Derby Preview - Part III
By Anthony Stabile
The field for Kentucky Derby 135 is finally set, but it doesn’t include the twenty horses we thought would be running on Saturday. In fact, three horses – Quality Road, Square Eddie and Win Willy – were declared from the race in the days and hours leading up to Wednesday’s draw.
It looked as if we’d have a Nick Zito-less Derby until Wednesday morning when he announced that Nowhere to Hide would run after the defection of Win Willy. After breaking his maiden in his fifth try at Calder in the last start of his juvenile season, Nowhere to Hide has run fourth in three graded stakes this year, the G3 Risen Star, G3 Tampa Bay Derby and G2 Illinois Derby. Shaun Bridgmohan has the call.
Atomic Rain was able to get in on Tuesday, giving trainer Kelly Breen a double shot at making Derby history as Atomic Rain and stablemate West Side Bernie will be his first two starters in the event. Still eligible for an entry level allowance contest, Atomic Rain hasn’t won since breaking his maiden at Monmouth Park last June. He was fourth in the G1 Wood Memorial under Joe Bravo, who’s back aboard for the Derby, in his last start.
Join in the Dance did just that on Tuesday, giving Todd Pletcher three starters for this years Run for the Roses after it appeared as if just six weeks ago that Pletcher, like Zito, wouldn’t be in Louisville for the big one this Saturday. A winner just once in eight starts, Join in the Dance set the pace and tired to be second by a neck in the T.B. Derby two back before tiring to fifth in the G1 Blue Grass last out. Chris DeCarlo will ride.
The second of Pletcher’s runners, Advice, is another who was on the fence until Thursday though his win in the G2 Lexington last out garnered him more than enough of those precious graded stakes earnings. In his lone start on dirt, Advice was fifth in the Sunland Derby two back with blinkers which were removed in the Lexington, where he came from dead last on the far turn to win going away. Rene Douglas picks up the mount.
The last of Pletcher’s trio arguably offers him his best chance at winning the roses this year and is perhaps his best chance yet at winning the Derby. His name is Dunkirk and in just three starts, he’s encountered more than most horses will in twenty.
In his late January unveiling at Gulfstream, Dunkirk broke from post 3 and found himself bottled up behind a wall of horses after breaking slowly. On the far turn, jockey Edgar Prado jerked Dunkirk to the outside before turning him loose in the stretch to win by a widening 5 ¾ lengths.
An entry level allowance race, his first start around two turns was next on the agenda and turned out to be more eventful than his debut. Breaking much better than he did in his first start, Dunkirk found himself seven wide on the first turn and five wide on the backside. Approaching the turn, Dunkirk joined the leaders and battled between horses on the far turn before unleashing a similar stretch run to that of his debut to win by an expanding 4 ¾ length score. After the race, Pletcher announced that Dunkirk would run next in the G1 Florida Derby.
In what would be his stakes debut, Dunkirk was up against it before he even stepped on the course as the Gulfstream strip was ultra-quick that day and speed favoring. As eventual winner Quality Road enjoyed a perfect stalking trip, Dunkirk had to once again make up ground, making up a number of lengths to draw even with the winner on the turn before getting turned away nearing the wire. Though he didn’t win, it was another of example of this colt overcoming adversity, something you don’t see often in a horse as lightly raced as he is. Prado will be back aboard Dunkirk in the Derby after having been replaced by Garret Gomez in his last pair.
Besides Breen and Pletcher, Saeed bin Suroor is the only other trainer that will run multiple horses in the Derby. The powerful Godolphin Stables’ private trainer will saddle both Desert Party and Regal Ransom in the Derby.
After starting their careers in the U.S., both colts were shipped to Dubai over the winter along with their more heralded, and more costly stablemates Midshipman and Vineyard Haven and were pretty much considered second stringers until injury knocked the latter pair off the Derby trail.
Though Regal Ransom was no more than a maiden winner, he managed to finish second to Desert Party, who won the G2 Sanford at Saratoga in just the second start of his career, in their first two starts this year at Nad al Sheba in a pair of minor stakes. Last out in the G2 UAE Derby, Regal Ransom took advantage of a speed biased strip that may very well have been catered to his liking to turn the tables on Desert Party, narrowly defeating him by a ½ length. Alan Garcia will be back aboard Regal Ransom while Ramon Dominguez will ride Desert Party for the first time.
Hold Me Back owns the distinction of being the only runner in this years Derby that will be saddled and ridden by Hall of Famers as trainer Bill Mott will give jockey Kent Desormeaux a leg up aboard the colt in the paddock at Churchill on Saturday. While he’s won three of four starts over synthetic surfaces, including the G2 Lane’s End two back before finishing second in the Blue Grass last out, his lone dirt start is somewhat of an eyesore as he finished a bad fifth in the G2 Remsen behind Old Fashioned in his final start as a two-year-old.
Speaking of Old Fashioned, though he’s retired, his stablemate Friesan Fire still offers trainer Larry Jones and jockey Gabriel Saez a chance at redemption after they received a ton of unwarranted attention after the unfortunate breakdown of Eight Belles who was second in the race last year.
Though he started his career with just one win in four starts, Friesan Fire turned the corner when Jones added blinkers, finishing second in his last start as a juvenile before rattling off three consecutive graded stakes scores at the Fair Grounds earlier this year, including the G2 Louisiana Derby. This Derby will be his first start in seven weeks.
Finally, what would a Kentucky Derby be with a longshot from Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas’ barn? Flying Private, who is 1-for-10 in his career, will play the role this year. Second in the Lane’s End two back, Flying Private was fifth in the G2 Arkansas Derby last out and will be ridden by Robby Albarado.
VegasInsider.com
Kentucky Derby Trends
by T.O. Whenham
With most things in life, the more you do them the easier they get. That only makes sense. The same can't be said, though, for handicapping the Kentucky Derby. Just when we seem to get a handle on things, everything changes. Kentucky Derby trends that were once rock solid now look fragile and meaningless, while horses that only recently would have been given no shot to win because of their experience are now legitimate contenders. So much of what we thought we knew about handicapping the Kentucky Derby has either been proven wrong, or has been hopelessly complicated. Here are a few examples of what I am talking about:
Layoffs - It used to be so simple - you couldn't win the Derby if you hadn't run a race in the month before the Derby. Needles managed to win off a long rest in 1956, but for the next 50 years no horse managed to, and not that many bothered to try. But then Barbaro changed everything. He waited five weeks between the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby, then he proceeded to annihilate the field in Louisville. Two years later, Big Brown proved that Barbaro's win was no fluke by managing the Florida-Kentucky double again.
This year, Dunkirk is trying the same five-week strategy, and he is far from alone. Regal Ransom and Desert Party both have five weeks and a long trip from Dubai between them and the Derby. The horse really looking to shatter this trend once and for all, though, is Friesian Fire. On March 14 he absolutely crushed the field in the Louisiana Derby. He hasn't run since. That seven-week layoff is virtually unprecedented, and to a lot of observers it makes no sense at all. If trainer Larry Jones can win with this strategy, though, then the Derby prep season could go through yet another change of complexion.
Experience - This is another rock-solid rule that is being threatened. It used to be that you could confidently rule out a horse that had run fewer than six times in his career before the Derby. Only three had managed to win with fewer wins since 1933, and all of them had run five times. Big Brown rocked the foundations of that assertion last year, though - his Derby win came in only his fourth career start. This year, two more runners - Dunkirk and Summer Bird - come into the Derby with a similar three-race base of experience. Another, Hold Me Back, has run just five times.
Not all things have been threatened recently on the experience front, though - you can still feel fairly confident in disregarding a horse with fewer than three starts as a three year old. Only seven horses since 1937 have managed that feat. Last year, six horses tried it, including the winners of most of the major prep races, but none could overcome the lack of recent experience. That trend looks reasonably secure this year. Only two likely starters - Hold Me Back and Mine That Bird - have run just twice this season, and neither is among the elite Kentucky Derby contenders.
Dirt - Synthetic surfaces give me a massive headache. It's not just that they create a different style of racing that isn't generally as entertaining to watch, that they are maddeningly inconsistent despite claims that they shouldn't be, or that the science behind their adoption is questionable. The big thing here is that it's so darned hard to figure out how a horse is going to handle a move from the synthetics to the dirt. Handicapping the surface used to be so simple - a horse would have almost no reason to run on turf before the Derby, so everyone ran on dirt and it didn't matter. Now, though, things aren't so simple. Some horses come into the Derby without ever having run on dirt, and others have limited experience. Dirt behaves very differently than synthetics, and it can be a challenge for horses not used to it - especially in big fields, and especially if the horse is not a front-runner.
As of yet, a horse that has prepped on synthetic surfaces has yet to win the Derby or even to do particularly well. The sample size is small, though, so we can't be sure whether that is a meaningful trend or just a coincidence at this point.
This year's field raises complicated synthetic questions. Likely favorite I Want Revenge changed from a decent horse into a superstar when he moved from synthetics to dirt this spring. He clearly likes the real surface, so it shouldn't be an issue. I can't help but think about Gayego last year, though. He was good in California, moved to dirt for the Arkansas Derby and was great, but then finished just 17th in the Derby. Even more challenging for handicappers are top runners Pioneerof The Nile and Chocolate Candy - two California imports that have never been on dirt. Mr. Hot Stuff is another California runner that is a dirt virgin. He's a full brother to Colonel John, an entrant in the Derby last year. That horse ultimately excelled on dirt, wining the Travers Stakes at Saratoga last August. He didn't take to the surface nearly as well in Kentucky, though, finishing a disappointing sixth.
Docsports.com
2009 Kentucky Derby Jockeys
by T.O. Whenham
As we get ready every year to try to pick a Kentucky Derby winner, the smallest of men are often the biggest of stories. With a race as big and crowded as the Derby, the jockeys play a very important role. A good rider can steer a horse out of trouble and get the most out of its talent. A bad ride can spell disaster. More than other races, handicappers need to seriously spend their time handicapping the jockeys and their ability to excel under the pressure of the race. The 2009 version of the Kentucky Derby has the potential based on the talent heading for the starting gate to be among the best in a long time. Here's a look at some of the jockey questions and issues that are going to be tough to figure out between now and post time:
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Joe Talamo - Talamo has the mount on I Want Revenge, the likely post time favorite. The jock has shown a great deal of commitment to this horse, traveling to New York for his last two races despite being based in California. Talamo has a lot of talent and almost endless potential, and it seems like a very good bet that he will win a Derby at some point in his career. There's a problem, though - he's only 19 years old. Making a Derby debut is tough at the best of times, but especially so when a rider is so young. The added pressure of being on the favorite will only increase the intensity of the experience, and the potential for things to go wrong. Talamo generally rides well, but he has the ability to make a bone-headed move from time to time. His mount is ridiculously impressive, and Talamo has ridden him well in his last two big wins, but I'd certainly feel more confident if a more established rider had gotten the nod.
Garrett Gomez - You could argue that someone other than Gomez is the best active rider in the sport right now, but you would be wrong. Gomez wins when it matters, and he can get the most out of his mount when others wouldn't. He's also a good indicator of just how tough winning the Derby is - despite his dominance, he doesn't have a win in the big race. He has a good shot at it this year aboard Bob Baffert's Pioneerof The Nile. Gomez also forces us to play amateur psychologist - he had the mount both on his Derby mount and on the highly-regarded Dunkirk throughout the prep season, and he could have ridden either one in the Derby. The fact that he chose Pioneerof The Nile seems to be a big endorsement of that horse over Dunkirk, but now we have to decide whether that is actually the case, and what that means for the comparative chances of both horses.
Late upgrades - John Velazquez, one of the better riders in the country, was due to ride Quality Road, the Florida Derby winner and potential Derby favorite. That horse dropped out the week before the race with a quarter crack injury, so Velazquez was left without a mount. Mr. Hot Stuff, the brother of Colonel John, an entrant last year, was fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, and didn't have a Derby rider. Normally, a horse like that wouldn't get a top rider. It worked out that Velazquez will be on the horse this year, and that gives Mr. Hot Stuff a better chance of winning than he would otherwise have had. Another horse from the Santa Anita Derby got a similarly impressive upgrade of riders leading up to the big race. Chocolate Candy's saddle had been a revolving door - Russell Baze and Joel Rosario had each ridden him for one race in his last two. Both have given way to Mike Smith. Smith is a Hall of Famer, a Derby winner, and one of the best big-money riders in the world. There is a good chance that we will see more out of Chocolate Candy in the Derby than we have seen up to this point.
Introductions necessary in the paddock - In most cases the Derby rider has previously ridden the horse in a race. When they haven't they have virtually always worked the horse in the morning a couple of times to get comfortable with them and build he trust that is important to a big performance. That's what makes Julien Leparoux such an odd case. He'll be on General Quarters - a legitimate contender that has proven capable of uncorking a big race. Leparoux will have never touched the horse before he gets boosted on minutes before the race starts. Other guys - Calvin Borel, Ramon Dominguez, Robby Albarado, Mike Smith - will also be making their debuts on new mounts in the race, but you can be sure that they will all be better acquainted with their charges than Leparoux. Leparoux says he often rides horses with this much prior exposure, but never in a race this big.
Docsports.com
2009 Kentucky Derby Predictions
by T.O. Whenham
Who is going to win the Kentucky Derby? That's a million dollar question at this time of year. Some years I have a pretty good answer to that question, and occasionally it's even the right answer. The last three years have been particularly simple - I was emotionally and financially attached to Barbaro, Curlin and Big Brown by March. The depth and talent of the field this year, though, has made it much harder for me to come up with a clear answer. Making Kentucky Derby predictions this year, then, has come down more than usual for me to looking for value in the morning line odds and acting accordingly.
I also make my predictions this year with a bit of trepidation. This is the second time that I will be attending the Derby in person. The first time was in 1996 when Grindstone won. Through straight bets and exotics I had 14 different horses in the field covered. Grindstone was not one of them. That hurt, and I live in constant fear of seeing that happen again this time around. With that in mind, here's how I break down my Kentucky Derby predictions:
The favorite is currently I Want Revenge, and that likely won't change. He has had two very impressive races in New York, and I really want to believe that he is a star. At the price he is likely to go off at - in the neighborhood of 3/1 - I just can't back him, though. He wasn't nearly as impressive in California as he was in New York, and the New York class wasn't exactly dominant this year. The horse will also be ridden by Joe Talamo, a 19-year-old jockey making his Derby debut. Talamo is talented, but I have troubling believing he will be at his best on this stage. I Want Revenge could be special, but at this price he is very easy to discard in my mind. He'll factor into exotics, but he's not a winner in my book.
Friesan Fire is another horse I am willing to toss out. He's ridiculously talented, and was very impressive last time out. He hasn't run in seven weeks, though, and I refuse to believe that a horse can get ready for this kind of race off of that much rest. It hasn't happened before, and I am not willing to bet at 5/1 odds that it will happen now.
In between I Want Revenge and Friesan Fire on the morning line lay two horses I quite like - Dunkirk and Pioneerof The Nile at 4/1. Dunkirk's lack of experience is an issue - he has just three career starts, and he didn't win last time out. He has the most eye-popping talent in this field, and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him win, but at this price I have to reluctantly pass.
Pioneerof The Nile has issues as well - mostly that he has never run on dirt. That's a big problem in my eyes - no horse that has run exclusively on synthetics has yet looked particularly good in the Derby. There are a few reasons I am not as concerned about this as I would normally be, though. Bob Baffert is a Derby training savant, and he has the definite air of confidence around him this year. Garrett Gomez is the best jockey in the country right now, and he not only will be riding the horse but he chose him over Dunkirk. The horse has also shown a lot of class in his last two wins. Both races have featured strange and awkward pace scenarios, yet the horse has fought through them to come out on top. That determination and unflappable nature should serve him well on Saturday. Of the elite contenders, Pioneerof The Nile is the one I most trust and support.
Now for a few longer prices. First and foremost, I can't believe that Musket Man is at 20/1. He's has looked very good in his races this year - all wins. He's clearly improved each time out. He's trained well coming into the race, and he is looking physically imposing and impressive. I was expecting to see him at about 14/1, and even that would have seemed more than fair. If he stays near or above his 20/1 morning line price then he'll have to factor in all over the betting spectrum. Another 20/1 horse that presents real value at that price is Papa Clem. He's the Arkansas Derby winner - a distinction shared by some impressive horses in the last decade. He's beaten I Want Revenge, and he's as seasoned against top competition as any horse in the field. If he stays at or near his price he'd be a steal.
So, there it is. If I were to pick one winner it would be Pioneerof The Nile. He'll be joined in the exacta by Musket Man, Papa Clem, and perhaps Dunkirk. For the deeper exotics I would also throw in I Want Revenge, Hold Me Back, and Chocolate Candy.
Docsports.com
Kentucky Derby Preview
By:Jeff Hochman
With the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby this Saturday lets take a look at my top five contenders in random order. These are my ML odds. The official odds and PP's will be determined on Wed.
I have picked the winner in three straight Kentucky Derby's and 9 of 13 in Triple Crown Races. Most Horse experts thought Big Brown would flop as the favorite in the 20th PP. Not me! He ended up winning in a romp. One of these 5 horses will win. Make sure you sign up on Saturday for the big winner.
The betting favorite has won the Kentucky Derby just 4 times since 1979 but three since 2000. Most recently was Big Brown (2008), Smarty Jones (2004), before that it was Fusaichi Pegasus (2000), and than you have to go back all the way to Spectacular Bid in 1979. The favorite has Never won the Kentucky Derby two years in a row.
What is the Dosage and why it's important: Dosage is a mathematical analysis of the strengths in a thoroughbred pedigree based upon the location of certain outstanding sires in its family.
You may have heard that any horse whose DI is greater than 4.00 cannot win the Kentucky Derby. This figure was selected not by man, but by history because up until 1991, no horse with a higher DI had ever won the race. (Strike the Gold won with a DI of 9.0 only because Alydar was yet to be named to the Chef-de-Race list in the Classic category. After that designation, the DI for Strike the Gold fell to the more realistic figure of 2.6 which more accurately reflected his abilities and those of most offspring of Alydar.)
Real Quiet won in 1998 with a DI over the 4.0 limit, and subsequent Chef-de-Race additions have actually raised his DI even further. Such is the nature of statistics - it won't be accurate 100% of the time.
The 4.0 barrier is still a good historical yardstick for a classic distance race, but is bound to be broken again someday - only because horses don't race against distances, they race against other horses. Also, when looking at the best Beyer figure I like to see a Horse with at least one 100 or more on his resume.
I still find it very hard to back and Horse in the Kentucky Derby that has a dosage of 4.00 or higher. It has worked well for me in the past.
I Want Revenge ML: 7/2 Dosage: 3.00
I Want Revenge is unbeaten since switching from a synthetic to a dirt track. Since being beaten at Santa Anita Park in February by Pioneerof the Nile and Papa Clem, I Want Revenge and regular rider Joe Talamo have combined for two straight victories at Aqueduct, romping in the Gotham Stakes in March and taking down the Wood Memorial in April despite a rough start. He has not been training well this week at CD and is no lock.
Pioneerof the Nile ML: 6/1 Dosage: 3.00
Pioneerof the Nile has never raced on dirt, but that hasn't stopped him from looking superb in workouts at Churchill Downs this week. Undefeated this year, Pioneerof the Nile has made huge strides in his ability to focus from gate to wire - a quality that was lacking early on this season. The only question remaining is whether his form will translate from synthetic to dirt. Time will tell.
Friesan Fire ML: 9/1 Dosage: 3.00
Undeafted this year, Friesan Fire hasn't raced since his triumph on March 14 in the slop at Fair Grounds in the Louisiana Derby but if the rain keeps falling at Churchill Downs, that experience on an off-track will be advantageous come Derby day. What may be a disadvantage is that Friesan Fire has not raced outside of Fair Grounds since December 2008 and could find the transition to Churchill Downs difficult. A well-rested horse but might come up rusty.
Chocolate Candy ML: 12/1 Dosage: 2.08
Who doesn't like Chocolate Candy! Very tasty. Last year he won the Real Quiet Stakes and was 3rd in the Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park. Won the California Derby at Golden Gate for his 3-year-old debut and followed up with a win in the El Camino Real Derby. Went in the Santa Anita Derby for his final prep and finished a slow closing 2nd to Pioneerof the Nile by a length.
West Side Bernie ML: 14/1 Dosage: 1.80
Has the lowest dosage in the field. Even lower than last year's winner, Big Brown. Last year he won the Kentucky Cup Juvenile at Turfway, was 6th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita, then 2nd in the Delta Jackpot at Delta Downs. Rallied from last to finish 3rd in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park for his 3-year-old debut. Finished a disappointing 6th Lane's End Stakes at Turfway beaten 8 lengths by Hold Me Back. Came back to finish 2nd in the Wood Memorial 1 1/2 lengths behind I Want Revenge for his final prep.
Horse-by-horse preview and picks
By Patrick Patten
Advice (20-1) – This horse was not on anyone’s radar prior to the Lexington, a race in which he was nearly 16-1. Add in a sprinter pedigree and I have some advice for those thinking about this horse in the top spot: Think again.
Atomic Rain (50-1) – Just got in under the earnings wire. The horse is trained by Jersey favorite Kelly Breen. Other than that I’ll take my Mother’s advice, “if you only have something bad to say, don’t say it.” This will definitely be harder to do as the list goes on.
Chocolate Candy (20-1) – A big striding colt who was under the radar out west has been improving in every race, but will he have improved enough? His first trip over the Churchill strip didn’t prove so hot. He ran a mile but on a tiring track he got very tired. With the depth this year, I don’t think it’s wise to take a horse that hasn’t had a perfect prep to the big race.
Desert Party (15-1) – The best horse Godolphin has ever brought over to America, but once again they’ve trained this horse in their races on their soil in hopes of traveling 7,000 miles to run 1.25 miles and walk away with our trophy. It hasn’t happened yet and it’s still very unlikely. He was supposed to win his last race, the UAE Derby, but the speedster Regal Ransom ran them all off their feet. The tactics of the Derby might suit him better, but I’m not sure his preparations will. The No.1 jockey for Godolphin, Frankie Detorri, isn’t making the trip. Will you?
Dunkirk (4-1) - The Derby will be the fourth race of his career. Big Brown won the Derby in his fourth start last year and while both horses are amazing, I think this year’s pool is deeper and doing something unconventional won’t prove wise. This might also turn into the wise-guy horse that gets a lot of buzz only to fizzle come race day. Garret Gomez, the nation’s No. 1 jockey, decided to stay with Pioneerof the Nile instead of riding this colt. I don’t expect him to finish last by any means, just think this Derby is his.
Flying Private (40-1) – Derby D Wayne Lukas is a Hall of Fame trainer, but this horse is still eligible for non-winners of one. Meaning, the horse only has a maiden win to his credit, and that was last year.
Friesan Fire (5-1) – All of this horse’s connections have been knocking on the Derby door: Larry Jones, the trainer along with Fox Hill Farms, the owner, have finished second with Eight Belles (2008) and Hard Spun (2007), the sire, AP Indy, is arguably the best stallion standing today, but does not have a Derby winner. Friesan Fire is my pick for the win. He is perfect this year with his preps down in Louisiana and while the five-week break in between races is huge, I have faith in Jones who knows how to prep a winner.
General Quarters (20-1) – Winner of the Blue Grass and Sam F Davis this colt will be the story of the Derby as he is his trainer’s only charge and only chance at racing immortality and he’s not a long shot by any means. He has wins on both synthetic and dirt surfaces, has won near the lead and from behind, and is a useful horse. He also picks up a great jockey in Julien Leparoux. At the right price this horse is worth a look.
Hold Me Back (15-1) – Finished second to General Quarters in the Blue Grass having won the first leg of derby preps in Kentucky, the Lane’s End. This horse has improved greatly this year, but he’s probably a cut below the top horses in this Derby. He’ll be coming from way back Derby day so if you like closers this might be the horse for you, but he won’t be mine.
I Want Revenge (5-2) – A logical favorite come post time this horse was good on the synthetic out west, but was great on the real dirt out east. He cruised to an effortless win in the Gotham and was the best on Wood Memorial day. The horse has shown an ability to rate, come from behind, and win on the lead. There isn’t much more you could ask for. My only concern would be his jockey Joe Talamo, who is a great up and coming young jockey and 2007 Eclipse winning apprentice jockey. There are horses just as good who might have an edge when comparing pilots.
Mine That Bird (50-1) – Could be the longest shot on the board. If you like that kind of bet, be my guest. This horse hasn’t broken 81 on the Beyers and all his wins were on the Woodbine Polytrack.
Mr. Hot Stuff (30-1) – A full brother to last year’s West Coast hope Colonel John, Mr Hot Stuff took a little while to show his stuff, breaking his maiden on try No. 5. He is a closer who had the pace set up for him a couple times, but who has gotten to the finish line first only 1 time. Not a terrible horse to put in the 3rd or 4th hole at a price, but not one you want to put your mortgage on.
Musket Man (20-1) – The winningest horse you’ve never heard of. He’s 5 of 6 lifetime with wins in the Tampa Bay Derby and Illinois Derby, but I doubt he makes a lot of top five lists. Those two derbies just aren’t the glamorous ones, but he is a horse to keep an eye on Derby week. Any buzz surrounding him should be taken seriously as he has faced some good sized fields and has encountered some trouble (wide trips).
Nowhere To Hide (50-1) – The NFL just had it’s draft and Mr. Irrelevant was Ryan Succop. Nowhere To Hide got into the Derby around 8am Wednesday morning - they draw entries at noon. They should probably just send this horse to Disney Land now. OK, try and say something nice…. Next!
Papa Clem (20-1) – Has finished second to two horses I really like: Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire. It’s hard to imagine him turning the tables on both of them in a big spot.
Pioneerof the Nile (4-1) – Everyone will complain that this is a turf/synthetic horse. Bill Mott on the East Coast is a smart trainer who told the owners pretty much just that. But horses grow up and change and if Bob Baffert says he’s good to go, he’s good to go. His first work over the Churchill strip really turned some heads and it’s hard to go against a horse who got the top jockey, Gomez, and who is riding a four-race win streak.
Regal Ransom (30-1) – The “other” Godolphin horse, who led gate to wire in the UAE Derby, needs the lead. The Derby is probably the hardest race to get it. I don’t think he’s the next coming of War Emblem, so let’s move on.
Summer Bird (50-1) – There’s in over your head and there’s drowning - this horse might split the difference.
West Side Bernie (30-1) – If you’re looking for a closer this might be the horse for you. He was terrible in the Lane’s End but that was on polytrack and prior to that I’m not sure the surface or the race ever suited him. I think you saw the real Bernie in the Wood, and he was four wide and driving at the finish line. Trained by Jersey fave Kelly Breen, I think he’d add value to any ticket.
Race day advice: I don’t think you can bet this Derby wrong. What I mean by that is that whatever horse you put up top (sans the biggest bombs like Flying Private) will have a good story angle and you shouldn’t feel embarrassed by any bet. I’m no chalk player by any means, but this race does look chalky to me.
I’ll be using Pioneerof the Nile, Friesan Fire, and I Want Revenge on top of those plus West Side Bernie, Square Eddie, Musket Man and General Quarters.
Kentucky Derby post draw: Big Four faves have no excuses
By HorseRaceInsider.com.
No more waiting; the field finally is set for Kentucky Derby 135. Despite the fact that there have been many defections for one reason or another, it's doubtful that field size would be less than the 20-horse limit, race day scratches notwithstanding.
At Wednesday's post draw, Wood Memorial winner and early line favorite I Want Revenge drew a perfect post in slip number 13. None of the Big Four, including Dunkirk, Friesan Fire and Pioneer of The Nile, were compromised with their position having drawn posts 15, 6 and 16, respectively.
No. 1 – West Side Bernie (30-1): A good wide-trip third in the Holy Bull, a dull return to the synthetics, then a strong-rally placing behind I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial. He, too, has proven "faster" on conventional dirt, but has required time to rebound from top efforts and his Wood was a career top. Connections must be concerned, scheduling a final short work to keep whatever energy may be left in the tank. A nice colt that appears heading the wrong way and the rail draw certainly didn't help.
No. 2 - Musket Man (20-1): There might be better colts in Derby 135 but not many that are better managed: A less than perfect trip third in the Sam F. Davis is the only blemish in a six-race career. After rebounding to win the Tampa Derby, he shipped to Hawthorne and became a man with a comprehensive Illinois Derby score. But that career-best effort sets him up for a regression. Churchill training indicates that might be the case.
No. 3 - Mr. Hot Stuff (30-1): Altered course, weaving his way through traffic when third in the Santa Anita Derby, galloping out strongly past the wire. Has two nine-furlong routes under his belt, is bred for the distance and had crisp work Monday at his Santa Anita base. With Corey Nakatani opting for Square Eddie, a last-minute defection, colt picks up hot-riding Johnny Velazquez, indicating that it might be better to be lucky than good. Live exotics price play.
No. 4 - Advice (30-1): His work on Monday convinced his connections to make a run for the roses. The Chapel Royal colt has had a career mixed with immaturity and bad luck but put it together in a big way to win the Lexington, coming from last of 11 after early trouble. Has earned his way into the field but doesn't appear fast enough and is another deep closer in what might be a moderately paced event.
No. 5 - Hold Me Back (15-1): Impossible to knock in two starts this year.
Colt overcame a quirky Turfway Polytrack to win the Lane's End coming from last then was an excellent second after General Quarters got the drop on him in the Blue Grass. Nagging flaw was a horrible outing in last year's Remsen, his only dirt start. Sunday workout showed ability to handle the surface while maintaining his freshness and strength. Exotics player.
No. 6 - Friesan Fire (5-1): The negatives are a seven-week layoff and no races beyond a mile and a sixteenth. Trainer Larry Jones had Hard Spun ready off a six-week respite and has a good history in this race, the Eight Belles tragedy notwithstanding. The other issue is that his best performance figure came on a sloppy track he obviously loved. Jones took a page from his own playbook, working his fresh colt five furlongs in :57 4/5. In the fray throughout, he's a difficult read at relatively short odds.
No. 7 - Papa Clem (20-1): Another "new horse" with the shift from synthetics to dirt. After catching Louisiana Derby slop, he shipped to Hot Springs and won the Arkansas Derby with a career best effort. But that performance could take its toll if a recent disappointing workout is any measure. The Kentucky Derby leaves little margin for error. Possibly worth a flyer, but needing twice the early-line odds.
No. 8 - Mine That Bird (50-1): A bargain basement yearling, he's been from one barn to the next but accomplished enough to be voted 2008 Canadian juvenile champion. Had a workmanlike five-furlong work with a good gallop-out, but when given an opportunity beneath Richard Mandella's shedrow proved that he wasn't really a prime-time player. After SoCal sojourn, was winless in two starts at Sunland Park. Way over his head here.
No. 9 - Join In The Dance (50-1): Apparent one-dimensional speedster is nonetheless pretty game. The trick is knowing how well he'll class up. Held extremely well making two-turn debut in his first start over Tampa's demanding surface, missing by a neck to win-machine Musket Man. Showing speed in the Blue Grass but tiring on Polytrack is mulligan material. Even with different owners, his best utility, as far as trainer Pletcher is concerned, would be to insure an honest pace for Advice and Dunkirk.
No. 10 - Regal Ransom (30-1): The speedy member of the Godolphin duo arguably possesses stoutest pedigree among Derby 135's 20 starters. Has a juvenile foundation, is tactical - as opposed to run-off speed - and has a partner (Alan Garcia) with a deserved reputation for effectiveness with his type. With Join In The Dance to his immediate inside, a stalking posture appears more likely than a front running gambit.
11-CHOCOLATE CANDY (20-1): Loves the game, as his winning record attests, and his trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer, should already be in the Hall of Fame. Of course, this colt has never seen dirt. The good news is that if handicappers must guess how his form will translate from the synthetics, winning bettors would be well compensated compared to, say, high profile conqueror Pioneer of The Nile. Suffered through very difficult trip when second in Santa Anita Derby, and probably was a short horse, too. Expect him to be at tops, indicating a superfecta finish is possible, and at generous odds.
12-GENERAL QUARTERS (20-1): Gray Cinderella colt is versatile, showing a liking for Tampa Bay, Churchill, and even Keeneland’s Polytrack, winning on the early pace or stalking just off it. The negative is that he’s a bit in-and-out, and this looks like an out spot. Hasn’t been breaking stopwatches since returning to his Churchill base and loses Eibar Coa to Musket Man. Not yet an elite three year old, his running style places him in a vice between the speed and the ralliers.
13-I WANT REVENGE (3-1): Turns out he’s a wonderful dirt horse. Classy, brave and athletic, no Derby-135 entrant has a better rapport with his rider than this colt has with the young, talented, cocky wise-beyond-years Joe Talamo. Between Animal Planet, his cucumber-cool Wood Memorial, and avoiding an Alysheba-like calamity to win a So Cal event last week, the racing gods just might be conspiring here. Churchill gallops indicate there might be more where that Gotham and Wood came from. Deserving favorite.
14-ATOMIC RAIN (50-1): Never lived up to the early season promise he demonstrated at Gulfstream Park. He’s never been a serious threat anytime he faced accomplished three-year-old competition, and got into the race due to all the last-minute defections. Had a Monmouth Park blowout before boarding a van for the 13-hour ride to Louisville, where he and partner Joe Bravo at best figure to get hot and dirty.
15-DUNKIRK (4-1): Apollo, 1882, and that’s a whole lot of history. Historical trends have been falling by the wayside recently but there’s a good reason why this one has lasted. But this colt cannot be eliminated on those grounds. True, he’s done a lot of developing in a short time. But his performance figures have increased with distance and experience. Todd Pletcher said that the long, lean individual is typical of the better Unbridled’s Songs, and has put on weight since the Florida Derby. Five weeks should be enough to refill the tank. Major player
16-PIONEEROF THE NILE (4-1): Undefeated for newly elected Hall of Famer Bob Baffert but, as everyone knows, 0-for-0 on dirt. The Pro Ride horses have been running well on dirt all spring and observers have been impressed with how comfortable this colt is on the Churchill surface. But how he handles it Saturday is a complete guess. His high cruising speed suits the anticipated race shape and he wants to compete and to beat you. My guess is that he’ll transition to dirt. Now he needs to prove it. Value at 6-1 plus.
17-SUMMER BIRD (50-1): An interesting newcomer with less seasoning than Dunkirk, also making career start number four. This guy debuted even later, following his Mar. 1 sprint debut loss with a good win going long, then was a slow-start, wide-rally, strong-finish third in the Arkansas Derby. Even a money finish would be too much to expect but the race could provide an excellent educational foundation. Belmont, maybe?
18-NOWHERE TO HIDE (50-1): If a Kentucky Derby was held without Nick Zito, would the sky fall? Might never get an answer to that question. This is a nice colt who at present is not ready for something like this. But apparently the owners of My Meadowbrook Farm have dreamt about running in the Derby and will get their wish Saturday afternoon. Shaun Bridgmohan gets the last-minute assignment.
19-DESERT PARTY (15-1): The perceived stronger half of the Dubai pair was compromised by a moderate pace and a quality loose stablemate which kept him from sweeping the Dubai triple crown. A graded stakes win as a Saratoga juvenile speaks to his class and foundation and both Dubai runners appear to be thriving at the Downs. Owns enough pedigree and positional speed for the trip and is partnered with future Hall of Famer Ramon Dominguez. Wide draw hurts.
20-FLYING PRIVATE (50-1): Since stretching back out as a three-year-old, Fusaichi Pegasus colt has come to hand for four-time Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas. Following a good second in the Lane’s End, he suffered through a difficult Arkansas Derby trip. Finished well in his final Derby work at Churchill with a good gallop-out beneath new rider Robby Albarado. The post is a killer and he’s in deep water with these.