Kentucky Derby Betting News and Notes

Derby Contenders - Part I
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

The first of our four part Kentucky Derby preview series features the three runners trained by Todd Pletcher - Always Dreaming, Tapwrit and Patch – as well as Gunnevera and McCracken.

Pletcher will be looking to improve on his dreadful record in the Derby, with his lone win coming in 2010 when Super Saver bounded home in the slop. He’s run 45 horses in all and will tie his mentor, Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, for the most horses started in the Derby if all three go on Saturday.

G1 Florida Derby winner Always Dreaming leads the trio. Always Dreaming began his career with a pair of losses as a two-year-old in the barn of Dom Schettino before being transferred to Pletcher as part of a newly formed partnership between Brooklyn Boyz and St Elias Stables.

He made his first start for his new barn on a Wednesday afternoon in late January, with Hall of Famer rider John Velazquez taking the trip to Tampa Bay Downs to pilot him to an easy, 11½ length maiden tally going a mile and 40 yards, his first start around two turns and off of a five month layoff. He stretched out even further to nine furlongs on the undercard of the G2 Fountain of Youth undercard at Gulfstream Park and promptly won an entry level allowance/optional claimer by four lengths.

Despite a pair of sharp tallies, Always Dreaming didn’t have a single Derby point to his name so Pletcher pointed him to the Florida Derby. Sent off as the 5-2 second choice in the wagering, Always Dreaming was never far from the lead, sitting a length or so off of pacesetter State of Honor before taking him on and rushing past on the turn on his way to a five length score in a solid 1:47 2/5 for the nine panels, a time that was over six seconds faster than his previous win at the distance.

Always Dreaming, like all three Pletcher runners, did most of his training for this at his Palm Beach Downs winter base, where he worked twice, before firing a bullet on Friday, April 28 at Churchill Downs, going five furlongs in :59 3/5 under Velazquez. Velazquez won his lone Derby in 2011 aboard Animal Kingdom.

Tapwrit, a $1.2 million yearling purchase by red-hot sire Tapit, will look to rebound from a dull, fifth place finish in the G1 Blue Grass. Tapwrit was blown out in his sprint debut before Pletcher added blinkers and stretched him out to break his maiden around two turns at Gulfstream Park West and win a minor stakes at Gulfstream, both at a mile.

After a two month break, Tapwrit kicked off his sophomore season in the G3 Sam F Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. Reserved in mid-pack on the backstretch, new rider Jose Ortiz began to move on the turn and opted to go up the inside. Unfortunately, the hole never materialized and he was forced to alter course to the outside but by then it was too late as McCracken parlayed an outside trip into a victory. Tapwrit kept coming to finish second, leading some to believe he was actually best that day.

Those of that belief were rewarded a month later in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. With McCracken sidelined, Tapwrit was sent off as the 11-10 favorite and sat the same trip he did in the Davis. But this time, Ortiz circled his overmatched rivals before drawing off to a four-and-a-half length tally in stakes record time.

Things didn’t go as well in Lexington, Kentucky at Keeneland in the Blue Grass. Sent to post as the 2-1 second choice, Tapwrit didn’t break well, had little pace to run at over a somewhat speed-favoring course and trudged home fifth, nearly a dozen lengths behind Irap, who was still a maiden going into the race.

Perhaps Tapwrit “bounced” off of his top effort at Tampa and will get a better setup in the Derby. He finished his serious prep on Friday, April 28 with a five furlong move, in company with stablemate Patch, in 1:00 2/5.

Speaking of Patch, he is just one of two set to contest the Derby while taking on the Apollo Curse at the same time. For those of you not familiar with the proverbial king of the “Derby Rules,” no horse has won the roses without a race as a two-year-old since Apollo did it in 1872.

Patch, who got his name because he was born with just one eye, didn’t start until mid-January. He finished second in a sprint at Gulfstream before stretching out to break his maiden over the Hallandale Beach oval going a flat mile.

Another in need of points, Pletcher shipped Patch to the Fair Grounds for the G2 Louisiana Derby. Under new rider Tyler Gaffalione, Patch was bothered a bit at the break from his rail draw but ,managed to make his way into contention on the far turn along the inside and stayed on to finish a good second to G2 Risen Star winner Girvin.

Gunnevera will look to turn the tables on Always Dreaming after a third place finish in the Florida Derby for trainer Antonio Sano, who was kidnapped twice in his native Venezuela before coming to south Florida.

Gunnevera came into this year with plenty of foundation under his belt. A three time winner as a juvenile, including scores in the G2 Saratoga Special and G3 Delta Jackpot, he had run six times in all before hitting the track this year in the G2 Holy Bull, his first start in 10 weeks. Irish War Cry was left alone on the front end, a development that usually doesn’t bode well for a deep closer like Gunnevera, but he still put in a mild late rally to finish second.

Things went a bit differently in the Fountain of Youth. Three Rules, being chased this time by Irish War Cry, went a quick :47 second opening half-mile and the racetrack seemed to be playing favorably for horses coming from off the pace. Gunnevera took supreme advantage. Castellano turned him loose approaching the far turn and stormed past the embattled leader at the top of the stretch in route to a widening, daylight victory.

It was evident early on the card that Gulfstream reverted to its speed-favoring ways on Florida Derby Day, a bad sign for the 11-10 favorite. Sure, Gunnevera got plenty of pace ton at but couldn’t muster any better than a third place finish despite putting in his patented late rally.

Like the Pletcher runners, Gunnevera did most of his work for this in south Florida at Sano’s Gulfstream Park West base but completed his serious training with a “maintenance” move, according to Sano, over Churchill, going five furlongs in a leisurely 1:03 3/5 on Friday, April 28.

McCracken will look to get back on track after suffering the first loss of his career when third in the Blue Grass last time out, just his second start in what’s been a bit of an abbreviated season.

You couldn’t have asked for a better start to a career. All three of his wins, including the Street Sense and G2 KJC, as a juvenile occurred at Churchill Downs and he handled the progression in distance like an old pro.

He made his first start this year off of an 11 week layoff in the Davis. While Tapwrit was getting into his traffic trouble, Brian Hernandez Jr. had his charge in the four path and made what proved to be a winning move off of the far turn to get the money by one-and-a-half lengths.

A Tampa Bay Derby try was planned but had to be abandoned after McCracken strained his ankle preparing for the race. Trainer Ian Wilkes laid out a new plan, one that brought McCracken back to the bluegrass for the Blue Grass.

By all accounts, McCracken did not have the best of trips at Keeneland. He broke awkwardly, rushed up a bit between horses down the backstretch then flattened out off of the turn to finish third. It wasn’t what you really wanted to see from a horse in just his second prep for the Derby, especially when he was originally supposed to have three.

Unlike the vast majority of his rivals, he’s had the convenience of training at Churchill for the better part of the past month since Wilkes stables there. He finished his serious training with a sharp five furlong move in 1:00 3/5 on Sunday, April 30.

Derby Contenders - Part II
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

The second of our four part Kentucky Derby preview series features the two runners from the Mark Casse barn – Classic Empire and State of Honor – as well as the three from Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen – Hence, Untrapped and Lookin At Lee.

In what has been one of the most topsy-turvy Kentucky Derby Trails in history, perhaps no contender has had a stranger journey to the Run for the Roses than Classic Empire.

Classic Empire won four of his five starts as a two-year-old, including the G1 Breeders’ Futurity and G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile while on his way to tear end Eclipse honors. His lone defeat came in the G1 Hopeful when he wheeled at the start and dumped his rider as the 8-5 favorite. Behavioral problems nagged Classic Empire his entire life but the blinkers put on right before the Breeders’ Futurity seemed to help his cause greatly.

Coming into this year, Classic Empire had about as much Derby buzz as a horse could have. Not This Time, the Juvenile runner-up, was retired and it looked like there was a margin even greater than the seven-plus length chasm back to the third horse in the Juvenile to the next best sophomore.

That changed in a matter of moments after his seasonal bow in the G2 Holy Bull in early February at Gulfstream. Scratched down to a field of seven with the presence of the champ, Classic Empire was sent to post as the 1-2 prohibitive favorite despite the fact that he didn’t appear to be himself and was washed out on the track. He was cantankerous going to the gate and apparently left his race behind it, as he finished a non-threatening third despite sitting a good trip behind eventual winner Irish War Cry.

After the race, Casse revealed that Classic Empire shipped to Gulfstream on the morning of the race from his Palm Meadows base, something he had never done and that a foot abscess had been discovered. A back problem that developed in the following weeks would preclude the champ from running in the second round of prep races. Then things got really interesting.

Classic Empire refused to train. Workouts were aborted morning of as precious, missed time began mounting up. Casse decided to take him out of Florida and to a training center in Ocala, Florida. Classic Empire flourished and it was announced he’d have his final prep in the G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, just three weeks prior to the Kentucky Derby.

At Oaklawn in his first start at nine furlongs, Classic Empire didn’t have the best run into the first turn as he was forced to steady early but found his cadence down the backstretch under regular rider Julien Leparoux. He moved up approaching the turn but found himself in a dogfight with several others turning for home. He proved up to the task as he emerged from the pack in deep stretch with a powerful rally to get up by a half-length.

Casse said after the race that he wouldn’t do much with Classic Empire in the short time between races and stayed true to his word. He breezed an easy half mile in :49 1/5 on Friday, April 28 over the Churchill Downs course, a track he broke his maiden and won the G3 Bashford Manor on as a juvenile.

While stablemate Classic Empire figures to be off of the Derby pace, State of Honor should be right on it if he in fact is not setting it. Just one for six last year, he raced exclusively for Casse at Woodbine over the synthetic surface save one abysmal turf try.

This season, State of Honor has raced four times in stakes races on conventional dirt in Florida. In his first try, he came from off the pace to finish second after duking it out with Todd Pletcher’s Sonic Mule in the Mucho Macho Man going a one-turn mile.

In his next pair at Tampa, Casse added blinkers and State of Honor set the pace in both the G3 Sam F Davis and G2 Tampa Bay Derby. He dug in gamely to finish third behind McCracken in the Davis but gave it up a little more readily in the TB Derby when Tapwrit rolled on by.

State of Honor returned to Gulfstream without the blinkers for the G1 Florida Derby and parlayed a solid trip from just off of the pace into a second place finish behind Always Dreaming over a course favoring front runners. It was his third runner-up finish to a Pletcher-trained runner this year.

State of Honor has turned in the last of his three works at Churchill since the Florida Derby on Friday, April 28 going a half mile in :48 4/5. Jose Lezcano will ride.

In the Asmussen barn, Hence is the most accomplished of the trio and in fact was the only one that punched his own ticket to Louisville without any help.

Winless in three starts last season, Hence broke his maiden in his 2017 debut in the slop at Oaklawn. He stayed in Arkansas to try the G3 Southwest but failed to fire over a fast track and finished a well-beaten seventh.

Asmussen shipped Hence to Sunland Park for the doubly lucrative G3 Sunland Derby. Not only did it offer an $800K purse but it awarded 50 Derby points to the winner. As is often the case in the annual prep in New Mexico, they flew up front early, going :45 3/5 to the half as Hence lingered towards the back of the pack. He moved up while wide on the turn and made the lead when they straightened for home before pulling away from the speed in the final furlong to win by almost four lengths.

Hence has trained at Churchill since his score, some six weeks before the Kentucky Derby. He posted the last of his three major moves for this on Monday, May 1, going four furlongs in :48 4/5. Florent Geroux will ride for the first time.

Untrapped and Lookin At Lee were both on the outside looking in when it came to the Derby due to a lack of points but did draw into the field after several defections.

Untrapped broke his maiden in his second try last year, his lone start at Churchill, in a sprint as the 6-5 favorite. He earned points in his first three starts this year, runner-up finishes in both the G3 LeComte and G2 Risen Star, the latter behind Girvin, at the Fair Grounds before shipping to Oaklawn to run third in the G2 Rebel.

Last out, Untrapped raced with blinkers for the first time and was a bit more forwardly placed in the early going. He made a move towards the lead on the turn and was in the first scrum off the turn but faded to finish sixth, five lengths behind Classic Empire.

Ricardo Santana, Jr. was aboard for the first four starts of his career and will be again on Saturday. He posted his lone move for the race on Monday, May 1, going four furlongs in :50 2/5.

Lookin At Lee is a bit of a “wiseguy,” live longshot going into the first Saturday in May and was one a lot of folks were hoping would find his way into the field, likely based on the fact that he is a closer who always seems to be making up a bunch of ground at the end of his races.

Having already faced the starter nine times, Lookin At Lee is one of the most seasoned runners in the field but is winless in his last six starts. His two wins, including a minor stakes at Ellis, came around one turn. Asmussen added blinkers in his final juvenile try when he finished a dozen lengths behind Classic Empire in the B.C. Juvenile.

This season, he’s raced exclusively at Oaklawn. A third place finish in the G3 Southwest was followed by a sixth place finish in the Rebel.

His most impressive effort to date, one could argue, did come last out in the Arkansas Derby. Under Luis Contreras, Lookin At Lee was a couple of length closer to the front than usual but the forward placement was negated by the fact that he seemingly covered paths two through twelve from the far turn to the wire, eventually settling for third. If he kept a straight path, who knows what might have happened.

He too posted his only work since on Monday, May 1, going four furlongs in :50 1/5. Corey Lanerie will be aboard for the first time.

THANKS FOR THE DERBY POSTS BLADE.I' M A BIG HORSE RACING FAN!!

Who do you like in the Derby Ranger? I have to admit, I'm clueless when it comes to betting on ponies. I never got that education back in the day when I was coming up. Blade also actually knows quite a bit about horse racing as well. Maybe he will drop some knowledge this week.

Derby Contenders - Part 3
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

The third of our four part Kentucky Derby series previews Irish War Cry, Girvin, J Boys Echo, Practical Joke as well as Fast and Accurate.

Redemption has been a common theme on this long and winding Kentucky Derby Trail this year. A number of horses, for one reason or another, raced uncharacteristically poorly before regaining the spotlight in their subsequent start. And perhaps no horse did it better than Irish War Cry.

Trained by Graham Motion, who won this in 2011 with Animal Kingdom, Irish War Cry won both of his starts as a juvenile sprinting, including a minor stakes at Laurel before getting loose on the lead and going gate-to-wire in the G2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream over juvenile champ Classic Empire.

Irish War Cry put his undefeated record on the line in the G2 Fountain of Youth and the wheels came off the bus. Forced to chase a strong pace set by Three Rules, a position he had been put in before, over a track that wasn’t kind to front runners, Irish War Cry called it a day by the time they reached the far turn and folded like a cheap suit through the stretch, finishing over 20 lengths behind the winner as the 11-10 favorite.

Motion offered no viable excuse for Irish War Cry and pressed on. It was decided he’d come north for his final Derby prep, the G2 Wood Memorial in New York at Aqueduct going nine furlongs. Motion made a rider change to Rajiv Maragh. Maragh, involved in two major spills in the fall of 2014 and summer of 2015, had missed almost all of 2015 and 2016 but has been riding tremendously since returning in November.

Drawn outside in the field of eight, Irish War Cry found himself on the chase again. The result, however, was far different. Maragh attacked on the turn and after a brief encounter with the front runner, began to draw away in deep stretch to win by a widening three and a half lengths, a result the elicited a wonderful ovation from the faithful at the Big A as Maragh is a popular figure in the riding colony in the Big Apple.

Motion decided to keep his New Jersey-bred son of Curlin away from the hustle and bustle of the Derby buzz, training him at his Fair Hills base in Maryland. He completed his major work on Sunday, April 30 with Maragh aboard, going six panels in 1:13 1/5, meaning he won’t have an official workout over the course before the race.

Girvin led all three-year-olds with 150 points on the road to the Kentucky Derby. And for a while, once El Areeb went to the sidelines, was the only horse with two major prep wins under his belt for trainer Joe Sharp, perhaps best known until now for being the husband of former jockey Rosie Napravnik.

Girvin, who has raced exclusively at the Fair Grounds in Louisiana, won his lone start as a juvenile in a dirt sprint. This year, in his first start after a seven week break, he closed nicely to finish second in a minor turf stakes.

Sharp wheeled Girvin back in just three weeks for the G2 Risen Star. Dismissed at 8-1 by the betting public, Girvin took advantage of a solid :47 opening half mile, moved up on the turn after saving ground throughout and exploded in the lane to win by a couple of lengths.

A month later in the nine furlong, G2 Louisiana Derby, Girvin raced wide but got a similar pace setup and the benefit of the extra sixteenth of a mile to grind out a length and a quarter score under his regular rider Brian Hernandez, Jr. Since that day, however, everything has seemingly gone the wrong way.

First, Hernandez informed Sharp that he would stick with McCracken on the first Saturday in May. Sharp tried turning those lemons into lemonade by getting Hall of Fame, Derby winning rider Mike Smith to pilot his colt. “Money” Mike shocked the world with Giacomo to win the roses at better than 50-1 in 2005.

Then, the keen eye of a Bloodhorse magazine reporter noticed Girvin was wearing bar shoes as he returned from training one day. Sharp hushed up on the matter, shipped Girvin from his base at the Churchill Training Center to Keeneland so he could train over their synthetic training surface. Many felt it was a move made to get Girvin out of the spotlight.

It’s been said that Girvin will train with the bar shoes in the days leading up to the race but will run in conventional shoes. He finished his serious work on Saturday, April 29 going five furlongs over the main track at Keeneland in :59 3/5 under Napravnik and will ship to Churchill Downs on Tuesday.

For you Beyer Speed Figure fans, the Derby runner that posted the highest number on the Derby Trail was none other than the Dale Romans-trained J Boys Echo.

J Boys Echo broke his maiden second out and concluded his juvenile campaign with a fourth place finish behind Gunnevera in the G3 Delta Jackpot.

J Boys Echo began this year in New York with a third place finish after an impossible, off the pace trip over an inside, speed biased inner track at Aqueduct in the G3 Withers from post 10 behind the aforementioned El Areeb.

That best Beyer came next out in the G3 Gotham. A much hotter pace developed between the first two finishers in the Withers and J Boys Echo took advantage, sitting a much better trip from his rail draw to pounce on the turn and draw away to a three-plus length tally while posting a 102.

Romans decided to bring J Boys Echo back to the Kentucky for the G2 Blue Grass. Things didn’t go well at all. He was bumped and troubled at the break, didn’t get much pace to run at over a course that favored speed and just never looked like himself. Many felt he “bounced” off of his top effort in the Gotham, finishing fourth.

Regular rider Robby Albarado was injured a week or so back and will be forced to miss the Derby. The last time this happened to Albarado in 2011 he was replaced by John Velazquez aboard Animal Kingdom…..and the rest is history. Luis Saez gets the honors this time around. J Boys Echo has worked twice at Churchill, wrapping up his serious training with a five furlong move in 1:01 on Saturday, April 29.

Only three runners in this years’ Derby have won multiple G1 races. Chad Brown’s charge Practical Joke is one of them.

Practical Joke had one of the more accomplished juvenile campaigns. He won the first three starts of his career, including a pair of G1 races, the Hopeful at Saratoga and Champagne at Belmont. He ended the year nearly eight lengths behind Classic Empire in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he finished third after a bit of a rough trip in his first two turn try.

After a four month break, Practical Joke returned in the Fountain of Youth and again didn’t have the best go of it. He broke just a tad slow, found some trouble on the first turn and when they straightened down the backstretch. Still, he moved up approaching the far turn and made it to the leaders before Gunnevera blew by to win by daylight and he settled for second money.

While he had excuses in his first two starts around two turns, he had a good trip in the Blue Grass. A little more forwardly placed than he had been in his last two under Joel Rosario, who won this in 2013 with Orb, Practical Joke was in perfect position for the final three furlongs and had every chance to gun down the maiden Irap but couldn’t, finishing three-parts of a length behind the winner.

Brown has been tinkering with blinkers during Practical Joke’s training leading up to this and he will likely run in the Derby with them on for the first time. He worked five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 on Friday, April 28 in his lone move over the course.

Fast and Accurate punched his ticket to Louisville in the same fashion as Animal Kingdom, with a win in the G3 Spiral last out for trainer Mike Maker.

It took Fast and Accurate four starts to break his maiden, finally doing so in a $30K maiden claimer at Turfway Park on the front end in his final start of 2016 when he raced on Lasix for the first time.

This year, he won a split division of a minor turf stakes at Gulfstream in similar gate-to-wire fashion before coming from just off of the early pace in the Spiral.

Channing Hill, aboard for the maiden tally, will be reunited with him for the Derby. He went five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 under Hill on Sunday, April 30. It’s worth noting his lone start on conventional dirt was easily the worst of his career as he trudged home fifth in a race at Parx.

Derby Contenders - Part 4
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

The fourth and final Kentucky Derby preview takes a look at a Gormley, Irap, Thunder Snow, Battle of Midway and Sonneteer. Save Thunder Snow, a victory by one of the other four would give California-based runners their fourth consecutive victory in the Derby and fifth in the last six years.

From the barn of John Shirreffs, who posted one of the biggest upsets in Derby history when Giacomo stormed home first at 50-1 in 2005, Gormley figures to be much closer to the pace than his predecessor ever was if his past performances are any indication.

As a juvenile, Gormley won his first two starts, including the G1 Front Runner at Santa Anita before some trouble at the start helped lead to an off the board finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

After a two month freshening, Gormley returned in the G3 Sham in early January. Over a sloppy Santa Anita surface, Gormley duked it out on the front end for the better part of the one mile contest and eventually got the best of American Anthem by a head.

Another two month freshening and another Bob Baffert trainee awaited Gormley upon his return as Mastery was sent off as the heavy favorite in the G2 San Felipe. Under regular rider Victor Espinoza, a three time Derby winner who piloted War Emblem in 2002, California Chrome in 2014 and eventual Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015, Gormley was in the unfavorable position of chasing the eventual winner while racing between horses most of the way. He was the first to cave as he backed up approaching the far turn to finish fourth, nearly 10 lengths behind the ill-fated winner.

Shirreffs trained Gormley a bit differently heading into the G1 Santa Anita Derby. He slowed him down in the mornings, mostly by working him behind horses, and was rewarded with a thrilling half-length victory. Gormley lingered a handful of lengths off the pace as opposed to being right on it and was able to survive yet another dogfight through the lane as five or six of them appeared to have a chance in the lane.

Gormley will have had three works in the four weeks between his races, all coming at Santa Anita. On Saturday, April 29, he covered seven furlongs in 1:26 1/5 at the Great Race Place.

The impressive run of West Coast runners began back in 2012, when I’ll Have Another gave the trainer/jockey combo of Doug O’Neill and Mario Gutierrez their first taste of Derby victory. They liked the feeling so much they did it again last year with two-year-old champion Nyquist. In fact, they’re the only two mounts Gutierrez has had in the event.

This year, they bring Irap, a horse that was a maiden until he upset the applecart at 31-1 when he captured the G2 Blue Grass at Keeneland last out.

O’Neill tried everything with Irap. He ran four times as a juvenile, starting out his career with two turf tries that resulted in fourth and third place finishes, respectively. A well-beaten second to Mastery in the G1 Los Alamitos Derby followed before a fourth place finish in the slop some three weeks later on New Year’s Eve.

This year, Irap started out with a second place finish in a watered-down renewal of the G3 Robert Lewis where just five faced the starter and second and fourth place finishes in the Mine That Bird and G3 Sunland Derby, both at Sunland Park.

With O’Neill running four in the same-day Santa Anita Derby, Julien Leparoux took the reins from Gutierrez for the Blue Grass. Over a course that was kind to front runners, Irap was never more than a length from the lead and managed to hold off Practical Joke the entire length of the Keeneland stretch by three-quarters of a length despite racing on the wrong lead.

Irap remained at Keeneland to prepare for the Derby, posting a mile move on April 21 in 1:44 followed by a similar move in 1:44 1/5 on Friday, April 28.

One of the most powerful international entities in all of horse racing, Godolphin Racing, has been chasing the roses for the better part of the past two decades. They’ll do so again this year with Thunder Snow who is undefeated in two starts on dirt.

Trained by longtime Godolphin conditioner Saeed bin Suroor, Thunder Snow raced exclusively on turf last year, winning twice, including the G1 Criterium International, from six starts.

In his first start of 2017 off of a three-plus month layoff, he made his dirt debut in the G3 UAE 200 Guineas and thrashed a field of nine going a flat mile while carrying Derby-weight of 126 pounds, most of which was jockey Christophe Soumillon.

A muddy track going 1 3/16 miles awaited Thunder Snow some six weeks later in the G2 UAE Derby on the undercard of the Dubai World Cup. Like he did in his prior start, Thunder Snow sat just off the early lead but didn’t make the lead until late in the game and won a stretch duel with accomplished Japanese runner Epicharis by a nose against a bulky field of 16.

As is usually the case, Godolphin is marching to the beat of their own drummer. Thunder Snow didn’t arrive in the U.S. until Sunday, April 30, won’t hit the Churchill course until Tuesday due to quarantine, meaning it’s unlikely he’ll have a timed move before the race on Saturday.

Battle of Midway will look to overcome the Apollo Curse in the fifth start of his career as he seeks his first graded stakes victory. For more on the Apollo Curse, please see the preview of Patch in Part 1 of the Derby Preview.

Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, Battle of Midway won his January 21 debut over a wet-fast course at Santa Anita before finishing a well beaten third as the 4-5 favorite in the San Vicente.

A drop in class to the allowance/optional claiming ranks did the trick when he stretched out to two turns for the first time under his Derby pilot Flavien Prat. He won by a neck over the highly regarded but ill-fated Reach the World just a month before the Santa Anita Derby.

In that race, Battle of Midway unexpectedly contested a very fast early pace and was the last one standing from the speed duel in the stretch but couldn’t hold off Gormley and having to settle for second.

Battle of Midway was sold after that race but will remain with Hollendorfer. He too stayed in SoCal to do his Derby training, working three times including a six furlong drill in 1:13 2/5 on Friday, April 28, the day before he arrived at Churchill.

In what has been one of the wildest Derby Trails, perhaps Sonneteer could produce the wildest result of all since he is still a maiden after ten starts. The last maiden to win the Derby was Broker’s Tip in 1933.

Last year, the Desormeaux brothers, trainer Keith and brother Kent, a three time Derby winner having scored in 1998 with Real Quiet, in 2000 with Fusaichi Pegasus and with Big Brown in 2008, finished second with Exaggerator. One would think they’d be thrilled with a similar finish this year.

Sonneteer has hit the board in six of his 10 starts, including a runner-up performance in the Rebel at Oaklawn Park two starts back at 112-1. Last out, he closed from last to finish fourth, beaten two lengths, in the G1 Arkansas Derby.

He’s had a solitary work since the Arkansas Derby, going a half-mile in a strong :47 at Churchill on Monday, May 1 under jockey Corey Lanerie, who was subbing for Kent Desormeaux, who had travel issues.

Who do you like in the Derby Ranger? I have to admit, I'm clueless when it comes to betting on ponies. I never got that education back in the day when I was coming up. Blade also actually knows quite a bit about horse racing as well. Maybe he will drop some knowledge this week.

Mike ,I will probably post my choices on fri. nite or sat.. I need to pick up the racing form fri. and do some handicapping..This type of race is usually wide open,big fields

Cool, sounds good. I'm actually suppose to go watch some harness racing Friday night. My old lady has a friend who owns a horse and he's gonna be racing Friday.

Cool, sounds good. I'm actually suppose to go watch some harness racing Friday night. My old lady has a friend who owns a horse and he's gonna be racing Friday.

Mike, I actually started out betting trotters and pacers down in Yonkers ,NY..I was 17[not even legal to bet]..Bet them for many years before moving on to the flats..Love going to Saratoga in up state NY.. July & AUG. . Big money racing.Horses from all over, can't wait.. Was actually thinking of wearing my SPREAD SHIRT there. a lot of advertising there.. Time to shut down for the nite..Later.......

I've never been to a horse race in person so it should be a fun experience. I think I'll wear my TheSpread shirt as well!

Kentucky Derby Betting Preview
By: Monique Vág
Covers.com

With this year's Kentucky Derby draw complete there is no surprise Classic Empire is still favorite after drawing an ideal post. There are quite a few horses entered which hope to continue their dominant performances as well as some sentimental stories if you're looking to bet horses or connections from an emotional perspective.

Here’s a horse-by-horse betting breakdown for this Saturday’s Kentucky Derby odds:

1. Lookin At Lee (Jockey – Corey Lanerie, 20-1): Drew the dreaded rail post but I don't necessairly think this is the worst for a horse looking to close on the field. He's definitely talented and always seems to fire with his best effort. He's 6 for 9 in the money and completed the superfecta in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year. Picking up Lanerie, a specialist at Churchill Downs is also a huge bonus!

2. Thunder Snow (IRE) (Christophe Soumillion): The Godolphin Stables have been quite the powerhouse in horse racing, but haven't found much success in the Kentucky Derby. This may be one of the most talented they have sent over. He's a multiple graded stakes winner in Dubai and England where he's used to facing large fields and tough competition. He'll handle the distance with no problem, but how does he stack up against North America's best?

3. Fast and Accurate (Channing Hill, 50-1): He's entering the Derby off three straight wins but those haven't been over the turf and synthetic surfaces. I do find it problematic that his worst performance was against Maidens and his lone dirt start. He'll be the highest odds at post time for good reason.

4. Untrapped (Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1): I feel this horse would be much better sprinting as his pedigree seems to indicate. I do have legitimate concerns about how he will take to the distance of the Derby. I think he'll be racing from mid pack, will be fading late and I think he's the worst of trainer Steve Asmussen's three entries.

5. Always Dreaming (John Velazquez, 6-1): He's won three straight including coming off a career best Beyer 102 by proving the jump up in class into the graded stakes ranks wasn't a problem. It's always nice to enter the Derby on a win streak, and I think he's done enough to warrant that he belongs and is a serious contender. Pletcher's 1 for 45 training record is a haunting stat.

6. State of Honor (Jose Lezcano, 30-1): This colt is yet to win over the dirt surface, but he's put up some good efforts. I really like a horse who has shown consistency and he's done so against some of the Kentucky Derby favorites. I think he'll be closer to the first pack of horses in the Derby, so it's definitely possible he hangs around for a piece late.

7. Girvin (Mike Smith, 15-1): He topped the Derby leaderboard with 152 points earned through the prep races, but unfortunately connections noticed a quarter crack in his right front hoof. While he's gone on to put in a very nice training effort, I think it's safe to assume he won't be at 100% on Derby day and I'm not entirely sure how he will take to the new shoe change days before the biggest start of his life.

8. Hence (Florent Geroux, 15-1): It took this colt four races to finally break his Maiden, but two starts after that he closed from eleven lengths back to win the Sunland Park Derby at 10-1 odds. He's turned into the buzz horse after some solid workouts and off his last performance. Pedigree wise, he should get the 10 furlongs and I think his racing style suits the Derby well.

9. Irap (Mario Gutierrez, 20-1): He’s coming off a big upset performance in the G2 Blue Grass at Keeneland where he held off a late closing Practical Joke and beat one of the Derby favorites in McCraken. He's trained by Doug O'Neil who has had two Derby winners over the past six years. He may be a colt improving at the right time.

10. Gunnevera (Javier Castellano, 15-1): His $1.1 Million earned makes him second on the list of money earned by Derby starters this year. He's won four races in nine starts the best of which being the romp in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. His last start was a disappointing third by six lengths as post time favorite. I believe he's proven to be better than the 15-1 ML odds and offers great value to take a shot.

11. Battle of Midway (Flavien Prat, 30-1): It's somewhat problematic to me that this colt was part of the slowest Santa Anita Derby ran (by a full second). I think he's very reliant on a moderate to slow pace, which may not necessarily be the case with many entered hoping to be forwardly placed. I also find it negative that he was recently sold from Rick Porter to the partnership of WinStar Farm. Selling a Derby contender shortly before the Derby? Concerning...

12. Sonneteer (Kent Desormeaux, 50-1): This heavily raced colt is still winless after ten career starts, but has come close numerous times. Despite being the highest ML odds in the race he may be sitting as a big underlay on Derby day. If fractions are quick upfront, that would open the door up for closers and this colt has certainly shown a nice late kick. Although his pedigree doesn't scream stamina, he may be one of those colts that improves with the added distance.

13. J Boys Echo (Luis Saez, 20-1): Pedigree wise he's exceptionally bred to handle distance and the Derby will be no exception. His victory in the G3 Gotham at Aqueduct was one of the most visually impressive performances of the prep races. Unfortunately for him jockey Robby Albarado was injured recently and won't be ready to ride him, the replacement in Luis Saez is a step down from Albarado who was aboard for five of his six career starts.

14. Classic Empire (Julien Leparoux, 4-1): Classic Empire is a deserving Derby favorite due to his dominant two year old season, 108 Beyer in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at two, and his victory in the Arkansas Derby. This was a huge rebound after his third place finish in the Holy Bull. In that start he was racing with a foot abscess so the fact that his poor effort could be justified makes him even more dangerous of a horse on Derby day.

15. McCraken (Brian Hernandez Jr., 5-1): McCraken knows Churchill Downs well winning all three of his juvenile starts over the dirt surface. I anticipate him to be positioned in the middle group of horses and I think that often works great for closers when they don't have to worry much about weaving through traffic coming from too far back. His training efforts leading up to the Derby have been some of the best. Serious contender.

16. Tapwrit (Jose Ortiz, 20-1): This $1.2 million dollar purchase has an incredible pedigree and has certainly bounced back after a disappointing first career start. His consistency is an issue for me and I think he is a cut below the top runners. His best effort is enough to get him in the money and I think he's certainly capable of that.

17. Irish War Cry (Rajiv Maragh, 6-1): He's the son of two time horse of the year Curlin who finished 3rd in the Derby and was the winner of the Preakness and Breeders' Cup Classic. It's very important for a horse that prefers to be forwardly placed to break well out of the outside post and isn't forced to race too wide too early. He's definitely talented enough to get the job done today and capable of breaking the 82 year spell since a New Jersey bred has won the Kentucky Derby.

18. Gormley (Victor Espinoza, 15-1): His best races have come being positioned close to the lead and I think he's another very adamant on establishing early position upfront. His last race is hard to analyze due to how slow it was and the questionably weak competition in a Grade 1 race. I think he has a chance and is worthy of a closer look.

19. Practical Joke (Joel Rosario, 20-1): After wanting to put blinkers on for the first time in the Derby and training with blinkers over the past several days, Chad Brown and connections are choosing not to race him with blinkers. I don't at all like the fact that blinkers were even being considered in the first place. I look at any potential equipment changes right before the big race as highly problematic and concerning. He seems a bit slow and I haven't seen enough out of this colt as of late to give him any type of consideration.

20. Patch (Tyler Gaffalione, 30-1): I think he'll receive play mostly due to his sentimental story about being a Derby contender with only one eye. Post 20 is terrifying, he's only had three career starts, and I haven't seen him race against any of the top Derby selections to draw comparisons from. I like how he's not a "need the lead" type, and I think there's definitely some merit to being lightly raced and entering fresh.

Also Eligible: Royal Mo (20/1), Master Plan (50/1)

Picks: 1. Classic Empire 2. Lookin At Lee 3. Gunnevera 4. Irap 5. McCraken

Three Live Long-Shot Betting Picks
By: Monique Vág
Covers.com

With no clear standouts this year and early money being dispersed everywhere, I’ll be taking a shot on some higher-priced horses Saturday. Here are three Kentucky Derby long shots which could outrun their odds:

Gunnevera (16/1)

I still can’t get over what an impressive closing kick we saw out of this runner in the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. I think showing a strong closing kick with the often difficult 10-furlong distance of the Kentucky Derby is a necessity in picking a winner. It’s one of those intangible qualities that you often see hints of early in their career and it can make all the difference while gaining separation from horses late, or making up ground on tired front runners while closing in deep stretch.

Jockey Javier Castellano will have the mount on Derby Day and there’s no denying he’s a world-class talent still who’s still trying to chase the elusive Kentucky Derby win. Looking into how he got the mount on Gunnevera, an interview with his trainer Antonio Sano said Castellano was the one who called and asked for the job. Perhaps the Venezuelan connection played a part or perhaps he really had an inkling on how special Gunnevera could really be.

Breeding wise, Gunnevera was a much cheaper purchase than most, but that certainly shouldn’t be of concern. He’s the son of Dialed In (Mineshaft-Miss Doolittle by Storm Cat) the son of A.P. Indy, and out of dam Unbridled Rage (Unbridled – Suite by Graustark). Although Gunnevera may not have many notable graded stakes winning relatives, having these two aforementioned horses listed could help with the lineage of stamina and pedigree to handle the distance of the Kentucky Derby.

Lookin At Lee (25/1)

What I like about him is the consistency he’s shown closing on G1 competition throughout his career. I feel he’s one of those colts that will appreciate the added distance. He’ll certainly need a faster pace upfront to give him a legitimate closing shot but I do think this may be the year we see horses tire upfront leaving the door open for late runners.

With nine career races, he’s one of the most experienced in the field and I do think that’s an asset. He ran really well at two years old in the Breeders’ Cup Futurity, closing from as many as 14 lengths back but obviously couldn’t catch well-rated and ultra-talented Classic Empire.

You must respect the late addition of jockey Corey Lanerie, who has won an astounding 11 of the past 12 jockey titles at Churchill Downs. Despite their prolific careers, neither he nor trainer Steve Asmussen have yet to win the Kentucky Derby. Asmussen will have three shots to capture the title this year but I personally think his best shot is with Lookin At Lee, who’s a must include in your exotic wagers which just may hit the board at a big price.

Irap (20/1)

It’s very difficult finding one more long shot to complete this list. Girvin could have offered some nice value, but the quarter crack in his hoof is a huge red flag. At 100 percent, he has a legitimate shot. But I don’t necessarily believe that will be the case Saturday.

With that being said, I find myself attracted to this colt primarily due to his pedigree. Irap earned his Kentucky Derby spot by winning the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, lighting up the toteboard at 33/1 odds by holding off a late charge from Practical Joke. His odds were certainly a little inflated due to still being at Maiden.

Breeding wise, Irap is out of Tiznow-Silken Cat by Storm Cat. Tiznow still continues the Man o’ War line at stud. On the female side, he’s out of Silken Cat, making him a half brother to Speightstown. While his female side is much more speed based, there’s definitely a great balance of stamina on the male side.

He’s trained by Doug O’Neil, who has been as dominant as they come with three year olds possessing two Derby winners over the past six years. Irap is a horse showing a ton of upside who may be peaking at the perfect time.

Kentucky Derby Picks and Predictions
By Marco D’Angelo

#1 Lookin At Lee 20-1– If you like Classic Empire go back and watch the Arkansas Derby and only focus on Lookin at Lee also came from dead last in Breeders Futility to finish 2nd to Classic Empire

#2 Thunder Snow 20-1 – History says no to Thunder Snow as horses that have won the UAE derby in Dubai are 0 for 12 in the Derby with the best finish being 5th

#3 Fast and Accurate 50-1 – Totally outclassed here with his Beyer numbers and he will be on the lead or just off it. At least the owners will hear his name at the start of the race. NO SHOT

#4 Untrapped 30-1 – Has the preferred running style as he will be one of the stalkers but I question if he can get the distance as he as flattened out in the end of his last few starts. He does have a win over this track as a 2 yr old

#5 Always Dreaming 5-1 – Hot horse winning 3 in a row and getting better as he had a career best 97Beyer last time out. Has full of him self in the morning workouts wanting to run off with rider. In Florida Derby win went last furlong in 12.53 indicating he can get the extra distance. Perfect running style will have near lead but most likely sitting just off the lead.

#6 State of Honor 30-1 – Always a bridesmaid never a bride as in 10 starts has just 1 win but 4 seconds. Most likely will be the early speed in the race. With 10 starts under his belt this horse has pretty peaked already and is what he is. A good horse not a great horse.

#7 Girvin 15-1 – with only 4 lifetime starts this horse has a license to make a big jump on Saturday. In 4 starts he has 3 wins and a 2nd and has the preferred running style for the Derby but the horse has been dealing with quarter crack on his foot and will be running in Z Bar shoes to help take the pressure off the foot. If the foot was 100% I would like him a lot but the foot has altered his training and having had to deal with quarter cracks on my own horses you never know to you get them in the race. I’ll use him on some tickets.

#8 Hence 15-1 – Is the Hot backside horse this week or the Steam Horse as he is catching everyone’s eye in the mornings. Made a giant jump in his last race winning the Sunland Derby with a Career High Beyer of 97. His Beyer has improved in every start but the jump from 81 to 97 might of taken too much out of him and may be the reason he hasn’t raced since March 26th as he was ripe to bounce in his next start. So on one hand the extra time would eliminate the bounce factor but creates a new problem in the last 96 years there have only been 5 horses win the Derby that did not have a prep race in April. Don’t think he can win it but should be used in your exotics.

#9 Irap 20-1 – This trainer, jockey, owner combination has won the Derby twice in recent years with I’ll Have Another and Nyquist but both of those horses were better accomplished coming into Derby than Irap who didn’t break his maiden till last time out which was his 8th career start. I see better in the field.

#10 Gunnevera 15-1 – He will be closing late and prior to his 3rd place finish in the Florida Derby he had put together 3 bang up efforts seeing his Beyers jump from 86 to 95 to 97. He drew the outside post in the Florida Derby and got away dead last and Gulfstream Park has been known for a speed favoring bias so finishing 3rd coming from the clouds really doesn’t look that bad. With JJ Castellano up you have what many believe to be the best jockey in the world riding. Can’t be ignored at a price.

#11 Battle of Midway 30-1 – Battling history here as no horse since in 1882 won the Derby without racing at 2. I love the jockey here as Flavin Prat has taken the So Cal racing by storm but I don’t think this horse has the foundation to win this race look for better things from this horse later this summer.

#12 Sonneteer 50-1 – History says no here as he has yet to win a race and only 3 maidens have ever won the Derby with the last being 1933. Also with 10 career starts he is what he is. Look elsewhere.

#13 J Boys Echo 20-1 – This horse ran a huge race 2 back winning the Gotham and putting up a 102 Beyer figure. His previous best was 84 so the question is did he bounce last time out when he ran a 84 Beyer in a disappointing 4th place finish. If there is a fast pace up front and he avoids traffic problems he could be flying late. Consider on bottom end of exotics.

#14 Classic Empire 4-1 – Is the Champ back? Winner of the Breeders Futility at 2 he looked like he would enter this year as the odds on favorite for the Derby but he has been a nut job at times. Horses can be their own worst enemy and he was in the Hopeful when he wheeled at the start throwing his rider. Then in the Holy Bull ran his worst race finishing a badly beaten 3rd as the odds on favorite. His training schedule had to be altered as it was discovered that he had a foot abscess that was the reason for the poor performance in the Holy Bull. His training schedule was messed up a second time with a back injury and Classic Empire twice refusing to train. With all the obstacles he faced Mark Casse did a tremendous job getting him ready for the Arkansas Derby but the question I have is did rushing to get him here take too much out of him. I will use in Exotics but see others with better chance of winning.

#15 McCraken 5-1 – McCraken has won at Churchill 3 times in his career and has only tasted defeat once in 5 career starts. McCraken had improved is Beyer figure in every race up until his last race when he finished 3rd in the Bluegrass. Some will say he was beaten by a maiden in that race and look at it as a negative but if you look deeper I believe that race was just a tightner for this race. Coming off his win in the Davis in which he posted a Beyer of 95 he exited that race with a slight ankle sprain. His trainer Ian Wilkes had planned to go to the Tampa Bay Derby next but since he had to back off for a few weeks he decided to wait and race in the Arkansas Derby having almost 2 months in between starts. McCracken was no way 100% for the Bluegrass and rather than go all out with him it looked like they just wanted to get a race in him to tighten him up for this race. I think McCracken is sitting on a Big Race and post #15 is perfect as he is first horse in the auxiliary gate meaning he and #14 Classic Empire have a little extra room leaving the gate. His style is perfect as he will be one of those horses in the first tier of stalkers waiting to get the jump on the deep closers. Appears to be Horse to beat.

#16 Tapwrit 20-1 – With his post position and not really a speed horse out of the gate he is going to have to make up a lot of ground in the Derby. He had won 3 of his last 4 prior to his poor performance last time out in the Bluegrass. I can’t back him off the last race.

#17 Irish War Cry 6-1 – He is only horse in race that has 2 100+ Beyer races on his resume. He has tactical speed to get away from the gate so leaving from post #17 not as big of deal as it would be for others. He has been looking good in the mornings and with just 5 career starts 4 of them wins we still haven’t seen his best yet. He’s a major player on Saturday.

#18 Gormley 15-1 – The positives are this horse is a California based horse and California Horses have won 4 of the last 5 Derby’s. He also has Victor Espinoza aboard who knows his way to the winners Circle on the 1st Sat of May. Now the negative although he won the Santa Anita Derby is was in a very slow time. He has to overcome post #18 with better speed inside of him. This will also be his first race at a track other than Del Mar or Santa Anita. Too many question marks for me to consider as a contender.

#19 Practical Joke 20-1 – Hard not to like a horse that’s 6 for 6 in the money and has improving Beyer numbers including a career best 92 last time out. Joel Rosario is aboard and is one of the best jocks in the country in my opinion. The horse the preferred running style as he is a stalker. The big concern here is Post #19 as he may be further back in this race than he has been and will be at the mercy of the pace and traffic. But if he gets a quick pace which I think he will Rosario knows how to cut out a trip. Chad Brown is one of the Top trainers in the game and made an equipment change leading up to Derby and by all accounts has looked better with the addition of small cup blinkers. He has looked more aggressive in his morning works. Will have him on some of my exotics.

#20 Patch 30-1 - Has improved rapidly after stretching out from 6f to a mile and a mile 1/8th posting a win and a 2nd. With just 3 career starts he has the opportunity to make a big jump here as we clearly haven’t seen his best yet but the fact he didn’t race at 2 he is bucking history and getting post #20 doesn’t help either. Others present more value.