EPL Best Bets - Week 29
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
With 10 weeks to go in the Barclays Premier League, time is running out for Manchester City to bridge the gap on Chelsea. They are five points behind the Blues, who also have a game in hand against bottom-club Leicester City. Man City will see this weekend as a good opportunity to make up some ground: they travel to relegation-threatened Burnley, while Chelsea face a tricky game at home to Southampton. It’s been a bad week for Jose Mourinho’s men, who were lethargic in their Champions League exit against Paris Saint-Germain. PSG had 10 men for most of the 120 minutes.
Away from the battle at the top, there’s a huge game in the race for the two remaining Champions League places as Manchester United play Spurs. The big game down at the bottom sees Leicester face Hull. If Leicester lose, they can probably be written off for the drop.
Let's handicap Week 29 of the Premier League.
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
The Banker: Arsenal to beat West Ham United to nil at 13/10
Arsenal have been an easy team to predict for a decade now. They tend to struggle against the big teams and make short work of average teams at home. Their home game against West Ham looks like being one of the latter. West Ham have only lost four away games this season, but they have all been against strong teams.
Arsenal have only dropped points once against a team outside the top six at home all season - a 2-2 draw with Hull City. West Ham have had a very good season, but their strategy away from home is still reasonably defensive. They will have very possession at the Emirates and a quiet win, maybe 2-0, looks very likely.
The Solid Bet: Tottenham Hotspur to win at Manchester United at 10/3
Manchester United’s dreadful performance in the 2-1 home defeat to Arsenal in the FA Cup earlier this week sent alarm bells ringing around Old Trafford. The fact is that United’s performances simply do not merit the fourth position they currently sit in. While they tend to have just enough firepower to dispose of teams in the bottom half at home, they are finding things tougher against the top teams.
Two months ago, the same accusations could be made against Spurs. They were putting in some very poor performances but getting results. Now, with the revelation that is Harry Kane up front, Tottenham suddenly look a very good outfit. They lie just three points behind United in sixth and have the fourth best away record in the division. On current form, they are probably a marginally better team than United.
The Outsider: Newcastle United to win at Everton at 15/4
Everton have clearly underachieved this year and are clearly a better team than position of 14th suggests, but it is still amazing to see them odds on at 5/6 for a game against a team above them in the league. Newcastle are a pretty ordinary side, particularly away from home, but the fact remains that Everton have won just three times at Goodison Park - a ground that was labelled a fortress in the David Moyes era.
What is more, Everton played in the Europa League on Thursday night while Newcastle haven’t played for 11 days. Everton’s record after European fixtures is poor: it reads Won 2, Drawn 1, Lost 4. Their game against Dynamo Kiev was a fast-paced, tiring affair which they won 2-1. Newcastle are seven points above Everton in the table, and at 15/4 they just can’t be ignored.
The First Goalscorer: Peter Crouch for Stoke City at West Bromwich Albion at 7/1
Stoke have a fantastic head-to-head record against West Bromwich Albion, and might be a decent bet at 12/5. While it has traditionally been at home where Stoke have been fiercely hard to beat, this year their away record has been they key to another hugely successful year. They are eighth in the league with three wins on the spin.
Peter Crouch is still a massive part of how the Potters play. The 6’7” forward has bagged nine goals this year, but four of them have come in his last six games. He is curiously skilful for such a tall player and could be the man to cement Stoke’s place in the top half.
Arsenal vs. West Ham United Odds and Pick
By William Duncan
Goal.com
Arsenal booked their place in the semi-finals of the FA Cup with an impressive win over Manchester United at Old Trafford on Monday.
This weekend, though, Premier League points are the primary objective for Arsene Wenger's side as they play host to an out-of-sorts West Ham United on Saturday (11 a.m. ET, NBC Sports Network).
The Gunners have won their last seven league matches on home turf and are understandably chalked up at -250 favorites with the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook to claim another three points against the Hammers this weekend.
West Ham have picked up just four points from their last six Premier League matches away from Upton Park, while Sam Allardyce's side have won just one of their last 11 league fixtures.
With that in mind, it is little surprise that the visitors can be backed at a chunky +700 with Westgate. A draw is priced at +375.
Wenger's men have led at halftime in each of their last six Premier League matches on home soil and theres a good chance to do that again, and offshore books have them priced at -120 to lead at the break.
However, it is worth noting that Arsenal went on to claim maximum points from each of those previous six games, and, therefore, the +110 odds for Arsenal to lead at both half-time and full-time appears to be supremely generous here.
Wenger has targeted a top-two finish for his side in the top flight this season and, if that ambition is to be realized, the 65-year-old French boss knows that nothing less than a victory will suffice at the Emirates this weekend.
Arsenal certainly boast plenty of attacking talent with strikers Danny Welbeck, Olivier Giroud and Alexis Sanchez all in fine form ahead of this clash.
The +125 odds on Arsenal -1.5 goals offered in Vegas is tempting with that in mind, but it is worth noting that the selection would have cashed in just two of Arsenal's last eight matches in all competitions, with the Gunners becoming more adept at keeping things tight and winning by a single goal margin.
Therefore, bettors are instead advised to play safe and snap up the juicy +110 for the Gunners to lead at both half-time and full-time against West Ham United on Saturday.
Goal.com best best bet: Arsenal to lead at half-time and full-time