Spain vs. Paraguay: What Bettors Need To Know
By LARRY O'CONNOR
Odds: Spain (-190), Paraguay (+761), Draw (+302); Over/under (2)
With one goal between them in their respective Round of 16 matches, this encounter doesn't appear to be a potential powder keg of offensive pyrotechnics. Yet the masses are bullish on Spain to reach the semifinals, and for good reason.
The Spaniards have proven strike power in David Villa (four goals) and, to a lesser degree, Fernando Torres, with a creative midfield that is second to none in Xavi Hernandez and Andres Iniesta with Arsenal's Cesc Fabregas waiting in the wings.
Paraguay’s offensive might? Not so much. La Albirroja topped Group F by scoring only three goals and needed penalty kicks to dispatch a relentless Japan side in a grueling 0-0 draw. The South Americans’ fortuitous turn came on the heels of a goalless draw against New Zealand in the team’s final group match.
Paraguay’s forte is bottling up opponents and grabbing the odd opportunistic goal. Spain’s defense, anchored by three-time World Cup keeper Iker Casillas, is not known for granting opportunities.
Tactical talk
Spain coach Vincente del Bosque reportedly is still banking on struggling Torres (no goals in four matches), who may be feeling the effects of knee surgery three months ago. The prolific Liverpool striker was subbed in the 58th minute of the team's 1-0 triumph over Portugal and the insertion of Atletico Bilbao’s 6-foot-4 striker Fernando Llorente appeared to improve Spain’s attack.
The Red Fury’s depth is such that the potential loss of midfielder Javi Martinez (ankle) and defender Raul Albiol (right leg injury) for the quarterfinal tussle will barely cause a titter. Meanwhile Paraguay may be without central midfielder Aureliano Torres, who hasn't played since the team's 2-0 win over Slovakia June 20.
Paraguay’s decidedly defensive posture has yielded three consecutive shutouts and since-departed Italy were the only side to nick the South Americans for a goal in a 1-1 draw to open Group F play.
Also tellingly of Paraguay’s defense-first strategy is that strikers Roque Santa Cruz, Nelson Valdez and Oscar Cardozo have yet to register a goal.
Goalless is the name
Two of the pair’s three previous encounters -- a 2002 friendly and a group match at France 1998 -- resulted in goalless draws. Spain bested Paraguay, 3-1, in the first round at Korea/Japan World Cup in 2002.
Players to watch
Paraguay - Antolin Alcaraz
The Club Brugge stopper is owner of one of the team’s modest three goals in the tournament, but is more known for his savvy defending. After missing the team’s 0-0 draw to New Zealand, the center back played the entire 120 minutes in the dour 0-0 Round of 16 stalemate with Japan and will be at the forefront of Paraguay’s attempts to stop Villa and Torres.
Spain - Xavi
The midfield maestro is the table-setter of Spain’s attack, which while not prolific is very precise. The Barcelona star is adept at carving through opposition defenses with well-weighted through balls as his 80 percent pass completion rate attests. His yeoman-like work will prove crucial in breaking through Paraguay’s seemingly impenetrable defensive wall.
Statistically speaking
Spain midfielder Xabi Alonso is tied with Argentina’s Javier Masherano with a tournament-high five tackles in gaining possession. The holding midfielder’s tackles total is tied with six others for tournament-best....Alonso’s yellow card in the Round of 16 victory over Portugal was Spain’s first of the tournament. .... Paraguay goalkeeper Justo Villar has played 327 consecutive minutes without conceding a goal.
The setting
Temps will dip from 52 degrees to 46 Fahrenheit during the match under clear skies, which is optimum football weather. Unlike the chopped up Port Elizabeth Stadium pitch in the shock Brazil-Netherlands affair, the Ellis Park Stadium surface should be firm.