PGA Golf Workday Charity Open

By Matt Blunt

Tour: PGA
Date: Thursday, July, 9 2020 to Sunday, July 12, 2020
Venue: Muirfield Village Golf Club
Location: Dublin, Ohio
Par-Yardage: 72, 7,392 yards
TV: Golf Channel, CBS

Timing is everything in life, and after Bryson Dechambeau won in Detroit last week, it's clear my timing is a little early right now. Dechambeau's win marked the second straight week where one of my selections went on to win the week after being featured in this piece, a pick made for the Travellers that Dustin Johnson ultimately won. And it was DJ who was one of the selections for the RBC Heritage the week prior to the Travellers.

So after last week's selections ended up being about as big as a whiff as their gets in golf betting, those of you riding with Scottie Scheffler (+7500) this week should hope for that pattern to continue. He's the only name from last week's piece in the field for the Workday Charity Open, the first of two consecutive weeks at Muirfield Village for the PGA Tour.
Back-to-Back in Ohio

Muirfield Village is known as the “Course that Jack (Nicklaus) Built,” and it's a course where accuracy in the long game is always going to be preferred.

Two consecutive weeks at Muirfield Village is going to be a unique part of this season - most notably makes my job previewing the course much easier next week – but even with an “softer” setup expected this week for the Workday Charity Open as opposed to next week's annual stop for the Memorial Tournament, the guys that separate themselves from the pack are the ones who are among the most accurate off the tee and with their second shots.

Being in the rough here is not a place anyone wants to be, and even with a softer course setup expected, the rough should still be quite nasty if that's what the course staff is hoping to have for next week. Further evidence that finding safety off the tee is critical, especially with plenty of water lurking around as well.

The four Par 5's are ones the leaders will be making birdies or better on the majority of the time, but it will be those birdies and par saves on the tricky Par 4's out there that will be a separating factor as well. Navigate all that and guys will be just fine. Easy, right?

But Jack wouldn't want one of his crown jewel courses any other way.
Workday Charity Open
Betting Odds

Justin Thomas: +1100
Patrick Cantlay: +1300
Jon Rahm: +1300
Brooks Koepka: +1700
Hideki Matsuyama: +1700
Xander Schauffele: +1700
Viktor Hovland: +2600
Justin Rose: +2600
Rickie Fowler: +2800
Patrick Reed: +3000
More Golfers
(Odds Subject to Change)

It might not be the “Memorial Tournament,” but the benefit of being a new event at an old venue is that there is plenty of course history to work with for those that wish to do so. The field is much deeper at the top than it was last week, and it's Justin Thomas (+1100) who leads the way. Thomas has three missed cuts at the Memorial in the last five years, but mixed in there are 4th and 8th finishes respectively in 2017 and 2018. Thomas is coming off a missed cut in his last start two weeks ago as well, so there are some concerns for both the course and current form for those that are looking his way.

Behind Thomas we get Patrick Cantlay (+1300), Jon Rahm (+1300), Brooks Koepka (+1500), Hideki Matsuyama (+1700) and Xander Schauffele (+1700) all under that 20/1 threshold for favorites. Of those names, only Koepka and Rahm are without Top 20 finishes at the Memorial in their careers, but there have also been only three combined starts for the two of them.

Hard to really go wrong with any of those names though, and one of them starts off this week's selections. Let's just hope one of them comes through this week and not next week at Muirfield Village.
Golfers to Watch - Muirfield Village
Top Picks and Predictions
Contender to Back
Workday Charity Open
Patrick Cantlay +1300

Never a big fan of taking guys to win at the same event in consecutive years, but technically this isn't the same event as Cantlay won a year ago. Semantics aside, Muirfield Village is a place Cantlay's always loved to play at since finding his way to full-time Tour status, as since 2017 he's had finishes of 35th, 4th, and 1st at the Memorial.

Accurate ball-striking courses are always going to be right in Cantlay's wheelhouse, as ball-striking is exactly what he's known for. He's gained almost a full stroke on the field on average every round this year, ranking 5th on Tour in SG: Approach at +0.926, and he's sitting in the Top 10 in SG: Tee-to-Green and Total as well, so it's no wonder he's found success at Muirfield Village in the past.

It's always going to be about how well the short game is clicking for Cantlay to really determine how legitimate his chances are on a weekend, but at a place you know he loves to be at, with a more gentle setup then he's found success at before, Cantlay should find his way into the mix on Sunday. He's really the only name inside that group at +2000 or less that I want any piece of.
Mid-Range Value
Workday Charity Open
Bubba Watson +5000

There are some better numbers out there on Bubba this week, as shopping around in golf futures should become a weekly practice for everyone. But even at this price offered at DK, Bubba is worth a look, as long as recent form isn't the be all, end all for your handicapping process.

Watson's coming off two missed cuts the past two weeks, after placing 52nd and 7th in the two events that began the season restart. Two straight MC's will lead to higher prices in the marketplace in general because recent form has become such a talking point, and that feels like a little of what we've got here with Watson.

“Jack's Course” has always treated Watson quite well in his trips here, as Bubba's got two Top-6 finishes here in five starts at the Memorial over the past seven years. Watson has made the cut in all five of those starts, and at a venue where shot-making is of critical performance, Watson's a guy you can never count out in that regard.

Poor putting has been Bubba's biggest weakness during these two MC's he's recently had, and if you go through his numbers for the past few seasons, it's rare he continues to lose strokes to the field on the greens for longer than a couple of weeks. If he finds that approach game early on in the week, it may only be a matter of time before Bubba's putter heats up again.
Long Shot Pick
Workday Charity Open
Russell Knox +40000

Recent form is not something you'll want to look at with Knox's history since the season restart, as it's been four straight missed cuts for the Scotsman, and he's lost strokes to the field in the approach game for three straight weeks. Not exactly the best profile for a guy to back at Muirfield Village, but for a guy like Knox's who's desperately looking to get a tournament check again, a return to Muirfield Village on a softer setup may be exactly what he needs to find his game.

Knox has enjoyed coming here over the year's and has made it a tournament on his schedule in each of the past seven years. It was that first entry seven years ago that yielded his only missed cut at the event, with the other five starts being bookended by Top 30 finishes in 2015 (18th) and 2019 (27th).

With the current form Knox has shown, chances are winning outright this week is a big ask, but he's definitely someone to consider for all the placement props and may even pop up again in the props piece later in the week.
72 Hole Matchup to Take
Workday Charity Open
Patrick Cantlay (+110) over Justin Thomas (-137)

This is not a play that's as strongly against Thomas as I do prefer matchups plays to be based upon, but with the course history being much more steady for Cantlay, the plus-money odds are too tempting to not grab a piece of in this head-to-head showdown.

Thomas could end up cruising to a victory in this matchup, but his game after the tee shot was quite bad at the Travelers in his last start, and even if it was just fatigue that a week off would definitely help with, I still can't turn down this price.

Thomas has had his high finishes here, but there are too many missed cuts at this track in the past relative to Cantlay's none that is hard to overlook. I view this head-to-head battle as one that's a little tighter to a coinflip than this line currently sits at, so taking the underdog price on what is essentially backing a a near co-favorite to beat the favorite is a relative no-brainer, win or lose.
How to Bet on Golf

Golf betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of the reason behind that increased popularity.

Sportsbooks ensure that there are no shortage of wagering options on golf tournaments every week, and it isn't all about picking the winner. Grabbing the outright winner of a golf tournament is the best way to get that 'big score' but it's also the hardest wager to cash. After all, a typical professional golf tournament has a field of 140+ different players to consider.