PGA Golf: Valspar - Best Bets

PGA Tour Betting Preview
Valspar Championship
Innisbrook Resort – Copperhead Course – Par 71 – 7,340 yards

After an exciting week down in Mexico for the WGC event last week that saw Phil Mickelson finally get back into the winner's circle after four years, the PGA Tour is back in Florida this week for the Valspar Championship.

This is a tournament that typically doesn't have the greatest field with Bay Hill, the WGC-Match Play, and the Masters all on the horizon, but that's not exactly the case this year as big names like Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Sergio Garcia, Justin Rose, and Tiger Woods are all in the field.

You'll also find plenty of other Europeans/overseas players in the mix as some have stayed in the area after the WGC and others are just trying to get reacquainted with North American golf with the year's first major looming.

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You won't see nearly as many birdies on this track as we did a week ago in Mexico as the Copperhead Course routinely plays as one of the harder non-major venues on Tour each season.

It's a long course that emphasizes scoring on Par 3's (five of them all 195 yards or longer) and Par 5's (four of them that are where guys get their strokes back) while trying to avoid trouble with tight fairways and some smaller target greens.

The winning score is typically going to be in that -8 to -12 range, so guys that can grind out par saves and avoid those crooked numbers should be in contention come Sunday.

Finally, the international/European influx of players in this field we typically see in this tournament because of the Master prep it can offer has panned out for many of those non-US players in recent history. Canadian Adam Hadwin (+3300) is the defending champion, and four of the last six winners of this event come from somewhere other than the US.

But Americans have finished runner-up here seven straight years so it's not like they are bad plays either. Obviously in a relatively shallow field the big names at the top are going to garner plenty of attention, but I'd harbour a guess that none of them are looking to peak this week with a win with that trip to Augusta coming in a few weeks.

If you are looking for some guys deeper down the board (like me) to consider I've got a few of them in this week's list of guys to watch.

Odds per -Sportsbetting.ag

Golfers to Watch

Tony Finau (25/1) – Finau is a guy that gets tagged with the “when we he breakout and win a big event” moniker every year and until he does that label won't change. He's a long hitter that can eat up scoring on Par 5's and does have finishes of T6, T2, and T27 (last week in Mexico) in three of his last four events. Avoiding the disastrous blowup hole tends to be Finau's issue more often than not, but he also has a 5th place finish here a year ago where he was able to put together four solid rounds.

If Finau can finally put it all together for four rounds this week, he could easily shed that moniker and beat some of the bigger names in the field. His length and ball striking ability give him an advantage over a large part of the field this week and although the value isn't entirely there at +2500, this guy will break out eventually and he's definitely got the game to do it at Copperhead.

Louis Oosthuizen (40/1) – Oosthuizen is another guy where ball-striking tends to be an advantage, although he did have some adventures with it over the weekend in Mexico last week. But his first round 64 (-7) showed everyone just how good he can be when he puts it all together in a single round.

The problem with backing Louie is always going to be motivation (in non big events) and avoiding the blowout holes/rounds. He's a bit similar to Finau in that way, as a third round 76 last week in Mexico took him out of contention in a hurry and a round like that at the Valspar will have him looking up at too many people to pass in the leaderboard. He does have a T7 here from 2016 where he shot 72 on Day one followed by three identical 70 scores, a promising trend to say the least, but if Oosthuizen is motivated this week, he's got all the talent in the world to top a field like this and get his first win on North American soil.

Chez Reavie (50/1) – It's been a month since Chez Reavie had back-to-back 2nd place finishes at the Phoenix Open and Pebble Beach, and his T73 at the Genesis and T52 in Mexico last week have made him a bit of a forgotten entity this week. But he has finished T22 and T27 here the last two years and like the other two mentioned earlier, avoiding those key blowup holes will be the heavily factored into how much success Reavie has this week.

Reavie could be a better scorer on Par 5's, but he ranks 14th on Tour in Par 3 scoring average (2.98) and that could end up helping him shoot up the leaderboard this week. It's much easier to put up red numbers on Par 5's for anyone on Tour, but if Reavie can accomplish that on the tough Par 3's this course has (or at least not hurt himself), he could follow in Mickelson's footsteps and snap a very long winless drought on Tour (his one and only win came in 2008).

Valspar Championship Odds - per Sportsbetting.ag
Jordan Spieth 17/2
Rory McIlroy 14/1
Sergio Garcia 16/1
Justin Rose 16/1
Henrik Stenson 20/1
Tiger Woods 20/1
Paul Casey 22/1
Tony Finau 25/1
Adam Hadwin 33/1
Gary Woodland 33/1
Kevin Na 40/1
Adam Scott 40/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 40/1
Ryan Moore 40/1
Webb Simpson 40/1
Byeong-Hun An 40/1
Louis Oosthuizen 40/1
Zach Johnson 40/1
Jason Dufner 40/1
Chez Reavie 50/1
Steve Stricker 50/1
Patrick Reed 50/1
Luke List 50/1
Branden Grace 50/1
Cameron Smith 50/1
Brandt Snedeker 50/1
Kevin Streelman 50/1
Matt Kuchar 50/1
Bill Haas 66/1
Charl Schwartzel 66/1
Martin Laird 66/1
Jason Kokrak 66/1
Ollie Schniederjans 66/1
Charles Howell III 66/1
Ross Fisher 66/1
Russell Knox 66/1
Scott Stallings 80/1
Charley Hoffman 80/1
Chesson Hadley 80/1
Harris English 100/1