THE PLAYERS - Golfers to Bet
By: StatFox.com
The TOUR heads to Florida for the unofficial “fifth major”, as the top golfers in the world will be competing in THE PLAYERS this weekend. Brian Harman is the guy that came away with the win in last week’s Wells Fargo Championship. That was hardly the talk of the tournament, though. The real buzz was that Dustin Johnson returned from a back injury to finish in second. That injury kept him out of The Masters, so expect Johnson to be eager to make up for lost time. Jason Day, meanwhile, is the defending champion of this event. He won last year by shooting 15-under to defeat Kevin Chappell by four strokes. Rickie Fowler was the winner in 2015, which is also worth noting. Fowler has never won a real major, but it was a huge deal when he won this one. One thing that should excite everybody is that this is a loaded field that will be competing this weekend. All of the top golfers in the Official World Golf Rankings will be out there, so fans will get to see guys like Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama, and Jordan Spieth. They’ll also be able to watch both Sergio Garcia and Justin Rose, who battled it out in a playoff at The Masters just about a month ago. With that out of the way, let’s now take a look at some of the best value plays this weekend:
Dustin Johnson (7-to-1) - Heading into The Masters, Dustin Johnson had won three straight tournaments and came in third prior to that winning streak. When he returned from the back injury that kept him out of the major, Johnson shot a nine-under to tie for second at the Wells Fargo Championship last week. Johnson did not look like he was suffering at all in that event, and it was promising to see that he was not very rusty. With him still looking like he is in a groove, it’s hard not to back him at 7-to-1. Johnson is the best golfer in the world and will be eager to win his first ever PLAYERS.
Rickie Fowler (20-to-1) - Rickie Fowler might be known as one of the better players to have never won a major, but he has certainly performed at a very high level in THE PLAYERS. Fowler won this tournament back in 2015, shooting a 12-under to defeat both Sergio Garcia and Kevin Kisner in a playoff. It was the biggest win of his career, and it was not his only impressive outing in this event. Fowler also tied for second here back in 2012, when he shot an 11-under and lost by two strokes. Something about this event brings out the best in him, and his 20-to-1 odds are certainly favorable.
Matt Kuchar (50-to-1) - Matt Kuchar has not yet won a tournament this year, but the 38-year-old is a great value at 50-to-1 this weekend. Kuchar has still played some fantastic golf this season, finishing inside the top-five twice on the year. One of those times was at The Masters, where Kuchar shot a five-under to tie for fourth. He also happens to be pretty good at THE PLAYERS, as evidenced by his win here in 2012. It wouldn’t be shocking if he recaptured some of that magic on Sunday.
Phil Mickelson (55-to-1) - Mickelson might not be getting any insane odds, but 55-to-1 can pay out rather nicely. It’s also not much of a risk considering the fact that you can put a very small play on it and still come away with a big weekend. Mickelson is obviously no slouch either. He won this tournament back in 2007, and he has played rather well on the season. Even though Mickelson hasn’t won a tournament this year, he has finished inside the top 10 on three different occasions. He still has game, and people should not be afraid to back him.
THE PLAYERS Championship Preview
By Matt Fargo
Covers.com
Brian Harman picked up his second career victory last week at the Wells Fargo Championship and he heads to TPC Sawgrass along with a loaded field for THE PLAYERS Championship. This is typically the strongest field of the PGA Tour season and that is the case again this year with a lot of that having to do with the money at stake. The $10.5 million purse is the highest for a non-Major even though it proclaims itself as the fifth Major.
There have been some very exciting finishes over the years but 2016 was not one of them. Jason Day tied the Stadium Course record with an opening round 63 and hardly looked back as he headed into both Saturday and Sunday with a four-shot lead which was his ultimate winning margin at the end. He became just the fifth wire-to-wire winner in the history of THE PLAYERS Championship and he will look to become the first ever back-to-back champion.
This is the 36th year that TPC Sawgrass has hosted and it is a true test of all parts of the game. If you are looking for a bomber to win, do not even bother. The last time a winner was ranked in the top ten in driving distance was 2004 with Adam Scott. Conversely, six of the past 12 champions have been ranked in the top ten in driving accuracy. Every aspect of the game comes into play this week and for the first time in a long time, players will be seeing some different things.
After the 2016 tournament concluded, the Stadium Course went through a massive overhaul. One subtle change was the installation of TifEagle Bermuda grass greens to provide superior putting surfaces. Several of the greens were also expanded to provide more area for different hole locations. One major change was expanding the hazard between holes No. 6 and No. 7 but the biggest alteration was turning No. 12 into a drivable par 4, giving players options and risk-reward possibilities.
While a lot of the current regular stops on tour value experience, TPC Sawgrass and Augusta National are arguably the two biggest venues where experience matters the most. Check out this stat from the PGA Tour. The average number of starts before a victory here is slightly over seven so just like Augusta National, it takes a few years to win here, not including the 2002 win by Craig Perks. Last year for instance, this was the sixth start (three missed cuts) at TPC Sawgrass for Jason Day.
When you think of TPC Sawgrass, you think of the 17th island par three, arguably the scariest 130-something shot in golf. Typically, this is a shot the pros could hit blindfolded but when the pressure is on, it is a different story. It is definitely a risk-reward hole and getting out of there with a par is huge going into 18. Why? The 18th at Sawgrass is the second-toughest closing hole on tour going back to 1983. We have seen many PLAYERS won and lost on these final two holes and that is what it should all be about.
With this being such a prestigious tournament, the field is full of big names with 48 of the top 50 in the OWGR in play this week with Brandt Snedeker and Thomas Pieters not in attendance. Additionally, 12 past PLAYERS champions are here along with 32 Major winners. Prior to last year, the last time a winner won by more than two strokes was 2009 when Henrik Stenson won by four strokes over Ian Poulter. Hopefully we get back to that excitement in 2017 unless of course your golfer is possessing the big lead.
World No. 1 Dustin Johnson is the favorite at +655 followed closely by newlywed Rory McIlroy at +980 and Jordan Spieth being the last significant short chalk at +1,235. Hideki Matsuyama and Masters champion Sergio Garcia are both at +1,800 with Jon Rahm and 2015 PLAYERS champion Rickie Fowler both at +2,000. Defending champion Jason Day (+2,200), Justin Rose (+2,500) and Justin Thomas (+3,000) round out the top ten.
The Fifth Major - The PLAYERS Championship
By Brady Kannon
Covers.com
After another thrilling Masters back in April, The PGA Tour is heating up once again. It started with The Zurich Classic two weeks ago in New Orleans, tweaking the format and providing a very intriguing two person team play event. Last week, the excitement was provided by Eagle Point Golf Club for The Wells Fargo Championship. Substituting for Quail Hollow, Eagle Point turned out to be a gem that players and viewers loved alike. And now, with the second Major Championship of the season just five weeks down the road, we get The Players Championship to keep the momentum going.
Speaking of Majors, The PLAYERS is commonly referred to as "The 5th Major" as it truly is the biggest tournament the players face outside of the big four. Only The PGA Championship has arguably a better field in all of golf. Forty-eight of the top fifty ranked players in the world are here and seventy-six of the top one hundred. Other than Augusta National, TPC Sawgrass, the site of The Players Championship, is probably the most recognizable golf course in the world. A Pete Dye design with water on every hole and risk-reward scenarios that make for an exhilarating watch, golfers are tested physically, mentally, and in every facet of the game. Oh, and just to spice things up even more, it is a 10.5 million dollar purse with nearly 2 Million going to the winner.
TPC Sawgrass debuted in 1982. There has never been a repeat champion. The PLAYERS had always been played in March as a part of The Florida Swing but has since switched to May in an effort to avoid weather challenges in the Jacksonville, Florida area that are often present in early Spring. Since last year's edition, there have been more changes. The greens have been changed to a TifEagle Bermuda Grass and the 12th hole has been shortened to just over 300-yards, making it a tantalizing, drivable Par 4. Like the Major Championships, there is not really one glaring skill set that is always successful at TPC Sawgrass but rather it is a golf course that will make one do everything very well for four days. You can almost throw course form out as players who have won have also missed the cut on plenty of occasions. Rickie Fowler won The PLAYERS in 2015. He missed the cut the year before and did so again last season. It is one of the toughest courses the players face all year as well as one of the toughest at to predict a winner.
The Favorites
Dustin Johnson (+8.580 Pinnacle) Off of injury at The Masters, he very nearly won his fourth straight tournament last week in North Carolina. The PLAYERS hasn't been his best event as he's never finished in the Top 25 but he's never been playing better in his career either. He's number one on Tour in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, Greens in Regulation, and Bogey Avoidance. Number two in Hole Proximity and Par 4 Scoring.
Rory McIlroy (+11.600 Pinnacle) It seems like we haven't seen the man much lately. He's been married, he's switched to Taylor Made clubs, and yet he's strung together seven straight Top 10 finishes since last September. In his last three trips to The PLAYERS he's finished 12-8-and-6.
Jordan Spieth (+1748 Bookmaker) Spieth was very solid at The Masters before failing to put anything together on the final Sunday. He did very well in the team play event in New Orleans, finishing 4th. He finished 4th in his first ever PLAYERS three years ago but has missed the cut twice since.. which again, is very telling of the difficulty and of the randomness of results at TPC Sawgrass.
The Contenders
Sergio Garcia (+2050 Bookmaker) I can't wait to watch Sergio this week. How will The Masters Champion react this week, the first time we've seen him since? He has a beautiful track record at The PLAYERS, having won here in 2008 and recording another four Top 5 finishes. It will be interesting to see if he picks up where he left off or will a bit of a Masters hangover be present?
Jon Rahm (+2550 Bookmaker) I love how the young Spaniard plays with such passion, emotion, and gusto and so far it has provided nothing but remarkable success - but it will be interesting to see if that holds true at TPC Sawgrass which takes such a controlled effort and severely punishes the slightest slip in focus. Rahm is making his debut here and was also doing so at The Match Play, also played on a Pete Dye course with TifEagle Bermuda greens, when he took 2nd place.
Justin Rose (+3250 Bookmaker) It will be fun to see the return of Sergio and also of the man he beat in that playoff at Augusta, Justin Rose. I don't know if I've ever seen Justin Rose more confident on a golf course than as of late. As is typical of TPC Sawgrass, Rose' last four trips to town look like this; 19th-Cut-4th-Cut.
The Long Shots
Martin Kaymer (+6000 5Dimes) The efficient German machine has been very much that at The Players Championship as he has never missed a cut here in eight tries and won the big prize in 2014.
Branden Grace (+12000 5Dimes) Grace hasn't ever missed a cut here either but that is in only three visits. He does however have tremendous success to his name at another Pete Dye course, Harbour Town, the site of The RBC Heritage, where Grace's last three years have gone 11th-1st-and-7th.
William McGirt (+27500 5Dimes) McGirt has really been surging with confidence recently and it starts with his 9th place finish at The Match Play, another Pete Dye course. Next up The Masters where he even flirted with the lead before finishing 22nd. McGirt then went on to Dye's course at The RBC Heritage to take 3rd. His last three Players Championships have gone 43-Cut-Cut.
The Pick
Brooks Koepka (+4050 Bookmaker) Koepka can be a tough player to back when you look at his overall stats but he does hit the ball a mile, makes a ton of birdies, and is a very good putter. What leads me most to this pick however, is Koepka's recent form and recent form on Pete Dye courses. We start with his 9th place finish at The Match Play in March, a Dye course. He followed that up with an 11th at The Masters, a 2nd place at The Valero Texas Open, and then a 5th place two weeks ago in New Orleans, another Pete Dye course. This is his third trip to The PLAYERS finishing 35th last year and Cut in his debut. Koepka is from West Palm Beach and went to Florida State. I figure him to be well into the mix this Sunday afternoon in Ponte Vedra Beach, down the stretch at TPC Sawgrass.