PGA Championship Preview
By Dan Daly
VegasInsider.com
Dear PGA Championship, good luck trying to live up to the British Open. Quite frankly if it’s half as good as the British Open I will consider that a moral victory next weekend. The PGA Championship has always been the red-headed step child of the four majors. The British has the history, the US Open is our National Championship (although the USGA is doing their best to ruin that tournament), The Masters is…well, the Masters and the poor PGA just always seems to be an afterthought. With that said, the PGA Championship year in and year out seems to almost always deliver one of the most exciting Majors of the year.
Since 1970 the PGA Tour has only had two seasons where all four majors were won by first time major winners. We are three for three in 2016 with Willett, DJ and Stenson. Will we see a fourth first time winner at The PGA Championship at Baltusrol?
I figured I would change it up this week and just get the winner out of the way early.
Jordan Spieth (10/1): I struggled more with this pick than I have with any other in recent memory. I haven’t gone 0-4 in picking a Major winner in 5 years and after missing on the first three majors of the year with both my favorite and dark horse picks I need a solid finish. So it scares me a little, ok, a lot, going with a guy that has “struggled” over the past 6 weeks by his standards. Maybe I let emotions win out, but I think Spieth is due a break out week and this course sets up well for him. The winning score should be in the single digits under par, short game will be at a premium and almost no one is talking about him winning this week for the first time in a long time. He seems to play his best golf with a chip on his shoulder and I think he will use that this week, along with his short game, to win the PGA Championship. He gave away the first major of the year and I think he gets a little bit of redemption with a win this week at Baltusrol.
My dark horse pick this week, and I can’t even believe my computer will allow me type this, but…
Patrick Reed (40/1): Does Patrick Reed still wear a choker necklace? Yes. Is Patrick Reed still a huge douchebag? Yes. Is Patrick Reed still tied with me at zero Top 10’s in a major? Yes. Has Patrick Reed won anything at all in the last 18 months? No. Do I like Patrick Reed as person? Not even a little. But that could all change this week with a small bet on a nice 40/1 return. So what the hell am I thinking? Well, he's coming off a career-best T-12 in a major at the British Open and did so on the much harder side of the draw. Despite never finishing in the top 10 in a major…ever, he does have nine top-10s on the PGA Tour this season (behind only DJ). And on a golf course that is going to require a lot of emphasis on the short game, Reed is third in strokes gained around the green and 7th in total scrambling on the PGA Tour this season. That and if the first time winner trend continues I’m pretty sure Reed is more likely than someone like Sergio. If he doesn’t win, I do think he contends this week and at least gets his first top 10 in a major at worst.
If you want a REALLY dark horse this week…
J.B. Holmes (80/1): The guy did just win the second flight at the Open Championship two weeks ago. Sure he was 175 shots behind second place but third in a major is still third in a major. Plus he has another Top 5 this year in a major at Augusta. I don’t envision him winning but if you are the guy that likes the really long odds he would be my pick. I do think he is a good Top 10 play this week with some pretty decent odds.
As for everyone else…
John Daly (1000/1): The 1991 PGA Championship was on The Golf Channel last week and no matter how many times I watch it, it never gets old. Just wanted to point that out. His mustache during that tournament is the thing of legends.
Bubba Watson (30/1): If Bubba Watson ever wins a major outside of Augusta it will be a miracle.
Rickie Fowler (30/1): Remember when everyone tried to lump Rickie Fowler into the “big 3” earlier this year? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Sergio Garcia (30/1): Since a 54th-place finish at the Players in mid-May, Sergio has finished first (Nelson), fifth (US Open), fifth (BMW International Open) and fifth again (British Open). In fact, Sergio is the only player to post top-five’s at both the U.S. and British Opens. In other words Sergio is playing some of the best golf of his career over the past few months. And with DJ finally breaking through at the US Open, Stenson finally broke through at the British Open, could it be Sergio’s time at the PGA Championship? Just kidding, it’s Sergio and it’s a major. But I have no doubt he will be a solid Top 10 this week.
Adam Scott (28/1): Since his back-to-back wins in March at PGA National and Doral the guy has pretty much disappeared off the face of the Earth. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Plus, his T-40 here in 2005 doesn’t really do much for me either.
Justin Rose (28/1): He actually has a good recent past in the PGA with a fourth last year and T-3 in 2012 but the back is still too much of a red flag for my taste. His T-22 at the British Open was a step in the right direction, but I don’t see that big of an improvement in less than two weeks.
Phil Mickelson (20/1): The PGA Championship winner here in 2005 just came off the best major championship of his life…and lost. Mickelson has a history of letdowns following tough losses in major championships. And this one is the quickest turnaround of them all. He is clearly in good form and returning to a track he won a Major Championship on but I just think the quick turnaround following the loss he endured at Royal Troon will be too much for him to overcome. He also hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since his British Open win three years ago last week.
Henrik Stenson (16/1): Stenson is so hot right now he could take a crap, wrap it in tinfoil, put a couple fish hooks on it and sell it to Queen Elizabeth as earrings. (If you don’t get that I can’t help you.) Not only is he coming off arguably the greatest round and tournament in PGA Tour history he also happens to have four top-six finishes in his past six PGA Championship starts (granted he didn’t play in 2011 and 2012). Like Mickelson, my only concern is the very probable golf hangover he might be suffering from with the start of the PGA so close to the end of the British. I just have to wonder how much he will be drained both physically and emotionally from that win.
Jason Day (8/1): To say Jason Day has hit a cold streak because he hasn’t won in four whole starts would sound really stupid. But Jason Day has gone on a cold streak. Not because he hasn’t won, but quite frankly since the final round of the WGC event in Akron he just hasn’t been playing that well. That and defending at a Major in general is just hard.
Rory McIlroy (8/1): No major Championship has treated Rory better than the PGA Championship. He has two wins (2012, 2014), four Top-5 finishes and five Top-10's in seven appearances. In other words, the guy really likes the PGA Championship no matter where it’s held. Other than a missed cut at the U.S. Open, McIlroy has had a very solid 2016 as well, including a T-5 at the British Open. But the fact remains, Rory still hasn't won a PGA Tour event in more than 14 months. Rory has become king of the back door Top 10 and I think he keeps both that trend and his winless streak on the PGA Tour alive this week.
Dustin Johnson (8/1): Picking against DJ these days is almost like playing Russian roulette with your money. The guy has finished outside the Top 14 just once in the last five months, including wins at the US Open and the WGC. He is clearly the hottest player on the planet right now and has a solid PGA Championship record to boot with four top-10s in six PGA Championship starts. In other words, the guy will be in the mix come Sunday afternoon. But there is one thing that scares me with DJ this week. If scrambling is in fact going to be a key to winning at Baltusrol like it was in 2005, it is the one and only weakness in an otherwise impeccable arsenal for DJ. He is 104th in strokes gained around the green…68th in total scrambling… and 130th in scrambling from the rough. His short game and the fact that this will be his 7th start in nine weeks will be the small difference between DJ winning and another solid top 10 this week.
With that said I asked my three year old daughter who was going to win the PGA Championship and without hesitation she said…Dustin Johnson…so there’s that.
Golfers to Bet - PGA Championship
By Sportsbook.ag
The world’s best golfers will be teeing off in the PGA Championship in New Jersey on Thursday. This is the final major of the year, so everybody is going to be looking to bring it this weekend. This field is set to include guys like Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Henrik Stenson and all of the other top-10 golfers in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR). Phil Mickelson will also be on the course this weekend and he won this event the last time Springfield hosted the tournament. That was back in 2005 and Mickelson shot a four-under to defeat Thomas Bjorn and Steve Elkington by one stroke apiece. The winner of the last four of these tournaments has, however, shot at least a 10-under. With Tiger Woods not playing on Thursday, Rory McIlroy’s two PGA Championship victories are the most of any player in the field. With that out of the way, let’s now take a look at some of the best plays to make for the final major of the year:
Dustin Johnson (15-to-2) - Johnson is currently enjoying the best season of his career and he has showed no signs of slowing down. Since Feb. 18, Johnson has finished inside the top-10 in 10 of the 13 tournaments he has played in. That span includes a victory at the U.S. Open and a tie for fourth at The Masters. Johnson also happens to have finished tied for second at last week’s RBC Canadian Open. While other top golfers took that week off, Johnson stayed in rhythm and continued to make putts. That has been his weakness in the past, but he has shown some nice touch on the greens this year. If he can continue to own the short game then he should be able to win this thing on Sunday. Either way he’s a very likely pick to be in contention and is worth putting a few units on at 15-to-2.
Phil Mickelson (18-to-1) - As previously mentioned, Mickelson won the PGA Championship the last time Baltusrol Golf Club hosted the tournament. While that was back in 2005, Mickelson should still be feeling confident as he takes the course on Thursday. Not only has Mickelson won on this course, but he is also coming into this tournament in tremendous form. He was on fire at The Open Championship two weeks ago, shooting a 17-under and ultimately coming in second place. Had it not been for Henrik Stenson playing some flawless golf, Mickelson would have won yet another major. Mickelson may not have finished in first, but he surely showed that he has what it takes to keep winning at this level. He’s worth a few units at 18-to-1, as he should be able to carry over his play into this one.
Bubba Watson (35-to-1) - Bubba Watson has not performed well at majors this year, but he is still a very talented golfer and is more than capable of putting it together this weekend. The year hasn’t been all bad for Watson, as he actually has two victories on the season. Watson won the World Challenge back on Dec. 3 and he also won the Northern Trust Open on Feb. 18. One thing that Watson will need to get working this weekend is his iron play. Watson is good once he gets on the green, but he must find a way to give himself a chance to putt for some birdies this weekend. Still, he’s an incredible value at 35-to-1 and is worth putting a unit or two on due to his impressive resume.
Jhonattan Vegas (150-to-1) - When looking for a dark horse that could pay off huge this weekend, one way to go is putting a unit or half-unit on Vegas. Vegas has not yet played in a major this season, but he is coming into this tournament in a bit of a groove. He won last week’s RBC Canadian Open and he also happened to have played well the week before, finishing tied for fourth with a 15-under at the Barbasol Championship. It’s obviously not a certainty that he’ll be around on Sunday, but Vegas is one of the hotter golfers on the TOUR and is a worth a shot coming into this one.
PGA Championship Preview
By Matt Fargo
Playbook.com
The 98th edition of the PGA Championship starts Thursday, culminating another busy and exciting season of golf Majors. The Lower Course at Baltusrol Golf Club in Springfield, New Jersey will be the host for the second time with the first coming in 2005, won by Phil Mickelson in wire-to-wire fashion. His championship was highlighted by a Friday 65 and he was able to hold off Thomas Bjorn and Steve Elkington by a shot in a Monday finish thanks to a memorable up and down on No. 18.
Baltursol is a par 70 that stretches to 7,428 yards. It was founded in 1895 on land once owned by Baltus Roll, hence the name, but the original design is a distant memory as A.W. Tillinghast came in to redo the course in 1922. In addition to this being the second PGA Championship, Baltusrol has also hosted the U.S. Open four times as well as two U.S. Amateurs and a U.S. Women’s Open. The course is unique as the only two par fives happen to be on No. 17 and No. 18.
Mickelson won with a -4 back in 2005 so there is little room for error here. With a 138 bunkers on the property, trouble awaits every turn. Players will likely be laying up more often than they are used to and while driving the ball well is always a top priority, solid long iron play will be of the utmost importance since nine of the 12 par fours are 440 yards or longer with two of those checking in over 500 yards. Course management and patience need to be on display this week.
While the thought is that the Majors are dominated by the world's best players, that has hardly been the case. Of the last 31 Majors, there have been 23 different winners with Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson, Martin Kaymer, Bubba Watson and Jordan Spieth being the only two-time or more Major winners over that stretch. We have seen first time Major winners to start 2016 with Danny Willett winning the Masters, Dustin Johnson winning the U.S. Open and Henrik Stenson winning the Open Championship.
Since 1993, there have been 18 different winners of the PGA Championship with only Tiger Woods (4), Vijay Singh (2) and Rory McIlroy (2) being repeat winners which adds even more complication to the scenario. This tournament is known for its surprising winners even though there have been some big names at the top in recent years. It is interesting to note that the last 12 winners of the PGA Championship have had a top 25 finish in their last start so it has been a "who's hot" event.
There are some significant storylines this week. Will 2016 end with a first time Major winner in all four Majors? Can Jordan Spieth claim his first Major of the season after a pair of wins, a solo second and a T4 last year? Will Phil Mickelson keep up his solid recent play and capture his second PGA Championship at Baltursol? Can Dustin Johnson extend his streak of six straight top tens including two wins by capturing his second Major and locking up Player of the Year honors?
Dustin Johnson (+705) is the slight favorite this week followed by Rory McIlroy (+805) and defending PGA Champion Jason Day (+895). Jordan Spieth (+1,320) is a distant fourth and finally seems to have some value on his side. Open Champion Henrik Stenson (+1,385), Open Championship runner-up Phil Mickelson (+1,905) and Sergio Garcia (+2,335) round out the players at less than +2,500. Because of the heavy favorites at the top, there is a ton of value on players further down the list.