Kentucky Derby Breakdown
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com
1 - Lookin At Lee (20-1) Corey Lanerie (0-2) Steve Asmussen (0-15)
Notes: Is HE the “wiseguy” horse this year? Was on the outside looking in until last weekend and my phone blew up with texts and tweets. If all of those people bet on him he might be 10-1. He’s never won a race around two turns in six tries, which is hard to believe since he’s always gaining ground and weaving through fields in the stretch. The distance should help him but he comes from the moon. And it’s so hard for those horses to get the right trip in here unless things completely fall apart. I’ve been saying for three months that this is the year a horse like him picks up the pieces and pays $65 to win but after looking at the race I feel it’s going to be super tough for him to get his picture taken. I will use him in all of my exotics and maybe on a saver multi-race wager for my sanity’s sake.
2 - Thunder Snow (20-1) Christophe Soumillon (0-1) Saeed bin Suroor (0-7)
Notes: Like most of the “Derby Rules,” a horse will in all likelihood travel over from the desert one day to win America’s greatest horse racing prize. I doubt it’ll be one that arrives less than a week before the race, doesn’t train until the Tuesday before and was being considered for two other races in Europe before they finally made the decision to come here. He looked great going a mile, less so going 9.5 furlongs last out. Plus, this seemed like a weak bunch over there this season. Not for me.
3 - Fast and Accurate (50-1) Channing Hill (Debut) Mike Maker (0-9)
Notes: He’s won his last three since the addition of Lasix but they’ve came over the synthetic surface at Turfway and on turf. His win in the Spiral last out was completed with a final three furlongs in over 40 seconds. He was abysmal in his lone start on conventional dirt at Parx. I believe we’ve found the winner……for the worst case of Derby Fever this season. Toss.
4 - Untrapped (30-1) Ricardo Santana, Jr. (0-2) Steve Asmussen (0-15)
Notes: Eligible for an entry level allowance contest, he tried his hand at both the Fair Grounds and at Oaklawn this winter and though he got a piece of the pie on three occasions he’s yet to grab the brass ring in a big one. Maiden win was over the course. His sire was best at middle distances and he’s lost ground in the stretch in his last three starts. Toss for me.
5 - Always Dreaming (5-1) John Velazquez (1-18) Todd Pletcher (1-45)
Notes: You knew this guy was special when Johnny V. took a Wednesday off from riding at Gulfstream Park to go break his maiden at Tampa Bay Downs. That was back in January in his first start for Pletcher and around two turns. He’s perfect in all three tries for his new barn, including two at nine furlongs, something no other horse in the race can say they did. His Florida Derby was eye-catching….he sat just off the early and galloped home by five. But he was aided by a speed-biased course and his trainer owns Gulfstream. Since his arrival at Churchill he’s been very amped up in the morning, so much so that they had to change some equipment and the way they train him. You don’t want your hose to be dull but you don’t want a raving lunatic either. And it is tough to look past his trainer’s record in the race. I’ll use him underneath in my exotics.
6 - State of Honor (30-1) Jose Lezcano (0-4) Mark Casse (0-3)
Notes: He’s eligible for an entry level allowance contest. He’s lost ground in the stretch in his last four starts. He’s winless on conventional dirt. His pedigree screams “middle distance.” He figures to be a major part of the early pace despite the fact that he came from just off of it when he was second in the Florida Derby. I can’t see him playing any better in the outcome.
7 - Girvin (15-1) Mike Smith (1-22) Joe Sharp (Debut)
Notes: Of all the Derby contenders, his stock has dropped the most in the last month and he hasn’t even raced. Over the years, I’ve grown more and more suspicious of the Fair Grounds form and this might have been the most suspect bunch down in the bayou in recent memory, so I wasn’t a fan to begin with. Then his trainer piped up, avoided most reporters and it was unearthed that this colt was training with Z bar shoes. Sharp has said he’ll race in conventional shoes but his foot/feet is/are likely in shambles. Hernandez opted to stick with McCracken, which isn’t a great sign, even if you think there were some politics involved in the decision but you do get one of the best in the game on his back. I just don’t know how you can have any confidence that this horse is close to 100% and believe you me that’s what he’d need to be to have any chance in here under optimal conditions. Toss.
8 - Hence (15-1) Florent Geroux (0-1) Steve Asmussen (0-15)
Notes: The love affair some have with this guy boggles my mind. He’s run some average races in his career. I’m always skeptical when a horse breaks his maiden on a wet track, like he did. And he couldn’t have gotten a better setup then he did in his Sunland Derby win when they flew on the front end and he beat second-stingers, at best. That race came back significantly faster than any other he’s been a part of that it’s hard for me to believe it. He has the feel of a “wiseguy” horse and I think he’s going to take a lot of money. I want no part of him.
9 - Irap (20-1) Mario Gutierrez (2-2) Doug O’Neill (2-5)
Notes: It took him eight starts to break his maiden, then he did so in grand fashion taking the Blue Grass. He was aided by a speed favoring racetrack, a slow pace and likely by the fact that he was being chased after by a horse that likely has distance limitations. Oh, he was on his wrong lead, too. He does have strong connections in his corner as these guys have teamed up two of the last five runnings of the race. But I’ll Have Another was lightly raced and Nyquist was a juvenile champion. This horse was in the right place at the right time last out. I don’t believe that to be the case in here. Plus he’ll probably take some action. Not for me.
10 - Gunnevera (15-1) Javier Castellano (0-10) Antonio Sano (Debut)
Notes: Every year, we hear how so many in the Derby want no part of the added distance and how one or two are going to relish the ground. It certainly looks like this guy falls into the second category. He’s won at Gulfstream, Saratoga and on a “bullring” at Delta Downs, three places that historically favor front runners. While he is a bit pace dependent I feel the extra furlong negates that a bit. The obvious blip is that deep closers have so much trouble winning this race because of the bulky field and the traffic usually associated with it. He does have the winner of the last four Eclipse Awards for Outstanding Jockey on his back and he’s one of the few in here whose pedigree leads you to believe the 10 furlongs is ideal. I don’t see a lot NOT to like and he’ll be running through the lane while others will appear to be in quicksand. A win contender. I’m using him in most of my multi-race wagers and all my exotic plays.
11 - Battle of Midway (30-1) Flavien Prat (Debut) Jerry Hollendorfer (0-5)
Notes: Another lightly raced, Apollo Curse candidate, he was ultra-game in the Santa Anita Derby when second. He was part of a quick pace and was the only one the lived to tell the tale in deep stretch. My problem with him is that I feel like he’ll bounce off that effort, which to me was easily his best to date, and it’s so hard to win this on the lead. I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned into a player in the division later on this summer but I’m not a fan in here.
12 - Sonneteer (50-1) Kent Desormeaux (3-19) Keith Desormeaux (0-1)
Notes: He’s looking to become the first maiden over 80 years to win the roses in his eleventh start. Deep closer type tried the Arkansas route to Louisville. I wouldn’t bet him in a maiden race at this point, let alone in here. Toss.
13 - J Boys Echo (20-1) Luis Saez (0-4) Dale Romans (0-7)
Notes: He owns the highest Beyer Speed figure run by any remaining sophomore this season by way of his Gotham win. But when you look closely at his PPs you realize that race is the exception and not the rule. It sticks out like a sore thumb. Plus, he beat a horse in Cloud Computing who was making just the second start of his career. There was no apparent excuse in the Blue Grass flop. He’ll take some money because many feel Romans has a Derby with his name on it. That might very well be the case but I’m betting it doesn’t say “2017.”
14 - Classic Empire (4-1) Julien Leparoux (0-9) Mark Casse (0-3)
Notes: Perhaps no horse has overcome more this year to get to Louisville than the two-year-old champ. After a flop in his seasonal bow, he developed a foot abscess, a hind-end issue and his old behavioral problems crept up on him. Casse had to call a number of audibles along the way, all of which led to an Arkansas Derby win. Now, he has to repeat that performance in just three weeks. I hate the fact that all of his issues made him miss a prep – that’s one thing that really bugs me but there is no doubting his talent. My other issue is his mental make-up. Who knows what’s going to happen when $150K screaming fans proverbially smack him in the face when he comes out of the tunnel and heads to the gate. The only three-time G1 winner in the field may just have enough talent to win this but I feel it’s hard to take him as the favorite. An obvious win contender, I’ll use him in some multi-race wagers and all of my exotic plays.
15 - McCracken (5-1) Brian Hernandez, Jr. (0-1) Ian Wilkes (Debut)
Notes: He hit the wire at Tampa on February 11 a perfect four for four and the likely Derby favorite. A strained ankle and third place Blue Grass finish later and he’s almost like the forgotten horse. His name hasn’t come off as many lips as you’d expect of late, especially with his rider opting to stay aboard. He’s won all three of his starts over the surface, a huge plus, but they were all last season. He missed some time and a prep, a big no-no but you look at his pedigree and it’s hard to completely dismiss him. I don’t think he can win but I do think he can get himself into the exotics.
16 - Tapwrit (20-1) Jose Ortiz (0-2) Todd Pletcher (1-45)
Notes: He ran two dynamite races at Tampa to start the season then flopped in a big way in the Blue Grass. He didn’t break well that day, something that must be rectified if he’s to have any chance in here and was up against the dynamic of race and surface biases. Thunder Gulch threw in a clunker in the Blue Grass then upset the Derby for D. Wayne Lukas, Pletcher’s mentor, back in 1995. Maybe Todd can take a page out of the coach’s book. He’s by Tapit but the bottom half of his pedigree doesn’t lend itself to the distance, so you’re in a bit of a conundrum there as well. I can’t blame you for tossing him but I have a feeling he’s going to rebound enough that he can grab a minor award. I will use him underneath in my exotic plays.
17 - Irish War Cry (6-1) Rajiv Maragh (0-4) Graham Motion (1-4)
Notes: No one, including Motion, knows exactly what happened when he got beat a pole in the Fountain of Youth and if they do they aren’t saying. I’ll speculate that he caught a track not kind to speed, found himself on the chase for the first time and had a bad day overall. I do know that he came back to sit an almost identical trip to run his best race to date. The rest of his form, save the FOY, is flawless. He has tactical speed, he’s not losing ground in the lane and his figures come back fast. He’s posted two Beyer figures of 101 this year. Only one other horse in here, J Boys Echo, has even seen a triple digit fig. He’s by Curlin, so the distance shouldn’t be a problem and he’s bred to adore a wet surface should the track come up off. Should be sitting a few lengths off the early pace and have first crack at them. I think three horses have a chance to win this and he has the best one. The pick to win the 2017 Kentucky Derby!!!
18 - Gormley (15-1) Victor Espinoza (3-8 ) John Shirreffs (1-3)
Notes: The stranglehold California runners have had on this race, winning the last three runnings and four of the last five, seems to have been released this year. All of the preps out there were S-L-O-W, save Mastery’s San Felipe win. This guy won the Sham and then the Santa Anita Derby last out and did so after getting himself involved in a couple of stretch duels. If the West Coast were to keep the Derby I think this guy is the most likely to help it do so. But it is really hard to endorse him as a serious win contender when you look at his final time and speed figures. Shirreffs taught him to race from off the pace last out but I don’t think it’ll help him get anything more than a minor award. I’ll use him underneath.
19 - Practical Joke (20-1) Joel Rosario (1-7) Chad Brown (0-3)
Notes: Every single season there is a horse that gives me fits. Ladies and gentleman, version 2017. I know he is one of the more talented horses in this crop. To me, that’s certain. But it’s hard to ignore that he’s undefeated around one turn and winless around two. He couldn’t get by a maiden on the wrong lead in the Blue Grass. Let me repeat: A MAIDEN ON THE WRONG LEAD. It’s like they come off of the second turn and he goes one-paced. He grinds and grinds but never moves up. Granted, he hasn’t had the most pleasant of trips in his route races but at some point you have to stop making excuses. I’ve reached that point. I’m using him in my exotics simply because his talent may be enough to get him a slice.
20 - Patch (30-1) Tyler Gaffalione (Debut) Todd Pletcher (1-45)
Notes: Apollo Curse time, as this guy didn’t race until mid-January. He has only one eye, which has made for a curious story on the Trail this season. Maiden win came against a decent field and his second in the Louisiana Derby was ok. Only two horses have won the Derby with four starts or less in the last 99 years. I don’t think he’s fast enough to win but he may be worth a look in the exotics. And, when you take his pedigree into account, may be one to keep in mind for five weeks from now in the Belmont Stakes.
21 – Royal Mo (20-1) Gary Stevens (3-22) John Shirreffs (1-3)
Notes: The first also eligible, many feel he ran the best race in the S.A. Derby when he settled for third after attending the pace. Biggest claim to fame was winning one of the weakest renewals of the Robert Lewis in the history of the event. Pedigree doesn’t necessary lend itself to the distance and he’d be stuck with a terrible post. Pass.
22 – Master Plan (50-1) John Velazquez (1-18) Todd Pletcher (1-45)
Notes: Many were surprised when he was even entered since his connections didn’t mention it in the past several weeks. A hard-charging third in Dubai, he needs not one but two scratches to get into the field. I don’t think he’ll do much damage if he does. Toss.