Rory made heavy Honda 'chalk'
By Sportsbook.ag
Tournament: The Honda Classic
Date: Feb. 26 - Mar. 1
Venue: PGA National Resort and Spa
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
The players head east this week to sunny Florida, which is actually supposed to be rainy and windy this weekend, to compete in the Honda Classic; an event which was founded in 1972. It has been held at PGA National since 2007 and has become much harder as a result with winners having single-digits scores in six of the eight years compared to a double-digit victor in the previous 11 seasons.
The reason for this is that the course is set up to host majors and has one of the toughest stretches of holes on the tour with the infamous “Bear Trap” at 15, 16 and 17. The par-70, 7,140-yard course will be hosting a strong field this year as 15 of the top-25 players from the OWGR are attending and the first sighting of world No. 1 on U.S. soil since September will be the biggest story as he is a past champion here and has been on a tear over on the European Tour.
Defending his title will be Russell Henley who won in an exciting four-player playoff against Russell Knox, Rory McIlroy and Ryan Palmer last season. The eight-under score that Henley posted was the highest for a victor at this event since Ernie Els came away with the trophy after a score of six-under in 2008. With the fields getting tougher, let’s take a look at a few players who are poised to have a big upcoming week.
Golfers to Bet:
Rory McIlroy (3/1): There is no debating who the top golfer in the world is right now as McIlroy has finished as the winner or runner-up in eight of his past eleven starts. He has not placed worse than second since the BMW Championship in September where he earned an eighth-place spot. This will be his debut this season in the states as he has been lighting it up over in Europe with a tour-best stroke average of 67 as he hits 86.1% of GIR, which would be by far the best mark on the PGA tour. He also continues to cream the ball (307.7 yards per) across the pond and has a great track record in this event with a victory in 2012 and a playoff loss last year. He should have no issues being at the top of the leaderboard all weekend.
Graeme McDowell (29/1): McDowell has had an up-and-down season over in Europe since his third-place finish at the HSBC Champions back in early September, sandwiching a top-10 at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic with two events where he ended up worse than 35th. His previous play at this course should help him get back on track, though, as he has three top-10 finishes here in the last four years. He tends to play well when the weather gets tough and is in line for a nice performance this week.
Keegan Bradley (25/1):Despite making all four of his cuts this year, Bradley wasn’t playing at his usual skill level as his best showing was a 17th at the Waste Management Open. He began to look much more comfortable last week at the Northern Trust Open with a fourth-place standing after netting two 68’s on Friday and Sunday. He’s turning it on just at the right moment as he heads to a course in which he has placed 12th, 4th and 12th in the last three starts. Expect him to use his big-stick (301.5 yards per drive, 25th on tour) to make a run at his first PGA win since the summer of 2012.
Brian Harman (210/1): Harman has made 5-of-7 cuts this year and has two top-25 finishes to his credit thus far. He has been struggling in the past three events, though, with a scoring average of 72.0 in his 10 rounds as he is coming off a missed cut last week. Still, he is riding a strong 2014 campaign and is the record holder at this course with a round of 61 back in 2012 when he finished 12th. His putting (0.55 strokes gained putting, 28th on tour) and ability out of the sand (68.9% sand save, 11th on tour) should keep him in contention at a course where he is plenty comfortable.
William McGirt (240/1): McGirt has been doing well this season and is trending upwards since a missed cut at the Humana Challenge. He jumped from 30th at the Waste Management Open to 21st at the AT&T Pebble Beach and finally had a nice showing (14th) last week in the Northern Trust Open. Overall on the year, he ranks in the top-50 on tour in driving accuracy (67%, 29th on tour), GIR (71%, 38th on tour) and scoring average (70.34, 29th on tour) and should be able to continue his success in Florida.
Honda Classic Betting Odds
Rory McIlroy 3/1
Dustin Johnson 13/1
Justin Rose 20/1
Keegan Bradley 25/1
Brooks Koepka 27/1
Rickie Fowler 27/1
Sergio Garcia 27/1
Graeme McDowell 29/1
Martin Kaymer 29/1
Lee Westwood 30/1
Ryan Palmer 30/1
Harris English 35/1
Patrick Reed 35/1
Graham Delaet 45/1
Paul Casey 45/1
Phil Mickelson 45/1
Russell Henley 50/1
Sang-Moon Bae 55/1
Billy Horschel 60/1
Charl Schwartzel 60/1
Chris Kirk 60/1
Louis Oosthuizen 60/1
Nick Watney 65/1
Zach Johnson 70/1
Justin Thomas 80/1
Robert Streb 80/1
Victor Dubuisson 80/1
Jamie Donaldson 90/1
Luke Donald 95/1
Russell Knox 100/1
Charles Howell III 110/1
Daniel Berger 120/1
Boo Weekley 130/1
Seung-Yul Noh 130/1
Will MacKenzie 130/1
Alex Prugh 140/1
Camilo Villegas 140/1
Freddie Jacobson 140/1
Ian Poulter 140/1
Jason Dufner 140/1
Scott Stallings 140/1
Brendan Steele 160/1
Angel Cabrera 200/1
Francesco Molinari 200/1
Marc Leishman 200/1
Retief Goosen 200/1
Brian Harman 210/1
Chris Stroud 220/1
Rory Sabbatini 220/1
Tony Finau 220/1
Jason Kokrak 230/1
Jhonattan Vegas 230/1
Joost Luiten 230/1
Blayne Barber 240/1
Daniel Summerhays 240/1
Stephen Gallacher 240/1
William McGirt 240/1
Brendon de Jonge 250/1
Carlos Ortiz 250/1
Charlie Beljan 250/1
Chesson Hadley 250/1
Ernie Els 250/1
George McNeill 250/1
Michael Thompson 250/1
Shawn Stefani 250/1
Vijay Singh 250/1
Brian Stuard 300/1
David Lingmerth 300/1
Jerry Kelly 300/1
John Peterson 300/1
Jonas Blixt 300/1
Lucas Glover 300/1
Patrick Rodgers 300/1
Ben Martin 350/1
Billy Hurley III 350/1
Jason Bohn 350/1
Luke Guthrie 350/1
Scott Piercy 350/1
Spencer Levin 350/1
Thomas Bjorn 350/1
Andrew Svoboda 400/1
Cameron Tringale 400/1
David Hearn 400/1
Derek Fathauer 400/1
Morgan Hoffmann 400/1
Scott Langley 400/1
Erik Compton 450/1
Matt Every 450/1
Nicholas Thompson 450/1
Padraig Harrington 450/1
Alex Cejka 500/1
Andres Romero 500/1
Bo Van Pelt 500/1
Jeff Overton 500/1
Kyle Reifers 500/1
Ricky Barnes 500/1
Robert Garrigus 500/1
Ryo Ishikawa 500/1
Zac Blair 500/1
Andres Gonzales 550/1
Ben Crane 550/1
Carl Pettersson 550/1
Chad Campbell 550/1
Colt Knost 550/1
D.A. Points 550/1
Danny Lee 550/1
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 550/1
John Huh 550/1
Y.E. Yang 550/1
Mark Wilson 600/1
Martin Flores 600/1
Adam Hadwin 650/1
Chad Collins 650/1
David Toms 650/1
Fabian Gomez 650/1
Hudson Swafford 650/1
Justin Hicks 650/1
Ken Duke 650/1
Kevin Kisner 650/1
Max Homa 650/1
Sean O'Hair 650/1
Stewart Cink 650/1
Andrew Putnam 750/1
Brian Davis 750/1
Brice Garnett 750/1
Derek Ernst 750/1
Dudley Hart 750/1
J J Henry 750/1
Jamie Lovemark 750/1
Jim Herman 750/1
Jim Renner 750/1
Jon Curran 750/1
Mike Weir 750/1
Oscar Fraustro 750/1
Paul Scaletta 750/1
Robert Allenby 750/1
Ryan Armour 750/1
Scott Brown 750/1
Steve Wheatcroft 7 50/1
Sung-Joon Park 750/1
Tim Wilkinson 750/1
Tom Hoge 750/1
Woody Austin 750/1
Honda Classic Preview and Picks
By Matt Fargo
Playbook.com
The PGA Tour ended its west coast swing last week with James Hahn winning the Northern Trust Open in a playoff over Paul Casey and Dustin Johnson. They head east for the Florida swing as it is time to start gearing up for the Masters which is coming up quick, just seven weeks away. This week it is The Honda Classic from the Champion Course at PGA National which is a Jack Nicklaus re-design and this will mark the ninth year it has hosted the event.
In 2010 and 2011, PGA National was ranked as the hardest par-70 course on tour of the non-Major layouts as players averaged 2.54 shots over par. Three years ago, it was the second hardest of the par-70 non-Majors and in 2013, it again ranked as the hardest par 70, averaging +1.32 shots over par. Last year however things were a lot different as scoring was an all-time low at just 0.48 over par. There was no real rhyme or reason behind it and we should see it revert back to difficult status.
This is true test of golf and a lot of the players who have won here have gone on to bigger and better things. Since 1990, five different winners of the tournament have gone on to later win a major championship in their careers and twice, the winner has gone on to win a major in the same year. Seven years ago, it was Y.E. Yang who brought home the over $1 million prize and he went on to win the PGA Championship as he held off Tiger Woods in a classic duel on Sunday.
We have a very strong field in Palm Beach Gardens which is typically the case for the Florida swing leadoff event. 16 of the top 25 players are in the field this week including Rory McIlroy, Martin Kaymer, Victor Dubuisson and Graeme McDowell who are all making their 2015 PGA Tour debuts. The 16 are an all-time high for the Honda Classic. Additionally, 28 of the top 50 are here. The forecast calls for the chance of rain throughout with heavy wind the first two days.
Justin Rose (+2,200) missed the cut in his first 2015 start at the Farmers but that can be solely attributed to a thumb injury that occurred right before the tournament when he fell. He is back to full health and he certainly is not intimidated by Rory. He did not start here in 2014 and 2011 but his other three starts at the Honda since 2010 resulted in a T4, T5 and solo third.
While McIlroy has a win and a solo second the last three years, Keegan Bradley (+2,500) has been the most consistent over the last three years. After missing the cut in 2011, he has gone T12, T4 and T12 the last three years so we should see him do well again. He has not missed a cut all season long and he has three top fives including a T4 last week at the Northern Trust Open.
Graeme McDowell (+3,000) is making his 2015 PGA Tour debut and it comes at a place he has played very well at. He has never missed a cut in six career Honda Classic starts which includes a run the last five years. A poor weekend pushed him to T46 last year but the three previous years resulted in a T9, T9 and T6. That includes a pair of 64's so he has the ability to go low here.
Graham DeLaet (+5,000) is way overdue for a breakout victory and why not have it come here. He was in contention last week at Riviera but a costly double bogey on No. 2 on Sunday was something he could not recover from and settled for a T8. It was his second top ten in three starts and his 16th over the last three years. He has been up and down here but finished T9 in his last start in 2013.
Chris Stroud (+20,000) is a massive longshot this week but there is a ton of value in this number. Over the last five years, only five players have made the cut every year at the Honda Classic and Stroud is one of those that includes a T12, T13 and T9 the last three years. After missing the cut in his first three 2015 events, he has bounced back with a T45 and a T30 the last two weeks.
Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the Honda Classic - All for 1 Unit
Justin Rose (+2,200)
Keegan Bradley (+2,500)
Graeme McDowell (+3,000)
Graham DeLaet (+5,000)
Chris Stroud (+20,000)