Louisiana Derby from Fair Grounds Race Course on March 21, 2020

Saturday's Horse Racing Picks and Analysis - Louisiana Derby from Fair Grounds Race Course on March 21, 2020
March 20, 2020
By Anthony Stabile

Saturday's Horse Racing Picks
2020 Kentucky Derby Prep Predictions
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LOUISIANA DERBY (Grade 2)
Date: Saturday, March 21, 2020
Post Time: 5:49 p.m. ET
TV Coverage: NBCSN
Race #: 12
Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 3/16 miles
Qualification: Three-year-olds
Purse: $1,000,000
Track: Fair Grounds Race Course
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
LOUISIANA DERBY
Handicapping Analysis
(Post-Horse-Morning Line Odds)

1 – Major Fed (8-1) Closed to finish second in the second, slower division of the Risen Star against the grain of the track most recently. Joel Rosario rides for first time. Major player on an even racetrack.

2 – Mailman Money (15-1) Was never able to get over from his wide draw when fourth in division 2 of Risen Star last out. Lost valuable ground on first turn but never really improved position in the stretch. Now he has to deal with more ground.

3 – Wells Bayou (8-1) Ships in from Oaklawn off of a second-place finish in the Southwest. Speedy type should find plenty of company on the front end and will need to navigate an additional furlong while dealing with the other speed.

4 – Chestertown (15-1) Winless in two starts against open company after breaking his maiden against fellow New York-breds at Aqueduct in December. Made up some ground late in an entry-level allowance/optional claimer last out.

5 – Social Afleet (50-1) Beat fellow Louisiana-breds in two of his last three starts. Would have been tough in a state-bred stakes earlier on the card.

6 – Shake Some Action (15-1) Won both of his starts going long, a maiden tally on turf before beating Chestertown, after closing well in his sprint debut. Gets an acid test here but runs like a horse that should love the added distance.

7 – Sharecropper (20-1) Finished fourth in the allowance/optional claimer and would need to find four lengths on top two from that heat AND deal with the already stakes-tested.

8 – Royal Act (10-1) Ships in from California after closing well to finish second in the Bob Lewis, his first start on dirt after racing on turf in hi first two tries. Blinkers seemed to help last out

9 – Portos (8-1) Ships in from New York off of a third-place finish in the Withers. Pletcher has kept this horse racing at added distances and this should be right up his alley.

10 – Enforceable (7-2) Made up a ton of ground to finish second in the first division of the Risen Star and was arguably the most impressive sophomore that day. Gets a little more distance and plenty of pace to run at. Major player.

11 – Ny Traffic (15-1) Failed to capitalize on the speed bias when he faded to third in division two of Risen Star. Gets a pair of blinkers for this but the distance is likely to much for him to handle.

12 – Lynn’s Map (30-1) Made up some ground late last out but never really threatened. Has done his best work over wet tracks.

13 – Silver State (7-2) Failed to make up any ground last in division 1 of the Risen Star as the 3-1 chalk last out when he settled for third. Seems to have lost some potency as the distances have gotten longer, which doesn’t bode well for him here, but he’ll have plenty of pace to run at.

14 – Modernist (6-1) Is a perfect two-for-two going nine furlongs, including a win in division 2 of Risen Star where he was on or near the lead the entire way from his rail draw. He’s stuck outside now but there is a long run to the first turn. Runs like a horse that will go all day.

15 – Lynn’s Map (20-1) Closed to finish four lengths behind Modernist most recently after breaking his maiden in his fourth try two starts back. Would need a scratch to get into the field.

LOUISIANA DERBY
Predictions - If I had $100
$40 Win on 14
$10 Exacta Box 14 with 1-9-10