PGA Golf: WGC Dell - Best Bets

PGA Tour Betting Preview
WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
Austin Country Club – Par 71 – 7,108 yards

The PGA Tour has looked to capitalize on all the madness March can bring to the sports world as they moved this tournament to March a few years back and aren't likely to look back. Yet, the problem with this tournament being in late March is the fact that while it is the top 64 players in the world (or thereabouts), it's way to close to the Masters and motivation for some of the top guys becomes a really big issue. If you were a top golfer in the world would you rather peak at this event and win or peak a few weeks later and win a green jacket? Just five of the top 16 seeds in each four-golfer group moved on through the group stage last year so don't get hung up on all the big names. Chances are many of those guys would prefer to stand in the winner's circle a few weeks from now.

Dustin Johnson (+800) is the defending champion as he was the #1 overall seed a year ago and sits in that same spot this year. There have been multiple winners of this event, but nobody has ever successfully defended their title with the exception of Tiger Woods back in 2003 and 2004. With DJ not even playing in the Masters last year, you've got to figure his sets are sight on Augusta and he's one of the top favorites I'm looking to avoid here.

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Rory McIlroy (+750) is the overall favorite to win this event after winning last week at Bay Hill, but like DJ, he's one I'm looking to avoid completely this week. Rory already has this trophy in his trophy case as the 2015 champion, and with the Masters the last major he needs for a career Grand Slam, I'd guess Rory has little interest in grinding out this event the entire way again. Keeping his skills sharp and then maybe getting some rest and relaxation time in before heading to Augusta early is likely on his itinerary (as it may be with many other top guys) for this week.

Match play is a different animal on Tour though and there is something to be said about guys that thrive in this style of play. Patrick Reed (+2500) comes to mind given his success in Ryder Cups and President's Cups, and Reed's current form is definitely on the sharper side of things. Paul Casey (+2000) who has some great current form in his bag at the moment and with two runner-up finishes at this event in the past he's not a guy I'd sleep on. But those two are still near the top of the list of guys who may be more focused on Augusta – claiming their first career Major for both of them in this case - and I'm not quite sure there is enough value on either guy at these current prices.

Finally, like any bracket style of tournament, if you are going to wager on multiple guys to win it all this week, you'll want to make sure their path to go deep is clear of one another for as long as possible. You can check out the entire bracket for the tournament here, but let's get to the one guy from each “region” who I'll be backing.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Golfers to Watch

Matt Kuchar (+6600) – Kuchar has won this event before and would fit the bill of someone who may be more focused on the upcoming Masters, but this guy is just too solid in this type of format to not consider at this price. Kuchar has a career record of 21-8-2 SU in this event and has a very winnable group with Ross Fisher, Yuta Ikeda and Zach Johnson matching up with him in the round robin stage. From there it looks like it would be a battle with DJ on paper (but I've already shared my thoughts on fading DJ) and it's not like Kuchar can't gain a ton of confidence if he goes through the World #1. This is the guy that many are sleeping on in this “region” with DJ and Jason Day involved, but the crafty vet Kuchar could easily make another deep run through this event.

Alex Noren (+3300) – Noren would meet Kuchar in the Final Four should they both get that far and he is another guy who's experience and guile should serve him well in this event. Noren has got a 4-3 SU record in this event specifically, but being on the Euro Tour for so long and playing in their match play events means he's got plenty of positive experience in this format. In those Euro Tour match play events, Noren is 7-2 SU and while that is against lesser competition in theory, that winning mentality is still honed and built.

In a region where all the talk will be about Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth being in the same group and Hideki Matsuyama as the top seed, I'm looking for Noren to make a run here.

Dylan Frittelli (+10000) – Frittelli is one of the longest shots on the board and being his first WGC Match Play event isn't exactly ideal. But this is a guy who finished 11th at the Honda Classic about a month ago and followed that up with a T55 after a disastrous final round at the WGC in Mexico. He's got all the talent in the world to compete with these guys and is definitely worth a flyer when you look at his positioning in the bracket.

Frittelli is grouped with Sergio Garcia – who just had his first child and has a Masters dinner menu to prepare, Xander Schauffele – the well known name in North America, and Shubhankar Sharma who became immensely popular and well-known after leading for three rounds in that WGC Mexico event. That's a group Fritelli is not going to be picked by anyone to get through.

From there, it's guys like Paul Casey (who may be more focused on the Masters) and Justin Thomas (1-5 SU record in this event) who are the bigger names in the region and I would not be shocked to see them fall earlier. I'm not entirely convinced Frittelli can go the entire distance, but if he gets through his region and into the final four, having a +10000 ticket in your pocket gives you some nice hedging opportunities.

Phil Mickelson (+2200) – This final “region” would be labelled the Group of Death in any other sport at it's got the likes of Rory, Jon Rahm, Bubba Watson, Marc Leishman, and Phil Mickelson just to name a few. But of all those guys, it's actually Mickelson who might have the most motivation to win this event, and coming off a win a few weeks back, his game is definitely where it needs to be here.

Mickelson has a career 22-13 SU record at this tournament, but he's never won the tournament or even beein in the final. There is a lot of what-ifs for Phil at this event and with a few green jackets already in his closet, Masters focus won't take away part of his mind here. In fact, this is a tournament Phil may actually treat like a Major this week and if he can get out of his group I like his chances.

Odds to win WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play - per Sportsbetting.ag
Rory McIlroy +750
Dustin Johnson +800
Justin Thomas +1100
Jason Day +1400
Jon Rahm +1200
Jordan Spieth +1600
Paul Casey +2000
Sergio Garcia +2500
Phil Mickelson +2200
Patrick Reed +2500
Tommy Fleetwood +3300
Hideki Matsuyama +3300
Alexander Noren +3300
Tyrrell Hatton +3300
Bubba Watson +4000
Marc Leishman +5000
Branden Grace +5000
Xander Schauffele +6600
Thomas Pieters +5000
Patrick Cantlay +5000
Rafael Cabrera Bello +5000
Gary Woodland +5000
Louis Oosthuizen +5000
Tony Finau +5000
Matt Kuchar +6600
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +6600
Kevin Chappell +6600
Brian Harman +6600
Daniel Berger +6600
Luke List +6600
Pat Perez +6600
Zach Johnson +6600
Adam Hadwin +6600
Charley Hoffman +6600
Webb Simpson +6600
Brendan Steele +8000
Ross Fisher +8000
Cameron Smith +8000
Francesco Molinari +8000
Kevin Kisner +8000
Kevin Na +8000
Kyle Stanley +8000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +8000
Shubhankar Sharma +8000
Keegan Bradley +10000
Patton Kizzire +10000
Haotong Li +10000
Charl Schwartzel +10000
Dylan Frittelli +10000
Ian Poulter +10000