EPL Best Bets - Week 7
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
The two big derby matches in the Premier League last weekend, Liverpool vs. Everton and Arsenal vs. Spurs, both ended 1-1, meaning comfortable wins for Chelsea and Manchester City strengthened the sense that it will be those two fighting it out for the Premier League crown.
Chelsea were excellent in a 3-0 win over Aston Villa, while Manchester City won 4-2 at Hull, although there was some concern for City as they surrendered an early 2-0 lead to the Tigers. Manchester United got back to winning ways over West Ham despite Wayne Rooney's red card, while there were also wins for Southampton, Crystal Palace and West Bromwich Albion.
Let's handicap Week 7 of the Premier League.
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
The Banker: Swansea City to beat Newcastle United at 10/11
The pressure on Newcastle boss Alan Pardew is possibly the biggest I've ever seen in English football. Fan protests, banners at games demanding his resignation and a dreadful run of results in 2014 have resulted in a poisonous atmosphere around the club. The stats really are shocking. This calendar year they have won five, drawn four and lost 16. At that rate over a 38-game season, Newcastle would end up with 29 points, which would, in most years, leave you bottom of the table. In that run they have lost 3-0 and 4-0 four times each.
Swansea have had a very good start to the season and their home record has always been good against teams below them. Wilfried Bony is back from suspension, and their solid backline, commanded by Wales captain Ashley Williams, should have few problems against Newcastle's blunt attack. Last year there were a few problems for the Jacks, with Michael Laudrup losing the dressing-room and a Europa League run to deal with. But under their former centre-back Garry Monk the good times are back in South Wales.
The Solid Bet: Manchester City -1.5 at Aston Villa at 13/10
Aston Villa made a great start to the season with three wins and a draw, but have since been brought back down to earth against the big boys, with Chelsea and Arsenal both beating them 3-0. However the warning signs were there throughout that good start. In those four matches Villa had just six shots on target, and their shares of possession were 38%, 40%, 45% and 26%. They will again be missing their inspiration skipper Ron Vlaar against Man City, and this significantly weakens the hosts. City just tear weak defences apart and the win over Hull suggested that they are getting back to their attacking best.
Edin Dzeko and Sergio Aguero look set to start up front together again, and this was a combination that worked fantastically at the KC Stadium. Over their last 12 matches against Villa, they have won six of them by two goals or more, and 13/10 is value on them to repeat that.
The Outsider: Southampton to win at Tottenham Hotspur at 5/2
The main story of this game is Mauricio Pochettino facing Southampton for the first time since leaving them in the summer. After his departure, the Saints went on to sell five crucial players, but have bounced back commendably under Ronald Koeman. They are second in the table, with 13 points from six games - five points above Pochettino's new charges. Graziano Pelle and Dusan Tadic have proved to be inspired signings from Koeman's old club, Feyenoord. Morgan Schneiderlin, despite openly pushing for a move to Spurs in the summer, has buckled back down on the South Coast and has been inspirational.
Spurs made ten changes for their Europa League tie with Besiktas, and they put in an encouraging performance at Arsenal to draw 1-1. However the Lilywhites have now gone four games without a win in the league, and have lost their last two at home, without scoring. Some of the problems from Andre Villas-Boas's disastrous reign still linger: lots of players of similar ability, too ponderous in possession and the lack of a cutting edge. Spurs will eventually do well under Pochettino, but it will take time, and Southampton can take advantage of Spurs's work in progress.
The First Goalscorer: Diafra Sakho for West Ham United v QPR at 6/1
All the headlines at West Ham over the summer were about the big money signing of Enner Valencia, who impressed for Ecuador in the World Cup. And while he has looked a good purchase, an even better buy may well be Diafra Sakho. Bought for just £3.5 million from French club Metz, Sakho had never played top flight football before this year. However with 39 league goals in his last two seasons in France, this is clearly a man who knows where the goal is.
He has made a flying start in East London with three goals in four starts, and his pace and power will be a huge concern to a slow and tired looking QPR defence. The Hoops have looked pretty poor since coming back up from the Championship, and apart from Charlie Austin, there is little there to get excited about. West Ham have not been as good as they are now for several years, and they look the side most likely to win on Sunday.
Aston Villa vs. Manchester City Betting Preview and Pick
By: William Duncan
Goal.com
After suffering back-to-back defeats against Arsenal and Chelsea, Aston Villa will be hoping to get their Premier League campaign back on track this weekend, but Paul Lambert’s men face yet another stiff test when they play host to Manchester City on Saturday (12:30 p.m. ET, NBC).
Prior to those defeats against the London clubs, Paul Lambert’s side were unbeaten in the top flight and had just recorded an impressive 1-0 victory over Liverpool at Villa Park.
It is a return to that kind of form that the Villa faithful will be hoping for this weekend, and MGM Resorts prices the home side win at +600 odds.
Manuel Pellegrini’s side were impressive in a 4-2 victory over Hull City last weekend before being held to a 1-1 draw against Roma in the Champions League on Tuesday night.
However, it is worth noting that City have won just two of their last seven matches in all competitions, and Pellegrini will be hoping that his side can produce a polished performance at Villa Park this weekend.
MGM Resorts lists the defending Premier League champions as warm favorites at just -220 odds, while the draw is available at +300.
Argentine striker Sergio Aguero has been at his best for the defending Premier League champions in recent weeks, notching the opening goal against both Hull City and Roma, and the 26-year-old striker will undoubtedly pose a significant threat to the hosts this weekend.
Outside of Las Vegas, Aguero is chalked up at +320 to break the deadlock for the third match in succession by scoring first at Villa Park, while the Argentina international is -125 to find the net at any time.
Villa certainly look vulnerable at the back, having leaked six goals in their last two matches, and Lambert will be looking for a more solid performance from his side this weekend.
City, though, pose a real threat in the final third and will come into this match in a confident mood, having scored an impressive 12 goals in their last three matches in all competitions.
Lambert’s men have trailed at the interval in each of their last two matches, and Pellegrini’s men look outstanding value at even money to have a halftime lead at Villa Park this weekend.
City have kept just one clean sheet in their last seven matches in all competitions and, with that in mind, the 8-to-11 odds (-137.50) for both teams to score also looks to be a solid selection here.
However, City can be trusted to exploit the home side’s defensive deficiencies again this weekend and, therefore, gamblers are advised to take a chance on Pellegrini’s men leading at halftime at a generous even money on Saturday.
Goal.com best bet: Man City to lead at halftime for even money
Premier League Betting Preview
By Soccer Authority
Covers.com
This weekend’s card of Premier League fixtures are quite unique as they are sandwiched in between Champions League, Europa League and Euro 2016 international qualifiers. It’s a very testing time for Premier League players, particularly those who are at the top clubs and will be involved in domestic, European and international football. It presents a huge juggling act for the Premier League’s top coaches.
Super Sunday
Rested United ready for Everton
It’s great to have a real ‘super Sunday’ back this week. Kicking things off at noon, is Manchester United hosting Everton. It’s quite an intriguing encounter as United will come into this game having played no European football during the week, unlike Everton who will have made the long trip to Russia.
Everton manager Roberto Martinez has shown a clear desire to make the most of their Europa campaign and this could hinder their chances at Old Trafford this week. It will also be interesting to see how United do without their skipper Wayne Rooney. The extra break should get Man United over the line in this one.
Lack of depth could trouble Arsenal
The main event this Sunday has to be the big London derby between Chelsea and Arsenal. Both teams were victorious in their midweek Champions League games. However, Arsenal are hampered by injuries and simply do not have strength in depth to win this game. It should however make for an exciting encounter, but Arsenal’s main job will be to contain Diego Costa. Although he didn’t score midweek, the chances he created and the space he found against Sporting Lisbon was huge!
Last chance saloon
A fascinating encounter this week has to be Swansea versus Newcastle. This truly is ‘last chance saloon’ for Newcastle manager Alan Pardew. The Magpies are second from bottom and most fans thought Pardew would be gone after last week’s defeat to Stoke. The politics of this game are huge. Swansea are cruising in fifty place and it’s do or die for Newcastle. Expect a belter!
Dynamic duo
Watch out for the Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero and Edin Dzeko this weekend as they travel to Aston Villa. Expect both players to continue their destruction of Premier League defences. Aston Villa are not the same team without Ron Vlaar at the back and up against the bigger teams in previous week’s they have really struggled. Do not be surprised if both Aguero and Dzeko are on the score sheet this week.