Predicting the World Cup
By Judd Hall
Not too many sporting events allow you access to all of the lines seven months in advance. But the World Cup isn’t just any event; it’s sports in the raw. Winning and losing is all that matters, not the moral story junk you get out of the Olympics.
So we’ve had plenty of time to look at all 32 teams and the eight groups they’ve been equally broken down into for the tournament. Now all we have to do is figure out which nations are worth our time and money to back at the betting shops.
Some gamblers have already staked their claim to a little patriotism at the betting window. Bodog’s sportsbook manager Richard Gardner explains, “It’s getting busy here with the World Cup starting in a couple of days and we have seen steady action on the Americans to win the whole thing at 50/1.” Should the Yanks pull off an upset of epic proportions, the sportsbooks will be hit hard in their coffers. “It is right now our biggest loser and by tournament time should be a potential seven-figure loss for us. No surprise that in the Saturday afternoon matchup the USA at 9/2 is a very popular bet as well,” says Gardner.
VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Bob Donahue isn’t taking the Americans to win the whole kit and caboodle, but likes them to a longshot to win Group C. “It all comes down to Saturday's match, and I believe the over confidence of the English squad may provide a golden opportunity for our Yanks.”
Donahue is alone in our stable of experts in seeing the US as having a chance to take the top spot in Group C. Defensive form has been a huge issue in the international friendlies leading up to the tourney in South Africa. That’s not to say the back line for the Americans can’t get better. “The United States’ rugged defensive backbone could become even stronger if the majestic Oguchi Onyewu is beyond this season's knee problems at AC Milan,” says The Gold Sheet’s Bruce Marshall.
While the United States is considered a longshot to win its group, there is no doubt amongst our crew of handicappers that the English will take first place. In fact, you’d expect to see Keyser Soze since the usual suspects are expected to win their respective groups. So that means you can punch tickets for the knockout phase for Argentina, England, Germany, Netherlands, Brazil and Spain.
The majority of the crowd have tabbed Italy $2.25 favorites (risk $225 to win $100) at Bodog to win Group F and why not. They’re the defending champions but most of the roster over 30 years of age, so you have to wonder if the Azzurri are too old to defend the crown.
Group A has our stable the most split when it comes to picking the winner. France may have cheated to make the field of 32 (no debating this one, handballs are cheating), but have been given the nod to finish first for a plus-125 return (risk $100 to win $125) by Marshall and Donahue. I can’t help but think Les Bleus is going to flame out gloriously in group play. This is a side that was whipped by Spain, slipped past Costa Rico, flunked to a draw with Tunisia and was embarrassed by the Chinese in early June. Forgive me if I don’t think or want this team to succeed.
When you’re looking for longshots, our crew has given a democratic majority to give you some decent value. Greece (+750), Slovakia (+700), Ivory Coast (+450) and Chile (+500) are all teams that could wind up winning their respective groups. Some would think that Les Elephants would be in trouble with Didier Drogba breaking his arm before playing in Group G, but Marshall notes that Portugal hasn’t shown any of the form recently that got them a fourth-place finish in Germany four years back.
South Africa gets the top seed in the World Cup just since they are the host country. And several bettors aren’t buying into them despite making a semifinal run in the Confederation Cup last season. But there is some reason to take Bafana Bafana at plus-550. Every host nation has at least advanced to the knockout phase. And there isn’t a sure-fire winner in this group from what can be seen.
Lawrence Prezman likes the idea of Algeria coming out of nowhere to get Group C at 22/1. “Algeria finished fourth at the African Cup of Nations earlier this year but was inconsistent in accomplishing that feat, which is why they are considered such outsiders for the World Cup. However, they are the second best club in a weak Group C.” Only issue with that is they lost to Egypt and Nigeria by a combined score of 5-0.
Slovenia has the making of a team that controls its own destiny in Group C. The opener against Algeria is totally winnable, and the US could be let-down mode after a battle with the redcoats. That leaves England, who will presumably be resting everyone of worth in preparation for a date in the Round of 16 (and won 2-1 against the Slovenians in Sept. 2009). Given that Slovenia has shown good form in its games leading up to the World Cup, taking them at 10/1 at Bodog makes sense.
When it comes to winning it all, Spain has the backing of the small majority of ‘cappers at 4/1. “Spain finally has belief it can, and should, succeed on the biggest stage after its dominating run at Euro 2008,” says Bruce Marshall. “A current great generation of players is in its prime. Roster has outstanding depth and strength in numbers. Iker Casillas perhaps the best GK in the world. Plenty of attacking options at manager Vicente del Bosque's disposal should striker Fernando Torres not be 100%. Sevilla's Jesus Navas could emerge as a breakout star of the tournament, as might Barcelona's central defender Gerard Pique. Only concern is filling the deep-lying midfield role played so well in Euro 2008 by Marcos Senna, who mopped up nicely, allowing Xavi and Iniesta to move forward without hesitation. The pressure will be on Xabi Alonso to fill that important role as effectively, but if he can, Spain can repeat its win at Euro 2008, when it was clearly the best in the field.”