TUF 19 Finale Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
Event: TUF 19 Finale
Date: July 6, 2014
Venue: Mandalay Bay Events Center
City: Las Vegas, Nevada
5-Round Featherweight Bout: Frankie Edgar (15-4-1) vs. BJ Penn (16-9-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Edgar -475, Penn +350
Two of the best in the sport look to get a huge victory on Sunday night as Frankie Edgar and BJ Penn square off for a third time at TUF 19 Finale in Las Vegas.
Edgar was able to get back on track in his last fight on July 6, 2013, defeating Charles Oliveira by way of unanimous decision at UFC 162, where he held a substantial 81-38 edge in significant strikes. Before that match, he had lost his previous three fights, which were all title bouts. However, those losses were to Benson Henderson (twice) and Jose Aldo, and all those defeats went the five-round distance. Sunday marks the third matchup between these two fighters, with Edgar winning the first two fights back in 2010 by way of unanimous decision. Edgar is an incredible athlete, using his speed and quickness to wear his opponents out. Even with the two wins against Penn, this may be the toughest of the three.
Penn, who is making his featherweight debut on Sunday, is regarded as one of the best to ever fight in the octagon. His resume includes wins against Diego Sanchez, Kenny Florian, Takanori Gomi and Matt Hughes (twice), and Penn is the one of two fighters (along with Randy Couture) to win UFC titles in two weight classes, lightweight and featherweight. Penn has big-time knockout power, and will really look to use that strength to his advantage in this fight. Of his nine career losses, seven have been by way of decision, showing Penn can wear down the later the fight goes. When these men fought for five rounds on Aug. 28, 2010, Edgar held a dominant 94-36 edge in significant strikes. It is very difficult to beat someone three consecutive times, but that is exactly what EDGAR will do on Sunday night.
Of his 15 victories, "The Answer" Edgar has won nine of those fights by way of decision. His conditioning and stamina will be a huge advantage in this sport, as Penn will struggle to keep up with Edgar. He also has three wins by way of knockout, and three by submission. Edgar does come into the fight with an advantage on significant strikes landed (3.35 per minute, compared to 2.77 for Penn). However, the 32-year-old New Jersey can get a little sporadic with his striking, landing only 39% of those strikes. Penn, on the other hand, lands 51% of his attempts. If Edgar is able to use his speed and quickness, then he will be in great position to get the win. However, if this turns into a striking contest, Penn has a great chance of finally getting a win in this rivalry.
"The Prodigy" Penn has 16 victories in his career, with seven of those wins coming by way of knockout. He also has six wins by submission and three by decision. Of his six submission victories, five have come by his preferred method of the rear naked choke. While the 35-year-old from Hawaii does not have as high of takedown average (1.36) as Edgar (2.54), he is much more accurate when going for the big takedown (55%, compared to 35% for Edgar). This is a fight of contrasting styles, and for Penn, he can ill-afford to have this match turn into a grueling and long match. He's only 3-7-2 in fights that go the distance, but an impressive 13-2 in fights that don't last the maximum rounds. If the 5-foot-9, 145-pound Penn, who holds a three-inch height advantage over his opponent and has actually fought as high as 205 pounds, is able to set the pace and hit Edgar early in the fight, then the opportunity will be there to get the win.
Ohter TUF 19 Finale Bouts
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
Light Heavyweight Matchup
Robert Drysdale -1200
Keith Berish +700
Bantamweight Matchup
Alexis Dufresne -200
Sarah Moras +165
Lightweight Matchup
Adriano Martins -425
Juan Manuel Puig +315
Light Heavyweight Matchup
Patrick Walsh +200
Daniel Spohn -250
Bantamweight Matchup
Tuerxun Jumabieke -130
Leandro Issa -110
Flyweight Matchup
Justin Scoggins -300
Dustin Ortiz +235
Middleweight Matchup
Dhiego Lima -180
Eddie Gordon +147
Lightweight Matchup
Kevin Lee -260
Jesse Ronson +207
Light Heavyweight Matchup
Corey Anderson -235
Matt Van Buren +190
Heavyweight Matchup
Derrick Lewis -195
Guto Inocente +160
TUF 19 Odds and Pick
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS -- The Ultimate Fighter 19 Finale Sunday night at Mandalay Bay features a featherweight battle between two former lightweight champions, Frankie Edgar and BJ Penn, and ends a great weekend of fight action here in Las Vegas.
At 5-to-1 odds, Edgar is a prohibitive favorite to get his third win over Penn, who gets about 4-to-1 on the takeback.
Edgar (16-4-1) lost consecutive lightweight title fights to Benson Henderson – in February and August of 2012 – both by razor-close decisions that could have gone either way. Since then, he’s dropped down to 145 pounds, the weight of Sunday night’s fight, to take on champion Jose Aldo for the featherweight title in February 2013. Even though Edgar lost a unanimous decision, he did quite well in that fight and gave Aldo more than most MMA experts thought was possible.
Edgar broke his three-fight losing streak with a nice unanimous decision over up-and-comer Charles Oliveira in July 2013.
Penn (16-9-2) has been a mainstay in UFC for over a decade, and his resume is a who's who of MMA superstars.
The problem for Penn is when he steps into the octagon Sunday night, he will have been off for about 19 months after off a terrible performance against Rory MacDonald, a highly-regarded welterweight in his own right. The December 2012 fight against MacDonald was an absolute disaster for Penn, as his younger and faster foe made easy work of putting a beating on him in a fight many believed was sure to be his last.
Before that, in October 2011, Penn lost a unanimous decision to Nick Diaz – that’s certainly no disgrace, as Diaz is always a threat to win a title, but Penn again looked slow and even outclassed.
With the line on Sunday’s bout ticking higher each day, I would love to play Penn here. Money has shown for the favorite, making the dog very inviting.
But even though the first two fights between these opponents were fairly close, with Edgar getting the decisions, and it's tough to beat the same guy three times, I don’t feel Penn has enough gas in the tank to take Edgar.
Also, Edgar still has good speed, something Penn lost a long time ago.
Penn's only chance is an early KO or submission win – if the fight goes past the second round, it will be very difficult for Penn to muster the energy to stay with Edgar, as his cardio has been a problem in his last few fights.
The Linemakers’ lean: Penn supporters may shorten his price as fight time approaches, but I'm not willing to be one of them. I’m taking Frankie Edgar to beat BJ Penn Sunday night here in Vegas.