Savannah Sports
Kentucky Derby Plays
13..I Want Revenge
15..Dunkirk
10..Regal Ranson
7..Papa Clem
Jeff Siegel
With the injury to Quality Road and the possibility of a wet track combined with a favorable pace scenario, Friesan Fire becomes one of our major contenders and we'll substitute the Larry Jones-trained colt for the non-starting Florida Derby winner. Drawn comfortably inside, Friesan Fire should enjoy an ideal pace prompting trip and has worked well enough to expect a top effort despite a less-than-ideal layoff of seven weeks. We'll stick with Dunkirk as our top pick and continue to use I Want Revenge and long shot Mr. Hot Stuff in our exotics, along with Friesan Fire.
Therefore, our updated wagering strategy is as follows:
$20 Win Dunkirk ($20)
$5 Trifecta Key Dunkirk over Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge, Mr. Hot Stuff ($30)
$10 Exacta Box Dunkirk, I Want Revenge ($20)
$1 Trifecta Box Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge, Mr. Hot Stuff ($24)
$3 Exacta Box Dunkirk, Mr. Hot Stuff ($6)
SELECTIONS:
1. DUNKIRK 2. I WANT REVENGE 3. MR. HOT STUFF 4. FRIESAN FIRE
Horseplayerpro
The late defections of Quality Road and Square Eddie provided enough drama over the past few days, so Derby 135 did not need to have any more hijinx in the post position draw. Luckily for the main contenders, that was exactly the case.
None of the heavy hitters appears tremendously compromised by the 20-horse lineup as it shook out from the pill-pull and selection process. If anyone might be compromised, it could be Desert Party, who leaves from post 19 and is not a push-button type horse like Big Brown, who was much the best to overcome the 20-hole last year.
The speed of the race figures to come from posts 6-10, where Friesan Fire, Papa Clem, Join in the Dance and Regal Ransom take up residence. Horses like Chocolate Candy, General Quarters and I Want Revenge, who leave from the 11-13 slots, figure to benefit from space opening up to their inside as the speed horses open up early.
Trainer Bob Baffert opted to go outside with Pioneerof The Nile in the No. 16. Part of the reason was to keep the horse, who has never raced on dirt, on the outside and free of the majority of kick-back that he’s never experienced. Sounds like a shrewd move and could pay dividends.
Dunkirk breaks just to Pioneerof The Nile’s inside in the 15-hole, meaning he’s first in the auxiliary starting gate and will have a bit of extra breathing room to his immediately left.
All in all, this was a non-news event from a handicapper’s standpoint.
Mighty Quinn
Saturday it's Dunkirk in the Derby ($25 win and place).
Hondo
Today, His Red-Hot Aitchness will back Friesen Fire in the Derby with a five-unit win wager
DESTROYTHEBOOK SPORTS
CHURCHILL DOWNS
Race 1
#4- Awesome Grannie
Race 3
#5- Luv Gov
Race 4
#6- Brother Keith
Race 6
#3- Kodiak Kowboy
Race 7
#4- Four Gifts
Race 8
#2- Visit
#9- Elusive Lady
Race 9
#9- Game Face
#4- Bear Now
Race 10
#8- Cowboy Cal
#4- Court Vision
*Race 11*
#15- Dunkirk
#4- Advice
#2- Musket Man
Dave Tuley
The top contenders…
The general consensus has this race coming down to the 'Fab Four' of I WANT REVENGE, who rallied from a bad start to impressively win the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct; PIONEEROF THE NILE, who ruled the West Coast preps, including the Santa Anita Derby; FRIESEN FIRE, who swept the Louisiana trio of preps; and DUNKIRK, who was second in the Florida Derby and is regarded as the wise-guy horse. DESERT PARTY is considered the top international threat, though he lost to stablemate REGAL RANSOM in Dubai.
How the race will be run…
The defection of some speed horses had some people saying this could be a paceless race, but trainer Todd Pletcher's JOIN IN THE DANCE should set the early fractions. REGAL RANSOM, PAPA CLEM and MINE THAT BIRD could be among the other pace factors with I WANT REVENGE, PIONEEROF THE NILE and FRIESEN FIRE among those in the next tier. The hotter the pace, the more it sets up for closers such as DUNKIRK, MR. HOT STUFF, HOLD ME BACK, GENERAL QUARTERS, and MUSKET MAN.
My picks to win…
REGAL RANSOM should be among the early leaders, but doesn't need to be in front. And unlike JOIN IN THE DANCE, who is a sprinter, REGAL RANSOM is bred to go the distance as the son of Distorted Humor, who was also the sire of 2003 Derby and Preakness winner Funny Cide. He should be able to overtake the pacesetter when he wants and the thought here is he has enough class to hold off any challengers.
PIONEEROF THE NILE beat I WANT REVENGE twice and PAPA CLEM once and had their connections fleeing California, flattering him by going on to win major prep races along the way. PIONEEROF THE NILE should be within striking distance throughout. He is my most likely winner among the top contenders, and the only question about him is if he handles the dirt as well as his previously vanquished California runners have when they left the state.
MR. HOT STUFF is the son of two-time Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow, so there shouldn't be a question of him getting the mile-and-a-quarter distance. He should be among the late runners who could light up the tote board if he gets a faster pace to run at than he had in the Santa Anita Derby when he was still able to rally for third for the second straight race.
My long shot…
MUSKET MAN was looking like my top choice for a while as he has done everything asked of him by his connections, winning not only the Tampa Bay Derby but then the Illinois Derby as he has won five of six lifetime starts over four different tracks. I was hoping that because he didn't prep on the "major" circuits he might still fly under the radar. There appears to be more people jumping on the Musket Man bandwagon, but he should still be a value play at anything around his 20-1 morning-line odds and should be used in exotics.
Steve Davidowitz
The top contenders…
I WANT REVENGE won the Wood Memorial as though he was being drafted by the NFL; DUNKIRK was a solid second in the Florida Derby; FRIESEN FIRE swept the Derby preps in Louisiana and trainer Larry Jones had seconds in the last two Derbies; PIONEEROF THE NILE seeks fifth straight and trainer Bob Baffert seeks fourth Derby; DESERT PARTY and REGAL RANSOM ran well in Dubai and also won in the US; CHOCOLATE CANDY and MR. HOT STUFF rallied behind 'Pioneer' in the Santa Anita Derby; Lane's End winner HOLD ME BACK looked good chasing GENERAL QUARTERS in the Blue Grass; MUSKET MAN won the Tampa and Illinois Derbies; PAPA CLEM, second to 'Pioneer' and 'Friesen', won the Arkansas Derby.
How the race will be run…
There are no hot-tempered speed horses in this year's Kentucky Derby, but a realistic pace is assured with longshot JOIN IN THE DANCE likely to go to the front, attended by REGAL RANSOM and ATOMIC RAIN. All to be chased by several legit contenders, including PAPA CLEM and fast working FRIESEN FIRE; while PIONEEROF THE NILE, I WANT REVENGE and MUSKET MAN should be in the next flight ready to make their moves on the far turn. The deep closers who will need a contested pace to fire a winning late run include DUNKIRK, CHOCOLATE CANDY, DESERT PARTY, HOLD ME BACK, MR. HOT STUFF, GENERAL QUARTERS and SUMMER BIRD.
My picks to win…
PIONEEROF THE NILE. Solid form, great Derby trainer and champion jockey, 'Pioneerof' finished well in workouts and gallops over the track and is bred to handle dirt and Derby distance.
HOLD ME BACK won Lane's End off long layoff with a big turn move, had a perfect prep in the Blue Grass Stakes, trained well at Churchill Downs and has big odds here with three-time Derby winning jockey Kent Desormeaux. But he also must prove he can handle dirt.
FRIESEN FIRE has been consistently good and will be in a favorable striking position. However, despite Jones' training ability, he has not raced in seven weeks or beyond 1-1/16 miles.
My long shot…
Please see the Billy Mott trained HOLD ME BACK, whom I almost picked to win this race and certainly will use prominently in my exotic plays. Three other longshots to consider: DESERT PARTY, CHOCOLATE CANDY and GENERAL QUARTERS. 'Desert' has made a favorable impression since being shipped from Dubai; 'Chocolate's' local workouts are showing signs of some improvement; and 'General' already has won two stakes at big odds. Meanwhile, DUNKIRK may just be the best horse, but he lacks experience. I WANT REVENGE did win the Gotham and overcame much trouble to win a weak 'Wood', but was unable to beat 'Pioneerof' in California.
Platinum Plays
PAPA CLEM 20/1
SAFESTWAGERS
Churchill Downs, Sat., May 2nd, 2009 Pick 3's, or Doubles:
Race 9) 3
Race 10) 3/4/6/9
Race 11) 6/11/13/16
Race 9) 7 Furlongs Humana for $ 300,000 Selections: 3/9/5/7
# 3 Informed Decision* Won last (G1 Madison) after a 6 month vacation, and may even have more pop today. Set a track record at this distance in prior.
Safer Bet:a) # 3 to Win, Place or Show
Exotics b) Exacta: 3 with 5/7/9
c) Trifecta Key:3 with 5/7/9
d) Super Key: 3 with 5/7/9
Race 10) No Bets
Race 11) 1 1/4 Miles Kentucky Derby for $2,000,000
Selections: 6/13/16/11
# 6 Freisan Fire* The two knocks on this colt are that: a) He hasn't gone the extra 1/16th mile yet,and that he's been off for 7 weeks........ We don't think it matters.He has improved in every start. You may want to go back and watch his win in the La Derby. He was wide, challenged, and then found a new gear which put him in a league of his own. The last horse he easily passed was "Papa Clem" who went and won the Ark Derby in his next start. Worked 5f on April 27th in 57/4, and was not breathing hard afterwards.... wow. # 13 I Want Revenge* This could easily be a special horse, but he has been beaten by some of these. In The Gotham, he faced some undefeated stock ( a few with possible Derby hopes) and beat them with ease, letting up at the end. In his last race he broke poorly and then weaved thru traffic for the win. Many thought this was the most dominating 3 year old win of the year. Although he was much the best, he wasn't really that far back after the start. We think he will be your luke-warm favorite.
#16 Pioneer Of The Nile* The knock is that no horse has won while switching from synthetic to dirt. But..... synthetic hasn't been around that long and the trainer (Baffert) knows what he's doing. Comes into the race with 3 wins in a row and 1.2 million in earnings.
#11 Chocolate Candy* There should be lots of early speed today. This colt can grind his way into contention. Morning-line is 20-1. This should be your best chance of an upset.
Safer Bet:a) # 6 to Win, Place or Show Exotics:
b) Exacta Box: 6/11/13/16
c) Tri Box: 6/11/13/16
d) Tri Key: 6 with 11/13/16/19
e) Super Key: 6 with 11/13/16/19
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TRACKPICKS
#6 Friesan Fire 5-1
#11 Chocolate Candy 20-1
#15 Dunkirk 4-1
#4 Advice 30-1
EXOTIC BETS
$2 TRIPLE BOX ( 6, 11, 15, 4 ) = $48
$2 EXACTA BOX ( 6, 11, 15, 4 ) = $48
$1 TRIPLE KEY > ALL / 6, 11, 5, 4 / 6, 11, 15, 4 = $216
$1 TRIPLE KEY > 6, 11, 15, 4 / 6, 1, 15, 4 / ALL = $192
MeatAndPotatoes
I decided a couple of weeks ago that I will be betting Friesan Fire in the 2009 Kentucky Derby which is always run the first Saturday in May. I will be betting this horse for several reasons. The first is the trainer Larry Jones who's horses have run second in the last two(2) Kentucky Derby's. You always want to make sure you have a veteran trainer when betting the biggest horse race of the year. The second reason is I saw how fast this horse was running down the stretch in the Louisiana Derby. I have not seen a horse look that impressive in a prep race leading up to the Kentucky Derby since Barbaro won the 2006 Florida Derby. The third reason is a conspiracy theory that I really believe in. The Fair Grounds in New Orleans is now owned by Churchill Downs. There is NO DOUBT in my mind that Churchill Downs wants to make the Louisiana Derby that number one major prep race heading into the Kentucky Derby. If Friesan Fire wins the Kentucky Derby on Saturday they are well on their way to their long term goal(please note that the Fair Grounds is the only racetrack owned by Churchill Downs that has slot machines). The fourth and final reason is Friesan Fire has proven he can run on a fast or sloppy track. Nobody knows what they track conditions will look like come race time, but we all know Friesan Fire has proven himself on any track in 2009 and that is a very comforting feeling.
The Pick: Bet Friesan Fire(#6) across the board WIN - PLACE - SHOW!
Free Selection from Platinum Plays
KENTUCKY DERBY: PAPA CLEM @ 20/1
RedZone Sports
Hold Me Back (15 to 1)
SportsOddsandPicks
#16 PIONEER OF THE NILE to Win (Morning Line 4-to-1)
#13 I WANT REVENGE to Place(Morning Line 3-to-1)
#2 MUSKET MAN to Show (Morning Line 20-to-1)