U.S. Open Preview
By Dan Daly
VegasInsider.com
“It’s not just the biggest golf tournament in the world; it’s the most democratic. I mean it's open. Anyone's got a shot at it. You just gotta get past a local and a sectional qualifier, and unlike Doral or Colonial or the A.T.T., they can't keep you out. They can't ask you if you're a garbage man or a bean-picker or a driving range pro whose check is signed by a stripper. You qualify, you're in.”
Lord knows I love Tin Cup, but with all due respect to Roy MacAvoy there is a big difference between qualifying for the US Open and actually having a chance to win…especially this year. After the 2015 US Open was played on a course that was more appropriate for windmills and a clown’s mouth, we finally get back to a real US Open venue. And not just any US Open venue, arguably the hardest golf course in the world. Not even the incompetent Mike Davis and the USGA can screw this place up…although I’m sure they will try. This is a place that prides itself on having higher rough and faster greens for their annual Member/Guest than they do at the US Open.
In the eight previous US Open’s at Oakmont, only 19 players have finished the tournament under par (with 8 of those coming in 1994 alone). Three times nobody has finished the week under par at all, including the last US Open at Oakmont in 2007 when Angel Cabrera smoked roughly 720 cigarettes and barely edged out Tiger and Furyk at 5 over par. Of course, that was back when Tiger was sleeping with every cocktail waitress on the planet and was actually still good at golf.
So just how hard is Oakmont?
In his press conference last week Mickelson said, "I've played Oakmont the last two days, and I really think it is the hardest golf course we've ever played. It's a very fair test, even though it's hard. But a lot of golf courses, when they challenge you tee-to-green the way Oakmont does, it usually has a little bit of a reprieve on the greens. You really don't at Oakmont. They're some of the most undulating, fast, difficult greens to putt. It really is the hardest golf course I think we've played."
Personally, I love it. I think the US Open should be the hardest test in golf. Not the most tricked up (Mike Davis)…the hardest. If it was up to me, or anyone that actually knew what they were doing, the US Open would only be played on a handful of courses that rotate yearly like the British Open. My list would include; Oakmont, Winged Foot, Pebble, Olympic, Bethpage Black, Shinnecock, Merion, Pinehurst, Congressional, Baltusrol, The Country Club, Pinehurst No. 2 and Torrey Pines.
Of course Oakmont is also home to the greatest round of golf ever played. I know Johnny Miller is too humble to ever talk about it himself, but it’s true. In 2000, Golf Magazine ranked it the best round in golf history because of the course, the round it was shot, the tournament it was shot in and most importantly the fact that he shot it to win. And surprisingly enough, Johnny agreed. “That's why it was voted the greatest round,'' Miller said. His 63 in the final round of the 1973 US Open really was the greatest single round of golf ever played. And of course the USGA took it personal which lead to “The Massacre at Winged Foot” in 1974.
Not to be confused with the “I can’t believe I just did that…I am such an idiot” which also took place at Winged Foot…in 2006.
I’m not sure we will see a final round 63 this year to win, but like I said earlier, I think because of the venue we will see the best players in the world separate themselves this week and your winner will be one of the favorites. So let’s break down the contenders this week.
As always, odds are at the time this was written and will probably change throughout the week.
Let’s start with guys that have decent odds but zero chance:
Dustin Johnson (15/1): He will be a popular pick this week based on his play of late and his final round 63 in Memphis. But we are talking about winning a Major, and this is still Dustin Johnson. You can take your pick as to why DJ has zero chance this week. He’s cursed in Majors? He's gone more than 15 months without a win anywhere? He melts down anytime he’s in contention in any tournament these days? Again, his 63 in Memphis came with zero pressure after he already played himself out of it Saturday when he was actually in contention. We pretty much covered his chances of winning last week.
Rickie Fowler (20/1): Despite being in the the top five of the Official World Golf Ranking and a decent history at the US Open, Fowler isn’t in the top 5 odds wise to win this week. And for good reason. The guy just doesn’t win very much for as talented and highly ranked as he is and continues to be O-for his career in majors. He’s also missed the cut in his last two starts and most importantly as always…no male golfer has ever won a PGA Tour event, much less a major championship, wearing high tops and women’s pants.
Phil Mickelson (25/1): I went back and forth on Phil. The guy is a SIX time runner-up at the US Open. Most people look at that one of two ways. Either he is due…or he has no chance to win. I happen fall in the middle. The guy still has one of the best short games on the planet and will need every bit of it this week at Oakmont. He is also playing well in 2016 with five top five’s, including a T-2 in Memphis, but the guy hasn’t closed the deal on tour since his British Open win almost three years ago. Throw in the fact that Oakmont is about the only U.S. Open venue where Mickelson hasn't fared well with a T-47 in 1994 and missed the cut in 2007, and the US Open will still be missing from his resume come Sunday afternoon.
Henrik Stenson (25/1): If the objective in golf was to finish as close to first without ever actually winning, Henrik Stenson would be an all-time great. Contending is one thing, winning is an entirely different animal and Stenson has yet to prove the latter in years…or ever in a major.
Bubba Watson (30/1): Bubba winning a US Open in and of itself is hilarious. Bubba winning the US Open at Oakmont is about as likely as John Daly laying up on a Par 5. The guy has five missed cuts in nine tries at the US Open and gets flustered if an ant farts within 90 miles of him. He will lose his mind this week at Oakmont and missing the cut is far more likely than repeating anything close to his top-10 finish here in 2007.
Danny Willett (30/1): Willett winning the Masters was far from a fluke. The guy is ranked in the Top 10 in the world for a reason. With that said, I don’t see Jordan Spieth, or whoever is leading, having another epic collapse ahead of him again. He also has a less than stellar record at the US Open with a T-45 and a MC in two appearances. But above all else, I just don’t see Danny Willett winning back-to-back majors.
Louis Oosthuizen (40/1): Three missed cuts in five tournaments since his Match Play run in March. If you can’t make the cut at Colonial or the Nelson, you have no chance at Oakmont.
Matt Kuchar (40/1): Contend, no doubt. Win, no way. The guy is a check cashing machine. It’s just rarely the really big one and never at the Majors.
Patrick Reed (40/1): Despite being born in 1990, Patrick Reed played Oakmont the Monday after Johnny Miller’s 63 in 1973 using only a 7 iron and a putter and shot a 62. But in all seriousness, since I am currently tied with him in Top 10 finishes in a major, at zero, I will pass.
Sergio Garcia (40/1): It’s Sergio…it’s a major. Is there really anything else I need to say? Plus my wife hates him, so he’s got that going against him as well.
Brooks Koepka (50/1): Koepka has all the tools to win a major, and probably will one day, just not this Sunday. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his name in contention this weekend but he has had trouble closing in regular tour events so I don’t see him closing out a major just yet.
Lee Westwood (60/1): See Sergio…except the part about my wife. I really would love to see Westwood win just one Major before he’s done. I would love to be wrong but I just don’t see that being the case at this course of all places.
Zach Johnson (60/1): He has played in 12 US Open’s, has five missed cuts and not a single top 25 to his name in any of those 12 starts. No thanks.
Jim Furyk (80/1): He’s gritty…he’s a grinder…he’s Pennsylvania tough. And all that other BS that people try and throw around about Jim Furyk. Yes, he has won a US Open (over a decade ago). And yes he finished T-2 with Tiger here in 2007. And yes it would make a great story if he won in his home state and became the oldest player to ever win a US Open. But it simply isn’t going to happen. The guy is a choke artist. On top of which, he’s a ‘recovering from injury’ choke artist at that. If he was perfectly healthy and this was 5 years ago I wouldn’t take him at 80/1. This week, I wouldn’t take him at 180/1.
The Dark horse:
Kevin Chappell (80/1): Chappell has gone from 250/1 to 80/1 in less than a two months for a reason. With that said, he still hasn’t won on Tour and he’s still 80/1 for a reason. But if you are the kind of person that only likes to piss away money on a guy with really long odds, Chappell is your guy.
The Top 10 (in order).
Daniel Berger (80/1): Unfortunately for Berger backers, his odds are sure to drop after his impressive win in Memphis last week. But his win comes as no surprise. He was the 2015 PGA rookie of the year and before his win last week he had finished inside the top 20 in 5 of his last 6 tournaments. He ranks 25th on Tour in Driving Distance, 30th in Birdie Average, 36th in Total Putting. In other words he doesn’t have a glaring weakness. That and of course his girlfriend is an absolute smoke show so seeing her run out on the 18th green Sunday afternoon wouldn’t suck.
Paul Casey (50/1): Casey is one of the best iron players in the world and that will come in very handy this week. He is streaky, but recorded a T-4 at Augusta this year and finished T-10 here in 2007. At 50/1 there is value in Casey if you want it. And I definitely like him to repeat his top 10 from 2007 this week.
Brandt Snedeker (50/1): One of the best putters in the world on fast greens and top 25 here in 2007. If Sneds can find his form from early 2016 I think he can hang around this weekend long enough to record his second Top 10 in a major this year.
Hideki Matsuyama (30/1): As I said in April, Matsuyama is going to win a major sooner than later, he’s too talented and head strong not too. In general, he is playing well in 2016 and progressively getting better in majors and while I don’t think he’s quite there yet I think he backs up his Top 10 at Augusta with another Top 10 this week at Oakmont.
Justin Rose (20/1): I had actually been eyeing Rose all year for this tournament until a few weeks ago. The guy was made for the US Open with three top 10’s (including Oakmont in 2007) and a win in 2013 at Merion. But I just have a very hard time backing anyone with serious injury concerns (no pun intended). His lingering back injury forced him to WD from both the BMW PGA and the Memorial. That is a huge red flag. Plus he sucks at putting. Rose ranks 115th in strokes gained putting on the PGA Tour this year and that is a very bad stat when you are playing Oakmont. With that said, if his back holds up for four days it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Rose there come Sunday afternoon. Rose is the total wildcard this week to me.
Branden Grace (30/1): Before his tee shot landed somewhere between a train and the Pacific Ocean last year on the 70th hole Branden Grace had a very real shot of winning the US Open. His T-4 was no fluke as he has proved since with a solo third at the PGA Championship and a win at Hilton Head. The one major problem for Grace this week is that he ranks near the bottom of the tour in driving accuracy. That is not a good place to be if you want to win at Oakmont. If he can somehow drive it well for four days though he will absolutely be there on Sunday. But that is a big IF.
Jordan Spieth (8/1): As we saw at Augusta this year, his short-game can keep him in just about any tournament he plays in no matter how bad he is hitting it. But as we saw at Augusta, it will eventually catch up to him if he’s hitting it poorly. And nowhere on the planet will it catch up faster and more severe than Oakmont. His win at Colonial was big for his confidence but he also couldn’t find a fairway and once again had to rely on his short game to bail him out. He won’t have that luxury this week. I love Spieth and hope and expect him to be there come Sunday afternoon because of his ability to get the ball into the hole. I just think he hits too many wayward shots over the weekend to win. He’s still a no doubt Top 10 and right on the edge of a top 5 play for me this week.
Adam Scott (25/1): At the beginning of March it didn’t look like Adam Scott would ever lose another tournament again. He has obviously cooled off significantly since then but he still leads the tour in a number of statistics, most notably for this week, strokes gained tee-to-green and approach-the-green. Those two stats should bode very well for Scott this week. While he has just two top 10s in a US Open, but both have come the past two years. I think Scott is right there come Sunday with a very good chance to win and should easily notch his third Top 10 in a row in a US Open and a Top 5 wouldn’t surprise me either.
Jason Day (7/1): You almost have to be a complete idiot not to bet on Jason Day to win this week. He is currently the best player on the planet by a mile, he has won seven of his last 17 tournaments and has a pair of runner-up finishes in 2011 (Congressional) and 2013 (Merion) to go along with an otherwise impressive record at the US Open as well. But I am an idiot. Most of the time in life the most obvious answer is the right one…but every now and then the most obvious answer is wrong. This week has that feel. Day is a lock for a Top 10 and an almost certain Top 5, but he still only has one major title to his name and has a tendency to find ways to barely lose majors more often than not in his career. Would a win surprise me this week by Day? Not even a little. I just think this feels a lot like 2007 when Tiger was a forgone conclusion coming in and finished one shot back to El Pato.
And your winner…
Rory McIlroy (7/1): As I said in my 2016 PGA Preview, “to win at Oakmont you need accuracy and power and no one on tour fits that mold better than Rory.” I regrettably jumped the gun and took him at Augusta this year even though he was putting like a 10-handicap and almost talked myself out of taking him this week because of it. But make no mistake, Rory McIlroy is better suited for Oakmont than anyone else on tour. He is number one on Tour in strokes gained off-the-tee and number three in strokes gained from-tee-to-green. That will be huge this week and unlike heading into the Masters, he had the best putting week of his PGA Tour career after changing back to a conventional grip at The Memorial a few weeks ago where he finished T-4. He won in Ireland in his start prior to Memorial that ended a winless drought of more than a year and he's posted four top-five finishes in his past seven PGA Tour starts. His US Open win in 2011 at Congressional basically wasn’t even a US Open. His 2016 win at Oakmont certainly will be.
On a side note, I might be in love with Brooke Henderson. If she is the future of the LPGA Tour, sign me up. Her win at Women's PGA Championship Sunday was nothing short of spectacular. I always said it would take a miracle to get me to watch a full round of an LPGA Tournament. Brooke Henderson appears to be that miracle. I will have my two little girls watching her on a regular basis. I’m a fan.
U.S. Open Preview
By Matt Fargo
Playbook.com
The second Major is upon us as the 116th U.S. Open will be contested this week from Oakmont Country Club located just east of Pittsburgh, PA. After the Pinehurst and Chambers Bay experiments, we are back to a typical U.S. Open layout with thick, long and tiered rough and lightning fast greens. This is the ninth time Oakmont has hosted the U.S. Open which is the most for any course. A true test where poor shots will come with a penalty, the champion likely comes from who makes the fewest mistakes.
Oakmont stretches out to 7,254 yards and is expected to play extremely tough once again this week. It last hosted in 2007 with Angel Cabrera taking home the trophy with a 5-over total, the highest finishing score of any U.S. Open since. That was also the first time the champion finished over par at Oakmont since 1935 as the five champions after all finished with sub-par scores. Light wins and low humidity would normally mean low scoring but the greens will be the fastest anyone has seen this year.
Since the start of the 2007 U.S. Open, roughly 14,000 trees have been removed in an effort to get Oakmont looking like the original design. So while there is no tree trouble, there is no water trouble either which shows how much the rough and the greens can be penal. Keeping the ball on the short grass and hitting greens is obviously of the utmost importance but that is easier said than done. Straight. high hitters will have the biggest advantage to tame Oakmont.
While the thought is that the Majors are dominated by the world's best players, that has hardly been the case. Of the last 29 Majors, there have been 21 different winners with Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson, Martin Kaymer, Bubba Watson and Jordan Spieth being the only two-time or more Major winners over that stretch. As far as the U.S. Open, 10 of the last 11 winners hoisted the trophy for the first time, with Tiger Woods in 2008 being his third title. American players used to dominate but only four of the last 12 winners have been from the United States.
World No. 1 Jason Day, defending champion Jordan Spieth and Master champion Danny Willett head a list expected to include 59 of the top 60 players in the world rankings. Spieth will be out to defend but it will not be easy as the last back-to-back U.S. Open champion was Curtis Strange in 1988 and 1989. How difficult is it to defend? Only six players in the history of the U.S. Open have finished higher than 30th the following year.
The Big Three of Jason Day, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth are the favorites at +630, +655 and +810 respectively. Dustin Johnson, who three-putted the 72nd hole at Chalmers Bay last year and who is in search of his first Major comes in at +1,310 and then there is a big dropoff to Justin Rose (+2,470), Phil Mickelson (+2,610), Adam Scott (+2,740), Hideki Matsuyama (+2,740) and Rickie Fowler (+2,870) who are the remaining players under the +3,000 threshold.
Golfers to Bet - U.S. Open
By Sportsbook.ag
The second major of the year tees off on Thursday when the players head to Oakmont Country Club for the U.S. Open.
Jordan Spieth was the one that ended up emerging as the winner of 2015’s U.S. Open. Prior to that victory, the winner in four of the previous five championships came from Europe.
Graeme McDowell was the winner in 2010, Rory McIlroy won in 2011, Justin Rose won in 2013 and Martin Kaymer was the winner in 2014. Those guys will also be in this year’s field, and so will most of the other top golfers in the world.
The one main exclusion that must be noted is Tiger Woods. Woods is still recovering from a back injury and is out indefinitely. It’s a major loss for the TOUR, as he has won this event three times in his career. The course these guys will be playing at was most recently the host of this tournament back in 2007.
Angel Cabrera won that year, shooting a five-over to defeat both Jim Furyk and Tiger Woods by one stroke each. This is typically a tough tournament to play in, but each of the past two winners has finished under-par.
With that out of the way, let’s now take a look at who might be holding up the trophy on Sunday:
Golfers to Bet
Jordan Spieth (8/1) - Spieth is getting better odds than both Jason Day and Rory McIlroy in this tournament, but there really isn’t that big of a margin between all of these players. Spieth also happens to be the defending champion at the U.S. Open and will be driven to win this thing after giving away The Masters in April. He had a big lead heading into the back nine of that one and his collapse allowed Danny Willett to come away with a victory. Spieth has rebounded pretty nicely since that forgettable performance, as he won the Dean & DeLuca Invitational at the end of May. There’s not much that he can do to completely put what happened at The Masters behind him, but a win at the U.S. Open on Sunday would certainly help him deal with those demons. He’s worth putting a few units on at 8/1, as he is as special of a talent as there is on TOUR.
Dustin Johnson (14/1) - Johnson is yet another golfer with all of the talent in the world and he’ll certainly be hungry to win this tournament on Sunday. Johnson has never won a major, but he has come insanely close to doing so. He tied for second at the U.S. Open in 2015 and did the same at The Open in 2011. He’d certainly like for his first to be this weekend, as it would mean a lot to him to win his first at the U.S. Open. Johnson looked like he was going to win at Chambers Bay in 2015, but he three-putted the final hole and that ended up being the difference. Johnson is, however, playing some incredible golf coming into this one. He is coming off of a fifth place finish at the St. Jude Classic last week and he finished in third at the Memorial Tournament two weeks ago. He’s a great value to win at 14/1 and should have a great chance of coming away with a win. He’ll just need to be consistent with the putter.
Brooks Koepka (45/1) - Like Johnson, Koepka also happens to be coming into this tournament playing some of his best golf of the season. Koepka shot a 15-under to finish in second at the Byron Nelson in the middle of May and he followed that appearance up with a 10-under to finish tied for second at the St. Jude Classic. Koepka was struggling heading into both of those events, but perhaps he has picked up the momentum he needs to take his game to another level on Sunday. He is certainly well rounded enough to win a tournament like this. Koepka is excellent with the driver and can get hot on the greens as well, which is a huge reason he is 16th in the OWGR. His value is tremendous at 45/1 and it’d be wise to put a unit on him this weekend.
Shane Lowry (125/1) - Lowry is not performing the way he did a year ago, but that might actually end up paying off huge this weekend. Lowry finished 2015 as the 21st ranked player in the OWGR, but he is just 41st this year. He does, however, have all the shots and is a high upside play this weekend. Lowry most recently appeared at THE PLAYERS and finished tied for 16th with a six-under. That was his last PGA tournament, so he should be well rested coming into this one. For a player of his caliber to be getting 125/1 odds is very rare, so putting a half-unit on him is something that should definitely be done while you have the chance.
U.S. Open Preview
By Brady Kannon
There are difficult golf courses, and there are difficult U.S. Open golf courses, and then there is Oakmont. The second Major Championship of the season, The United States Open, is widely considered the most difficult test of the four Majors and this year, they are holding it at what is widely considered the most difficult golf course in America. Watching the best golfers in the world, come down the stretch on Sunday at Oakmont for The U.S. Open in 2007, the last time it was held here, I remember it looking like a twelve car pileup of which nobody could seemingly extricate themselves from and survive. Bogey after bogey, after bogey.. and finally when the dust settled, Angel Cabrera was the champion, or last man standing maybe, shooting 5-over par for the championship.
Oakmont Country Club, located in Oakmont, Pennsylvania, has not changed much over the years. Designed by Henry Fownes and opening in 1903, it is a relatively short golf course for a modern day Major Championship at 7,255 yards. Hundreds of trees have been removed from the layout in recent years and the course does not have a single water hazard. It does however, have 200-some sand bunkers, a 300-yard Par 3, and significantly undulated, lightning fast greens. The fairways are canted in different directions, making placing one's tee shot crucial in order for the ball not to roll into the ankle-deep U.S. Open style rough. And the fastest greens you've ever seen, they are also slanted, causing many approach shots to roll off of the putting surface.
Driving Accuracy will be important in order to avoid the extremely penal rough. How well one is able to play their ball out of the rough will be a factor. Recovery from the sand and scrambling around the greens will be crucial to success.. and of course, putting. Gauging the intimidating speed of these greens, holing longer than normal putts for par, and avoiding 3-putts will all play a massive role in how one fares this week at Oakmont. The winner this week will be somebody that is in full control of their entire game, from start to finish, without ever losing focus.. and that will be extremely difficult because bogies or worse will happen. Like Fox Golf Analyst Paul Azinger said recently, who will be on the call this week, "It'd be a great week to be unflappable."
The Favorites
Jason Day is currently at +550 at Bovada on the betting odds. The number one player in the world has won seven of the last eighteen events he's entered and he has a great history of finishes at The U.S. Open, with four Top-10's in five tries. Last year at Chambers Bay, Day finished 9th despite a bout with vertigo.
Rory McIlroy +700 at Bookmaker. McIlroy has gone back to his former putting grip and it appears to be paying dividends with a recent win at The Irish Open. Dating back to The Masters, McIlroy has a handful of Top-10 finishes in the states but they have come in large part by way of late Sunday charges even though he was clearly out of contention for a win.
Jordan Spieth +800 at BetOnline. The defending champion seems to have his magical short game in tremendous form but he has still been very wayward off of the tee. Even the best short game in the world, which he arguably has, will not bail him out at Oakmont if his tee ball is still unable to find the proper landing areas.
The Contenders
Dustin Johnson +1200 at GTbets. This will be DJ's year for revenge, having three putted the final hole at last year's U.S. Open to lose to Jordan Spieth.. but the big hitting, immense, talent has yet to record a victory this year and continues to find ways to not be able to close the deal on Sundays. Another Top-5 finish seems likely but can he turn the corner and get his first Major Championship?
Rickie Fowler +2500 at Intertops. Rickie's stats are off the charts as he does just about everything extremely well but it has not translated into much of anything since winning The Players Championship last season. He missed the cut at The Masters, at The Players this year, and also just two weeks ago at The Memorial. Fowler missed the cut last year at Chambers Bay after recording two straight Top-10 finishes in The U.S. Open in 2013 and 2014.
Adam Scott +3000 at Pinnacle. The U.S. Open has not traditionally been the best Major suited for Scott and after starting off this season on fire, he has cooled off recently without a single Top-10 in his last six events. He does however, come in this year to Oakmont off of two straight Top-10 finishes in The U.S. Open
The Long Shots
Bubba Watson +4000 at YouWager. The premium placed on accuracy and the taxing mental grind that is The U.S. Open has never been a good recipe for Watson's game and the frustration that ensues has taken him out of contention. The 4th ranked player in the world however, does have a win this season in Los Angeles and finished 5th here at Oakmont the last time it held a U.S. Open in 2007.
Charl Schwartzel +6000 at Heritage. The 2011 Masters Champion has actually fared better in The U.S. Open recently than he has at Augusta, with two Top-15 finishes and two Top-10's in the last six years. Schwartzel also has three wins worldwide in the last seven months.
Retief Goosen +20000 at TheGreek. This will be the 18th U.S. Open for the two time champion, winning in 2001 and 2004. He has only missed one cut all season and is coming off of three straight Top-15 finishes. His putting has been remarkable as he ranks 16th on Tour in Strokes Gained Putting and 1st in 3-Putt Avoidance.
The Pick
For our betting pick, Phil Mickelson +2500 is our main option. The six time runner up at The U.S. Open needs only it to complete the career Grand Slam for Major Championships. Mickelson has not won a tournament since capturing The British Open in 2013. His short game has been fantastic this season but he will need to keep his tee ball in the fairways this week. Dating back to Pebble Beach, Phil has two 2nd place finishes, two other Top-10's and three Top-20 results. I feel this championship has been his focus since The Masters and possibly before that. I'm betting this is the year.
18 need-to-know golf betting notes for the 2016 U.S. Open
By Joe Fortenbaugh
Covers.com
The marriage between the U.S. Open and Oakmont Country Club is a perfect as it is treacherous, as epic as it is challenging.
Widely regarded as the most daunting test on the professional golf calendar, no track in the world is better suited to test every facet of one’s game during a 72-hole stretch designed to crown America’s champion. Unrelenting, punishing and, perhaps most importantly, mentally exhausting. The U.S. Open is the ultimate test, and Oakmont Country Club is the ideal venue.
Forget about the 5-under par Jordan Spieth shot last year at Chambers Bay to win the 2015 tournament. Disregard the 9-under Martin Kaymer fired at Pinehurst the year before that to claim his second major championship. Oakmont is a different beast entirely, as evidenced by the 5-over Angel Cabrera recorded in 2007 - the last time the U.S. Open swung by Oakmont - to claim his first and only United States Open Championship.
This week marks the ninth time in 116 editions that the U.S. Open will venture into Western Pennsylvania and onto the pristine grounds of Oakmont Country Club. Perhaps nowhere else in the world is a champion deemed more worthy than the individual who raises the 8.5-pound sterling silver symbol of triumph at Oakmont Country Club.
Here are 18 need-to-know golf betting notes for this week’s U.S. Open:
1. Between the dense, profuse rough and lightning-quick greens that will be played between 14 and 15 on the stimpmeter, it’s no surprise to hear five-time major championship winner Phil Mickelson refer to Oakmont as, “The hardest course he’s ever played.” Throw in Angel Cabrera’s 5-over par win in 2007 during the U.S. Open’s last visit to Oakmont and it becomes crystal clear as to why the Over/Under for this week’s winning score was posted at 282.5 (Par is 280). I’d exercise extreme caution for those of you contemplating an Under wager this week, especially when you consider…
2. Weather update: The forecast for Thursday’s opening round calls for a high of 85 degrees with a 90 percent chance of precipitation (thunderstorms are likely) and five mile-per-hour winds out of the west-southwest. Friday’s forecast calls for a high of 82 degrees with morning thunderstorms (60 percent chance of precipitation) and 10 mile-per-hour winds out of the east-northeast. The inclement weather is expected to disappear over the weekend, with just a 10 percent chance of precipitation Saturday, highs of 86 and 87 degrees Saturday and Sunday, respectively, and little wind to worry about during the tournament’s final 36 holes.
3. Injury alert: Justin Rose (25/1) won the 2013 U.S. Open at Merion, but be advised that the 35 year old is returning to action this week following a back injury that forced him to withdraw from both the BMW PGA Championship and the Memorial. Further, Rose just started practicing with his driver again only a few days ago, so there’s reason to believe the Englishman may struggle a bit at Oakmont this week, much like he did on this same course back in 2007 when Rose posted a +11 after 72 holes.
4. Under the weather: Always a popular choice amongst bettors to emerge victorious once the dust finally settles, Jason Day (13/2) is battling a cold he recently picked up and isn’t 100 percent for this week’s championship. “I’ve never been more stressed in my life than right now,” Day told ESPN. “It’s just because being No. 1 in the world, having a lot of expectations on you, having to practice so hard to keep that No. 1 spot, trying to win as many tournaments as I can, puts a lot of stress and pressure on your shoulders.” The World No. 1 didn’t get a chance to prepare for Oakmont this past Saturday and Sunday like he wanted to, which could put him behind the eight ball come Thursday’s opening round.
5. Key stat: With devastating rough measuring four to eight inches in length as well as strategically placed bunkers that will prove very difficult to escape, Stokes Gained: Tee-to-Green may be the most important metric to consider in regards to the 2016 United States Open. We’ll spare you the details on how this statistic is calculated and, instead, will simply skip ahead to the players who have performed very well this season in this category, which includes: Adam Scott (1), Justin Rose (2), Dustin Johnson (3), Rory McIlroy (4), Rickie Fowler (5), Hideki Matsuyama (6), Bubba Watson (7), Henrik Stenson (8,), Phil Mickelson (T12), Patrick Reed (T12) and Jordan Spieth (16).
6. For those of you who enjoy playing daily matchups, take note that since 1898, only six U.S. Open championships have been won by players who were in seventh place or worse entering the final round.
7. Popular player to watch: While he’s never won a major championship and has developed a bit of a reputation for collapsing in the biggest of spots, Dustin Johnson (12/1) is drawing plenty of attention this week and for good reason. Johnson put together back-to-back T5 finishes in his two starts leading up to this week’s U.S. Open, highlighted by a final round 63 this past Sunday in Memphis to finish fifth at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Still, you can’t help but consider what happened on the 72nd hole last year at Chambers Bay when evaluating whether or not D.J. has the mettle to put it all together for four full rounds. However, golf bettors should like the idea of playing Johnson at +125 over Jason Day in a four-round matchup prop.
8. Only 27 of the 156 golfers in this week’s field competed at the U.S. Open the last time it was held at Oakmont back in 2007. Some of the notable names and results from that group include: Angel Cabrera (Won), Jim Furyk (T2), Bubba Watson (T5), Paul Casey (T10) and Brandt Snedeker (T23). Those who didn’t fare so well include: Luke Donald, Sergio Garcia, Retief Goosen, Phil Mickelson and Adam Scott, who all missed the cut.
9. Four-round matchup to consider: Rory McIlroy (-105) over Jason Day (-115) looks appealing due to Day’s recent illness combined with McIlroy’s recent form, which features five consecutive PGA Tour events with a finish of T12 or better, including three Top 5s. Not only that, but McIlroy has won this event before, which came via an eight-shot victory over (guess who?) Day at Congressional back in 2011. In that win, McIlroy set 11 U.S. Open records, including the lowest total 72-hole score (268).
10. Key stat: As mentioned above, avoiding both the rough and fairway bunkers at Oakmont will prove to be an integral component in the eventual champion’s path to success, which means that Driving Accuracy will serve as another crucial metric worthy of consideration entering Thursday’s opening round. Those in the field who have excelled at Driving Accuracy so far this season include: Thomas Aiken (2), Russell Knox (8.), Henrik Stenson (9), Graeme McDowell (13) and David Lingmerth (15).
11. The defending champion: Two-time major championship winner (2015 Masters, 2015 U.S. Open at Chambers Bay) Jordan Spieth enters the week listed at 8/1 to defend his title, right behind Day (13/2) and McIlroy (7/1). But Oakmont will present a test the likes of which Spieth has never before seen. The last time the U.S. Open ventured into Western Pennsylvania, Spieth was only 13 years old. In addition, the defending champ had all of just 27 holes of practice at Oakmont on his resume entering the week, and what he’s experienced over the last few days is vastly different than how the track played during that tune-up back in May. And for those who suggest that last year presented the same challenge for Spieth, think again, as caddy Michael Greller actually began his career as a looper at Chambers Bay, giving Spieth a strategic advantage over the competition.
12. Fun fact: The eighth hole at Oakmont will serve as the longest Par-3 in U.S. Open history at a length of 288 yards. When America’s championship last visited Western Pennsylvania back in 2007, the eighth green was hit just 26.7 percent of the time.
13. Key stat: It’s considered highly probable that Oakmont will feature the fastest greens of any event played this season, so 3-Putt Avoidance is a metric we should take very seriously. Those in the field who have excelled in this category this season include: Retief Goosen (1), Luke Donald (5), Spencer Levin (12), Ryan Moore (18) and Daniel Berger (T19).
14. Speaking of putting, exercise caution this week when it comes to backing Rickie Fowler (25/1). One of the most affable players on Tour, Fowler currently ranks 32nd in 3-Putt Avoidance, 28th in Approach Putt Performance and 42nd in Strokes Gained: Putting. Not only that, but the streaky Fowler has missed the cut in each of his last two events (THE PLAYERS Championship, the Memorial) as well as at the Masters back in April. And that leads us to…
15. Four-round matchup to consider: Phil Mickelson (-110) over Rickie Fowler (-110), for all the reasons mentioned directly above regarding Fowler, as well as the fact that Mickelson is coming off a T2 performance at last weekend’s FedEx St. Jude Classic. This has been somewhat of an inconsistent season for Lefty, but he does rank first in Putting Inside of Ten Feet, 10th in Sand Saves, 12th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and 21st in Scrambling, all of which will be vital to gaining any sort of traction at Oakmont this week.
16. Four of the last five U.S. Open championships have been won by golfers who found themselves within the Top 15 in the Official World Golf Rankings entering the week of the U.S. Open. The current Top 15 looks as follows: Jason Day (13/2), Jordan Spieth (8/1), Rory McIlroy (7/1), Bubba Watson (40/1), Rickie Fowler (25/1), Dustin Johnson (12/1), Henrik Stenson (30/1), Adam Scott (30/1), Danny Willett (40/1), Justin Rose (25/1), Patrick Reed (40/1), Branden Grace (30/1), Sergio Garcia (40/1), Louis Oosthuizen (60/1) and Hideki Matsuyama (30/1).
17. Be careful when it comes to: Bubba Watson (40/1), who boasts a U.S. Open resume that looks like this: T5 (2007), CUT (2008), T18 (2009), T63 (2011), CUT (2012), T32 (2013), CUT (2014), CUT (2015). Which leads us to…
18. Four-round matchup to consider: Henrik Stenson (-125) over Bubba Watson (+105), for all the reasons listed directly above along with the fact that Stenson’s last seven U.S. Open appearances have concluded with the following results: T27 (2015), T4 (2014), T21 (2013), T23 (2011), T29 (2010), 9 (2009). Stenson rarely makes a serious run at winning the U.S. Open, but he’s been extremely consistent over his last seven starts in this event, with seven consecutive made cuts.