Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 6/1/20
By Matt Blunt
PGA Tour Betting Resources
2020 RBC Heritage
Tour: PGA
Date: Thursday, June 18, 2020 to Sunday, June 21, 2020
Venue: Harbour Town Golf Links
Location: Hilton Head, South Carolina
Par-Yardage: 71; 7,100yards
TV: Golf Channel, CBS
The PGA Tour's return to action was a wildly entertaining one from start to finish, but a loaded leaderboard ended up getting bested by Daniel Berger, a guy who we were lucky enough to be on. It's great to connect on any winner in golf, but hitting on one this early after the layoff gives your bankroll a nice cushion for the rest of what could be a chaotic year.
I did completely whiff on the prop plays which will hopefully see some redemption later in the week, but for now it's on to the RBC Heritage and hopefully continuing to string together positive weeks. It's always tough backing up a winner with another strong week in golf betting, but it is always worth a try.
Harbour Town is an event that can end up playing trickier then the scorecard looks if the wind makes its presence felt at some point during the event. However, it's still predominantly an accuracy course where the putter needs to get hot, and guys better be prepared to feel the sweat late on Sunday. Only one of the previous seven winners here have won by more then a single stroke, and five of the past 10 winners have been crowned in a playoff. The last two have cashed at better then 150-1 odds though.
RBC Heritage Odds to Win
Rory McIlroy: +1100
Bryson DeChambeau: +1400
Justin Thomas: +1600
Jon Rahm: +1800
Xander Schauffele: +2000
Collin Morikawa: +2600
Hideki Matsuyama: +2700
Justin Rose: +2900
Patrick Reed: +2900
Sungjae Im: +2900
More Golfers
(Odds Subject to Change)
Just like last week's return to action, the field at the Heritage is loaded at the top once again. Guys realize that even with the upside down schedule, there still is going to be some form of a FedEx Cup champion to be crowned, and you're going to need points to be involved. We will probably end up seeing loaded fields each week because of it, and that's not necessarily a bad thing for the sport.
Leading the way in the odds is Rory McIlroy (+1200) as it should be for the #1 ranked player in the world. Rory was right there for three rounds last week before an awful Sunday, and oddly enough it's those rounds that are easier to erase from the memory banks. Bouncing back shouldn't be an issue for Rory overall, but at a course he's got next to nothing in history at, taking a wait and see approach with McIlroy may be the way to go.
Beyond him, bettors get the cluster of Bryson DeChambeau (+1400), Justin Thomas (+1600), Jon Rahm (+1800), and Xander Schauffele (+2000) as the next group of golfers on the board. All of the names there had strong showings at Colonial for the majority of the event, and you could argue that Bryson or Xander should have won. Nothing is wrong with the current form with any of these guys, but again, only Bryson's really had success in the past here (3rd, 4th, and two MC's) of all those guys, as this tends to be a tournament they prefer to skip.
Course history is far from the be all end all -especially when everyone will land on Luke Donald (+20000) at RBC Heritage for his history of runner-up finishes – but the second week back after such a long layoff can feel even more draining when you are still out there learning the intricacies of a venue.
So it's all about blending a bit of course history, with motivation (to get paid for the first time in weeks, and earn FedEx Cup points), skill set and overall price for me this week as hopefully we find these names in contention on Sunday.
Golfers to Watch - Hilton Head
Top Picks and Predictions
Contender to Back
RBC Heritage
Favorite: Dustin Johnson +4500
Technically we are little outside of the usual “favorite range” for this selection, but after missing the cut in his return, DJ is going to want to have a strong showing this time around. And quite frankly, there are at least a handful of names with better prices currently that probably shouldn't be where they are. Johnson is a former #1 in the world remember, and he's finished 28th and 16th here the past two years. If a course he likes lines up with a high motivation and execution level for Johnson, he'll vastly outperform this price.
Statistically, Johnson's performance this year after leaving the tee blocks is far from his standards, but the good thing there is we have seen how high his standards are for years. It might just take a few weeks of consistent playing until everything clicks for DJ, and while his prices are in this type of range, I'm willing to ride that run out for a bit. Playing well here the past two seasons may be enough for him to get his approach game rolling again.
And don't forget, last year at this tournament with a solid field, Johnson entered the event as the favorite at under +1000. Better then Rory's number this year. The entire world has changed for all of us a great deal in that year, but Dustin Johnson's skill set on a golf course hasn't all that much. A few more big names don't warrant him being priced here. But I'll gladly jump on board.
Mid-Range Value
RBC Heritage
Jason Kokrak +5000
Kokrak is a guy that far too often finds himself sweating out a Friday cut, and last week was really no different for him. Getting through the -2 cut line with a -3 score after two rounds, Kokrak caught fire over the weekend in shooting 65-64 to end up with a T3. Even with the potential of that being viewed with the beer goggle version of recency bias, that form is hard to ignore in the 2nd tournament back for everyone.
Granted, Kokrak is the far safer Top 20 bet or something because there likely is one round that hovers around par all day, but outside of Berger, I'm not sure there is any other golfer feeling as good about his game at this moment then Kokrak is.
From a price perspective he's probably slightly overvalued here, but with a course history of four missed cuts and four Top 18 finishes here in the past eight seasons, believing Kokrak found something in his approach game that will translate into another strong week at Harbour Town is something that's not all that hard to do.
Long Shot Pick
RBC Heritage
Shane Lowry +9000
Lowry finished 3rd here last year, but he led after rounds one and two in the event and just couldn't get anything going in the right direction on the weekend. Finding a way to play four rounds of golf like that is much easier said then done, but Lowry's got to be excited to get another crack at this course.
Lowry's actually statistically the best of the three selections in the approach game this year, he's just not been able to connect with the putter at any time. Plenty of scoring holes exist out at Harbour Town, so who knows what that sparks in a putter that was supposedly trying to get in form by staying heavily involved in individual games with other pros during the layoff.
72 Hole Matchup to Take:
RBC Heritage
Dustin Johnson (+100) over Brooks Koepka
All the reasons laid out for liking Johnson earlier remain, and with this being the first time Koepka's ever been here, taking the plus money price on DJ has to be done.
Koepka's got a bit more rust on his game then everyone else after his injury earlier in the year, and while he was consistent at the Charles Schwab with all four rounds being -1 or -2, that's not exactly spectacular.
Johnson missed the cut so it's not like he was any better, but he's navigated his way around Harbour Town before, and when you combine that with the potential his game has, it just feels like the wrong player is favored here.
Buy Expert Picks
PGA Tour RBC Heritage
RBC Heritage
Recent Winners (Odds to Win)
2019 - CT Pan (125/1)
2018 - Satoshi Kodaira (250/1)
2017 - Wesley Bryan (60/1)
2016 - Branden Grace (40/1)
2015 - Jim Furyk (20/1)
How to Bet on Golf
Golf betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of the reason behind that increased popularity.
Sportsbooks ensure that there are no shortage of wagering options on golf tournaments every week, and it isn't all about picking the winner. Grabbing the outright winner of a golf tournament is the best way to get that 'big score' but it's also the hardest wager to cash. After all, a typical professional golf tournament has a field of 140+ different players to consider.
Understanding Golf Odds and Bets
Most golf odds are listed in the fractional format – 10/1 on Dustin Johnson for example – and in that particular case you would multiply the amount bet by that first number to project your winnings. So a $100 bet on DJ to win that particular event would win you $1000.
If you are more comfortable with the American version of odds listings that you typically see across the other major North American sports – ie +1000 – these numbers are easily convertible. Online and app based books may already have that option built in, but the easiest way to do it yourself is to add two zeros to the first number in the fraction. So a 10/1 price on DJ converts to +1000 in that format.
By Matt Blunt
Last week turned out alright because of the connection on the outright winner with Daniel Berger, but that still doesn't erase the memory of the rough go it was with the prop selections for last week's event.
Ian Poulter didn't appear to take too kindly to the plays going against him everywhere, but he did come up short in his head-to-head with Branden Grace for the only prop winner of the week.
RBC Heritage
Picks and Predictions
Betting Odds
Date: Thursday, June 18, 2020 to Sunday, June 21, 2020
Venue: Harbour Town Golf Links
Location: Hilton Head, South Carolina
Par-Yardage: 71; 7,100yards
TV: Golf Channel, CBS
You won't hit outright wagers all that often, so it's these props and matchup plays where you've really got to grind out a consistent profit in golf betting. That's always the goal, and it starts with being much better here then a week ago. So no need to fire up the wrong guy like Poulter last week, it's all positive outcomes I'm looking for this week.
Top PGA Tour
Prop Picks and Predictions
Odds per DraftKings
Subject to Change
T&C's Apply, 21+, Legal US States Only
Top 10 Finish – Yes
Rory McIlroy +163
Rory was last on the chopping block in terms of the favorite group for the outright piece, and it's only his lack of a course history here that put him on the outside looking in. But with a safety net of a Top 10 finish still at plus money, and that awful round already out of his system, an interested Rory should be one that's sniffing around for a title.
The safety net is there for when a lack of course knowledge may cost him a partial stroke or two sometime over the weekend if things fall off late again. Can't imagine McIlroy is interested in having another Sunday like last week's any time soon, and had he just shot Even par on Sunday, he would have finished T14. That's how good he can be when he's playing well, and four complete rounds this week should result in a Top 10 for the World #1.
Top 40 Finish – Yes
Si Woo Kim +300
Speaking of having a nice safety net on a guy, these Top 40 prop odds are ones that can't be bypassed every week at the site. With cuts at the top 65 players and ties now on Tour, a Top 40 finish is really just having guys not be the worst of the weekend players, and it's where guys who are considered big long shots in the outright market can still pay off nicely. Si Woo Kim at this price for a Top 40 finish here fits that bill.
Kim has played this event in three of the past four seasons, and while he missed the cut here last year, the other two finishes were 14th and 2nd. If that Kim shows up at Harbour Town this week, a Top 40 finish should be all but in the bag and +300 is a nice look there.
To Make Cut – Yes
Sergio Garcia -159
Garcia is another guy that has next to nothing in terms of recent experience here, but for as good a ball striker as he is in his overall game, this track shouldn't really give him too many issues at least to make it to the weekend. And if the wind kicks up as Harbour Town's best defense, while Garcia isn't exactly the worst option to be backing in windy conditions is he?
But along a similar line of thought to Dustin Johnson needing/wanting a big finish after returning with a missed cut, Sergio's just another name in that same boat. Again, not playing here in 10 years easily takes him out of consideration for other future markets outside of head-to-head matchups, but expecting him to find a way to be around for all four days isn't a big ask at that price.
Tournament Props – Top RBC Golf Ambassador
Dustin Johnson +450
Had to include this play when it's that price on a guy who's already high on my list for outright potential this week. There he's got names like McIlroy, Koepka, Rahm, and Thomas to deal with to name a few, whereas here, only Webb Simpson (+350) and Matt Kuchar (+400) have better odds then DJ for this prop.
Obviously others just behind him like Brand Snedeker (+1000), Jim Furyk (+1100), or the two Canadians Adam Hadwin (+900) or Corey Conners (+1000) could have great weeks as well, but I'd be backing Johnson in head-to-head matchups against any of them, and that includes Simpson and Kuchar.
Just make sure to write down all the names DJ's got to get through on this prop if you do tail along. Makes things easier to track as the week goes on.