The Ponies Are Still Running

Al Cimaglia: March 13-Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

March 13, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

Tonight the 0.20 Pick 4 at Cal Expo begins in Race 8. The sequence has a $30,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8

6-Cenalta Glory (9/2)-Comes off a rough trip versus better last week. Has a big shot to win if races back to 2/28 start when she drew off by 5 in 1:53. Drops and has won 10 of 25 at CalX, looks like a player at a square price.
7-Magnifique (2-1)-Has been trying hard and now drops in 3rd start off the bench. Team Plano entry should be in it from start to finish but won't offer any value.

Race 9

1-Bettor In The Bank (3-1)-Has been facing tougher and drops again looking for a picture. Kennedy's pick over #4 and winner of 23 out of 59 CalX starts might have found a spot to wake up.
2-Fox Valley Hoss (10-1)-Plano's choice over #3 has raced well versus better. Plano has had success with this 6-year-old in the past, using and hoping the morning line accurately represents the post time odds.
9-Bunkerhill Bill (7/2)-Has been in the hunt while racing up at NW3500 and now may be in a spot to seal the deal. There isn't much gate speed, Roberts will likely leave and could get the top rather easily. Should fare better at this level.

Race 10

5-Timetoplaythegame (3-1)-Beat 4 from this field last week off an advantageous trip. Kennedy's choice over #6, which he had driven to 2 straight wins, should be forwardly placed and is threat to win right back.
7-Mister Hat (7/2)-Plano left last week and couldn't hold on for the win. This time he could look to duck and come off cover. Mister needs the right trip and is camera shy but best to respect versus this crew.

Race 11

4-Stylemaster (10-1)-Offers a price and will need everything to fall in place but Plano can provide a sharp steer. Looking for this veteran to race close to the top and then make one big move down the lane.
5-Ethan Hanover (5/2)-Drops to the basement but it's hard to be confident because 11-year-old has trouble passing foes down the lane. Should be in the hunt but will also look to others with more value.
8-Sin Machqueen (6-1)-Has been off since 1/3 and tuned-up with a nice qualifier last week. 0-7 in Sacramento but is fresh and drops into a soft spot. Fits with this bunch as long as Cutting provides a smooth journey.

0.20 Pick 4

6,7/1,2,9/5,7/4,5,8
Total Bet=$7.20
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My Rebel Stakes Late Pick 4 Ticket

March 13, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

It gets serious Saturday at Oaklawn Park as promising 3-year-olds run in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, but that’s just part of an outstanding late Pick 4.

It starts in the eighth race with the Essex Handicap for older horses and follows with the Grade 2 Azeri for fillies and mares, the Rebel Stakes and a tremendous maiden race to end the day.

This week’s Pick 4 attempt goes with a 4x2x5x4 scenario for an $80 ticket.

Here’s a look at the main combatants in the headliner – the Rebel Stakes, which carries a $1 million purse:

Nadal: The Bob Baffert runner needs to answer the same question all 3-year-olds face: Can he get the distance. His maiden sprint at 6.5 furlongs showed what observers expected. He won in 1:15 4-5 and followed that up in the Grade 2 San Vicente, when he won by three-quarters after being eyeballed through fast fractions. Being by Blame and out of a Pulpit mare, it’s likely that Nadal can a distance but he faces his strongest test.

Basin: Steve Asmussen doesn’t seem to runout of starts, and this one makes his 1st since he romped in the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga in September. After losing his debut by a nose, he cruised in his next two. He’s bred to run long and on the front end. This is a tough task in his first one back, but he clearly has the talent.

Silver Prospector: Rallied well and was in plenty of time in the Grade 3 Southwest, and since his win in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November, he’s been good at his new running style. Asmussen has him in top form and he could get the dream trip, considering the amount of speed in this one.

Three Technique: Has been on a steady arch of improvement and ran a good second in the Smarty Jones. That was his first one around two turns and he could benefit from having had the quality start over this strip.

American Theorem: Was second in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes (named after his sire) and has been since September. Clearly he’s talented and ran a good race but is coming in off a long string of works only. He finished six lengths ahead of Storm the Creek, who came out of that race and won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Here’s a suggested play in the Oaklawn Park late Pick 4 on Saturday:
8) #1 Guest Suite, #2 Night Ops, #4 Bankit, #6 Snapper Sinclair.
9) #4 Lady Apple, #5 Serengeti Empress.
10) #1 Nadal, #3 Basin, #4 Silver Prospector, #6 Three Technique, #8 American Theorem.
11) #5 Cynical Girl, #6 Sacred Union, #10 Weekend Fun, #12 Tipsy Gal.

50-cent Pick 4 ticket: 1-2-4-6 with 4-5 with 1-3-4-6-8 with 5-6-10-12 ($80).
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Aqueduct - Race #3
Picks Notes
#8 Masons Friend MSw dropper took some money on debut then didn't do a lot of running, but this is the biggest drop in racing, and this is a very weak group too; look out.
#5 Whispering Rose The wildcard was 173-1 on the turf at KD in her only start, but now she's with DePaz, and in with NYB MCL'ers too, so she could wake way up; do not ignore.
#10 Women Not Easy Dropper was in against open foes off the long break last time and flashed some speed, now adds blinkers, and drew a nice outside attack post; worth a look.
Race Summary The fact the 8 takes the huge drop right away makes her a player here, and it's not like she even has to improve much to play with a group like this, so at that 5-1 ML she's worth a look in all the slots, and especially the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win in a 13-horse field in the $10 to $12 range, would play a lot longer.

Aqueduct - Race #4
Picks Notes
#4 Eden Ridge Longshot was in for 20k last time and ran a decent 3rd, and now drops in half, and faces a group that look a little tough to trust, with no margin for error either; bombs away.
#3 Mills Suddenly streaking runner had a huge losing streak and then has won two straight, the last in a canter, but the waters are deeper here, and he'll be overbet too; second-best.
#5 Business Cycle Stalker was a close 2nd to Mills last time in his last and now goes off the Noda claim (10%) for a solid barn, though he's another meeting tougher here; using underneath only.
Race Summary The price will be right and then some on the 4, who will get completely overlooked but really isn't that far off the best on paper, and unlike some of them, he's taking a stiff drop in class, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially the early Pk5/Pk4, as a win would completely blow up both sequences.

Aqueduct - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 Gets Lode of Lucky Dangerous sort hasn't been out since November turf run and didn't fire at all his lone dirt start, but Gargan is white hot, the dirt run was against MSW foes behind the Kentucky Derby favorite, and this is one sub-par group; spotted to score.
#2 I Prowl Alone Rice charge didn't run an inch on debut, but that was against MSW foes, and this is a barn that is a stiff 26% with second-out maidens, so that stat, coupled with the huge drop in class, could wake him up in a big way; expecting much better.
#13 Political Tepid ML favorite got no help from the draw and his form is no better than several here, so sure, he could win, but his penchant for losing ground in the stretch, coupled with his underlaid price, don't make him appealing; tread lightly here.
Race Summary There's a lot going on here, and there is a chance the 5 and 2 are just not very good, but they have a big chance on getting better, which is more than the rest can say, as they seem stuck in neutral, so play who you like best in all the slots, box them in the EX, and use them both to end the late Pk5/Pk4, since both will add value, and in a big field like this, just getting the winner home in the finale will add value to both sequences.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Charles Town - Race #3
Picks Notes
#5 Next Summer Ran into a tough customer last time out who ran off by 10, and this filly has now run three decent races in a row. Experience edge makes her the right one.
#2 Creative Glow Debuter doesn't meet much in here other than the top choice, and the works look forward enough to suggest she can make some noise at first asking.
#4 Racing My Father Decent effort last out landed her a share, but she hasn't yet run a race that would make her a threat for top honors here. Needs more to score, but she's useful underneath.
Race Summary Next Summer and Creative Glow might have this one locked down, but the former has an experience edge and should be in line for a really good trip.

Charles Town - Race #5
Picks Notes
#1 Bret's Legacy Drops hard for this after the flat comeback run, and this group might be soft enough to get him home.
#2 Matthew's Charm Chased the pace before tiring in the debut run at Laurel, but he should find the local company more to his liking. The one to beat?
#5 True Shipman Drops off a decent enough local debut, but run was so far the exception to his form rather than the rule, so I wouldn't want to eat too short a price here.
Race Summary Bret's Legacy was well beaten in his debut after showing some chasing pace, but it's also worth noting that he was three-quarters of a length out of the Exacta in a race won by a runaway winner.

Charles Town - Race #7
Picks Notes
#4 Cantakeitanymore Hoping there is just enough pace to set things up for his long, late rally. He's a grinding finisher who is better suited for this 9f trip than most in here.
#1 Katman Quick Figures to try to make a break for it from the inside, and he stayed on well enough when trying this trip last year.
#8 Caladan Invader has a right to be tough off those Laurel races, but he's probably overbet with these and doesn't always finish with a ton of energy.
Race Summary Cantakeitanymore should be finishing better than the rest in this spot, and he'll probably offer a playable number in a race where Caladan feels almost sure to be an underlay.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#2 LAURA’S LOVE Can’t go beyond in current form as she seeks fourth win in a row.
#6 SIOCHAN Ran second off longer layoff to start 3yo season, front-end threat.
#3 SOUTHWIND BAYOU No match for top one, but pocket trip could be in store.
Race Summary Laura’s Love rallied from 10-plus lengths behind to win her last three starts going away. She’d be a bargain at 9-5 morning line price. Play 2 with 3, 6 with ALL trifecta.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#1 PATRICK’S COOKIE Shuffled back in latest, can stalk and pounce, moves outside in.
#5 MYSTIC SEELSTER Rallied for two wins, a second and a third in her last four starts.
#8 P L LIGHTNING Responded to front-end tactics, won for 15th time in 61 starts.
Race Summary Patrick’s Cookie changed tactics but was shuffled out of contention last week. She rallied first-over in 3 of her previous 4 starts, earning a playback at a tempting price. Play 1-5 and 1-8 exactas.

Hawthorne - Race #1
Picks Notes
#9 MOSH PIT Sat good trip, lacked stretch kick, but encouraging sign nonetheless.
#2 PARK OFFICIAL Cleared early from post 10, dueled long way, just missed.
#7 SHERIFF COFFEE Troubled seems to have followed him in three starts at a 5yo.
Race Summary Mosh Pit showed a pulse on the drop to this level in his third start off a positive barn change. He worked out a good trip and now draws post 9, but if he gets early position, he can spring the upset. Play a 2-7-9 exacta box.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#4 Take Charge Again Broke her maiden two back and then was in too tough on the turf last time out; returns to dirt and is the one to beat here.
#1 Papa's Little Girl Has been solid in sprints; has had a lot of chances for her 2nd career win but often is good enough to be a major player in exotics.
#6 Blue Blue Ice Was 2nd in three of her last four and is a good bet to get a piece of it; likely will be heavily played.
Race Summary Take Charge Again failed on turf and should enjoy to the dirt back under her hooves.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#4 Plato Was mid-pack in an extremely fast race last time and should find himself in the hunt earlier than in his last.
#2 Frank First Crushed maiden-claimers last time out and is getting better; fits with these.
#3 Causalistic Was an easy winner two back and then was outrun in a much tougher spot last time; can resume good form.
Race Summary Plato has been trying much tougher lately, keeps Jaramillo and should be able to stretch out in good fashion.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#2 Candy Money Was very sharp at Tampa Bay in her only turf attempt; tough on the front end.
#1 Lookinlikeaqueen Was claimed by Maker, who has done well off claims and this one has a good work for her return.
#6 Ghostly Beauty Ran on well and just missed last time; could benefit from a good pace in front of her.
Race Summary Candy Money rose to the occasion in her only turf start as she cruised home on the front end; big chance to repeat.
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