PGA: Genesis Open - Best Bets

PGA Tour Betting Preview
Genesis Open
Riviera Country Club – 7,322 yards – Par 71

After two straight weeks of being close with at least one of my picks – Phil Mickelson last week, and Rickie Fowler two weeks ago – come up short because of one sub-par, average day on the weekend, I'm hoping to get over the hump this week as the PGA Tour makes its final stop in California for the early season West Coast swing.

This week it's the Genesis Open (aka the Northern Trust Open or L.A Open) at the famed Riviera Country Club, a place where Tiger played in his first tournament against pros back when he was 16. Woods has come a long way since missing the cut by six shots back in 1992, and Tiger returns to play in this event for the 1st time since 2006.

Tiger Woods has never won this event in his 10 previous tries, the most he's ever teed it up at a single tournament without winning it at least once. With this being just his second main event of 2018, chances are this won't be the year he breaks that streak and at 20/1 odds there is just no value in even considering him.

Advertisement
The course is a lot longer then the last time he played it in 2006, and a prestigious, historic event like this always brings a strong field with it. This week it's no different as many of the big names are in Los Angeles for the event, and defending champion Dustin Johnson – who cruised to a five-shot victory last year even with an even-par round on Sunday – comes in as the only one below the +1000 threshold at +500. Dj not only won this event last year, but he finished runner up in both 2015 and 2014.

Riviera is a long course that favors guys with length and shot-making ability, particularly guys that can get dialled in from 170+ yards out with their irons. With long hitters litter the past-champions list and another notable factor when looking through that history is the success lefties have had here. Riviera is a course that predominantly favors playing a draw for left-handers, and drawing the ball is always going to help with distance and shortening the course. But with lefties Mike Weir, Phil Mickelson (the last to win in consecutive years) and Bubba Watson all winning this tournament two times since 2003, southpaws make be guys you don't really want to sleep on.

Finally, there are a couple other interesting trends regarding this tournament, with the first being that playoffs are rather common and typically the margin of victory is very slim. Since the 2001 event, we've had seven champions be crowned on extra holes, and aside from DJ's 5-stroke victory a year ago, the margin of victory during that span was never bigger than two strokes. Keep that in mind if you are inclined to do some weekend in-play wagering with a few guys in contention.

Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, each of the last three winners of this event (James Hahn in 2015, Bubba in 2016, and DJ last year) all finished in the Top 30 of this tournament the year prior, with Bubba and DJ coming Top 15 or better. That suggests to me that recent course history is rather relevant here, and when there is a more famous course (Augusta National) that carries very similar characteristics to Riviera in terms of favoring lefties, needing to cut the ball as a righty and similar looking leaderboards, looking at guys who've recently done well at the Masters isn't a bad option either.

Side note: Keep this eventual leaderboard in mind for the 2018 Masters when it arrives in about a month

Odds per Sportsbetting.ag

Golfers to Watch

Thomas Pieters (40/1) – This being Pieters first event on US soil in awhile is a minor concern, but he's got all the prerequisites to do very well this week. Pieters is very long off the tee (and in general), has been playing well of late with a T32 and T5 in his last two starts, and fits both profiles of being in the Top 30 here a year ago as well as having a run at the Green Jacket in 2017. Pieters rocketed up the leaderboard with a 63 on Sunday at this tournament a year ago to finish T2, and if he can find some more consistency in the earlier rounds, there is no reason to think he can't be in contention come Sunday. His T4 at Augusta last year proved to him that he can hang with the big boys, and a win this week might might be the catalyst to a spectacular 2018 on American soil.

Charley Hoffman (50/1) – Hoffman isn't in the best form after withdrawing in Round 3 a week ago with back issues, but they can't seem to be that major if he's willing to tee it up this week. Everyone remembers Hoffman blazing out of the gates at Augusta last year before fading away on the weekend, and given he finished T4 at the Genesis last year, that hot start at the Masters shouldn't have been that surprising. Hoffman doesn't have the length that some of the other guys in this field do, but if his back can hold up and some adrenaline can kick in over the weekend should he be in contention, the 50-1 payout will be rewarding.

Adam Scott (60/1) – Scott has a Green Jacket in his closet already, and did finish T9 as last year's opening Major as well. Scott's success at Augusta can somewhat be credited to his success here at Riviera as he's a former winner of this event too (2005), and has a pair of runner up finishes to go along with that title. Scott is coming off a MC last week as a brutal opening round 77 did him in, but being back at a place of past success for him should bring more confidence to his game, and with a T11 at this tournament a year ago and his length off the tee and beyond, like Pieters, Scott has all the tools to come home a champion on Sunday night.

Genesis Open Odds - per Sportsbetting.ag
Dustin Johnson 5/1
Rory McIlroy 12/1
Jordan Spieth 12/1
Justin Thomas 16/1
Tiger Woods 20/1
Phil Mickelson 22/1
Paul Casey 22/1
Tommy Fleetwood 25/1
Chez Reavie 33/1
Marc Leishman 33/1
Ollie Schniederjans 40/1
Thomas Pieters 40/1
Alex Noren 40/1
Branden Grace 40/1
Kevin Chappell 40/1
Daniel Berger 40/1
Charles Howell III 40/1
Tony Finau 40/1
Patrick Cantlay 50/1
Pat Perez 50/1
Bubba Watson 50/1
Brendan Steele 50/1
Matt Kuchar 50/1
Xander Schauffele 50/1
Charley Hoffman 50/1
Adam Scott 66/1
Charl Schwartzel 66/1
Rafael Cabrera Bello 66/1
Keegan Bradley 66/1
James Hahn 66/1
Kevin Streelman 66/1
Beau Hossler 80/1
J B Holmes 80/1
Jimmy Walker 80/1
Haotong Li 80/1
Francesco Molinari 80/1
Adam Hadwin 80/1
Jason Kokrak 80/1
Kevin Na 80/1
Jhonattan Vegas 100/1