Preakness Stakes Breakdown
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com
1 - Multiplier 30/1 Joel Rosario (0-4) Brendan Walsh (Debut)
Notes: Broke his maiden in his third start at the Fair Grounds before taking the Illinois Derby in a sharp time going nine furlongs while making his stakes debut. He’s been sold between starts but his trainer has had him for all four tries. He’s improved in each of his starts but he’ll have to make a big jump to compete here and I don’t think he beat much last out. I’m passing.
2 - Cloud Computing 12/1 Javier Castellano (1-5) Chad Brown (Debut)
Notes: He’ll be making just the fourth start of his career and is still eligible for an entry level allowance contest but consider this: he was second in the Gotham, the prep that yielded the highest Beyer Speed Figure on the Derby Trail in just the second start of his career. Then he ran third and made up ground to do so in the Wood Memorial on a day where speed reigned supreme. Castellano upset this with “new shooter” Bernardini in 2006 and asked off Gunnevera to ride this guy. An obvious player from some of the sharpest connections in the game. I’m using him in all of my wagers.
3 - Hence 20/1 Florent Geroux (0-1) Steve Asmussen (2-5)
Notes: For the life of me, I will never understand the fascination people have with this horse. I wish I could have booked every dollar on him in Louisville, as 15-1 was an awful price on a horse I thought had zero chance. He got beat over 18 lengths and did hardly any running. Guess what? I don’t like him in here either AND I think he’s going to take some more “wiseguy” money.
4 - Always Dreaming 4/5 John Velazquez (0-7) Todd Pletcher (0-8 )
Notes: He’s a perfect four for four with Pletcher, all around two turns. He won the Derby decisively, sitting just off the early pacesetter before opening up a sizeable lead and holding sway throughout the Churchill stretch. He should get a similar trip here. He’s your prohibitive Preakness favorite. There are the pros. Here are the cons. Churchill was a “no pass zone” for the three days leading up to and including the Derby. Battle of Midway was third past the wire the first AND final time. They couldn’t have dreamed up, pun intended, a better scenario for him. Pletcher has run 5200 horses over the past five years. Only two of them started with less than 15 days rest. The fact that both lost is unimportant. It just shows that it’s not something the barn does. Maybe he is THAT good and can overcome that. You want to take 4-5 to find out? I don’t. Look, he can obviously win but I honestly don’t think he will. I’ll use him protectively in a saver pick 4 ticket or two and in some exotic wagers but I hope he runs the way most Pletcher Preakness runners have in the past.
5 - Classic Empire 3/1 Julien Leparoux (0-7) Mark Casse (0-3)
Notes: Of all the trips in the Derby, the juvenile champ had the worst, save bucking bronco Thunder Snow. Slammed at start, jostled about, spun wide the entire way…..what might have been had he gotten a clean trip. He ran a dynamite race when you consider everything he went through leading up to the event. But that is the past. We have to worry about now. You’ll hear a lot about Always Dreaming having to deal with just two weeks between efforts but this guy has to deal too. Simply put, do you believe he’s the trip horse out of the Derby or is he the trap? EVERYONE saw what we did so he’ll easily be the second choice. And I just don’t feel comfy making him my top pick. He is an obvious contender and will be on all of my tickets.
6 - Gunnevera 15/1 Mike Smith (1-15) Antonio Sano (Debut)
Notes: More and more I see of him, the more I think that Fountain of Youth explosion is the exception and not the rule. Granted, he didn’t have the best trip in the Derby, put quite a few had worse. He just never fired. And while he gets “Money Mike” in the saddle, what does it say that Castellano jumped ship almost immediately after the Derby to ride Cloud Computing? A slave to pace, he’d really need things to collapse for him to have a chance and that usually doesn’t happen here. I’m passing on him.
7 - Term of Art 30/1 Jose Ortiz (Debut) Doug O’Neill (1-3)
Notes: An also-ran all winter and spring long in SoCal, he’ll get a rider change to one of the more aggressive jockeys in the game. Problem is, he doesn’t have an ounce of speed. If JO gets him near the lead, he’s Houdini. He has a wonderful pedigree but he hasn’t run to it in his previous nine tries. Why should I think he’s going to wake up in Baltimore, of all places? He’s no I’ll Have Another, O’Neill’s winner from 2012, that’s for sure. Not for me.
8 - Senior Investment 30/1 Channing Hill (Debut) Kenny McPeek (0-3)
Notes: Stormed home to take the Lexington over at Keeneland five weeks ago against a suspect bunch. He’s really improved since McPeek added Lasix but I’m always dubious of these horses that winter at the Fair Grounds. His big late rally makes you think he’s going to relish the added distance of the classic races but I don’t think he’s anything more than a decent, middle distance type. Pass.
9 - Lookin At Lee 10/1 Corey Lanerie (0-1) Steve Asmussen (2-5)
Notes: He came less than three lengths away from making me look like a genius in Louisville as I said for months that the Derby had the feel of a horse like him picking up the pieces and paying $65. Well, he’d have paid $68.40 if he could have just run down Always Dreaming but he couldn’t. The rail draw last out, as I expected, was a blessing, as they couldn’t have gotten a better trip. He simply wasn’t good enough. Unfortunately, I think that is this guy’s destiny. He’ll probably never be quite good enough to win. But he always gets a piece. I’ll use him underneath.
10 - Conquest Mo Money 15/1 Jorge Carreno (Debut) Miguel Hernandez (Debut)
Notes: I’m going to get a lot of grief and ribbing for this, but he’s my pick to win the Preakness. There is very little early pace in here, save this guy, who is easily at his best when free-wheeling on the front end. Always Dreaming and Johnny V will be more than happy to use him as a target and I don’t see any of the others in here pressing him early, unless the Classic Empire camp has other ideas, which I think is unlikely. If he gets in front early and I’m right about Always Dreaming, who I truly believe will be calling it a day by the quarter pole, he’ll have a decent-sized lead into the stretch. All he has to do is close the door. Maybe he will. Maybe he won’t. I’m willing to find out at 25-1 or so.
Preakness Stakes Horse-by-Horse Breakdown
By: Monique Vág
Covers.com
After the front-running style of Always Dreaming proved to be advantageous over the sloppy surface at Churchill Downs, it’s no surprise to see him as favorite for the 142nd running of the Preakness Stakes. He's joined by many familiar faces hoping to rebound off the Kentucky Derby and new horses which try their luck at capturing the second jewel of the Triple Crown.
Here’s a horse-by-horse breakdown for this Saturday’s Preakness Stakes:
1. Multiplier (Jockey – Joel Rosario, 30-1): He's one of few entering fresh after skipping the Kentucky Derby. That's partly due to how long it took this horse to break his Maiden and his relative inexperience. His biggest win was in the G3 Illinois Derby in a time of 1:47.98 - the second fastest in the race's history. Pedigree wise, his sire The Factor is known for his sprinting talent, but this colt looks to have stamina on the grandam side, so I feel pretty confident in saying distance will likely not be an issue. He takes a huge jump up in class today but being lightly raced could work to his advantage.
2. Cloud Computing (Javier Castellano, 12-1): He's another lightly raced colt which may be sitting on a big effort. The Preakness has historically been favorable to front-running horses and speed, so he should warrant some consideration. He may work out the perfect stalking trip and save ground racing behind front runners Conquest Mo Money and Always Dreaming. Jockey wise, he receives a big upgrade to Castellano who is choosing to ride him over his Derby mount of Gunnevera.
3. Hence (Florent Geroux, 20-1): I'll give him a pass for not taking well to the off track at Churchill Downs. He never seemed comfortable and not many horses were making up ground late. He's capable of a bounce-back effort Saturday. He did have a nice rebounding effort after the disappointing seventh in the Southwest Stakes, coming back to win the Sunland Derby a little over a month later. Trainer wise, it doesn't get much better than Steve Asmussen, who has won the Preakness Stakes with the likes of Curlin in 2007 and super filly Rachel Alexandra in 2009.
4. Always Dreaming (John Velazquez, 4-5): He's still undefeated at three years old and that’s quite the feat, although his front-running style definitely worked to his advantage in the Derby. Pletcher is a trainer that likes giving horses adequate rest between races. He's started 48 Kentucky Derby horses but only ran three back in the Preakness. There’s no denying Pletcher has struggled at Pimlico. Pletcher has lost 17 straight on dirt when racing within 14 days of his last start. Perhaps those statistics are enough to warrant a play against the short priced favorite.
5. Classic Empire (Julien Leparoux, 3-1): He broke very poorly in the Kentucky Derby and lost the race right from the very beginning. He prefers being closer to the pace and he will have every opportunity to do so racing over a (hopefully) fast track, and versus a much smaller field in the Preakness Stakes. While his last effort was pretty poor based on what we've seen this colt capable of doing, it’s a definite positive sign to see that he made up ground and closed for third. Pay attention to the status of his right eye. He suffered an eye abrasion and was unable to open it the following day in the Derby. Although, I'm fairly confident connections wouldn't race him if he’s not at 100 percent, but it may be something to watch out for.
6. Gunnevera (Mike Smith, 15-1): Nobody was closing in the Kentucky Derby, due to the poor track conditions but mainly the slow-pace scenario, so I can't necessarily fault him for a disappointing showing. He finds a new jockey in Mike Smith and I always look at the addition of someone of his caliber as a positive thing. Perhaps this means we may see Gunnevera positioned a little bit closer to the pace? It wouldn't surprise me. He may be worthy of a closer look because the odds will be good if you'd like to take a shot against the shorter priced horses.
7. Term of Art (Jose Ortiz, 30-1): This colt will be racing with blinkers on after racing without them for his last three starts. He did race his first six career races with them and those were some of his best efforts, so I'm not surprised to see connections return to what worked. It's nice to see him with a graded stakes win under his belt - it was at two years old - but he's capable of competing with graded-stakes horses. He hasn't raced outside of California before, so I'm interested to see how he takes to mostly East Coast competition. Likely overmatched.
8. Senior Investment (Channing Hill, 30-1): He's entering today off a victory in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland and there's something to be said about entering with a little bit of confidence off a victory. He takes a huge jump up in class Saturday to try mostly pure Grade 1 winners, and that may be too much to handle. He would need to cut seconds off his time and put forth by far the best effort in order to contend. He’s a huge long shot and his odds will certainly reflect that at post time.
9. Lookin At Lee (Corey Lanerie, 10-1): He surprised many rallying up the rail to finish a very game second to the eventual winner Always Dreaming in the Kentucky Derby. He's a colt that has been improving and the effort he puts forth in races are very apparent and definitely a positive trait to see out of young horses. He's one of a few in the Derby that showed a particular affinity for the off track. With a faster pace upfront, would he have been able to track down Always Dreaming? Not likely, but it's possible. He prefers racing longer where there's a little bit more ground traveled. You may want to wait until the Belmont before backing this colt.
10. Conquest Mo Money (Jorge Carreno, 15-1): This speedster will most likely take to the Pimlico dirt surface and appreciate racing the shorter distance of the Preakness. He skipped out on the Kentucky Derby and the extra month of training he's received from his last start is an added bonus especially for young horses. He'll almost certainly be forwardly placed and his early-running style helps his chances greatly. He narrowly missed edging Classic Empire in his last start too, so he definitely warrants some serious consideration.
Picks: 1. Always Dreaming 2. Multiplier 3. Classic Empire 4. Cloud Computing 5. Hence
At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com
Actress came from far back to pull off the upset in Friday’s $250,000 Black Eyed Susan (G2) at Pimlico, returning $27.60 to win and topping a $2 exacta that returned $240.20.
The Jason Servis trainee came into the race as a maiden, running second in her debut and then second in the restricted Game Face Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
Pimlico offered a daily double with the Black Eyed Susan and Preakness and here are the $2 will pays:
1. Multiplier, $539.20
2. Cloud Computing, $368.80
3. Hence, $576.40
4. Always Dreaming, $68.80
5. Classic Empire, $85.20
6. Gunnevera, $300.40
7. Term of Art, $2,600.20
8. Senior Investment, $1,573.80
9. Lookin At Lee, $406.20
10. Conquest Mo Money, $309.00
Always Dreaming is the lowest payoff at $68.80 followed by Classic Empire at $85.40. The Kentucky Derby champ was taking some serious early betting action in the win pool, last I heard late Friday he was sitting at 2-5.
I think by post time he will drift up to either 3-5 or 4-5, still a very short price. However, 10 of the last 20 Derby winners were successful coming back and winning the Preakness two weeks later including American Pharoah in 2015 and California Chrome in 2014.
The Preakness is set for 6:48 ET and will be broadcast live on NBC. The race is the last of eight stakes races on an outstading 14-race card that kicks off at 10:30am ET.
To purchase my Preakness Day, Belmont Park and my Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here.
Now would be a good time to get my Monthly Package, which includes my Preakness Day and Belmont Stakes Day Reports as well as my daily Belmont Park Reports and Best Plays each weekend.
Here is the opening race from Pimlico to get the day off to a good start:
PIM Race 1 OClm $25,000N2X (10:30 ET)
#5 Spring Quality 9-5
#6 Kaitain 2-1
#7 Cause He's Western 6-1
#1 Connemara Coast 6-1
Analysis: Spring Quality may get the day off to a chalky start. The Motion trainee caught a tougher group at Keeneland last out where the gelding stalked the early pace and weakened to finish fifth. Two back off the layoff he ran well in a runner up finish behind repeat winner Matt King Cole, who came back to win the Johnson Memorial in his next start and then missed in the Charles Town Classic (G2) by a neck in a runner up finish. There is not much speed in here and it looks as if McCarthy can have this guy closer to the front here.
Kaitain is back on dirt after making a good late rally to just miss by a neck last out on turf at this level at Laurel Park. The gelding returns with blinkers added and he ran well two back in a third place finish in the Johnson Memorial. he was sixth behind our top pick three back. He seldom runs a bad one but does have a habit of landing for minor shares.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 1,5,6,7
TRI: 5,6 / 1,5,6,7 / 1,2,5,6,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 7 The Soaring Softly (4:17 ET)
#4 Lady Alexandra 7-2
#2 Team of Teams 5-1
#6 Con Te Partiro 6-1
#5 Morticia 3-1
Analysis: Lady Alexandra was a sharp winner versus Alw-1 foes last out at six furlongs here off a four month break. The filly as washed off the turf in her first two starts and then ran a good third in the Ginger Brew in her turf debut at Gulfstream park back in January. She can handle the extra furlong here and still appears to have a ton of upside.
Team of Teams beat Alw-1 optional claimers two back in her U.S. debut off a 5 1/2 month layoff and the set the early fractions and could not hold off the winner late in a runner up finish in the Memories of Silver at the Big A going long. She was 3 1/2 lengths clear of the rest of the field in the effort. The cut back to seven furlongs should suit this gal as she makes her third start off the bench for the Jerkens barn. She is out of the stakes winner Teammate ($618,276).
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,5,6
TRI: 2,4 / 2,4,5,6 / 2,3,4,5,6
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Pimlico:
PIM Race 12 The Dixie G2 (5:39 ET)
#2 World Approval 7-2
#10 Ring Weekend 4-1
#4 Projected 3-1
#7 Blacktype 4-1
Analysis: World Approval came off a 5 1/2 month layoff with a sharp win in the Florida bred Turf Classic at Tampa Bay Downs which should set him up nicely against this much tougher group. He won the United Nations (G1) last July and just missed in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs by a neck. The Casse trainee has been working sharply at Churchill Downs since his last win and should move forward off that effort here.
Ring Weekend was off a beat slow last out in the Frank Kilroe (G1), a race he won in '15, and he made a mild late rally to finish fourth, beaten 1 3/4 lengths for the top spot. He has earned seven triple digit Beyer in his last 10 starts including a career top 107 winning the Seabiscuit 'Cap (G2) at Del Mar last November. He missed in this race last year by a neck in a runner up finish to Takeover Target. The Motion trainee looks headed in the right direction form wise.
Projected makes his third start since landing in the U.S. for the Chad Brown barn. He beat allowance foes at Keeneland last out in a game effort over a couple of next out winners—runner up Divisidoro winning the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1) and third place finisher Pleuven coming back to win the Opening Verse on May 4 at Churchill Downs. He does not need to move forward much off his last effort to be in the mix in this spot.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 2,10 / 2,4,7,10
TRI: 2,10 / 2,4,7,10 / 2,4,7,8,10
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R1: #3 Shadow Surprise 8-1
R2: #7 bale’s Corner 10-1
R3: #4 Backsideofthemoon 20-1
R8: #10 Tiz a Chance 8-1
R8: #8 Marble Falls 15-1
R9: #6 Silver Vixen 15-1
R10: #10 Prima Attrice 15-1
R10: #9 Down Royal 15-1
Three Live Long-Shot betting Picks
By: Monique Vág
Covers.com
This year's Kentucky Derby was run over a sloppy track, where front runners pretty much dominated the whole racing card. In this year's Preakness Stakes, early favorite Always Dreaming will be a short price as he hopes to capture the second jewel of the Triple Crown trophy.
With quite a few familiar faces and many newcomers trying their chances at the Preakness, there's a ton of value going against the even money favorite.
Here are the long shots that may outrun their odds and light up the toteboard Saturday:
Hence (+1,200)
It's definitely possible he just didn't take to the off track at Churchill Downs. He never really seemed comfortable and it certainly didn't help his chances having to make up ground after a not-so-ideal break over the slop.
Hence seems to be one of those slow-learning horses. He didn't win at two years old and it took him over three starts to break his Maiden. I do think after every race he's gotten better and I think he's capable of a bounce-back effort. He did have a nice rebounding effort after the disappointing seventh in the Southwest Stakes, coming back to win the Sunland Derby a little over a month later.
I think being trained by Steve Asmussen, who has won the Preakness Stakes with the likes of Curlin in 2007 and super filly Rachel Alexandra in 2009, is an added bonus.
Multiplier (+1,600)
He's one of a handful of runners entering fresh after skipping the Kentucky Derby. He only has four career starts, but being lightly raced isn't necessarily a negative thing. It took him three starts before breaking his Maiden, but he did so racing two turns and in his fourth start won the 1 1/8-mile Illinois Derby in a time of 1:47.98 - the second fastest in race history.
Although the Illinois Derby was a Grade 3 race and not against the caliber of horses he will meet Saturday, he definitely showed that distance won't be an issue and he that he may be finding his racing strides at the perfect time.
The addition of jockey Joel Rosario is a nice touch. He has lots of Triple Crown experience and could potentially bring the best out of this lightly raced colt.
Cloud Computing (+2,000)
With a lack of speed and pace being an issue coming into the Preakness, I think there's certainly some merit to betting horses that you know will be involved early. I think the two horses which may end up with perfect trips are Cloud Computing and Classic Empire.
These two have shown enough early speed to potentially craft a nice staking trip. Cloud Computing will need to improve quickly to tackle some of the other proven contenders, but I do think his racing style suits the Pimlico dirt surface well.
It's intriguing that jockey Javier Castellano is choosing to ride him over Gunnevera, who he was riding in the Derby. Perhaps skipping the Derby and allowing extra time to prepare will work to his advantage.