EPL Best Bets - Week 16
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
The midweek fixtures in the Champions League were all about Liverpool and Manchester City. Both had tough matches which they needed to win in order to qualify from their group.
On Tuesday Liverpool could only manage a 1-1 draw with Basel, finishing third in a group that looked fairly straightforward from the outset. In a much harder group, City needed to win at the intimidating Stadio Olimpico in Rome. Stripped of arguably their four best outfield players, they came away with a fantastic 2-0 win. It was the sort of victory that could galvanise City’s season. With Chelsea recently dropping points, the title race is nowhere near over yet.
Let's handicap Week 16 of the Premier League.
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
The Banker: Manchester United to beat Liverpool at 4/5
Sunday's big game sees arguably English football’s fiercest rivalry. Last year was an anomaly in recent United vs. Liverpool fixtures, as it was the men from Merseyside who held the upper hand. It was the first time since 2001/02 that Liverpool had finished above United. However since the end of last season, Liverpool have nose-dived as quickly as they rose last season, while United have been steadily improving under Louis van Gaal.
United’s progress must not be overstated. They have not been coasting through games like they often did under Sir Alex Ferguson, but van Gaal has instilled the ‘win when you don’t play well’ habit that eluded David Moyes. The Red Devils have won five on the spin. Particularly pleasingly, Robin van Persie seems to have discovered some form. The Dutchmen scored twice as United edged past Southampton on Monday night. They have had an extra day’s rest over Liverpool, who will be mentally and physically exhausted after their exit from the Champions League. 4/5 on United to compound Brendan Rodgers’s woes is a good price.
The Solid Bet: Aston Villa +0.5 at West Bromwich Albion at 41/50
Aston Villa rarely convince in matches, but neither do West Bromwich Albion. This West Midlands derby is between two sides in transition, and it will probably be a tight, tense affair. West Brom are 23/20, and at that price they cannot be backed against anybody. They have won just three times all season, and two of those were against Leicester City and Burnley. Villa, meanwhile, have hit a bit of form and are unbeaten in five, moving them up to mid-table. They have won their last two games, against teams of a similar calibre to West Brom in Leicester and Crystal Palace.
Both these teams are probably more happy playing as underdogs. Neither’s strengths lie in possession; rather they lie in quick transitions between defence and attack, and this suits away teams more. Villa are a team who tend to do their best work on the road. With just one point and one goal from their last five games, it is difficult to see how the Baggies can break Villa down, and 41/50 on Villa +0.5 looks a very solid bet.
The Outsider: Burnley to beat Southampton at 17/4
Southampton’s bubble may have burst. Their three fixtures against the two Manchester clubs and Arsenal were seen as their first big tests of the season, and Koeman’s men lost them all. The news was not all bad: they were competitive in the first half against City, were level until the 89th minute against Arsenal and had 15 shots to Manchester United’s 3. However, confidence will have taken a knock and a tricky trip to a reviving Burnley is hardly the perfect fixture.
Burnley’s home form will be crucial this year. Last year the only side to beat them at home were Leicester - the only team to finish above them. And this season the Clarets have competed well in all their home games apart from the first one against Chelsea. With star striker Danny Ings fully fit and a recent tightening up of the defence, 17/4 on Burnley to win looks an appealing outsider bet.
The First Goalscorer: Diafra Saho for West Ham United at Sunderland at 11/2
While fellow early-season surprise packages Southampton fall, West Ham have gone from strength to strength recently. They have won four on the bounce and now sit fourth in the Premier League. The simple reason for this is nothing to do with a change of system; it is simply that Sam Allardyce has better players available this season.
One of them is striker Diafra Sakho. Sakho was plucked from obscurity in the summer, as he joined from Ligue 2 side FC Metz where he’d scored goals for fun. The man from Senegal has continued that form this season with an incredible seven goals in nine games. With such a record it is baffling that he is not favourite to score in a game where West Ham are actually slight favourites. Instead it is the talented yet erratic Andy Carroll who leads the market at 5/1. But Sakho’s goalscoring record is miles better than Carroll’s and at 11/2 he is surely a good shout to break the deadlock at the Stadium of Light.
Arsenal vs. Newcastle Betting Preview and Pick
By: Al Hain-Cole
Goal.com
Newcastle will be hoping to follow up last weekend's win over Chelsea with another shock victory against London opposition when they travel to the Emirates Stadium to take on Arsenal on Saturday (12:30 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network).
Having won six and lost just one of their last eight league games, the Magpies head into this clash level on points with their hosts, and are available at +700 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook to overtake them by coming out on top.
In contrast, Arsene Wenger's side will be looking to bounce back from a third defeat in five league games away to Stoke last time out, and are -250 favorites at the Westgate to emerge victorious.
The Gunners have not drawn any of their last seven fixtures in the league, but there are odds of +375 available on them being held to a stalemate in this one.
On the goal-spread, the Westgate has Arsenal -1½ goals (+120), with Newcastle +1½ goals (-140). The total is 2.5 goals (OVER -140, UNDER +120).
Last weekend’s victory by Newcastle over the leaders was made even more remarkable by the injury list plaguing Alan Pardew’s team, although this clash is likely to prove still more of a test.
While the Magpies have established themselves as something of a bogey team against Chelsea in recent years, their record against Saturday’s opposition is far less inspiring.
Having lost each of the last five encounters against the hosts in all competitions, Pardew’s men will be up against it to end that sorry streak after the suspended Moussa Sissoko and Steven Taylor were also added to a list of absentees that now stretches comfortably into double figures.
However, the guests can at least take some comfort from the similar injury crisis currently afflicting their opponents, with the injured Laurent Koscielny and Nacho Monreal joining the suspended Calum Chambers on the sidelines to leave Wenger with something of a defensive crisis.
These injuries at either end of the pitch can only lead to an open match, with Arsenal having demonstrated their eye for goal even without a number of star men in a 4-1 away victory over Galatasaray in midweek.
Therefore, although their superior attacking options should see the home team to victory against an opponent that rarely causes them to much trouble, an Arsenal/OVER parlay, which pays off at +140 at the Westgate, look like excellent value.
Goal.com best bet: Arsenal-to-OVER parlay (+140)