EPL Best Bets - Week 35
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Chelsea’s 3-1 win at Leicester City on Wednesday night put the Blues one win away from claiming their fifth English title in their history. They have been the best side in the Premier League this season by a distance and will be fully deserving of their title, whether they win it this weekend or later. ‘Boring boring Chelsea’ sung the away end sarcastically as they scored three in the second half to move on to 80 points.
With Arsenal and the two Manchester clubs almost certain to take up the other Champions League spaces, the bottom of the Premier League is where the interest now lies. QPR and Burnley surely need wins this weekend to keep alive any realistic hopes of survival. Hull gained a valuable 1-0 win over Liverpool to keep their heads above water, meaning it is Sunderland who currently take up the last spot in the bottom three.
Let's handicap Week 35 of the Premier League.
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
The Banker: Over 2.5 goals in Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City at 4/7
In the fixture between these sides at the Etihad Stadium, Sergio Aguero scored four on his own, and the fact that both sides have little to play for suggests we could be in for a glut of goals at White Hart Lane. The last seven games between these teams have seen scorelines of 5-1, 3-2, 2-1, 1-3, 6-0, 5-1 and 4-1, with Spurs losing all but the 3-1. In Sergio Aguero and Harry Kane, both teams have a striker capable of hitting the three-goal target on their own. City games this year have averaged 3.1 goals per game, while Spurs average the same - well above the normal rate in the Premier League.
At 4/7 these stats are factored into the prices, and bolder bettors may want to take 5/4 about over 3.5 goals, but everything seems to suggest that goals are a certainty.
The Solid Bet: Chelsea to win to nil against Crystal Palace at evens (1/1)
A few weeks ago, Chelsea fans would have been looking at this fixture with some trepidation. The Blues have been slightly dodgy at home of late, while Palace had just won four in a row. However, the Eagles have since lost consecutive games against West Brom and Hull, and a good season seems to be petering out a bit at the end.
Chelsea showed on Wednesday that they have the focus and the quality to get the job done come what may. In Chelsea’s four other title wins, they have won it at the first possibly opportunity, most memorably in 2010 when they dispatched Wigan 8-0 to beat Manchester United to the title. A similar scoreline is unlikely - Chelsea have scored just seven in their last six home games - but it would not be like them to leave it until next weekend to claim the title. A Chelsea win to nil is the most likely outcome, and this looks a good bet at evens.
The First Goalscorer: Dame N’Doye for Hull City against Arsenal at 17/2
Hull are seen as one of the more defensive teams in the Premier League, and while this is largely justified, they do tend to be more adventurous at home to the top sides. They scored two at home to Chelsea and deserved more than one against Liverpool.
And in Dame N’Doye, they may have found the goalscoring striker they have so badly needed all season. N’Doye was excellent in his side’s 2-0 win at Crystal Palace, where he scored both goals and has already scored five since his January move to the Premier League. Arsenal may be demoralised by the quick end to their title push, and have little to play for.