Kentucky Derby News and Notes

Big Brown - Likely Kentucky Derby Favorite
by T.O. Whenham

This year's Kentucky Derby presents a favorite who could be truly special, but who is very difficult to understand. His name is Big Brown. If you haven't heard of him yet then you will soon, and you could hear about him a lot. His name isn't the most romantic, but it comes from where you might guess - the owner who named him owned a trucking company that worked with UPS. We'll get into why he's so hard to figure out, but he has a heck of a story, so let's take a look at it.

He was bought in April of last year for $190,000. Many two year olds hit the track in the spring, but he was held back until early September. His debut was on the turf in Saratoga and it was spectacular. He won by 11 3/4 lengths, and it was clear that he was the real deal. That performance set off a bidding frenzy, and the owner, Paul Pompa Jr., cashed in big. He sold 75 percent of the horse for $3 million. Soon after the new owners, I.E.A.H. Stables, spent the money they probably wished that they hadn't. First, Bog Brown got an abscess in his left front hoof. That kept him out of training for nearly two months. Just as he was getting ready to go again another abscess attacked his right foot. Those injuries kept him out of training until February, and when he returned he had to use special glue-on plastic shoes that reduced the impact of the track on his feet.

Those injuries were obviously a setback, but it didn't seem to bother Big Brown at all. He returned on March 5 on the dirt at Gulfstream and looked even better than before the setbacks. He settled off the pace and then just exploded on the last turn and rolled to a win by almost 13 lengths. Needless to say, people started paying attention to him again. His next race was his stakes debut, and that took place in the Florida Derby, the same race that Barbaro won en route to the Kentucky Derby. It was a major step up in class, but the horse didn't notice. He got stuck in the outside post position in the 12 horse field, but he moved up nicely, had the lead at the first call, and pulled away at the end to win by five. A legend was born.

That's the impressive part. Now the problems. That Florida Derby was his last race. Before Barbaro did the Florida-Kentucky double it was thought that the layoff from the end of March to the beginning of May was too long for a horse to be at his best. Barbaro proved that it's possible, but that doesn't mean that it's all of a sudden a good idea. That's a hurdle he has to overcome.

The next problem is that he has only run three times in his career. No horse has won with that little experience since Regret in 1915. In case you don't have a calendar nearby, that was a long time ago. Curlin tried to pull it off last year - he had also only run three times, and had also never lost - but he didn't quite have enough in the tank and ended up third. He went on to win the Preakness and the Breeders' Cup Classic en route to being Horse of the Year so it all turned out alright, but you could argue that the Derby was another needed prep race on the way to later success. Big Brown would have to be further ahead in his development than Curlin was to win in Kentucky.

The next problem is that he has only run twice as a three year old. All of Curlin's races had been when he was three. Only two horses have ever won the Derby off of just two three year old races. One was Sunny's Halo in 1983, and the other was Street Sense last year. Fans of this horse will say that last year's race proves that things have changed and horses can be prepared without needing as many races. That seems to be a commonly held belief - there will be at least seven horses in the race this year with just two preps, including the winners of most of the major preps - the Blue Grass and Wood Memorial, and the Florida, Illinois, and Santa Anita Derbies. Most of those horses, and Street Sense, had more than one stakes race under their belt, and had run more than once as a two year old.

As you can see, logic alone makes it hard to like this horse. If you have seen him race, though, you see just how impressive he is. It comes down to this, then - is this horse a freak? Lot's of horse people think so, and there is a belief that he has a heart that is larger than normal and therefore has more capacity. His breeding is very sound (though he has more sprinting tendencies than some would like), and he has shown incredible maturity for a horse that is so raw. Really, this horse is just like so many things in the Derby - you can't really figure it out for sure, so you just have to decide whether you want to believe or not and bet accordingly. I still haven't decided if I will be with him or against him on the first Saturday in May.

Docsports.com

Kentucky Derby Pace Scenario
by T.O. Whenham

If you were to try to generalize about the pace scenario in the Kentucky Derby you would say that the huge field and the excitement of the massive crowd will force horses to go out faster than they should, and that will lead to front-runners burning out and the race being set up for a horse to win from somewhere off the pace. There are exceptions, of course - War Emblem took the lead and ran away with it in 2002. For the most part, though, a couple of horses take the lead and kill each other trying to keep it, leaving the field to pick up the pieces. Here's a look at how the Derby pace could set up this year based on some of the horses that are being aimed at the race and have a high likelihood of getting in:

Quick out of the gate

Unlike the last few years, the likely favorite is going to be looking for the lead out of the gate. Big Brown only has three races under his belt, but each time he has found the lead early, set the pace, and then pulled away at the end in an awesome display. Unlike past years, though, he isn't likely to get the lead alone or unaccompanied because too many other horses will want a piece of him, too. One horse that will be right there with him is Recapturetheglory, the winner of the Illinois Derby. He'll capture the imagination of many because that's the same race that War Emblem won before the Derby, and both horses wired the field. People will be a bit more skeptical about this horse, though - he wasn't that highly regarded before the Illinois Derby, and there was a rail bias that he benefited from in that race. In many of his past races he found the lead but couldn't hold on down the stretch.

West coast invader Bob Black Jack will also be right at the front. He set a blazing pace in the Santa Anita Derby and stubbornly held on for second. There are a couple of concerns here, though - he has never run on dirt, and his only win this year came over six furlongs. The distance is a concern, but his ability and desire to stay near the front early isn't. Another California horse. Gayego, will be looking for a piece of the lead, too. He won the Arkansas Derby, and he did it on dirt, too, so he can probably handle the Churchill surface. In that race he hooked up with a longshot early on the lead, stayed up front the whole way, and held off a charge in the stretch. A couple of things are interesting about that race. First, Z Fortune put up serious charge down the stretch, and was actually in the lead for a few strides, but Gayego fought back and pulled away - a good sign after leading that far. He also won the same race that Curlin and Smarty Jones did before him, and he did it in a faster time than Curlin.

Todd Pletcher will have a runner taking a shot at the lead, but Cowboy Cal might not be as desperate for it as others. He set the pace in the Blue Grass and was only barely caught at the end. Unlike some of the others above, though, he can also be patient if needed. In the Tropical Park Derby he set back off a ridiculous pace from a longshot, let the leader burn himself out, and then took control and won impressively.

Just off the pace

There is going to be a crowd up front, and another crowd right behind them. The class of the group that is likely to settle off the pace is Colonel John. He was dominant in the Santa Anita Derby, powerfully moving past Bob Black Jack and pulling away. There is a chance he could be the favorite in the race, and he will have a big share of the support. Right with him will be Tale of Ekati, the winner of the Wood Memorial. He chased down a solid pace set by War Pass to catch him in the stretch. That race wasn't particularly fast, though, so it is unclear what it means going forward. That same day, Monba, another Todd Pletcher runner, won the Blue Grass. He dueled with Cowboy Cal down the stretch and won a close one. As with so many horses this year the switch to dirt for the Derby is a big question.

That's far from the end of the horses that will ideally be just off the pace. Adriano is Edgar Prado's Derby mount, and he is coming off a win in the Lane's End against a solid field. He had an eye-opening allowance at Gulfstream earlier this year, but he was a disastrous ninth in the Fountain of Youth, so there are questions about his ability on dirt and his real talent. Cool Coal Man won the Fountain of Youth, and he was third in the Blue Grass when so many other horses had a lousy day. He will be looking to find an opening late, but I remain unconvinced that he can take advantage of an opening if he can find one.

But wait, there are more. Smooth Air was second in the Florida Derby to Big Brown, but the winner was so clearly in a different class that you could argue that he won one race and Big Brown won his own. He made a powerful move heading into the top of the stretch, and was more than seven lengths ahead of the field at the finish line. He's training well in Florida and could be an interesting horse to watch. One of the fillies that could enter, Eight Belles, also has a habit of sitting off the pace before unleashing a huge move and taking control.

Deep closers

Pyro would probably have been the Derby favorite if it weren't for a truly lousy Blue Grass. He stumbled on the start, but settled into a fairly comfortable position for him - 10th. The problem was that he never fired, and he was still 10th when he crossed the line. In his best races he has settled somewhere off the pace and then overwhelmed his opposition when the time came. There is certainly enough pace in this race to set him up for success if he is in form and if the Blue Grass was just a blip and not and indicator of failing form.

Also at the back biding their time will be a couple of horses with enticing potential but some problems. Big Truck made a huge closing move to almost catch the winner in the Tampa Bay Derby, and he came from well off the pace to win the Tampa Bay Derby easily. Like Pyro, though, he had a disastrous Blue Grass. He never showed anything and limped home just behind Pyro in 11th. Visionaire looked like he was in trouble early in the Gotham, but he moved up nicely and steadily and took the lead right at the wire. He was also last early on in the Blue Grass. He only ended up fifth there, but he was gaining well at the end when so other, better horses were able to do that, so he deserves a look.

Docsports.com

Pletcher looking for breakthrough in Kentucky Derby
ASSOCIATED PRESS

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) -Last to show up, first to finish.

Trainer Barclay Tagg used the strategy five years ago and won the Kentucky Derby with a New York-bred gelding named Funny Cide.

Perhaps Todd Pletcher is thinking along the same lines. He will be the last of the Derby trainers to arrive at Churchill Downs, scheduled to touch down Wednesday before the post position draw.

And when an expected full field of 20 3-year-olds are entered, Pletcher will be sending out Monba and Cowboy Cal - the 1-2 finishers in the Blue Grass Stakes - to try to end his 0-for-19 Derby record.

Lexington Stakes winner Behindatthebar would have given him a third chance, but the colt is skipping the Derby and running next in the Preakness.

No matter when Pletcher and his colts settle in at barn 34 at Churchill Downs, the trainer will be peppered with questions about his Derby drought, now in its eighth year.

''We've shown up and had some horses run very well,'' Pletcher said recently. ''We've also probably brought horses that just simply weren't good enough. We've done a good job of preparing them. We just haven't been fortunate enough to win one yet.''

Twice his horses finished second - Invisible Ink in 2001 and Bluegrass Cat in 2006. There's a third with Impeachment in 2000 and fourths with More Than Ready in 2000 and Limehouse in 2004. But there's also last year, when the best his record-tying five horses could do was a sixth-place finish by Circular Quay.

Pletcher isn't dismayed. He truly believes he'll one day make that coveted trip to the winner's circle under the famed Twins Spires.

''I would love to win the Kentucky Derby,'' he said. ''But as I've said many, many times before, I don't base our stable success just on the Kentucky Derby.''

Pletcher, the nation's top trainer the past four years, broke through with his first win in a Triple Crown race in 2007. And it came with a sensational finish in the Belmont Stakes, when his filly Rags to Riches edged Preakness winner Curlin by a neck.

''It was our first Classic win and in some ways got that monkey off our back,'' Pletcher said. ''To do it with a filly in the dramatic fashion that it was done and to beat a horse of the quality of Curlin, it couldn't have been any more exciting. I thought it was a huge win.''

Nothing could be larger than winning the Derby, but Pletcher's operation is based on winning 365 days a year, not just on one day.

Winning the Belmont was great, he said, but ''the way our business works is ... that was on a Saturday, the next day you got to try to win something else.''

''We're not resting on those laurels,'' he said. ''We're hoping to add some more to it. And we're thankful for that opportunity.''

In Monba, Pletcher has a 3-year-old colt he thought was among his best earlier this season. But Monba was injured while struggling home 12th and last in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream in Hallandale Beach, Fla., on Feb. 24. Healthy again he won the Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 12 in a driving finish with Edgar Prado aboard, edging Cowboy Cal by a neck.

Prado is riding Lane's End Stakes winner Adriano in the Derby, so Ramon Dominguez gets the call on Monba. Cowboy Cal, whose three wins in six starts have been on the turf, will be ridden by John Velazquez.

Pletcher said both colts have been training well over Keeneland's Polytrack, and will be vanned the 70 miles from Lexington on Wednesday.

Monba and Cowboy Cal were late Derby qualifiers, needing to finish exactly where they did in the Blue Grass to earn enough money to make the field if more than 20 horses are entered.

If that didn't happen, Pletcher wasn't too concerned about missing a chance to end his streak.

''I thought life would go on whether something showed up or not,'' he said. ''Obviously, we're pleased with the developments the last couple of weeks and we're grateful we have a couple of opportunities here.''

With Behindatthebar out of Derby consideration, Denis of Cork moves into the field at No. 20 on the graded stakes earnings list.

Big Brown, the undefeated Florida Derby winner, arrived at Churchill Down late Monday, accompanied by trainer Rick Dutrow Jr.

Kentucky Derby - Part I
By Anthony Stabile

Part I

With Derby Week upon us, what better time than to take a look at how the twenty or so horses still pointing towards Saturday’s 134th running of the Kentucky Derby got here. Only twenty can run in the Derby, so this first installment will almost certainly contain horses that won’t be in the starting gate come Saturday.

I can’t think of a better place to start than the individual who have caused somewhat of a controversy on this years’ Derby Trail, the filly Eight Belles. While it appears that Eight Belles will run in the Derby as opposed to the previous days Kentucky Oaks, she’ll be entered in both and I guarantee that if she gets stuck with a bad post in the Derby, she’ll run in the Oaks.

Controversy aside, this daughter of 1996 Derby favorite Unbridled’s Song is undefeated in four starts this year after starting her career with just one win from five starts for trainer Larry Jones. After winning an allowance contest at the Fair Grounds, she shipped to Oaklawn and started a three race stakes winning streak at the Arkansas oval, taking the Martha Washington by 13 ½ lengths

Next up was her graded stakes debut in the G3 Honeybee where she came from off the pace to hand Pure Clan the first defeat of her career, winning by a measured 1 ¼ lengths. Last out, despite trailing early in a field of a four behind tepid early fractions, Eight Belles got her act together in the stretch en route to a ¾ length win in the G2 Fantasy. Gabriel Saez will ride her.

While many will argue that Eight Belles, or any other filly for that matter, belongs in the Derby, there are some that feel Salute the Sarge has even less of a right to be there despite having secured more than enough earnings to start.

Last year, Salute the Sarge won the G3 Hollywood Juvenile and G2 Best pal before finishing second in the G1 Del Mar Futurity and G1 Norfolk, all over synthetic surfaces in southern California. In his lone dirt try, he ended the season with an abysmal ninth place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. This year, he won the San Miguel at Santa Anita in his first start off a five month layoff before trudging home seventh in the G2 Lexington, two weeks prior to the Derby. While it’s doubtful he’ll run, his connections, including trainer Eric Guillot, still remain on the fence. Michael Baze would ride.

The owners of Lexington winner Behindatthebar should be commended for not automatically catching a case of Derby Fever after the victory. Another who has done his best work over synthetic surfaces (he’s won 3 of 4 starts), they’re leaving the decision up to his trainer, Todd Pletcher as to whether he’ll run in the Derby or not. Pletcher has said he’ll wait until Tuesday or maybe even Wednesday right before entry to make a decision.

In his lone try on dirt, Behindatthebar finished fifth in the G3 El Camino Real Derby at Bay Meadows and will be trying to buck one of the biggest Derby trends as he did not make a single start as a two-year-old. David Flores would ride.

Once considered a shoo-in for the Run for the Roses and a regular at the top of Derby lists across the country, Denis of Cork and trainer David Carroll may find themselves on the outside looking in come Saturday and will need some help to get into the Derby.

After breaking his maiden going seven furlongs at Churchill Downs last November, Denis of Cork won an allowance contest in the slop at the Fair Grounds before closing from well off the pace to win the G3 Southwest at Oaklawn in his stakes debut. His owners, who rely heavily on speed figures and “the sheets” when deciding when to run their horses, toyed with the idea of running twice more before the Derby but decided it was best to run just once more and settled on the G2 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne Park.

Despite finding a touch of trouble going down the backside, Denis of Cork never fired as the even money favorite and stumbled home fifth, thus costing him dearly in the graded stakes earnings department. If all goes according to plan however, he should find himself in the starting gate on Saturday and will have last years’ Derby winning rider Calvin Borel in the saddle.

Smooth Air is a great example of how heartbreaking this game could be. In seven career starts, he’s never finished worse than third and this year alone won the G2 Hutcheson and finished second in the G1 Florida Derby last out, giving him more than enough earning for the Derby while providing his 70 year old conditioner Bennie Stutts Jr. his first Derby runner. Unfortunately for his connections, Smooth Air spiked a fever early last week and is now questionable for his Derby run. Manoel Cruz is scheduled to ride.

Finally, Halo Najib would need for everything to fall apart for many in order for him to get into the Derby starting gate. In eight starts, he’s won just twice, with both wins coming over synthetic surfaces including a score in the OBS Championships against Florida breds at the Ocala Training Center. Two starts back he finished second in the G2 Lane’s End at Turfway for trainer Dale Romans before an off the board try in the G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland last out. No possible rider has been named.

VegasInsider.com

Kentucky Derby - Part II
By Anthony Stabile

Part I - Part II

In this installment of our Derby countdown, we’ll take a look at some of the more impressive Derby prep winners from this years trail along with a few runners who’ll be trying to make the transition from the synthetic, or Polytrack, surfaces to dirt. Let’s start with a colt that falls under both categories, Colonel John.

In six career starts, Colonel John has never finished worse than second. Last year, he won two of four including a win in the Real Quiet out at Hollywood Park and finished out the season with a hard charging runner-up finish in the G1 CashCall Futurity.

In his first start this year, Colonel John defeated and out gamed the previously unbeaten El Gato Malo in the G3 Sham at Santa Anita before uncorking a furious rally under in the stretch to win the G1 Santa Anita Derby when he appeared to be hopelessly beaten on the far turn for trainer Eoin Harty.

Bred to love the distance, the biggest question Colonel John needs to answer is whether he can handle dirt or not after racing and training exclusively over synthetic surfaces throughout his career. He’s trained well at Churchill since arriving late last week, including a sharp five furlong work in :57 2/5 on 4/26 that capped off his serious preparations for the Derby. Corey Nakatani will ride.

One would have to believe that Colonel John’s connections had to be thrilled with the results of the years G2 Arkansas Derby as fellow Californian Gayego, another who had only been over the SoCal Polytracks, sat just off the pace to capture the signature event of the Oaklawn Park meet.

Before the Arkansas Derby, Gayego’s calling card, if you could even call it that, was a win in the 6 ½ furlong San Pedro in his first start this year out at Santa Anita. Two starts back, Gayego was forwardly placed throughout in the G2 San Felipe and grabbed the lead in mid-stretch only to fall ¾ of a length short to the now-injured Georgie Boy.

Trained by Paulo Lobo, conditioner of 2002 Kentucky Oaks upset winner Farda Amiga, Gayego answered both the surface and distances questions that some pondered before his win last out and should be up close to what figures to be a quick pace in the Derby. On 4/26, Gayego worked five furlongs over a muddy Churchill Downs strip in 1:01. Mike Smith, pilot of 2005 winner Giacomo, has the call.

Like Colonel John, Bob Black Jack is another Californian who’ll need to make the synthetic-to-dirt- transition this Saturday in the Derby as he looks to turn the tables on his West Coast rivals.

After winning two of four starts as a two-year-old, Bob Black Jack wired the Sunshine Millions Dash at Santa Anita to start the year before setting the pace when tiring to be third in the San Felipe, a length behind Gayego. In the Santa Anita Derby, Bob Black Jack lost a heartbreaker to Colonel John as he appeared home free at the 1/8 pole before getting run down in the final yards to miss by just ½ length. Trainer James Kasparoff sent his charge out for his final major move before the Derby, a half mile in :48 3/5 on 4/28 at Churchill and will have the services of jockey David Flores on Saturday.

While he may not be a Californian, I’d bet Adriano and his connections wish the Derby was being run over Polytrack as opposed to the dirt considering his fondness for synthetic surfaces and the turf.

In seven career starts, Adriano has three wins and second place finish on his resume. On the lawn, he’s two for four with a second. On synthetic tracks, he won the G2 Lane’s End at Turfway Park last out and finished fourth last year in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in two starts. That leaves us with one start on dirt that is filled with more excuses than promise or ability.

Two starts back, Adriano made his lone dirt start the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. He drew the far outside post 12 which was like Death Valley at Gulfstream this season, found trouble on the first turn and became completely unglued in the paddock before the race according to his connections. While the first two excuses are understandable, the third is alarming as they’ll be at least five times as many people at the Derby than there were at Gulfstream and that could prove to be lethal for this colt.

By the great A.P. Indy, Adriano is bred to love the distances and will be ridden by Edgar Prado, who won the 2006 renewal aboard the ill-fated Barbaro. Prado actually chose Adriano over both G1 Blue Grass winner Monba and G1 Wood Memorial winner Tale of Ekati. Trainer Graham Motion sent him out in company with another runner for his final serious work on 4/27, a five furlong move in 1:00 2/5 at Churchill.

Speaking of Barbaro, his trainer Michael Matz will look to run his Derby record to a perfect two for two when he sends out Visionaire on Saturday. After breaking his maiden at Laurel in his second start last year and winning an entry level allowance contest at Gulfstream to start his three-year-old campaign, Visionaire finished third to Pyro in the G3 Risen Star at the Fair Grounds and was one of only a few runners to have a clean trip.

Then, in the G3 Gotham, Visionaire’ wet-track breeding was aided by a sloppy, soupy Aqueduct inner track and he got a dream set-up as the early pace was strong to get up in the final strides before finishing fifth while racing very wide in the stretch in the Blue Grass last out in his Polytrack debut.

On 4/28, Visionaire worked a half mile at Churchill in :48 2/5 and will be ridden by the up and coming Jose Lezcano. While he hasn’t beaten much and there is plenty to worry about, as there usually is with many Derby runners annually, as to whether he’ll get the distance or not, the fact that he’s making up ground at the end of most of his races is viewed as a positive sign by many.

Perhaps the most overlooked of this years’ major preps winners will be Recapturetheglory, who went from obscurity to graded stakes winner when he wired six others in the G2 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne Park in his last start.

After winning just once in four tries last season, trainer Louie Roussel, best known as the conditioner of 1988 Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner Risen Star, took over the colts training and ran him in an entry level allowance contest on the grass at the Fair Grounds where he finished third after dueling on the lead for most of the way. The Illinois Derby win was just the second start for Recapturetheglory under the tutelage of Roussel and the improvement was remarkable as he led throughout to win by an expanding four lengths.

The flip side to his Illinois Derby upset is twofold. Not only was he able to get away with dawdling opening fractions before sprinting home, but it came at the site of his only other win, perhaps hinting that he could be a horse for the course at the Chicago area oval.

Recapturetheglory finished second in an allowance contest at Churchill behind fellow Derby runner Cool Coal Man and is one of only seven probable entrants to have a race over the course. On 4/25, he went five panels in 1:00 4/5 at Churchill and will be ridden by Eddie Baird.

From the overlooked to the over hyped, the last colt we’ll talk about today is the probable Derby favorite Big Brown. After breaking his maiden by 11 ¼ lengths on the turf at Saratoga last season, ¾ of the colt was sold for over $3 million dollars and transferred from Pat Reynolds barn into the capable hands of Rick Dutrow Jr.

Out of sight for over six months, Big Brown crushed four others in an off the turf allowance contest at Gulfstream by over a dozen lengths. Brimming with confidence off that victory, Big Brown made his stakes debut in the G1 Florida Derby a little over three weeks later. The result surprised many, but not the colts’ trainer.

Rick Dutrow won two races on the Dubai World Cup undercard the day of the Florida Derby but he stayed at Gulfstream with Big Brown and he was rewarded with a wire to wire thrashing of eleven others, stopping the clock just two ticks of a second off the track record, propelling Big Brown to the role of Derby favorite.

Nestled away down in Florida since that win, Big Brown worked a sensational five eighths at Palm Meadows training facility in :58 3/5 on 4/24 and will work later this week over the Churchill Downs course. Kent Desormeaux will ride him in the Derby.

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Lookin' for a Triple Crown winner
By Anthony Stabile

Some say it’s the toughest accomplishment in sports yet those who speak of it can personally achieve it as it is left to the athlete of the four-legged variety. It is Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown.

Three different distances run at three different racetracks in just five weeks. They’ve been running the three legs of the Triple Crown- the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes - for well over 130 years now and only eleven horses have been able to grab the ultimate brass ring in the sport. Each year, over 35,000 Thoroughbreds are born, with each of their owners dreaming the impossible dream of winning the Triple Crown.

Even in this new era of Thoroughbred racing, with revenue from casinos and slot machines sending the purses for your everyday races soaring into the stratosphere and multi-million dollar nights of racing scattered across the globe in places such as Dubai and Hong Kong, not to mention the Breeders’ Cup held annually in North America, all the average Joe cares about when it comes to horse racing is the Triple Crown.

Since 1978 when Affirmed capped off a six year span in which both Secretariat and Seattle Slew captured the Triple Crown as well, ten horses, six in the last 11 years alone, have won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before strolling into the Big Apple with a chance to join the pantheon of equine immortals. All ten have failed.

In 1979, Spectacular Bid stepped on a safety pin that became lodged a half inch into his hoof the day before the Belmont while Pleasant Colony couldn’t handle the rigors of the trail and lost a ton of weight before the final jewel two years later. Both finished third.

Trainer Bob Baffert had back to back chances when Silver Charm didn’t see Touch Gold flying at him on the outside in 1997 before Real Quiet was the victim of a premature move by his jockey Kent Desormeaux and squandered a five length lead in the stretch the following year. And who can forget the images of the late, great jockey Chris Antley holding Charismatics’ injured leg up just yards after the finish of the 1999 Belmont that saw his Cinderella-like run come to an all too painful and hasty halt.

In 2002, War Emblem rose from relative obscurity to even money favorite on Belmont Day only to lose all chance at the start when he was bothered by several rivals leaving out of the gate. The very next season, Funny Cide went too fast early on and ultimately couldn’t handle the 1 ½ miles of the “Test of the Champion.”

Perhaps the greatest upset of them all occurred in 2004, when the undefeated Smarty Jones opened up a three-length lead turning for home. With 120,000 screaming fans serving as the backdrop, it appeared a glorious and raucous winners’ circle coronation was at hand. But Birdstone had other ideas and ran Smarty Jones down in the shadow of the wire, causing the record-setting crowd to boo him and jockey Edgar Prado afterwards.

What makes winning the Triple Crown so tough? If you ask 100 people, you’ll get 20 different answers but all of them will share a yearning to see it happen again, or for some, the first time. There are some that feel it’ll never happen again. Here are some of the more popular answers you’ll receive as to why it’s such a daunting task.

The answer you’ll get more often than not is that the breed has been weakened. When Secretariat was born in 1970, about half the number of horses that were foaled were foaled in 2008. The biggest reason was the fact that there were far fewer sires than there are today and they were much better qualified. Nowadays, almost every stakes winner becomes a sire and there are plenty of “backyard sires,” stallions that are bred for the sake of making money and not because of there accomplishments.

Another reason is the lack of sportsmanship and the enormous amount of greed that has encompassed the sport. With races like the $2 million Breeders Cup Juvenile and $1 million Delta Jackpot, there is so much money to be made as a two-year-old that plenty of owners and trainers are gearing their horses towards those races as opposed to the classics.

When they do get to the Triple Crown events it seems that the only people who care about the Preakness are the connections of the Derby winner. You’ll see many horses skip the second jewel to await the Belmont. The purses are the same and you get to rest your horse a bit more. This poses a big problem to any horse that won the first two legs because those awaiting the Belmont have had five weeks to recharge their batteries while the winner is coming in with two tough races under his belt. Both Funny Cide and Smarty Jones fell victim to this as Empire Maker and Birdstone ran in the Derby but not the Preakness and were laying in the weeds for the Belmont.

With that said, even the neighsayers this time of year contract a case of Derby Fever which in some instances, depending on how impressive the Derby winner is, can lead to the Triple Crown Flu. In recent years, horses like Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 and of course the ill-fated Barbaro in 2006 had horseplayers envisioning the second coming of Hindoo just minutes after the Derby, only to have their hopes crushed just two weeks later at the Preakness. Still, if you’re a fan of the Sport of Kings, it’s what you do so let’s take a look at a few colts that have a chance at making it and even dozen Triple Crown champs.

The talk of the town right now is Big Brown, an undefeated son of Boundary who burst onto the Derby scene with an eye-popping win in the Florida Derby on March 29th. After breaking his maiden on the turf at historic Saratoga last labor Day and winning his first start of the season some six months later at Gulfstream this past winter, Big Brown led from start to finish in the Florida Derby in near track record time, anointing him the favorite for this year’s Run for the Roses.

His lackluster effort over the Polytrack surface at Keeneland in the Blue Grass on April 12th aside, Pyro is another who merits consideration for this year’s Triple Crown events. Pyro has hit the board in all six of his starts on conventional dirt, including wins in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby, both held at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans this year.

While he’s raced solely over synthetic surfaces thus far, Colonel John could be an imposing sort should he be able to duplicate his efforts on the dirt. Perhaps the best Californian to try the Triple Crown since Point Given, Colonel John has the preferred middle of the pack running style for the Derby and is bred to run all day.

Tomcito could provide some international flair considering the fact that the first five starts of his career came down in Peru and he’s already won at the 1 ¼ miles distance of the Derby and the 1 ½ miles distance of the Belmont. He finished third in the Florida Derby behind Big Brown in his U.S. debut.

Whether there will be a Triple Crown winner or not this year remains to be seen but if history has taught us anything about the series it’s one thing – you’re about to experience an exciting five weeks. So get tied on and enjoy the ride!!!

VegasInsider.com

Sizing up the Kentucky Derby Field - The Key Contenders

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Most of the buzz this spring has been about Big Brown and his unbelievable performance in the Florida Derby. Add to that the recent comments made by his trainer, Rick Dutrow, and the 134th renewal of the "Run for the Roses" could be a very special two minutes.

If you happened to miss it, here's what Dutrow said. "Until somebody shows me the beast, this is not a tough horse race. I know there's no one going into this race as good as is right now. If he breaks clean, it's a mismatch to me on paper."