PGA Tour Preview - Part One
By Dan Daly
VegasInsider.com
While some people (the PGA TOUR officials) will have you believe the PGA Tour season officially started last fall, I think we can all agree that the real PGA Tour season doesn’t actually start until Tom Brady has won the Super Bowl. Thus, welcome to the 2017 PGA Tour golf season and our first Weekly Waggle of the year. I will be here every other week or so until football season starts again breaking down everything relevant and more likely irrelevant on and off the course on the PGA Tour.
So without further ado, here is part one (10-6) of my 10 sure fire predictions for the 2017 PGA Tour season:
10. Tiger Woods will not make a single cut in 2017 and ultimately will retire from professional golf by the end of the year. Look, there probably isn’t a bigger Tiger supporter out there than me, but the guy has made two cuts in the last 12 Majors played and didn’t even tee it up in half of them. He has exactly one top 10 since the start of the 2014 season and has WD from more tournaments than I can count. Being roughly the same age as Tiger, I have grown up watching arguably the most dominant player the sport has ever seen. He made me more money in the 2000’s than all of my jobs put together. I would love to see Tiger win again…but he’s done. I would love to see Tiger make a run at the Masters or the Open or even the John Deere Classic, but it just ain’t in the cards anymore and at some point this year he will call it a career.
And man, it was a hell of a career. Unfortunately, in the words of Tom Cruise from Cocktail, “Jesus, everything ends badly, otherwise it wouldn't end.”
9. If Tiger is already posted up in the 19th hole of his career, Phil Mickelson is somewhere around the 16th green. While not near the injuries of Tiger, he’s had some injuries of his own recently. Couple that with that fact that he is older and simply not quite the golfer he was 5-10 years ago. Phil might have one, maybe two legitimate chances at winning again before it’s all said and done, but I just don’t see him closing the deal this year, or ever again on the PGA Tour. Yes, ever. I think Phil hangs around at Augusta just because of his track record there and has a decent showing at the PGA (Quail Hollow) for the same reason, but never seriously threatens at any tournament this year. Put it this way, Tiger Woods has won a PGA Tournament since Phil Mickelson last won the British Open in 2013. Think about that for a second and that’s all you need to know about Phil’s chances at winning a PGA Tour event this year or going forward.
8. A lot of talking heads have deemed 2017 the year of Rory based on the way he closed 2016 and his “lack of complete dominance” the last 24 months. This is an argument that I find stupid on more levels than I can count. Yes, he had a good 4 week stretch last September, but the rest of the year leading up to it was garbage. And 2015 was even worse. More importantly I think people over emphasize just how dominant Rory has ever really been in his career. Is he good? Of course. Is he great, sure. Is he, or has he ever been dominant? No. He won 4 times in 2012 (one major) and 3 times in 2014 (two majors). To put that in perspective, DJ had three wins (one major) in 2016, Day had 5 wins (one major) in 2015 and Spieth had 5 wins (two majors) in 2015.
My point? People try and make Rory out to be some dominant golfer that just had a stretch where he cooled off recently and will return to his normal ways this year of plowing through the PGA Tour. The problem is, Rory has never been more dominant at any point is his career than Day or DJ at their best and Rory’s best year, 2014, wasn’t even as good as Spieth’s 2015 season. I think Rory will continue to be “exactly who I thought he was”, a very good golfer that will probably win three PGA Tournaments in 2017 and no majors. Which will of course lead to people asking what’s wrong with him, when in fact he will be the same player he’s always been. No matter how hard people want to try, he’s not Tiger, never has been, and never will be. And that’s ok.
8 (b). If the media’s overblown representation of Rory’s career is number one, then Rickie Fowler’s is 1(b). At least Rory is actually good and has 13 PGA Tour wins and four majors, Fowler has three TOTAL PGA Tour wins…and by a combined ONE shot (two came in a Playoff). Yet people actually had him in the “big 3” conversation for the better part of last year. It’s absolutely laughable to me. Sorry, no prediction here (other than Fowler will once again not win a 2017 PGA Tour event); just my annual Fowler rant that apparently will never change.
7. The International Team will win the President’s Cup. The US is 9-1-1 in the 11 President’s Cup’s played. They haven’t lost since their lone loss in 1998 and on paper the US team will have the better players from top to bottom. But they will lose. I love Steve Stricker and hope for his sake that I am wrong, but I think the International Team finally has a roster that will be loaded in the top half of their team and they will get enough points from guys like Day, Scott, Matsuyama and Grace to squeak out a win on the US home soil.
6. The Zurich Classic’s new format will be awesome. For the first time in, well, forever, The PGA Tour actually decided to think outside-the-box. They took an otherwise crappy tournament and made it must-see TV. The two-man team event, which will alternate foursomes (alternate shot) and fourball (best ball) will be the most exciting non-major of the year. Expect this to go over extremely well with both players and fans and result in other crappy events lining up to try similar outside-the-box ideas going forward, which I am all for.
Be sure and check back next week for part two, including all four major championship winners for 2017.
2017 Predictions - Part II
By Dan Daly
VegasInsider.com
Welcome back to my Part II of the Weekly Waggle 2017 PGA Tour preview for golf bettors and fans alike.
Here is Part I in case you missed it…or you just really want to read it again.
In Part II, I'll break down the four majors, the FedEx Cup and the Player of the Year is below.
Enjoy!
5) PGA Championship – I’m a big fan of Quail Hollow, however I am not a huge fan of the USGA or PGA hosting Majors at courses that otherwise host a yearly PGA tour event (outside of Pebble). There are more than enough very qualified golf courses in this country to host Majors on venues we don’t already see year in and year out. I think part of what makes the three majors outside of Augusta great is that no player preparation on an otherwise unknown course is a huge factor, but that’s just me. The 2017 PGA is a great example of that, or lack thereof.
Outside of Tiger Woods at virtually every Major during the 2000’s, has there ever been a bigger favorite on paper going into a Major than Rory will be at Quail Hollow for the 2017 PGA Championship? The guy has practically owned this course for the past 5+ years, including setting the course record there in 2015. Do I think he will contend? No question. Do I think he will win? Nope. I think with all the pressure and expectations on Rory that week it will open the door to another guy with a good history at Quail Hollow, and a past Major Champion.
Phil Mickelson…Just kidding.
Justin Rose hasn’t won at Quail Hollow but he has quietly racked up a very good record there with a solo third in 2016 and a solo fifth in 2014. He already has a Major and a Gold Medal under his belt and will add Major Championship number two at the 2017 PGA Championship.
4) British Open – Speaking of which, the British Open returns to Royal Birkdale for the first time since 1998, where Mark O’Meara won. But the story that week was a 17 year old Amateur named Justin Rose who burst onto to scene by holing a dramatic shot from the rough for birdie on the 72nd hole to finish in a tie for fourth as low amateur. I tell you this because that shot will be shown and talked about ad nauseam the entire week…you’ve been warned. As for who will win that 2017 British Open…
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me 567 times, shame on anyone that picks Sergio Garcia to win a Major. Well, I guess I’m a sucker for punishment, but if Dustin Johnson can win a U.S. Open last year, then to hell with it, Sergio Garcia can win a British Open this year. Yes, I’m serious. Sergio Garcia is going to finally win his first Major in 2017, and the one he covets most of all. He is not only playing well, but almost more importantly, he is happy and seems to be at peace with life. Don’t under estimate how important that is, especially when it comes to Sergio. Sergio has always had the talent to win, he just had a bad attitude and overall unhappiness in life. That all seems to have changed since his engagement.
For bonus points, not only will he win the British, but he will win the Players Championship as well. I think Sergio has a very big 2017 both on the European Tour and the PGA Tour this year.
3) U.S. Open – Unfortunately as long as Mike Davis and the other clowns surrounding him are in charge of the U.S. Open, they will continue to be a bigger story every year than the tournament itself. As sure as the sun will rise tomorrow, the USGA will do something incredibly stupid involving the course set-up, a crucial ruling and anything else they are involved with that week. On the scorecard, Erin Hills plays 7,800 yards from the tips. I was told that the USGA could push that to over 8,000 yards for the Open (see previous statement). If that is true, and I believe they will, then 98% of the field is already eliminated. That leaves guys like Rory, DJ, Stenson, Day, Matsuyama and of course I wouldn’t count out Spieth at any tournament.
But I think the winner this year comes from a little further outside the Top 10. A guy that hits it a mile, won’t be phased by all the stupid things the USGA will do and is playing well going into the tournament. While there is no way to know who will be playing well four months from now, there is a guy that fits the first two requirements and for the past three years has played his best golf of the year from May to August. That man is none other than Brooks Koepka. I think people were a little too quick to jump on his bandwagon early on and now that enough people have jumped off I think he’s primed for his first Major Championship at Erin Hills.
2) Masters – Sometimes in life the most obvious answer is in fact the right one. For the last two months I wanted to take Hideki Matsuyama here. He has back to back top 10’s the last two years at Augusta and is hitting it better than anyone else on the planet. But his one glaring weakness is the flat stick (I don’t care what the stats this year show), and at Augusta that is really hard to overlook. I think he is a lock for a Top 5 there this year, but when it all comes down to it I have to go with the guy that is the clear cut favorite for a reason -- Jordan Spieth.
Spieth should have won it last year, ran away with it the year before that and has lost to exactly two people at Augusta in the last three years. In other words the guy really likes the golf course. Spieth lost the 2016 Masters because his iron play was atrocious…and still finished second. So far in 2017, it has been nothing short of spectacular. Throw in the fact that he is proving to once again be the best putter on the planet and I simply don’t see any scenario where Jordan Spieth doesn’t go 2-1-2-1 in his first four starts at the Masters. Sure, Matsyuama putting out of his mind for four days, maybe, but I just don’t see it happening. If his iron play stays even half way decent for the next 60 days Spieth won’t just win his second Green Jacket in three years, he might do so going away…again.
1) I think guys like Day, DJ, Stenson and Rory will all have a good year, but not a great one. Day still only has one major to his credit. DJ will contend a number of times and win a handful of events, but no majors. Stenson had four magical days with his putter last July, but is now back to normal. I covered Rory last week, but I just don’t see him having anywhere near the year people are expecting.
Thus, going into the FedEx Cup Playoffs I think you have a three horse race (this is also my Player of the Year rankings):
3rd - Matsuyama who will have four wins under his belt by then, a handful of close calls along the way and Top 10 at the PGA to go with his Top 5 at Augusta.
2nd – Sergio will come in with his first Major, a Players Championship, a Top 10 at the US Open and at least one other mid-level PGA Tour win in 2017. Even though I think he has a spectacular year, I just don’t think when it’s all said and done it will
Your FedEx Cup Champion and 2017 POY - My man Jordan Spieth.
After a delayed sophomore slump in 2016 (only winning twice and finishing second at Augusta), Spieth will win at Augusta, take home another three PGA Tour events (including Pebble obviously) before winning the TOUR Championship for win number five of 2017 and cementing his second FedEx Cup championship and POY award in the last three years.