EPL Best Bets - Week 33
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Chelsea took the cliché about winning while playing badly being the mark of champions to its limit last weekend. In a fiercely-contested game with neighbours QPR Chelsea had just one shot on target. It came from Cesc Fabregas in the 88th minute. And it went in, winning the game for Chelsea and putting the Blues seven points clear of Arsenal with a game in hand. They are 1/50 to win the league.
With Arsenal and the two Manchester clubs looking almost certain to take the other Champions League spots, it is at the bottom of the Premier League where the action looks most interesting. Leicester’s resurgence continued with a win at West Brom, while fellow Midlanders Aston Villa lifted themselves further from danger with a shock win at Tottenham.
Let's handicap Week 33 of the Premier League and the FA Cup.
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
The Banker: Arsenal to win to nil vs. Reading at 10/11
There are two other big English games happening this weekend: the FA Cup semi-finals. The first takes place on Saturday as Championship side Reading meet Arsenal. Arsenal should have no problems here. They struggled against Wigan and Hull in the latter stages of the FA Cup last year, but the Gunners have improved beyond all recognition since then. Arsenal have won 16 of their last 18 games in all competitions. Nine of those wins to nil, and arguably all those victories have come against better attacks than Reading.
Reading are a fairly poor side in the Championship. They lie 18th out of 24 and are without a win in six. They have scored just twice in their last four games. However with Steve Clarke as their manager they will set up defensively and might not be too easy to break down. But it is hard to see them getting on the scoresheet, and Arsenal to nil at 10/11 seems a fair bet.
The Solid Bet: Leicester City to beat Swansea City at 6/5
Leicester’s great escape is on. They came from behind twice to win at West Brom 3-2 last weekend, and a home game against a team with nothing much to play for in Swansea City looks the perfect fixture for the Foxes’ revival to continue. Leicester have won just six games all season, but they won last time out at the King Power Stadium, seeing off West Ham by a goal to nil.
And they are boosted by an injury crisis at Swansea. Bafetimbi Gomis, who has done a good job replacing Wilfried Bony up front for the Jacks, is injured. With Jefferson Montero and Tom Carroll also out, it is hard to see where the goals are going to come from for Swansea. These teams’ contrasting motivations makes 6/5 Leicester look a good bet.
The Outsider: Chelsea to draw with Manchester United at 12/5
Chelsea need 11 points to win the league. And if they pass through their next two games - Man Utd at home and Arsenal away - without defeat, surely any lingering prospect of the Blues blowing the title would be gone. Chelsea have been out of form, but getting results, for weeks now. With Diego Costa injured and only Eden Hazard performing well of Chelsea’s attacking players, Mourinho’s first instinct here will be to stop United from scoring.
Anything but an away win would also virtually end any chance United have of stealing the title from Chelsea. Chelsea have the experience to negotiate these massive games, and a draw would be a decent result for them. United have drawn 7 of their 15 Premier League away games this year. There are no harder trips than Stamford Bridge, but a good recent run puts them in a good position to at least get a point.
The First Goalscorer: Glenn Murray for Crystal Palace vs West Bromwich Albion at 9/2
Part of the reason for Crystal Palace’s renaissance under Alan Pardew has been the re-introduction of Glenn Murray at centre-forward. Murray, a traditional big centre-forward type, was instrumental in Palace’s promotion two years ago, but has been hampered by injuries since. The Eagles have won their last four games and, if their run continues, will finish in the top half of the table.
West Brom, meanwhile, are right back in trouble following home defeats to QPR and Leicester. Murray has scored six in his last six Premier League games, and looks a solid bet to continue his form at 9/2.