Mayweather-Pacquiao Betting News and Notes

Mayweather-Pacquiao Odds and Props
By: Marcus DiNitto
Sportingnews.com

Neither Floyd Mayweather Jr. nor Manny Pacquiao knock a lot of opponents out anymore, and that reality is reflected in the odds posted at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook for their May 2 bout.

Pacquiao’s last seven wins have come by decision, Miguel Cotto being the last opponent he stopped, via a 12th-round TKO on Nov. 11, 2009. With a record of 57-5-2 with 38 KOs, his career knockout percentage is 59.38.

Mayweather-by-decision has been a pretty safe prediction for Money’s fights. Five straight opponents have gone the distance against the still-undefeated Mayweather, whose last knockout game against Victor Ortiz on Sept. 17, 2011. With a record of 47-0 and 26 KOs, Mayweather’s knockout percentage is 55.32.

Many pundits, therefore, believe Mayweather will win by decision on May 2, and ‘Mayweather-by-decision’ is the odds-on favorite in the Westgate’s exact-result prop. On the total-round prop, betting OVER 11.5 rounds requires laying a rather hefty price of -300.

Pacquiao-by-decision, though, may present some betting value. It’s priced at 9-to-2 odds, significantly juicier than the 2-to-1 price at which Pacquiao is offered on the money line. And based on Pacquiao’s recent lack of knockouts and Mayweather’s defense-first style, it seems likely for a Pacquiao win to come by decision.

Here’s a look at the Westgate’s set of odds for the Mayweather-Pacquiao bout:

Money-line odds
Manny Pacquiao +200 (+235)
Floyd Mayweather Jr. -240 (opened -275)

Total-round props
OVER 11.5 -300
UNDER 11.5+250

Exact-result prop
Manny Pacquiao by KO, TKO or DQ 5/1
Manny Pacquiao by decision 9/2
Floyd Mayweather Jr. by KO, TKO or DQ 6/1
Floyd Mayweather Jr. by decision 4/7
Draw 20/1

Books ready for Floyd-Manny
VegasInsider.com

Fight week has finally arrived and the showdown between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao takes place this Saturday night at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The championship bout is being dubbed as the “richest fight” in boxing history. It’s create a purse in the $300 million range, ringside tickets close to $100,000, over 150,000 hotel rooms booked in Las Vegas and a pay-per-view price just short of $100.

Speculation in Las Vegas is that this will be the most booked fight of all-time and the casinos, especially the MGM properties, will produce handles comparable to the Super Bowl.

The MGM properties are also the only commercial property allowed to show the fight in Clark County, Nevada, which should provide another boost at the betting counter.

While the handle is growing in Las Vegas, there are plenty of bettors at Sportsbook.ag, a major offshore betting shop, getting ready for the main event.

Senior Betting consultant Matt James of Sportsbook.ag provides insight on the upcoming fight and answered questions from VI for the Saturday’s fight.

He explained their stance on the odds. “When this fight was rumored to be made in 2012, we opened Mayweather at -160 but that never happened. In December, we sent out Mayweather as a -275 favorite,” said James.

“We don’t expect too much movement from our current line. The betting public will be on Manny and the wise guys money is expected to be on Floyd. Remember, we opened Mayweather -275 back in December, but when the fight was formally and officially announced in February at that time we were at Mayweather -260. All the early money was on Pacquiao to the point that it drove our price down to -200, but since then we have seen some money show on Mayweather and we’re currently dealing -205.”

“I don’t imagine this fight moving very much from its current number, unless a very large betting group gets involved and I can only imagine them hammering Mayweather because any value on Pacquiao is all but gone at only +170 to +180 range,” said James.

According to Sportsbook.ag, the latest betting percentages are leaning on Mayweather but the ticket count is heavy on Pacquiao. Follow the Betting Trends at Sportsbook.ag for the fight.

James couldn’t discuss exact numbers with VI due to privacy issues but they’ve already booked plenty of several high 5-figure wagers over the past few weeks and expect multiple more before the fight goes off.

“Our current limits on this fight is $10,000 but our VIP customers limits far exceed that $10k level,” explained James.

Similar to the casinos in Las Vegas, this will be the most booked fight ever at Sportsbook.ag.

James said, “We expect this fight to be the largest boxing event in the history of our company and we’re currently close to the De La Hoya-Mayweather volume back in 2006, which topped our list.”

Sportsbook.ag is also offering a large variety of props on the fight and bettors have started to play those heavily too. According to James, they’re at risk on a few wagers.

“Our customers are loving the draw and they’re also hoping the fight to end with a knockout. We’ll need this fight to go to a decision and also hoping that Mayweather has his arm raised. As of right now, we’d lose about 5 percent if Pacquiao wins and that’s by decision,” said James.

Listed below are the current odds and props at Sportsbook.ag for Saturday’s bout.

Betting Odds
Floyd Mayweather Jr.-205
Manny Pacquiao +175

Final Result Odds
Draw 10/1
Mayweather Jr.by Decision 5/7
Mayweather Jr.by KO-TKO-DQ 5/1
Pacquiao by Decision 4/1
Pacquiao by KO-TKO-DQ 4/1

Final Outcome
Mayweather Jr.wins by unanimous decision 7/5
Pacquiao wins by KO-TKO-DQ 4/1
Mayweather Jr.wins by KO-TKO-DQ 5/1
Mayweather Jr.wins by split decision 5/1
Mayweather Jr.wins by majority decision 6/1
Pacquiao wins by unanimous decision 15/2
Pacquiao wins by split decision 12/1
Draw-Majority draw 16/1
Pacquiao wins by majority decision 16/1
Draw-Technical draw 19/1
Draw-Split decision draw 24/1
Draw-Unanimous draw 24/1

Result Specials
1-3 Round Mayweather Jr.Wins Fight 20/1
1-3 Round Pacquiao Wins Fight 22/1

1-6 Round Mayweather Jr.Wins Fight 22/1
1-6 Round Pacquiao Wins Fight 15/1

4-6 Round Mayweather Jr.Wins Fight 18/1
4-6 Round Pacquiao Wins Fight 16/1

7-9 Round Mayweather Jr.Wins Fight 16/1
7-9 Round Pacquiao Wins Fight 14/1

7-12 Round Mayweather Jr.Wins Fight 20/1
7-12 Round Pacquiao Wins Fight 14/1

10-12 Round Mayweather Jr.Wins Fight 22/1
10-12 Round Pacquiao Wins Fight 20/1

12 Round Decision Mayweather Jr.Wins Fight 5/7
12 Round Decision Pacquiao Wins Fight 4/1

12 Round Draw or Technical Draw 10/1

Propositions

Total Round Props
Over 2.5 (-5000)
Under 2.5 (+1800)

Over 3.5 (-4000)
Under 3.5 (+1600)

Over 4.5 (-1600)
Under 4.5 (+900)

Over 5.5 (-1400)
Under 5.5 (+750)

Over 6.5 (-900)
Under 6.5 (+600)

Over 7.5 (-600)
Under 7.5 (+425)

Over 8.5 (-500)
Under 8.5 (+375)

Over 9.5 (-400)
Under 9.5 (+300)

Over 10.5 (-350)
Under 10.5 (+270)

Over 11.5 (-300)
Under 11.5 (+235)

Score Card Handicap
(Any KO is a winner-combined scores on all 3 judges scorecards at bout completion)
Floyd Mayweather Jr.13.5 (+180)
Manny Pacquiao -+13.5 (-225)

Floyd Mayweather-Gets Knocked Down
(Includes any official knock downs KO TKO or DQ)
Yes +230
No -295

Manny Pacquiao-Gets Knocked Down
(Includes any official knock downs KO TKO or DQ)
Yes +215
No -275

First jab or punch landed
Floyd Mayweather Jr.-120
Manny Pacquiao -110

First jab or punch landed by either fighter
Left Hand -135
Right Hand +105

Will there be an accidental foul
(Requiring a referees time out)
Yes -200
No +165
Will Either fighter be knocked down or out
(Includes any official knockdowns KO TKO or DQ)
Yes +175
No -215

Total Knockdowns
(Includes any official knockdowns KO TKO or DQ)
Total Knockdowns Over 1.5 (+375)
Total Knockdowns Under 1.5 (-500)

Total Knockdowns
(Includes any official knockdowns KO TKO or DQ)
Over 2.5 (+550)
Under 2.5 (-800)

Either fighter has a point deducted
(Point deduction ordered by the referee applied to all judges scorecards)
Yes +400
No -550

Fight will end in a Draw
Yes +1000
No -1800

Double Chance
Floyd Mayweather Jr.-185
Manny Pacquiao or Draw +150

Double Chance
Floyd Mayweather Jr.or Draw -225
Manny Pacquiao +180
Mayweather-Wins inside Distance
Yes +500
No -700

Pick the Round Props
(12 Full Rounds=Loss)

1 Round Mayweather Jr.Wins Fight 50/1
1 Round Pacquiao Wins Fight 50/1

2 Round Mayweather Jr.Wins Fight 40/1
2 Round Pacquiao Wins Fight 50/1

3 Round Mayweather Jr.Wins Fight 40/1
3 Round Pacquiao Wins Fight 50/1

4 Round Mayweather Jr.Wins Fight 35/1
4 Round Pacquiao Wins Fight 50/1

5 Round Mayweather Jr.Wins Fight 35/1
5 Round Pacquiao Wins Fight 50/1

6 Round Mayweather Jr.Wins Fight 35/1
6 Round Pacquiao Wins Fight 50/1

7 Round Mayweather Jr.Wins Fight 35/1
7 Round Pacquiao Wins Fight 45/1

8 Round Mayweather Jr.Wins Fight 30/1
8 Round Pacquiao Wins Fight 45/1

9 Round Mayweather Jr.Wins Fight 30/1
9 Round Pacquiao Wins Fight 40/1

10 Round Mayweather Jr.Wins Fight 30/1
10 Round Pacquiao Wins Fight 40/1

11 Round Mayweather Jr.Wins Fight 30/1
11 Round Pacquiao Wins Fight 40/1

12 Round Mayweather Jr.Wins Fight 35/1
12 Round Pacquiao Wins Fight 40/1

Check out more Boxing Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

Mayweather vs. Pacquiao
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

After an agonizing five-year delay for boxing's two biggest stars to meet each other, the wait is finally over. Floyd 'Money' Mayweather is set to square off against Manny 'Pac-Man' Pacquiao in Saturday's main event at MGM Grand Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas.

As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Mayweather installed as a -200 favorite, while Pacquiao was the +170 underdog (risk $100 to win $170). For those looking to back Mayweather at a better price, you can take the unbeaten pugilist to win by a 12-round decision at -130 (risk $130 to win $100).

Both fighters are available to win inside the distance for an attractive +500 payout (risk $100 to win $500).

One bet that has received a lot of attention is for the fight to be scored as a draw. This number opened at 22/1 but was down to 10/1 at most books on Friday. Some Vegas shops were all the way down to 7/1.

Bettors could be using several trains of thought by backing the fight to be ruled a draw. First of all, we all like big payouts and when the number was north of 15/1, that's a nice return. Secondly, a knockout isn't expected (we'll touch on this with the odds on the total in a moment) so most think the judges will decide the contest.

There are also the conspiracy theorists out there. This is the biggest fight in boxing history in terms of the number of dollars being made by everyone involved. Therefore, a draw would result in a rematch and everyone would make out with dollars galore once again. And, after all, boxing has always been considered the most corrupt sport in the world.

Although I personally don't feel like this fight is of the magnitude of Mike Tyson's biggest bouts, there's no disputing the money involved here. The pay-per-view price ($100 for high-definition) is an all-time high and all floor seats cost six figures.

I spoke to the Wynn's race and sports book director Johnny Avello on Wednesday. Avello told VegasInsider.com, "This is the most money and tickets I've ever written for a fight before the actual fight weekend has arrived. I initially said the state would probably have a handle of $40-60 million, but I now think we're going to surpass $60 million for this fight.

"We opened Mayweather at -260 with Pacquiao at +220. We're now (again, this was late Wednesday afternoon) at -215 for Floyd and +185 for Manny. We've taken a lot of big bets on Floyd, but it's been balanced out by more (but smaller) bets on Pacquiao."

When asked who the book needed to profit, Avello said, "Right now we're in a win-win scenario. And I expect more bets to keep coming in on Pacquiao, but the sharp big-money wagers will continue to be on Mayweather."

Most spots are offering various totals for the number of rounds the fight goes. The main total is 11.5 rounds and it's extremely expensive (-340) to back the 'over,' while the 'under' is available for a generous +260 return.

For those thinking we could see an early KO, there's much money to be made. Sportsbook.ag has an adjusted total of 4.5 rounds (-1600 for the 'over,' +900 for the 'under') and 5.5 rounds (-1400 for the 'over', +750 to the 'under').

Mayweather (47-0) has won his last five fights by decision, including back-to-back victories over Marcos Maidana. His last KO came over Victor Ortiz in 2011, but it came when Ortiz wasn't protecting himself after the referee had briefly stopped the fight after Ortiz head-butted Mayweather. If not for the KO of Ortiz in controversial fashion, the last KO victory came against Ricky Hatton way back in 2007.

Pacquiao (57-5-2) has won titles in eight different weight classes, something never before accomplished by another prized fighter in boxing history. Since getting KO'd by Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012, Pacquiao has won three consecutive fights by unanimous decision.

We often hear the old adage that "styles make fights." In this matchup, the styles should make for an entertaining contest. Pacquiao is a volume puncher who is always on the attack, while Mayweather is a counter puncher whose defense is considered to be the best in boxing history.

As for a potential rematch, most conventional wisdom suggests that it's not going to happen if Mayweather wins convincingly. If Pacquiao wins, most think that we can get a rematch, although nothing is assured when dealing with these rival promoters and rival networks (HBO and Showtime).

The rematch notion prompted me to ask Avello about what those odds would look like. When asked if Mayweather would be favored again even if he loses a close decision, Avello told VI, "Oh I don't know about that. If Pacquiao is the better fighter on Saturday night and wins a decision, I don't know why Pacquiao wouldn't be favored in a rematch."

This is probably going to be the biggest weekend in Las Vegas's storied history. Not only do we have this epic fight for the ages, but there's also this little matter of a Game 7 between the Spurs and Clippers in the NBA. There's also this event known as the Kentucky Derby, in addition to the NHL Playoffs and the NFL Draft.

When interviewed by ESPN on Friday, Jay Rood of the MGM said, "We've taken a lot of six-figure bets. One gentlemen bet $350,000 on Pacquiao."

If you want to get your gamble on, it won't be a problem this weekend. The fight is scheduled to start at 11:00 p.m. Eastern.

HBO's Jim Lampley and Roy Jones Jr. will be joined on the call by Showtime's Al Bernstein.