Premier League Best Bets - Week 32
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
Vegasinsider.com
Chelsea’s 2-1 win against Stoke City at the weekend means they need five wins from their last eight games to guarantee winning the league. The Blues are now 1/25 to claim their fifth English title with an Arsenal side who have won their last seven consecutive legue games the closest challengers at 20/1.
But it is at the bottom where things are really looking interesting. Wins at the weekend for Leicester, QPR and Sunderland sent shivers down the spines of Hull City and Aston Villa fans. Just seven points separate the bottom six in the league. QPR’s fixture list means they are the favourites to go down at 1/4. Next come fellow-promoted sides Leicester (1/3) and Burnley (4/6). Hull are 6/4 with Sunderland and Aston Villa both priced up at 11/4.
Let's handicap Week 32 of the Premier League.
The Outsider: Chelsea to win by one goal at Queens Park Rangers at 12/15
The nature of the ‘outsider’ in this is the price, rather than backing Chelsea who are 2/5 to win this West London derby. This is an unusual fixture in that, beyond any situations in the league, it matters far more to QPR than to Chelsea. The Hoops have long been in Chelsea’s shadow and for their fans this is an opportunity to get one over on their illustrious neighbours.
Since 2008 these teams have played each other eight times: the results have been (Chelsea first) 1-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-0, 6-1, 0-0, 1-0, 2-1. So only once have Chelsea found it easy against a QPR side who are usually pretty easy to play against away from home. Chelsea’s performances have not been great recently - all their last five league wins have come by one goal. QPR’s huge level of motivation for this game means that trend is unlikely to be bucked, but Jose Mourinho’s men should have just enough to move three points closer to the title.
The First Goalscorer: Wayne Rooney for Manchester United vs Manchester City at 5/1
The biggest game of the weekend is a fascinating one from a punting perspective. Going on the head-to-head record, which matters more in derby matches, City look the bet at 15/8; however on current form you’d be all over United at narrow 13/8 favourites. There is a strong case to be made for either side: United have been excellent lately while City’s season is drifting painfully. On the other hand City arguably still have a stronger squad.
This leaves me to conclude that a draw is probably the best bet in the match result market, but there might be more value to be found in backing Wayne Rooney to break the deadlock at 5/1. United’s good recent form has coincided with Rooney playing a lone-striker role, and he has scored seven in his last ten games. There should be goals in this game, and Rooney looks a good shout to continue his excellent record against City.