Knockout Notes
By Chris David
The knockout stage of the 2010 World Cup begins this weekend from South Africa, as 16 teams will look to advance to the quarterfinals. Group play concluded and only two countries, Argentina (4/1) and the Netherlands (13/2), were able to sweep through with three victories in three games. Along with the Spain (5/1) and Brazil (4/1), this pair of powerhouses is considered the top contenders to win the championship.
Even though this quartet lived up to their expectations during group play, we did see some clubs fail and fail miserably. France (16/1) was probably the biggest disappointment, and Italy (11/1) didn’t do much better as the defending champion. Bodog.com had the Ivory Coast as the top team from Africa and it couldn’t advance to the knockout stage as well.
According to Bodog.com, the biggest longshots still left are Japan (66/1) South Korea (125/1) and Slovakia (200/1). All three countries had odds as high as 200/1 or more when the opening odds were announced.
Here is a closer look at the future odds for the final 16 teams.
Brazil 4/1
Argentina 4/1
Spain 5/1
Netherlands 13/2
Germany 11/1
England 12/1
Uruguay 14/1
Portugal 18/1
USA 33/1
Paraguay 33/1
Chile 40/1
Ghana 40/1
Mexico 50/1
Japan 66/1
South Korea 125/1
Slovakia 150/1
Let’s take a closer look at this week’s knockout matchups.
Saturday, June 26
Uruguay vs. North Korea
Group Results
Uruguay 0 France 0 - Draw
Uruguay 3 South Africa 0 - Win
Uruguay 1 Mexico 0 - Win
South Korea 2 Greece 0 - Win
South Korea 1 Argentina 4 - Loss
South Korea 2 Nigeria 2 – Draw
Betting Notes: Uruguay has been listed as a short favorite (-120) over South Korea (+350). Gamblers looking for the draw after 90 minutes can earn a modest return of plus-230 (Bet $100 to win $230). Uruguay has watched the ‘under’ cash in two of its three group play matches while the ‘over’ was 2-1 in South Korea’s three preliminary games. The total is listed at 2 ½ goals, with the ‘under’ shaded to minus-200. Uruguay and South Korea have met four times and Uruguay has captured all four encounters.
USA vs. Ghana
Group Results
USA 1 England 1 – Draw
USA 2 Slovenia 2 – Draw
USA 1 Algeria 0 – Win
Ghana 1 Serbia 0 – Win
Ghana 1 Australia 1 - Draw
Ghana 0 Germany 1 – Loss
Betting Notes: After barely surviving group play, USA will face yet another test against Ghana, the lone African country remaining. Bettors are siding with USA (+140) over Ghana (+190) and similar to the other matchup on Saturday, the total is listed at 2 ½ goals with the ‘under’ receiving more action at minus-200. The number seems fair, considering Ghana’s defense is considered one of the best and the Black Stars haven’t scored more than one goal in their last 13 international appearances. Also, USA watched the ‘under’ go 2-1 in its opening three matches. USA will be looking to avenge a 2-1 loss to Ghana in group play of the 2006 World Cup, which eliminated the Americans.
Sunday, June 27
Germany vs. England
Group Results
Germany 4 Australia 0 – Win
Germany 0 Serbia 1 – Loss
Germany 1 Ghana 0 – Win
England 1 USA 1 – Draw
England 0 Algeria 0 – Draw
England 1 Slovenia 0 – Win
Betting Notes: This first round matchup is arguably the toughest to predict and the oddsmakers have been adjusting to both squads. Germany (+170) is a slight underdog to England (+155) and some pundits believe the game could be a draw (+220). After exploding for four goals against Australia in the opener, the Germans were held to just one goal in their last two. England’s offense was missing in group play (2 goals) but the defense only gave up one goal and that was a gaffe in the opener against USA that should never have scored. The total is listed at 2 ½ goals (Under -200). The two rich soccer countries have met 27 times, with England winning 12, Germany taking 10 to go with five draws. The past two encounters saw final scores of 2-1, as each country earned a win.
Argentina vs. Mexico
Group Results
Argentina 1 Nigeria 0 – Win
Argentina 4 South Korea 1 – Win
Argentina 2 Greece 0 - Win
Mexico 1 South Africa 1 – Draw
Mexico 2 France 0 – Win
Mexico 0 Uruguay 1 – Loss
Betting Notes: Argentina has been made a healthy favorite (-250) over Slovakia (+700) and deservingly so. Diego Maradona and his troops have outscored opponents 7-1 during its perfect 3-0 group play run and are poised to be a serious threat in the knockout round. Mexico advanced with four points and three of them came against a France team that imploded once it landed in South Africa. Ironically, this pair met on the same stage of the knockout round in the 2006 World Cup from Germany and Argentina escaped with a 2-1 win over Mexico, with the game-winner coming in extra time. The draw cashed tickets that day and is listed at plus-315 (Bet $100 to win $315) for this year’s match. Two of three Mexico’s group play matches went ‘under’ the total and Argentina posted a 2-1 ‘under’ mark as well. Sure enough, Bodog has shaded the 2 ½-goal total toward the ‘under’ (-140).
Monday, June 28
Netherlands vs. Slovakia
Group Results
Netherlands 2 Denmark 0 – Win
Netherlands 1 Japan 0 – Win
Netherlands 2 Cameroon 1 – Win
Slovakia 1 New Zealand 1 – Draw
Slovakia 2 Paraguay 3 – Loss
Slovakia 3 Italy 2 – Win
Betting Notes: Netherlands (-250) coasted through group play with a 3-0 record and the Dutch are expected to advance to the quarterfinals when it meets Slovakia (+700). The Dutch haven’t been overly impressive on offense but the defense has surrendered one goal in three games. You could see the Netherlands attack pick up the pace in this spot, since Slovakia has given up six goals in group play, three coming in a loss to Paraguay. Despite that fact, the 2 ½-goal total is leaning towards the ‘under’ (-150).
Brazil vs. Chile
Group Results
Brazil 2 North Korea 1 - Draw
Brazil 3 Ivory Coast 1 - Win
Brazil 0 Portugal 0 - Draw
Chile 1 Honduras 0 – Win
Chile 1 Switzerland 0 – Win
Chile 1 Spain 2 - Loss
Tuesday, June 29
Paraguay vs. Japan
Group Results
Paraguay 1 Italy 1 – Draw
Paraguay 2 Slovakia 0 – Win
Paraguay 0 New Zealand 0 – Draw
Japan 1 Cameroon 0 – Win
Japan 0 Netherland 1 - Loss
Japan 3 Denmark 1 – Win
Betting Notes: Something has to give when Paraguay (+120) and Japan (+225) meet in the first round, since neither team has ever reached the quarterfinals of the World Cup. A defensive battle is expected in this matchup, considering Paraguay has only surrendered one goal so far and Japan has allowed just two. The total is listed at 2 ½ (Under -180).
Portugal vs. Spain
Group Results
Portugal 0 Ivory Coast 0 – Draw
Portugal 7 North Korea 0 – Win
Portugal 0 Brazil 0 – Draw
Spain 0 Switzerland 1 – Loss
Spain 2 Honduras 0 – Win
Spain 2 Chile 1 - Win
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