Dortmund all he could handle in the Los Alamitos Futurity and the Robert Lewis, a race in which he actually opened up a length lead in the stretch before his foe came back to get him along the rail. Callaghan was so annoyed at losing two decisions by a head that he got his charge away from Dortmund and took him to New Mexico, where he promptly won the Sunland Derby by a stones’ throw. My issues are his running style, since I think he does his best running on the front end which is already plenty crowded and his pedigree, which isn’t very appealing. He does get Stevens but I am really turned off by the amount of time between races. I’m gonna pass.

11 – Stanford

Notes: He’ll be scratched and will point towards the Peter Pan at Belmont on May 8th or the Preakness on May 15th at Pimlico.

12 - International Star 20/1 Miguel Mena (0-1) Mike Maker (0-8)

Notes: He led all runners in Derby points with 171 after winning all three of his preps this year down at the Fair Grounds. He showed his cool when he was able to get himself off of the rail to win the LeComte once outside of horses, his courage when he made his way through an opening along the rail to win by a length and his determination last out when Stanford dug his heels in before he finally got to the money in the Louisiana Derby. Those are all tremendous qualities in a racehorse, especially one running for the roses. He’s a tad on the slow side and I’m not enamored with his connections in this spot but I’m willing to look past those things because of his other redeeming qualities. His sire won this in 2000 and he’s always gaining ground at the end of his races so the distance shouldn’t be an issue. Using him in all of my exotic wagers.

13 – Itsaknockout 30/1 Luis Saez (0-2) Todd Pletcher (1-40)

Notes: I’ll give his connections this: they’ve done a great job at getting him some exposure by having him wear a blanket promoting the Mayweather fight, with his name and all. He was technically undefeated going into the Florida Derby but I think the disqualification of Upstart in the Fountain of Youth, one that resulted in this guy getting the win, was a joke. And I think that point was proven last time when he finished nearly 20 lengths behind his rival. Based on his last two starts, it looks like a one turn mile will be his best game. The Pat Day Mile on the undercard would have been a great spot for him but, once again, Derby Fever kicked in. An easy toss.

14 - Keen Ice 50/1 Kent Desormeaux (3-18) Dale Romans (0-5)

Notes: He’s won just one of his seven starts and finished third in two others, including the Risen Star two starts back. He comes from far back and should benefit from the probable hot pace, plus his pedigree cries out for this trip. Also, his lone win came at Churchill Downs. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he is slow, he exits some of the slower preps and is getting his sixth different rider, albeit one that has won three of these. Normally, I like to see some consistency and continuity when it comes to horses I use in the Derby and while I doubt he can win this I feel like he can grab a share based on his running style. Using him on the bottom half of my exotics.

15 – Frosted 15/1 Joel Rosario (1-5) Kiaran McLaughlin (0-5)

Notes: I can’t say enough about the job McLaughlin did with him between the Fountain of Youth and the Wood Memorial. He turned for home in the Fountain of Youth with a two length lead and appeared to be on cruise control. 15 seconds later he was fourth. So Kiaran deconstructed this colt. He discovered a breathing problem so he had a minor, common throat surgery performed. He fiddled with the newly added blinkers. He changed riders to Rosario. The result: a hand ride victory in the Wood Memorial where he closed from last into a slow pace while racing widest of all. The scratch moves him from the first stall of the auxiliary gate to the last stall of the main gate but that shouldn’t be an issue since he’ll still have a bit of wiggle room leaving out of there. It’ll just be on his right side as opposed to his left. His outside draw was key, in my opinion, because he doesn’t seem to like being inside of horses. That shouldn’t be a problem from this post. I’m using him in all of my wagers, especially at that price.

16 - War Story 50/1 Joe Talamo (0-1) Tom Amoss (0-3)

Notes: Boy, did I love this guy earlier in the year. He won both of his starts last year, then ran a good second in the LeComte before a wide trip in the Risen Star where he had to settle for place money again. He was primed to turn the tables on International Star in the Louisiana Derby. He broke well, was in contention and appeared poised to pounce on the far turn and then….nothing. He didn’t fire one bit. I watched the replay a few times and I’ve come to the conclusion that he just doesn’t want any part of the distance. AND they are taking the blinkers off, a big no-no in my book. Why would you make an equipment change in the Kentucky Derby? He’s not getting any of my money.

17 - Mr. Z 50/1 Ramon Vazquez (Debut) D Wayne Lukas (4-47)

Notes: You know, maybe Zayat will scratch him and El Kabeir so American Pharoah can move in a couple of spots. That would be the smartest thing they could do. Scratch. This horse doesn’t belong and the only reason he is here is because his owner and trainer have enormous egos and just love seeing their names in those proverbial lights. Nothing more than a pace player.

18 - American Pharoah 5/2 Victor Espinoza (2-6) Bob Baffert (3-24)

Notes: Your morning line favorite is a three time grade 1 winner and comes into this off of a pair of blowout scores at Oaklawn in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, a race in which he sat off a pacesetter for the first time in his career. He’s getting all of the attention, with folks in his home state of California going as far as to compare him to Seattle Slew, a horse who went through the Triple Crown undefeated in 1977. I think they’re out of their minds. This horse hasn’t really beaten much, something you can say about all of them, but the difference is he’s 5/2 on the board and the rest are going to be much higher. He’s been racing and training in a shoe that has a bar on it to protect part of the injured hoof that forced him to miss the B.C. Juvenile last year. His connections are downplaying it, going as far as to say it’s not a big deal or even a bar shoe. But it is and it is. They’ve been playing catch-up all year, as Baffert crammed a bunch of works into him in February in order to have him ready for the Rebel. This will be his third race in seven weeks after being off over five months and they want him to go this distance with a bar shoe. I’m not saying he’s not an excellent mover or that he isn’t talented. He absolutely is. I probably don’t think as highly of him as most do but he is a good horse. I just think this is too much to ask of him. This field offers a ton of value and is as deep as they come. Using him on the bottom of my exotics based solely on his raw ability but I’m hoping he’s off the board.

19 – Upstart 15/1 Jose Ortiz (0-1) Rick Violette, Jr. (0-2)

Notes: Another who came into the season with a large bandwagon and they had to be ecstatic after his daylight score to start the year in the Holy Bull. But things have gotten strange since. He looked beat on the far turn in the Fountain of Youth before eventually picking up the pieces to win by almost three lengths but was erroneously disqualified from the win. Things got even stranger in the Florida Derby when he was interfered with in the stretch and the stewards didn’t even look at it while his rider was told he was too late to claim foul. Needless to say the Gulfstream Park stewards and this guy’s connections won’t be sending Christmas cards to each other this year. My biggest problems with him are the fact that he had every chance to get by Materiality last time before getting bothered but couldn’t and he missed some time a few weeks back after spiking a fever. Everything needs to go perfectly this time of year and they haven’t. For those reasons, I’m out.

20 - Far Right 30/1 Mike Smith (1-20) Ron Moquett (Debut)

Notes: Looked good winning his first two starts of the year from far back at Arkansas and has shown the ability to get through traffic and win along the inside, great qualities in such a large field. His deep closer running style fits Smith, who won this in that manner with Giacomo back in 2005 at 50-1, and the post is no big deal because of it. American Pharoah beat him by eight lengths last out but Smith said he wasn’t going to catch the winner so he made sure he got the place money and the points. He’s run three times over the course, including a maiden tally and should benefit from the hot pace. Would need everything to break perfectly to win it, and I’m not saying he will, but stranger things have happened. Using him in all of my exotic wagers.

21 – Frammento 50/1 Corey Nakatani (0-17) Nick Zito (2-25)

Notes:
Zito really wanted to get him in and got his wish when Pletcher scratched Stanford Thursday afternoon. He’s won just once in seven tries but has run better since adding blinkers two back when he was third in the Fountain of Youth and the only horse really running at the end. Zito has been saying he is a true 10 furlong horse. I will use him on the bottom half of my exotics.

22 – Tale of Verve AE B.J. Hernandez, Jr. (Debut) Dallas Stewart (0-2)

Notes: From the trainer that brought you your last two longshot Derby runner-ups, Golden Soul and Commanding Curve, he finally broke his maiden in start six last out going 1 3/16 miles at Keeneland. Wasn’t even mentioned in the same breath as the Derby until entry day. I can see why. He needs another scratch to get in and about 15 more after that to have a chance at hitting the board.

Kentucky Derby Analysis
By Chris Andrews
Againstthenumber.com

Ocho Ocho Ocho - He was a very nice horse as a 2-year old. He failed in is 3-year old bow in the San Felipe, then ran a dull third in the Blue Grass. He likes to be near the front, but not necessarily on the lead. The one hole certainly didn’t help him, but I honestly think postpositions can be greatly overrated. At the end of the race someone will have a great trip and a bunch of them won’t. If he breaks well, the inside might not be the worst thing in the world. He is from Street Sense, who won the Kentucky Derby, BC Juvenile and Travers. He also has a very interesting bottom line with a broodmare sire, Horse Chestnut, who traces back to Sadlers Wells, the greatest modern stamina influence. Horse Chestnut (can that be his real name?) won the South African Derby at 12½ furlongs, so stamina should not be an issue. His dam also traces to the undefeated Personal Ensign, an all-time great race mare. Ocho Ocho Ocho is bred for this. I just don’t know that he’s good enough. James Cassidy trains and Elvis Trujillo rides.

Carpe Diem - It took $1.6 million to nab this guy out of the auction ring. He’s earned almost all of that back with 4 wins and 1 second in 5 starts. His worst race was in the BC Juvenile when he was second to Texas Red. Todd Pletcher sure gets his share of the high priced yearlings, and why not? He does a great job with them. He is another horse who likes to be near the lead, but not necessarily on it. He’ll need to get out quickly to avoid possible problems. He’s got the right jock to run this race the way it needs to be done. Velasquez chose him over Materiality, so that has to mean something. After breaking his maiden at first asking he has been in three Grade I’s and a Grade II. His wins have always been rather convincing, so his less than spectacular Byers are excusable. He is definitely a good one. He is from Giant’s Causeway, who won and sired winners at classic distances. His dam has produced two other stakes winners, which is why he went for such a high price tag. John Velasquez rides, Todd Pletcher trains.

Materiality - Undefeated but lightly raced. He has shown nothing but ability. Unfortunately he has also never faced more than 8 other horses. He has always been on the lead or right off it. I’m not sure he is prepared for what he is facing here. He has a Grade I win under his belt, beating Upstart in the Florida Derby, so he has some real quality. A win by this horse would break the Apollo curse. (No horse since Apollo has won the Derby without racing as a 2- year old.) With so many horses being lightly raced nowadays, it will happen sooner or later. It wouldn’t shock the world if Materiality were the one to do it. He is from Afleet Alex, winner of the Belmont at 1½ miles (12 furlongs). He is a half to My Miss Sophia, who won the Gazelle and placed in the Kentucky Oaks. Julian Castillo rides and Todd Pletcher trains.

Tencendur - He has been caught wide in three straight graded stakes in New York. He has rallied in each of those races, but was not good enough to overcome the obstacles. He took the lead in the Wood Memorial, but wound up losing it to Frosted at the wire. Trainer George Weaver has changed jocks a few times and changes once again. He looks like he wants to go a piece of ground, though you have to go back a couple generations to find horses that actually have done that. His sire, Warriors Reward, was primarily a sprinter though he is from Medaglia D’Oro, a classic influence on the track and in the breeding shed. He would be a real longshot, but he’s got a puncher’s chance. Manuel Franco rides for trainer George Weaver.

Danzig Moon - He showed some good promise, but it took three tries to break his maiden. He was a poor 4th in the Tampa Bay Derby and not overly impressive in the Blue Grass, both won by Carpe Diem. He is from the lightly raced Malibu Moon, who has been a bigger influence in the breeding shed than he was on the track, out of a Danzig mare. His paternal grandsire is A.P. Indy, so stamina is present there. It would take a big step forward to win this race. Julian LeParoux rides, Mark Casse trains.

Mubtaahij - He is the only horse in the race who has raced beyond 1 and 1/8 miles. He’s done it twice and won both times. Some handicappers have discounted his wins because of the supposed speed figures, but the won those races with a great turn of foot while in the stretch. He has shown, more than any other horse, that the distance will not be the problem. He is from Dubawi, who has raced and bred primarily turf runners. However, on the same day Mubtaahij won the UAE Derby, Dubawi’s son Prince Bishop won the 10 furlong Dubai Gold Cup over California Chrome, the richest race in the world. Both those races were on the dirt. Winning the Derby from overseas has never been done before, but it is another accomplishment that will happen eventually. I’ve written numerous times how American thoroughbreds are bred as stoutly as they were only a few generations ago. That is both for stamina and durability. European horses may be bred with the same durability, but they are bred for much more stamina. European horses winning our classics are a matter of time. Just look how well they perform in the Breeders Cup. Mike de Kock is a trainer who has won races on four continents. He is a solid horseman from the old school who has also embraced the scientific methodology of latest technology available. He’s getting my win bet. Christophe Soumillon, one of the world’s top jocks, rides for de Kock.

El Kabeir - This horse rarely runs a bad race, but somehow he has not impressed me. He has raced primarily at New York tracks, but has one race and one win at Churchill Downs. He likes to be off the pace a bit, but not too far back. I like his running style better than I like the horse. He is owned by the Zayats, who have had a lot of success and are very good for racing. They have other chances in the race that I like a lot better. El Kabeir is from Scat Daddy out of an Unbridled Song mare. He looks like a 1 1/8 horse at the most. Calvin Borel (who has won three Derbies) rides for John Terranova. SCRATCHED

Dortmund - Bob Baffert’s second stringer in 6 for 6 with over $1.2 million in the bank. He likes to be on the lead, but that will be difficult to accomplish here. He has come off the pace a couple times but those were early in his career. He has a couple races with 10 horses or more in the race, which means something. However, Dortmund is a huge horse, over 17½ hands tall. He will have more trouble steering through a crowd than a smaller horse would. It’s like a luxury car instead of a sports car. That will hurt. He is a son of Big Brown out of a Tale Of The Cat mare. I somehow think he is not a mile and ¼ horse. I don’t see a lot of value in him, but I know he is a hell of a horse. You can’t bet them all though. Martin Garcia rides for Bob Baffert.

Bolo - He looks like he is bred for the turf. In fact, he is undefeated in three turf starts. His sire, Temple City, traces to Dynaformer, who is one on the most significant turf and stamina influences in racing. Dynaformer was the sire of Barbaro, so his influence has also translated to success on the main track, as well. Bolo has been wide in his last two races, both against Dortmund, in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. He was beaten, but I liked the way he finished in each race. There is always racing luck, and he didn’t have much of it either loss. Bolo has Seattle Slew in his dam’s pedigree, so there is some solid classic influence there. His career might be slated for the turf eventually, but he is live here, too. If he doesn’t win this one, I would wait on him until the Belmont. The mile and a half looks like it’s right up his alley. He is ridden by Raphael Bejarano, one of my all time favorite jocks, and trained by Carla Gaines.

Firing Line - This one is dangerous. Gary Stevens rides this horse that will be on the pace. Stevens has won races like this before with horses just like this one. He doesn’t ride as often as he used to, but bet against him at your own peril. Firing Line has 2 wins and 3 seconds in 5 starts. Two of his losses were in stretch drives where he was barely beaten by Dortmund. While Dortmund will get a lot more action at the window, I think Firing Line has a much better chance to win the race. His pedigree is not dotted with the most popular names in today’s thoroughbreds but they are good producers of runners with speed and stamina. Besides, horses outrun their pedigrees all the time. You don’t have to look any further than last year’s Derby winner, California Chrome. You might not recognize the names, but Firing Line is from Line Of David out of a Hold For Gold mare. Further back you can find more common names like Conquistador Cielo, Roberto, Danzig, Seattle Slew, Storm Cat and Raise A Native. Firing Line is coming off a 14 length victory and the race was just as impressive as it sounds. This guy can really run. Stevens rides for trainer Simon Callaghan.

International Star - Ken and Sarah Ramsey are some of my favorite owners. They have had a ton of success, but not at the Derby. International Star has won three in a row now, all Graded stakes, and I have yet to be impressed. In the Louisiana Derby jockey Miguel Mena hit him 26 times in the stretch. Yes he held of to win by a short neck, but it sure took a lot of effort. He’s beaten a couple horses in this race and pocketed over $1 million in his career. Somehow I think we’ve already seen his best. He is from Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus out of a French Deputy mare. The breeding is there, but I don’t think he has the talent to match.
Itsaknockout- Another big priced yearling that winds up in Todd Pletcher’s barn. He is very lightly raced with only two starts this year. He laid off the pace a bit and had some mild rallies in him, but they weren’t nearly good enough to win. He is a son of Lemon Drop Kid out of a Cherokee Run mare. The progeny of Lemon Drop Kid love a piece of ground and often mature late. He looks like he’ll be a good one, but not yet. Luis Saez rides for Pletcher.

Keen Ice - Dale Romans always shoots a bit high with his horses, and this one is no exception. After breaking his maiden he has run in nothing but graded company and has two thirds to show for his efforts. He is from Curlin out of an Awesome Again mare. He should be one to contend with some day. I’ll bet this Saturday isn’t the day. Kent Desormeaux rides for Romans.

Frosted - A lot of wiseguys like this horse. He had a nasal blockage that hit him right in the middle of the stretch in the Fountain Of Youth. He looked like he was home in that race, then in mid stretch his head reared back and he essentially quit. After that race is when they discovered the blockage. It has since been corrected in a relatively minor procedure. He came back to win the Wood Memorial after that and looked like his old self. If you toss that one race, he has yet to throw in a bad one. He has a good running style that matches how a lot horses win this race. Ideally he’ll be a couple lengths off the pace before the stretch drive where he’ll make his move. The Godolphin people have been trying to win this race for years. This homebred gives them a good chance to do so. Frosted is by Tapit out of a Deputy Minister mare who was a stakes winner herself, Fast Cookie. Joel Rosario rides for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.

War Story - After breaking his maiden at Churchill, he has been on the Louisiana circuit. There he has been running behind International Star without a whole lot of success. He has a good, off the pace, stalking running style. His bloodlines are decent, he is a half to another stakes winner. I just don’t see the talent to win a race anywhere near this level at this point in time. Joe Talamo rides for Thomas Amos.

Mr. Z - Another of the Zayat runners, this one in D. Wayne Lukas’ barn. Say what you will about Lukas, and I’ve knocked him plenty over the years, but he runs his horses like they did in the old days. Meaning, a lot. Mr. Z has 12 lifetime starts but has yet to win after breaking his maiden at first asking. He has run in nothing but stakes company, so he has over $600,000 in the bank. Lukas hasn’t missed too many dances with this one, and he always gives an honest effort. He just can’t break into the win column. There are only a couple clunkers on his resume, but I just don’t see him getting any better. The Zayats bought him for $135,000 and they try not to buy too many stiffs. He is from Malibu Moon out of a Storm Cat mare. He also is from a very good female family who has produced $3 million winner Chief Bearhart who was beast on the turf. Luke has pulled the upsets before, so don’t be too shocked if he does it again. Ramon Vazquez rides for Lukas.

American Pharoah - Wow. Not much more you can say about this one. He has been a monster on the track and the deserving favorite. He ran poorly in his first start, then nothing but wins ever since. Not only that, he has hardly been challenged. He has been mostly on the lead, but he doesn’t look like he has to be. I think he will try to lay off this pace and move to the leaders on the turn. He looks like he is improving, too. His Byer figures have been steady, but his wins have gotten easier. If he can get his trip and run his race, he will be awfully hard to beat. Of course, that doesn’t always happen in a 20 horse field. Unfortunately he has been so impressive, the value has been taken out of any bets with him. If you want to maximize that value, you’ll have to get creative with some exotics. Derby pools can offer some value even with an over bet winner, so be aware of some other possibilities. He has the bloodlines to stay the mile and a quarter, too. He is from Pioneer Of The Nile out of a Yankee Gentleman mare. Pioneer Of The Nile ran second in the Derby, while his grandsire Empire Maker won the Belmont. One more generation back is Unbridled, winner of the Derby and Breeders Cup Classic. He is another Zayat owned horse, this one trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by last year’s Derby winning jock Victor Espinoza.

Upstart - I really like this horse. I know a lot of handicappers, many whom I respect, have soured on him. But I haven’t. He had a little blip in his training with a fever he ran for a day. Since then he has come back nicely. He is another one who will be comfortable just off the pace. He has three races with Byer figures of over 100. Only American Pharoah has more, while Dortmund has the same. He is also a battler who will look a horse in the eye and race to the wire. He has classic stayers all throughout his pedigree, too. His sire, Flatter is from the great stayer A.P. Indy, who won the Belmont and Breeders Cup classic. A.P. Indy’s sire is triple crown winner Seattle Slew. His dam sire is Touch Gold, winner of the Derby and second in the Preakness and Belmont. Buckpasser, Northern Dancer and Secretariat also appear in his pedigree. Look for the outside post to help Upstart as he won’t be tempted to go to the front too early. There is always the danger of being carried wide into the first turn, but there is danger everywhere in a 20 horse field. Look for him to lay off the pace and move on the turn for home. If he isn’t the winner, don’t eliminate him from your exotics. He could be passing some tired horses in the stretch. Hose Ortiz rides for Richard Violette.

Far Right - Rush Limbaugh will be all over this one. Just kidding. This is a pretty nice horse that is improving. His improvement has come with distance, too. He is one who is definitely looking to lay well off the pace. He is also one of the few horses in the race who would benefit from coming out the far outside. He won a couple in a row, then ran second behind American Pharoah in his last race. There isn’t a ton of stamina in his pedigree, but there is some class. We can find In excess, who did win at 10 furlongs but was better at 9 furlongs. There is also Seattle Slew, Nijinsky, Affirmed and Strawberry Road not too far back in his bloodlines. He might have picked up the number one jockey in the world, too, when Mike Smith got the mount. You might have to throw a couple bucks on Smitty if he was riding a Clydesdale. Ronald Moquett, who I must admit I don’t know much about, is the trainer.

Frammento - He draws in after Stanford scratched. Nick Zito loves these big races. If not to win to at least run in them. This looks more like a race he’s going to run in without a very big shot to win. He has a maiden win under his belt and that’s about it. There is third in the Fountain Of Youth that’s pretty good and a fourth in the Blue Grass. Anything is possible, I guess, but this one would be a shocker. He is a son of Midshipman who was an effective miler. His dam is from Golden Missile who was a solid performer at classic distances with multiple placings, though he never won beyond 9½ furlongs. It probably won’t be the distance that beats his horse, but the talent. He doesn’t have enough of it. He is ridden by Cory Nakatani and trained by Nick Zito.

Kevin Cox

1. Mubtaahij
2. International Star
3 Materiality
4 Dortmund
5 El Kabeir

Well here it is, the granddaddy of them all---The Kentucky Derby. You know, when you do this for a living, your first goal is to always make a dollar. However with this race, there's a certain amount of pride in getting the winner ( or even a nice priced runner up ! ). On a personal note, our winners over the last 25 years have been Strike The Gold ( 1991-$11 ), War Emblem ( 2002-$43 ) and Funny Cide ( 2003-$28 ). Cool thing about that last one is that just this past year, I ended up becoming good friends with 'Cide's owner, nice guy, Jack Knowlton. ( Amazing how things come full circle in this game. ). Well, by looking at those prices above, and for those that read me on a regular basis, it's pretty fair to say that I look for a nice number whenever possible. This year is the deepest field I think I've ever seen in my lifetime, and unlike Derby's in years gone by, where many runners are hardly heard from again, I believe you'll be hearing a whole hell of a lot from the majority of these throughout this year and next. Okay, now to quote R. Lee Ermey from 'Full Metal Jacket', let's "Hit it, sweetheart !" ...... The connections of the #6 MUBTAAHIJ are endeavouring to set some trends with a win in this years run for the roses in looking to become the first: Irish bred/Saudi Based/South African trained/French ridden animal to win the worlds greatest race. DeCock is doing it in thoroughly unconventional style---sans Lasix. Now, while there have in fact been winners of this race that didn't use the drug, it's extremely avante garde to attempt to do such a thing. I say that because the use of it has become so farcical that you can have a full field of unraced 2 year olds at Saratoga, or the best on the planet in the Breeders' Cup, and they'll mostly ALL be using the stuff, which is a crock, as they're not all bleeders, but it "helps 'em run faster". Whatever. Additionally, this colt that is just a noggin' shy of a perfect 5 for 5 dirt record, trains without shoes ! ( How cool is that ! ) He'll reportedly be shod the morning of the race. Okay, neat factoids aside, why do we like the animal ? Well, the 8 length win in Dubai was visually impressive, he's the only entrant to have run ( and won ) at a distance farther than a mile and an eighth, he is battle tested ( faced an average field size of 10.1 in his career, and just Keen Ice has faced more ), been looking great in the mornings, boasts the highest Tomlinson at this distance ( by 30 points, which is substantial ), and if you still are a beliver in the Dosage theory ( which I have no problem looking at ), is one of 7 in here that fit the parameters. Furthermore ( and heretofore, and shut the door ! ) his style of racing is perfectly suited for how I believe the race will set up. Half this field were no farther back than 3 lengths at the first point of call in their most recent start, and with 20 horses signed on, I'm envisioning a glut of runners gunning for position early. Now look at the race comments for our top choice: "Tracked leader", "Tracked leaders", "Tracked leaders", "Tracked leader", "Tracked leaders". Get the point ? This horse can allow himself to be put wherever the pilot wants him ( and who's better than riding covered up, but European jockeys ? ) and patiently wait for that ( inevitable ) daylight late. I'm diggin' the scene at 20-1, you hep cats ! Well, as we just gave a "multi-country" analogy a few sentences back, it's only apropos that the #12 INTERNATIONAL STAR will be our next selection. This chap has been extremely professional of late, and just take a gander at those adjusted ascending Beyers, will ya ? --- 84.7--88.1--91.5--96. That's basically a 4% increase in each of those starts, and if it were to occur again, than a 100 or so would put this one in the hunt. Definitely a New York Bred worth rooting for ( and tossing a couple of fazools on ). I've kinda flip flopped my 3rd and 4th selections from a radio interview I did earlier today, so full disclosure here. If there were ever anybody that could get the most out of a speed horse in a field laden with speed---ever a jockey that you should not discount on an undefeated animal at 12-1---that would be Javier Castellano on the #3 MATERIALITY. The numbers are most definitely going in the right direction, and if Dortmund stubs his hoof, and American Pharoah not dig being in a different zip code, well then, hey nowwwwww...... As a numbers guy, obviously I love the #8 DORTMUND, and what's not to like ? He's powerful, beautiful, and BIG. But therein lies the rub. He's big. The biggest horse in the field with legs like a giraffe is more likely to run into some trouble with the other 76 legs on the track, no ? Plus, what about his own gams ? What if he doesn't get a chance to unfurl those big, beautiful things like he wants to ? Listen, don't get me wrong, I'll be using this fella in my rollers, and if he wins, I'll most definitely tip my cowboy hat to him. But at 3-1 ? Nah. For super hi-5 purposes, we'll slide the #7 El KABEIR in there, due to the noticeable change in tactics in the last two outings, as well as a switch from C.C. Lopez to Calvin Borel, which at this trip, is akin to a 5 pound break. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #18 AMERICAN PHAROAH has never broken farther out than the 6 hole ( has the 17 chute today ), will not get an easy lead, and ( for whatever it's worth ) doesn't fit on Dosage. Take 5-2 or less on this horse ? Not with a potato gun to my head.

Pace Advantage

Dortmund (5-2)
American Pharoah (7-1)
Firing Line (10-1)
Materiality (15-1)
Upstart (20-1)
Bolo (21-1)
Mr. Z (21-1)

An interesting and talented field appears to be assembled for Kentucky Derby 141. We have two undefeated horses in Dortmund and Materiality trying to extend their perfect records, and an almost-undefeated horse in American Pharoah installed as the likely post-time favorite.

Then we have the pace. There are a bunch of horses that like to run on or close to the lead, and quite a few that will be racing mid-pack. Then we have a handful of plodders. The plodders have the best closing numbers (not unexpectedly), but they are otherwise lousy horses overall. The best of the deep closers appears to be Far Right. But even at 40-1 (his current early price), I wouldn't touch him.

I always like to see at least a halfway decent closing number on a horse I am backing in the Kentucky Derby, so I'm kind of hoping Firing Line starts to drift up in price a tad from his current 9-1 price. He has decent enough positional early speed and a decent closing number for this group. He'll be an interesting horse to watch during the race.

Interestingly enough, the horse with the best last-out Beyer number, Materiality with a 110 earned in the Florida Derby, is currently being given the cold shoulder in the early wagering at 17-1.

The horse I'm going to take my stand with though, is Dortmund. And I hate backing a horse in a race like this at less then double digit prices (although he is 9-2 in the early going - technically double digits), but I do like this horse a lot. He's 6 for 6 lifetime and has won from on and off the pace (although not too far off, considering he's never been behind more than 2.5 lengths at any point of call of any of his races). My only worry will be how he responds to that last quarter mile. His closing number is pretty blah, so if he gets in a tussle early, it may be lights out for him in the end. I think he's versatile enough to work out a perfect trip, no matter what the early pace throws at him. If they go fast early, he'll settle in behind. If they all take back, he'll go to the front. In the Derby, versatile is the way to be.

The horse I'm taking a stand against is American Pharoah. He's got a couple of horses faster than him early, despite his positional brilliance thus far. He may have a tougher time securing good position early. And his closing number is a tad lame. That's what really concerns me. He's also been facing lesser foes than Dortmund, so he might be a bit "dressed up" on paper. They can take their favoritism. I want no part of this horse on the top end.

Usually, in races like this, I like to spread, as anyone who has watched this board over the years has seen. Often times, that pays big dividends, as it did in the 2014 Breeders' Cup. However, in this year's Derby, I don't think it's going to be worth it to back fringe contenders at a price. Once you get past Dortmund, American Pharoah and Firing Line, in my opinion, the reward won't be worth the risk, even if some of my lesser contenders go off above their value line. Firing Line is the only other horse I'll be keeping a hard eye on if Dortmund gives me the price I need.

If, however, Dortmund gets pounded below 3-1 at the windows (and I don't really see this happening), then maybe I will spread far and wide. But if I'm getting a solid 3-1 on Dortmund, I'm going to play him hard and do most of my spreading underneath in the exacta and try to catch a flyer.

Kentucky Derby Past Performances