Pacquiao vs. Algieri Odds and Pick
By: Marcus DiNitto
Sportingnews.com
Manny Pacquiao is a prohibitive favorite in Saturday’s WBO welterweight title bout in Macau (HBO PPV), and, per usual when it comes to boxing, nearly all the early betting action has been on the underdog.
The underdog in this case is American Chris Algieri, who has attracted 95 percent of the bets placed at William Hill sports books in Nevada. Pacquiao opened as the -1100 favorite, but with all the tickets being written on the challenger, those odds were down to -800 (bet $800 to win $100) as of Thursday in Las Vegas. Algieri opened +700 and was being offered at +550 (bet $100 to win $550) on Thursday.
The story is similar at The Wynn, where bookmaker John Avello has a made an adjustment in the underdog’s direction.
“We opened Pacquiao at -950, and we’re down now to -800 because of a few bets on Algieri,” Avello told The Linemakers on Sporting News on Thursday. ”But that’s typical for a Pacquiao fight, where we see all dog money early pushing the favorite price down and those looking to bet the favorite wait till the last moment.”
While underdog money typically comes early for prize fights and sharp bettors wait for the price to come down before making their play on the chalk, with the fight so far away from Vegas, that action may never come.
“I don’t even know if there’s Pacquiao money to be had in this one,” said Avello. “There’s a huge difference in handle – like a ratio of 50-to-1 less – when the fight isn’t in town, so we don’t know how much action we’ll actually see.”
While Avello isn’t encouraged about the potential for large action, in Las Vegas, you never know what large gamblers the casino hosts will bring that the fight may appeal to.
How to bet this fight
Risking a large amount of money to win a little is not appealing to the casual bettor – hence all the underdog action discussed above – but there are better ways to attack the fight, thanks to the props offered at Las Vegas sports books.
While Pacquiao’s trainer Freddie Roach is proclaiming his man will knock out Algieri in the first round, the Filipino’s last six victories have been by decision. He hasn’t scored a victory by TKO since Nov. 14, 2009, against Miguel Cotto.
Yet, the Pacquiao-by-decision prop is being offered at an intriguing price of 8-to-5 at The Wynn. If the fight goes the distance and Pacquiao wins the decision, you would collect $160 on a $100 bet.
A more conservative approach is laying -160 on OVER 9.5 rounds. You collect on this wager if the fight lasts beyond the 1:30 mark of the ninth round, no matter who wins.
Says The Linemakers Brian Blessing, “I think Pacquiao is going to win by decision.”