Kentucky Derby News and Notes

2010 Kentucky Derby: Contenders & Pretenders
By Carlo Campanella

LOOKIN AT LUCKY is easy to like as he owns the most earnings in Graded Stakes events and is trained by the popular Bob Baffert. Before you jump on board, you should know that this son of Smart Strike had finished first or second in each of his first seven races before running a troubled third in his last start, the Santa Anita Derby. While 7-for-7 on the board is very impressive, most of those races were run last year and it should be said that the strongest and fastest 2-year-olds usually get past up as everyone else in the crop grows up during their 3-year-old campaign. He’ll be the second betting choice.

SIDNEY’S CANDY entered the Kentucky Derby picture very late, as he started quietly amassed 4 victories in his first 6 races, including 3-in-a-row while winning the San Vincente (G2), the San Felipe (G2) and the Santa Anita Derby (G1). This son of Candy Ride (Arg) will be your early speed in the Derby and will try to take them wire-to-wire. Jockey Joe Talamo says this horse “takes a deep breath and can run all day,” so his biggest question might be if he can handle the Churchill Downs dirt, since all of his races have been on the Polytrack. He’s your probable 3rd choice as they enter the gate.

MISSION IMPAZIBLE This son of classy sire Unbridled’s Song is considered to be trainer Todd Pletcher’s “other horse,” as he also saddled post time favorite Eskendereya. He’s one of the lighter raced contenders, only being seen on the track on 5 occasions, however, he’s made the most of them while hitting the board in 4 of his 5 career races. He put it all together in the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his last start, winning his first try at 1 1/8 miles around two turns. Gives Pletcher two bullets in his Derby gun, but at a better price.

AWESOME ACT missed some training going into the Wood Memorial (G1) and then blew a shoe at the start. Jockey Julian Leparoux had a handful turning for home and thought he was an easy winner until Eskendereya pulled away down the stretch to beat him by 9 ¾ lengths. This son of Awesome Again has talent, which he proved when winning his previous race, the Gotham (G3), following a 4-month layoff. He’ll be making his 3rd start off the layoff on Derby day, a “form cycle” that indicates this might be his strongest race back since he was rested.

ICE BOX has earned a spot in the Derby starting gate after winning 3 of his last 4 races, including the Florida Derby (G1) at 1 1/8 miles. The biggest knock against this maturing son of Pulpit would be that he was handily beaten by favored Eskendereya by 12 lengths in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park. If you’re expecting the early pace to be sharp, or his competitors to crumble going 1 ¼, he’s your “come from the clouds” late closer.

CONVEYENCE earned a lot of the early Derby buzz last fall when he started his career by winning 4 straight races, including the San Rafael (G3) and Southwest Stakes (G3). The son of Indian Charlie has never won better than a Grade 3 race and his loss in his last start in the Sunland Derby (G3) to little known Endorsement dropped his stock. He’s trainer Bob Baffert’s “other horse,” but you’ll get a big price on him in the Derby, which isn’t bad for a horse who’s won a very respectable 4-for-5 of his career races!

Why they can win the Kentucky Derby … and why they cannot

Lookin At Lucky

Why: No one comes close to the 2-year-old champion's accomplishments: three Grade I victories, with his fastest performance also in his only dirt start (the Rebel).

Why not: Call him Lookin At Unlucky. He's encountered traffic problems in three of his last four races (including his only two losses), and trouble is a tough path to Kentucky Derby victory.

Noble's Promise

Why: If he hadn't kept running into Lookin At Lucky, his record might be as impressive as anyone else in the field. His Arkansas Derby fifth was better than it looks, and he came out with a lung infection.

Why not: A son of the miler Cuvee out of a mare by the top sprinter Clever Trick winning at 1¼ miles? The last horse to win the Derby after being fifth in its last prep was Iron Liege in 1957.

Sidney's Candy

Why: He is a top horse, setting a Del Mar record at 5½ furlongs and winning the nine-furlong Santa Anita Derby by 4½ lengths. The racing gods will make it up to 20-year-old jockey Joe Talamo for scratching Derby favorite I Want Revenge on race morning last year.

Why not: No horse has won the Derby in his first dirt start.

Line of David

Why: His Arkansas Derby victory was his first start on dirt and his best performance. Hot trainers winning with their lesser-regarded horse (John Sadler also trains Sidney's Candy) is a good betting angle.

Why not: His wins have all been wire-to-wire, and there's too much speed in this race. His final three-eighths time in the Arkansas Derby suggests he might not want to go another furlong.

Mission Impazible

Why: He is getting good at the right time, as his Louisiana Derby triumph shows. You know that when Todd Pletcher finally wins the Derby, it won't be with the horse everyone expects.

Why not: The Louisiana Derby was his best race to date, and it was a slowly run race.

Ice Box

Why: All the speed will set up his late kick. His Churchill works have been very strong.

Why not: The last horse to win the Derby off a six-week layoff was Needles in 1956.

Stately Victor

Why: His last eighth-mile (11.96) and three-eighths (35.67) in the Blue Grass were the fastest of any horse who will get in the field.

Why not: He's not a dirt horse, and he's owned by Tom and Jack Conway — it's been tough going for Democrats in national races in Kentucky.

Conveyance

Why: He fits the prototype of Derby winners, including good form at 2 and 3. He's a serious horse who has lost only once.

Why not: That loss was in his only start farther than a mile. He is a confirmed front runner and will have lots of company on the lead.

American Lion

Why: He's a dirt horse who won the Illinois Derby when he finally got away from synthetic surfaces.

Why not: He got away with very soft fractions in winning the Illinois Derby on the lead. (Doesn't the Illinois Derby winner always go wire to wire?)

Dublin

Why: He's a Grade I winner trained by a guy (D. Wayne Lukas) who has won the Derby four times, and his rallying third in the Arkansas Derby was very good. He'll benefit from all the speed.

Why not : He might take an early exit off one of the racetrack gaps on the backside.

Super Saver

Why: He's rounding into form off two narrow stakes losses this year, and Churchill is his favorite track. He's bred for the distance. Best yet, he's ridden by Calvin Borel.

Why not: He'll be part of what could be a wicked pace. The last Kentucky Jockey Club winner to wear the roses was Cannonade in 1974. Borel specializes in coming from last in the Derby.

Devil May Care

Why: She showed her true ability in winning the 1 1/8-mile Bonnie Miss in faster time than the Florida Derby.

Why not: She either wins a race or gets beat double-digit lengths. Also, she very well could be in the Oaks.

Discreetly Mine

Why: He's bred for the distance, is consistent and classy and has a lot of seasoning.

Why not: He's also a half-brother to top miler Discreet Cat and doesn't want to go that far.

Dean's Kitten

Why: He's training lights-out at Trackside, his last two races have been the best of his career and he'll love the distance.

Why not: He'd love it a whole lot better on turf. He lost by 33 lengths in his lone dirt start.

Awesome Act

Why: British import ran well last year on grass but really is a dirt horse. His Gotham victory off a four-month layoff with compromised training was huge, and he had an excuse (stumbled at the start) when third in the Wood. All the speed is perfect for his running style.

Why not: His last eighth-mile in the Wood (13.49) was slow. No British or European-based trainer has ever won our Derby.

Paddy O'Prado

Why: He was good enough to break his maiden in a Grade III stakes on turf and finished well when second in the Blue Grass.

Why not: He might be better suited for the Irish Derby.

Homeboykris

Why: He won the Grade I Champagne, historically a proving ground for Derby winners. Trainer Rick Dutrow says he runs well fresh.

Why not: His 63 days since his last race (and that a second place in a mile allowance race) would be one of the longest such gaps for a Derby winner. The Champagne hasn't produced a Derby winner since 1993.

Jackson Bend

Why: He has never been worse than second and has a good stalking style. Jockey Mike Smith knows about winning the Derby on a long shot (50-1 Giacomo).

Why not: He might not get in the race.

www.courier-journal.com

Expect Ice Box, Lookin At Lucky there at the end
By Andrew Beyer

When Eskendereya was sidelined by an injury, Lookin At Lucky justifiably inherited the role as the favorite in the 136th Kentucky Derby.

But he's a different kind of favorite.

Eskendereya had demolished his rivals in two major prep races; his speed figures indicated he was at least five lengths superior to any of his rivals in this otherwise sub-par field. Lookin At Lucky is an accomplished colt, too. He has won six of eight career starts, and he had valid excuses for both of the losses. He was the 2-year-old champion last season, running exclusively on synthetic surfaces in California. This spring he showed that he is equally effective on dirt when he overcame traffic trouble to win the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

In that race, however, Lookin At Lucky didn't rout his rivals in the manner of Eskendereya. He won the Rebel in a photo finish, earning a moderate Beyer Speed Figure of 98. Taking into account the trouble he encountered, he might have run a couple of points higher. But on the basis of that performance, he has no edge over his opponents in the Derby. Nine other members of the field have recently earned in the 97-to-100 range. Neither Lookin At Lucky nor anybody else in Saturday's 20-horse field possesses a significant advantage in talent.

Unless some horse improves sharply and unexpectedly, as Mine That Bird did last year, the Derby isn't going to be decided because one horse is better than the other 19. The outcome will be determined by the dynamics of the race: who saves ground, who goes wide, who encounters traffic, who has a clean trip -- and, especially, who is helped and hurt by the early pace.

In the Kentucky Derby, more than any other race, pace is often a crucial determinant. When the pace is moderate -- if, say, the first half-mile is run in 47 seconds or thereabouts -- the early leaders often seize a tactical advantage. But every time the first half-mile of the Derby has been run in 45.4 seconds or faster, the pace has taken a destructive toll on all of the early pacesetters. After a 45.38 half-mile in 2005, the leaders collapsed, and the horses running 18-6-11-19 at the four-furlong mark wound up finishing 1-2-3-4, with Giacomo winning at 50 to 1. In 2001, when the pace was 44.86, the three early leaders wound up finishing 13th, 14th and 16th in the field of 17 as Monarchos and other stretch-runners dominated the race.

The composition of the 2010 field appears made to order for a similar pace meltdown. At least three of the entrants -- Conveyance, American Lion and Sidney's Candy -- have the raw speed of stakes-quality sprinters. Of the others, Line of David, Discreetly Mine and Super Saver regularly race on or near the lead in route races. One of the speedsters, Sidney's Candy, is expected to be second choice in the wagering, but he has scored his major victories after getting an uncontested lead on California's synthetic tracks, and a fast-paced dirt race will be a new and difficult experience for him. Even if the speed collapses, there are relatively few credible stretch-running threats in the Derby field. Many of the other contenders -- such as Dublin, Noble's Promise and Jackson Bend -- have rarely passed another horse in the stretch run of a route race.

And some of the come-from-behind runners may not fire their best shots. Stately Victor rallied strongly to win the Blue Grass Stakes over Keeneland's Polytrack, but he beat a weak field and he has never won a race on dirt. The filly Devil May Care bypassed the Kentucky Oaks to run in the Derby, with trainer Todd Pletcher saying she is ideally suited to the 1 1/4 -mile distance. The filly's main claim to fame is a stakes win at Gulfstream Park with an easy trip in a field of six -- a far cry from what she will encounter Saturday. Moreover, she hasn't raced in six weeks and has had only two starts as a 3-year-old, so she may not have the seasoning for this tough test.

There are only two colts I am confident will be accelerating strongly in the Churchill Downs stretch: Lookin At Lucky and Ice Box.

Lookin At Lucky is obvious: He fires every time. He rallied strongly to win the Rebel Stakes; he came from 10th place to lose in a photo finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall. While his speed figures may be unimposing, his consistency and his finishing ability set him apart from most of the others in the field.

Ice Box finished out of the money in the first three races of his career, and didn't win a stakes race until his seventh and most recent start, the Florida Derby. He had a perfect setup that day, sitting in last place while the leaders set a fast pace, then rallying furiously to win by a nose. It would reasonable to view his 20-to-1 upset as a perfect-trip fluke. But 3-year-olds sometimes do improve suddenly in the spring. Trainer Nick Zito says that Ice Box reminds him of another late bloomer, Strike the Gold, who came to life in his final prep race and gave Zito his first Derby win in 1991.

In a field in which it is hard to muster an ironclad conviction, Ice Box offers the best betting value. Based on the assumption that all the speed horses in the Derby will collapse, my play will be an exacta box of Ice Box and Lookin At Lucky.

T’storms may create a Derby only a mudder could love
By ED FOUNTAINE
NY POST

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — If the weathermen are right, the sun won’t shine bright on my old Kentucky home when they run for the roses tomorrow. With a forecast calling for thunderstorms all day, the 136th Kentucky Derby figures to be run in the slop.

"The wet track throws a monkey wrench into everything," said Ron Anderson, the agent for jockey Garrett Gomez, who rides 3-1 favorite Lookin At Lucky. "That’s going to eliminate a bunch of horses that haven’t trained very well here in the mud."

Anderson, an astute handicapper, has narrowed the 20-horse field down to four possible winners.

"I like my horse the best," he said, noting Lookin At Lucky’s bullet five-furlong breeze in 1:00 4/5 over a muddy strip on Monday. Based on their morning drills in the goo this past week, he tabs Mission Impazible, Paddy O’Prado and the filly Devil May Care as the other contenders.

An off-track is just one piece in the handicapping puzzle. Here are some others:

* Lookin At Lucky from post 1: The way trainer Bob Baffert reacted to drawing inside, you’d think they were making Lookin At Lucky break from behind the starting gate.

Maybe you can’t blame him. In both starts this year, Lucky got stuck in traffic and was tripped up by other horses. Most horses wouldn’t hit the board after the trouble he had, but he recovered both times, winning the Rebel and finishing third in the Santa Anita Derby. That experience should serve him well in tomorrow’s crowded field.

Gomez, asked about the post, said simply, "The shortest way around." The fact is, since Ferdinand (1986) was the last horse to win from post 1 in a 16-horse field, no favorite has broken from the rail, only six went off lower than 10-1, and most were 30-1 or higher. War Admiral (1937), Hill Gail (1952) and Needles (1956) all won from post 1 in fields of 16 or more; and in the 23-horse stampede in 1974, Cannonade won from post 2.

* Will there be a pace meltdown? A speed duel appears likely: 5-1 second choice Sidney’s Candy, who breaks from post 20, won his last three starts gate-to-wire. So did his stablemate, Line of David. Looking At Lucky’s stablemate, Conveyance, set the pace in all five of his starts. Super Saver, Discreetly Mine and American Lion each won stakes leading all the way.

"On paper, everyone can see there’s four or five speed horses in a race, and then there’s no speed," Gomez said. "We’ll just play it by ear."

But except for those rare times when a Spend a Buck, a Go for Gin or a War Emblem shakes loose on the lead, chances are that a few horses will knock each other out on the front end, setting things up for a horse like Mine That Bird, who rallied from dead last over a sloppy track last year.

* Can the filly do it? Devil May Care does not fit the profile of the last two fillies to win the roses, Genuine Risk and Winning Colors, both of which dominated other fillies and already had run well against colts.

But trainer Todd Pletcher’s Rags to Riches in 2007 was the first female to win the Belmont Stakes in 102 years, and as he pointed out, running a filly against males worked last year when Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta beat the boys at the highest levels.

"Devil May Care is really competitive," jockey John Velazquez said. "No matter what horse you put next to her, she wants to be better, and she would gallop out better than the colts when she worked."

Post staff selection

Debbie Little: Lookin At Lucky, Super Saver, Make Music for Me

Bill Smith: Jackson Bend, Ice Box, Lookin at Lucky

Chris Shaw: Ice Box, Devil May Care, Mission Impazible

Tim Sullivan: Backtalk, Dublin, Lookin at Lucky

Hondo: Jackson Bend, Devil May Care, Super Saver

Horse-By-Horse Preview and Picks
By Dan Nowak

There is a 70 percent chance for rain-thunderstorms for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs Saturday with the possibility of two inches of rain falling. If it rains it is likely a horse or two will be scratched.

Horses listed in order of post position followed by odds and analysis.

Lookin At Lucky (3-1) – Very unfavorable post, forcing him to either start fast and expend energy to avoid being squeezed back, or drop back at the start and hope he doesn’t get boxed in behind horses.

Ice Box (10-1) – Had a huge four-furlong workout in 46.2 seconds in the mud at Churchill Downs on April 23. Can get the distance but the six-week layoff is a negative and the post position doesn’t help.

Noble’s Promise (12-1) – Horses racing on synthetic surfaces have usually failed on the dirt in the Derby. This horse has done his best racing over synthetics and should struggle in this spot.

Super Saver (15-1) – This is the best mudder of all the horses in this race. If it’s sloppy he could steal the win racing just behind the pace or on the front end.

Line of David (30-1) – Expect him to take the early lead. If he carries his speed like he did in the Arkansas Derby, no one might catch him if the track is sloppy and he isn’t pushed hard in the race.

Stately Victor (30-1) – Possesses a huge late kick that got him a win in the Blue Grass Stakes but he’s done his best racing on turf and synthetic tracks. Mud might help.

American Lion (30-1) – In his only start on dirt he won the Illinois Derby wire-to-wire. The big question is can he get the 1 ¼-mile distance?

Dean’s Kitten (50-1) – Mixed signals here. He has trained well at Churchill Downs but ran a dismal fifth in his only start on a dirt track. Staying away.

Make Music For Me (50-1) – This synthetic surface/turf runner has never run on dirt and he may be better suited for sprints.

Paddy O’Prado (20-1) – Got a red flag here. If it rains as expected, note that he finished seventh in the slop at Churchill Downs in his racing debut.

Devil May Care (10-1) – The lone filly in the race has speed, a solid jockey and has done well in the mud. But she might be in a tough spot here considering she likely wouldn’t have even won against the girls in the Kentucky Oaks.

Conveyance (12-1) – Another horse training well at Churchill Downs but his front-running style indicates a late fade at this distance.

Jackson Bend (15-1) – Has a case of seconditis in 2010 including a pair of second place finishes to one-time Derby favorite Eskendereya who is out with an injury. Needs to be included in the exotics (exacta, trifecta, etc.) with his in-the-money potential.

Mission Impazible (20-1) – Another horse who likes mud but his winning time last time out in the Louisiana Derby was very slow.

Discreetly Mine (30-1) – Never showed a late kick in the Louisiana Derby despite the slow winning time. Potential pace casualty for the frontrunner.

Awesome Act (10-1) – A lot to like here with an impressive workout in the mud at Churchill Downs Tuesday. He has a solid jockey to take advantage of his late-closing kick (see Gotham Stakes). My pick to win.

Dublin (12-1) – At age 2, showed a huge late kick but at age 3 weakened or faded late in his three races. Finished out of the money in his only off-track start. But you can never totally ignore a D. Wayne Lukas-trained horse.

Backtalk (50-1) – Is he this year’s Mine That Bird long shot (50-1) who won the Derby last year? Has two wins at Churchill Downs and two wins over sloppy tracks but has struggled beyond a mile.

Homeboykris (50-1) – The Joe Torre-owned horse has a proven trainer but the nine-week layoff and outside post is not a good combination.

Sidney’s Candy (5-1) – He had a solid workout in the mud at Churchill Downs but has raced primarily on synthetic surfaces. This post will pose a big problem.

Race day advice: This race should produce huge payoffs, especially with the rain in the forecast. While most of the horses have at least one item that can compromise their chance for a win, Awesome Act looks solid in every way. He has trained well at Churchill Downs, has a solid jockey in Julian Leparoux and showed a strong late kick in the Gotham Stakes. Ignore his third place in the Wood Memorial where he had a terrible trip.

Picks: 1. Awesome Act, 2. Super Saver, 3. Ice Box and if it does not rain I would drop Super Saver out and replace him with Jackson Bend. My plan is to play several 4-horse or 5-horse trifecta keys with Awesome Act or Super Saver on top with combinations underneath that include Ice Box, Jackson Bend, Sidney’s Candy, American Lion, Mission Impazible and Dublin.

Start handicapping for Derby slop
By Marcus Hersh

LOUISVILLE, Ky. Well, it could be worse. No one is talking about hurricanes, tsunamis, or a plague of locusts. But let's face it: The weather outside is frightful this Kentucky Derby day.

As of 9:30 local time, rain had been falling steadily for hours. Not downpours, but a steady, soaking rain. The question is this: How much worse will things get?

The answer depends on who you ask. Some local forecasters are calling for the rain to begin subsiding shortly after noon, saying that a window of dryness, perhaps even including sun, could develop in the hours before Derby post time. The Churchill track surface is notoriously quick-drying, and if that forecast comes to pass, who knows the surface could even be verging on fast for Derby 136.

But meteorologists are seeing some conflict in their forecasting models, and that dry window is no sure thing. The weather website weather.com shows a 70 to 80 percent chance of rain pretty much all afternoon, and mentions the chance of severe weather starting around 3 o'clock.

In any case, the Churchill racing surface will start the day termed sloppy. The turf course is rated yielding, and the two non-stakes grass races, the third and the fifth, have been taken off grass. The Distaff Turf Mile and the Woodford Reserve remain on turf for now.

Churchill trackman Butch Lehr hasn't done anything to the main track since Friday evening. After Friday's races, the surface was harrowed, rolled, graded, watered, and sealed. Saturday's morning training session, scheduled from 6-8, was called off Friday afternoon.

Will Pays for the $2 Oaks-Derby Double Wager

1 - Lookin at Lucky $22.40
2 - Ice Box $59.60
3 - Noble's Promise $96.60
4 - Super Saver $56.60
5 - Line of David $151.80
6 - Stately Victor $87.20
7 - American Lion $137.80
8 - Dean's Kitten $235.40
9 - Make Music for Me $278.00
10 - Paddy O'Prado $106.20
11 - Devil May Care $67.80
12 - Conveyance $118.80
13 - Jackson Bend $122.80
14 - Mission Impazible $102.60
15 - Discreetly Mine $241.00
16 - Awesome Act $39.20
17 - Dublin $108.20
18 - Backtalk $250.20
19 - Homeboykris $309.20
20 - Sidney's Candy $46.40