Monday’s Best World Cup Picks
Denmark (-181) vs. Netherlands (+645)
The overriding theme so far in the World Cup has been low-scoring matches. Outside of Germany’s slaughtering of Australia, there hasn’t been a full-time over bet cashed in the tournament’s first three days.
But the Dutch are known for their offensive firepower and a brand of “total football” when defenders can sometimes be mistaken for forwards. The Netherlands is one of the few teams in the tournament who can lose a player the caliber of Arjen Robben (out with a sore hamstring) and not miss a beat.
The Dutch haven’t dropped an international match in their last 12 times on the pitch and boast wins over Mexico, Ghana and the United States in the past few months.
The prospects aren’t as bright for the Danes. Denmark lost to South Africa and Australia in its last two pre-tournament matches and is dealing with injuries to top striker Nicklas Bendtner and talented defender Simon Kjaer.
Worse still, the Danes have been fighting a flu bug the last few weeks. Illness forced manager Morten Olsen to miss practice and press conferences this week.
Pick: Netherlands on the spread (-1, -110)
Italy (+122) vs. Paraguay (+296)
Skepticism surrounds the defending champion heading into its first match of the World Cup. Critics point out Italy is relying on stars past their prime (Fabio Cannavaro?) and won’t be able to keep up with the younger legs of opponents of this year’s tournament.
The injury to creative midfielder Andrea Pirlo is a huge blow. He was a major part of the Azzuri’s World Cup run in 2006 and his playmaking skills can’t be replaced.
Coach Marcello Lippi, who guided Italy to the World Cup title in 2006, is being heavily second guessed with his use of forwards. Media members pressed him on why Antonio Di Natale, perceived as Italy’s best forward, wasn’t playing with the first-string group in practice this week.
''If you don't understand the lineup you should change your trade and give up being journalists,” Lippi told the reporters. “If you don't understand the kind of lineup I am using, you better change jobs. Come on, what excuse do you have?”
The strategy seems apparent. Tread lightly with Paraguay and look for wins against its other two group opponents. La Albirroja are serious customers. They beat Brazil and Argentina in World Cup qualifiers and possess a talented group of forwards.
Pick: Draw (+215)