U.S. Open Preview
By Dan Daly
VegasInsider.com
The Weekly Waggle is back…well, sort of. Let’s just say shorting the name to simply The Waggle might be more appropriate going forward. With a Major Championship coming up I couldn’t sit on the sidelines too long.
So without further ado, let’s dive into the 2017 U.S. Open Preview.
Before we get to the guys playing this week I had to address the Phil Mickelson “story.” How Phil missing the US Open for his daughter’s graduation and commencement speech is getting the attention it is, is so far beyond my scope of comprehension I don’t even know where to begin. In the words of the great Jacobim Mugatu…I feel like I’m taking crazy pills! Let’s start with the fact that the guy hasn’t won a major, let alone a tour event in FOUR YEARS. As for the US Open specifically, his last six starts he has gone T54 (2011), T65 (12), T2 (13), T28 (14), T64 (15) and an MC last year. Phil has zero chance to win this week…zero. So Phil not playing this week will have exactly no affect at all on the final outcome. None. Phil missing the 2017 US Open isn’t exactly DJ missing the 2017 Masters…it’s not even in the same hemisphere. (And yes, I know he played well at the St Jude…it’s irrelevant. He finished T2 last year and missed the cut the next week at Oakmont. This year would produce the same result.)
More importantly, he’s missing the Open for his daughter’s High School graduation and commencement speech. In other words, he’s doing what any other dad in the world would do, putting his child ahead of his job for one day. That doesn’t make him special, it makes him a DAD. Plain and simple. People are acting like the guy is donating a kidney to save her life. Broken down in its simplest form, Phil Mickelson is passing up a T:64th finish (at best) to be with his daughter on the most important day of her life so far. So yeah, sorry if I’m not overnighting him a World’s Greatest Dad coffee mug like everyone else.
Anyway, as for the guys that actually have a chance this week (and the ones that don’t):
(As always, odds are at the time this was written and will probably change throughout the week)
Sergio Garcia (25/1): I had Sergio winning the British Open this year in my 2017 Preview. Unfortunately he jumped the gun on me by a few months. With that said, I couldn’t have been happier for Sergio at the Masters; Loved seeing him pull that off. I think Sergio plays well this week based on the monkey being off his back and the fact that he has been very consistent in the US Open (9 straight cuts made), but betting on Sergio to win this week means you think he will go from 0/73 in Majors to 2/2…yeah, don’t see that happening.
Lee Westwood (60/1): Hey, if Sergio can finally break through and win his first Major then why not Lee Westw……….just kidding. He has zero chance.
Bubba Watson (80/1): Putting your money on Bubba Watson to win a U.S. Open is either very sad or very funny, I’m not entirely sure which. Either way it’s stupid. The guy has five missed cuts in 10 tries at the US Open and hasn’t finished better than T32 in the last seven years. Plus it’s supposed to rain this week and the last time it rained at a U.S. Open, Bubba lost his mind leading to the infamous line, “There’s water on the clubface…bro.” Betting on Bubba to MC this week is a much better use of your money.
Patrick Reed (60/1): Win? LOL. I’m still anxiously awaiting Patrick Reed’s first ever Top 10 in a major. He is 0/13 so far, this week will make 0/14.
Graeme McDowell (120/1): Graeme makes the list for one reason and one reason only. This is my wife’s pick to win this week. Now in fairness this is her favorite player and she picks him every year since he won it in 2010. Personally I’ll take a hard pass here.
Matt Kuchar (50/1): Kuchar won’t win, because, well, Kuchar doesn’t win Majors, but the guy has made 7 straight cuts at the U.S. Open which is the second longest active streak behind Sergio. So he is a safe fantasy pick if nothing else.
Henrik Stenson (35/1): Stenson had been very consistent at the US Open with six straight top 30s at the US Open before his neck injury forced him to WD at Oakmont last year. Officially it was a WD, unofficially he was going to miss the cut anyway. Either way, Stenson has been good but never great at the US Open and he sure as hell isn’t going to repeat last year’s British Open again this week. So that leaves us with a middle of the pack finish for Stenson this year.
Branden Grace (50/1): Two guys have finished inside the Top 5 at the last two US Open’s, DJ and Branden Grace (T4:2015, T5:2016). More on DJ later but let’s just say it won’t be three years in a row for Branden.
Alex Noren (60/1): Who? Like Danny Willett at last year’s Masters this is a name very few American golf fans know much about despite the fact that he is the 8th rank player in the World. He also has five worldwide wins in the last 11 months including the BMW PGA Championship in Europe two weeks ago. So why is the 8th ranked player in the world with 5 wins in the last 11 months getting 60/1? Because in four US Open starts he has a T51 with three straight missed cuts. It wouldn’t shock me at all to see Noren in the mix this weekend, the guy is playing too well not to be, but until he proves he can play well in a US Open I will pass.
Martin Kaymer (60/1): Do you see Martin Kaymer as a two:time US Open champion come Sunday night? Me neither.
Paul Casey (50/1): I have ridden Casey in the Masters the last few years in prop and match up bets and he hasn’t disappointed finishing T:6th, T:4th, 6th. His record in the US Open on the other hand is terrible. Stay away…stay far, far away.
Daniel Berger (85/1): My four-year-old loves Hamburgers so she was rooting for Daniel Berger during the final round of the FedEx St Jude and thought it was hilarious every time they said his name on TV. Unfortunately for her, and Daniel, the FedEx St Jude isn’t the US Open. No player has ever won the week before the US Open and gone on to win the US Open as well. That trend will continue in 2017.
Hideki Matsuyama (25/1) and Justin Thomas (40/1): If the US Open had been played in the middle of January or February I would be all over either of these guys. Unfortunately in the four months since both have come back to Earth. Throw in the fact that neither have putted well of late and neither Matsuyama nor Thomas will make much noise this week. I think both play well this week but they would need to find their early year form to win and I don’t see that happening all of the sudden.
Justin Rose (18/1): Despite his win at the 2013 US Open, Rose has a surprisingly bad record at the US Open otherwise. Five missed cuts in 11 starts with only one other high finish (T5) all the way back in 2003. Throw in the fact that Rose hasn’t won on Tour since the 2015 Zurich Classic and I don’t think we will see a repeat performance of the 2013 US Open or even his performance earlier this year at Augusta.
Rickie Fowler (20/1): Every year this is the bandwagon everyone wants to jump on. Hell, I even fell for it two years ago, but the fact of the matter is Rickie has four missed cuts in eight US Open starts including back-to-back missed cuts since his T:2 at Pinehurst in 2014. Yes he’s been playing well of late and I think he will make the cut at Erin Hills, but there is a very large difference between making the cut and winning. The good news for Rickie is, no matter how bad he plays he still has a ton of money and will leave with some smoking hot 18 to 23-year-old by his side. Yeah, it doesn’t suck to be Rickie Fowler.
Rory McIlroy (10/1): Erin Hills actually has rather wide fairways and could play soft if the rain remains in the forecast. Normally this would be a Rory McIlroy special, but there are three very big factors working against Rory this week. The biggest being the rib injury. I don’t bet on players with injuries, too many unknowns. Two, Rory is a rhythm player and the guy hasn’t played a competitive hole of golf in over a month (injury, wedding and a honeymoon). Finally, he is getting used to new equipment and we saw how poorly that went when he last switched. I think Rory struggles the first two rounds and if he makes the cut (which he will) he will make a typical Rory run over the weekend but it will be too little too late. I would still take him Top 10 if not for the injury issue but that is just too much of an unknown for me to take him…or bet against him.
Dustin Johnson (7/1): DJ is the overwhelming favorite this week and for very good reason. He’s the best player in the world and his MC at Memorial means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things. He could be going for a three-peat in this event if not for a 'three-putt' at Chamber’s Bay in 2015. In other words, he also plays well at the US Open on top of his recent run. So why will DJ not win? Simple, because the whole world expects him to. Sometimes in life it’s just that simple. But if you need a more specific reason, the putter has been a little shaky in his last three events (Players, Nelson and Memorial). The putter cost him the 2015 US Open and unfortunately for DJ I think the same club will cost him the 2017 US Open as well.
Jordan Spieth (9/1): Spieth is sneaky long so the distance doesn’t concern me. He is No. 1 on Tour in strokes gained approach to the green so that bodes well. He’s also one of the few players in the field to have played Erin Hills in competition having made it to the quarterfinals of the 2011 U.S. Amateur. My concern with Spieth this week is the putter (There’s a sentence I never thought I would write). Seeing Spieth switch to a mallet putter at the Nelson was incredibly alarming…and telling. Lord knows I love me some Jordan Spieth and I certainly wouldn’t bet against him this week but taking Jordan Spieth while he’s struggling with his putter is like hiring Kate Upton for a photo shoot and putting her in a baggy shirt.
Jon Rahm (18/1): Even though this will be Rahm's first U.S. Open as a pro, I loved Rahm in this spot for the last few months, but this new temper tantrum phase he is going through is incredibly concerning. My four and two year old look calm compared to him lately. Of all the tournaments on Tour the US Open is probably the one you have to be the most patient and this guy is finally showing his age and immaturity. I think Rahm will win a US Open at some point, hell, it might even be this one, but I have a very hard time backing a guy at the US Open that whines more than my two kids. Just ask Bubba how well that works out for you.
Thomas Pieters (50/1): Pieters is a total feast or famine pick this week. The guy could win or miss the cut and neither would surprise me in the least. On the one hand he has zero US Open starts, in fact he has only played in three majors in his career (the last three played). Generally that alone would be enough to scare me away. However in his first Ryder Cup last fall he was absolutely the best player for the Euro Team, and in his first Masters this year he finished T4. Throw in a T5 at WGC:Mexico and this guy is a big time up and coming player. He doesn’t play a ton on the PGA Tour so he isn’t that well known but he could be a good pick this week in favorable match ups and prop bets.
Brandt Snedeker (65/1): Sneds is another guy with a sneaky good US Open record, which is no real surprise considering he is one of the best fast green putters in the world. He has four Top:10’s and seven Top:25’s in ten US Open starts with 3 missed cuts. I think Sneds will have some favorable match ups this week and taking him in a Top 20 finish will be a good play. While I don’t see him winning this week, his record in US Open’s is too good to pass up in other areas where you can take him.
Jason Dufner (50/1): I love Dufner this week. Not to win, the course will play too long for him, but in match up bets and Fantasy. He has three Top:10’s in his last five US Open starts and is playing well as of late. Take Dufner where you can get him this week, just not to win. But the real question is, if somehow he does win will his new girl let him go full ass grab like Amanda did after the PGA. On that note…I miss Amanda Dufner and everything about her.
Adam Scott (30/1): Scott is another guy I like a lot this week in match up plays, fantasy and prop bets. He is playing well lately and is one of only four guys to make 5 straight cuts at the US Open with two Top:10’s in that span. I don’t know that he can win his first US Open this week but I think Scott has another solid week with an easy Top:20 and a good shot at another Top:10.
Darkhorse
Brooks Koepka (40/1): This was my pick in February for the 2017 Preview and I still think at 40/1 he is a great dark horse pick this week. He always starts the year slow and this year was no different but as expected Koepka got hot at the WGC:Match Play with a run of five consecutive top 16s, including a runner:up at the Valero Texas Open. In his last three US Open’s he has three Top:20’s (including a T4) and at 40/1 I think he is a great play Dark Horse play this week. If nothing else, Koepka is also a great match up and prop bet for the week.
Winner
Jason Day (12/1): It’s no secret, I don’t particularly care much for Day…too much drama follows him around for my liking, but the guy’s record at the US Open is unreal. In six career US Open starts he is 6/6 in Made Cuts with FIVE Top:10 finishes including two 2nd place finishes. He finally showed signs of good form again recently at the Byron Nelson and Memorial (where he has a terrible record) and for the first time in several years he comes into this tournament without much hype of expectation. On a course where driving the ball and short game will be at a premium I like Day’s chances a lot this week. If Day (and the USGA) can manage an entire 72 holes without any drama, I think Jason Day picks up his second Major Championship at Erin Hills this week.
For all the dad’s out there, just remember on this Father’s Day weekend…you are not as good of a Father as Phil Mickelson. Try harder.
U.S. Open - DFS Best Bets
By Austin Chen
Vegasinsider.com
The 117th US Open will be played at Erin Hills in Erin, Wisconsin. The course is clouded in mystery as most players will have no previous course history except for the few who played the 2011 U.S. Amateur championship.
Erin Hills measures out to 7693 yards and is a par 72 links style layout. The course has drawn comparisons to recent US Open venue Chambers Bay. Like any US Open, the rough will be brutal and the course will test every aspect of a players game. The one thing golfers can take advantage of is the wider than normal US Open fairways. Bombers will be rewarded if they can keep it out of the rough and bunkers. However, we have to be on the lookout for high winds.
Be sure to check the weather reports as we get closer to Thursday.
Key Stats:
Driving Distance
Par 5 Scoring
Scrambling
Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee
Approaches 200+ yards
Before we break down players to play for the US Open, everyone should go check out the RotoQL PGA Lineup Optimizer as it is a must when building your daily fantasy golf teams regardless of contest size or site.
Players To Consider For The US Open
High-End Plays
Dustin Johnson (DK:$12,000, FD: $11,200)
Dustin Johnson is the favorite to repeat as US Open champion at 29/4 barring another freak injury before a major. Despite the shocking missed cut at the Memorial, this has been a career year for Johnson with 3 wins, 2nds, and a 3rd. He is ranked 1st in Green In Regulation %, Driving Distance, SG: Off-The-Tee and 2nd in Par 5 scoring. Nobody has played better at the US Open in the last 3 years than Dustin Johnson with a 1st, 2nd, and 4th place finish. He checks every box you are looking for in a player to succeed at Erin Hills. The only question is if you are willing to pay top dollar.
Jon Rahm (DK:$10,300, FD: $10,400)
I am hoping Jon Rahm missing the cut at the Memorial will lower his ownership at the US Open. It could be wishful thinking though. The Spaniard has been very impressive in his debut season finishing T5 or better in 6 out of 11 events. Jon Rahm recently talked about how the course he grew up playing was similar to Colonial where it was narrow and short. This required accuracy as you couldn’t overpower it. His 2nd place finish at Colonial proved the doubters that he could not play as well on certain courses. Rahm is ranked 3rd in SG: Off-The-Tee, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 20th in Scrambling, and 12th in Driving Distance this year proving that his game really has no weaknesses.
Other Golfers To Consider: Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day
Mid Tier Plays
Adam Scott (DK:$8800, FD: $9,500)
Adam Scott has planned out his schedule this season for the sole purpose of preparing and performing well in the 4 majors. The weakest part of his game this year has been driving accuracy but Erin Hills has fairways much wider than the normal US Open standards. For the season, Scott is 17th in Driving Distance and 54th SG: Off-The-Tee and 34th in SG: Putting. The flat stick has kept him from winning more majors so it is good to see that it has been better. Adam Scott is 30/1 to win the US Open which is 10th highest. At $8800 on Draftkings, Scott makes for a great mid tier play with a high chance to win the US Open.
Branden Grace (DK:$8600, FD: $7,700)
After a slow start to the 2017 season, Branden Grace’s play has picked up with 3 Top 11s in his last 4 events. The South African is 32nd in Par 5 scoring average, 47th in Green In Regulation %, and 41st in Scrambling. Grace is becoming one of the better Major players as he has finished T27 or better in 6 of his last 9 majors. More importantly, Branden Grace has notched top 5 finishes in the last 2 US Opens.
Other Golfers To Consider: Brooks Koepka, Paul Casey, Daniel Berger
Value Plays
Thomas Pieters (DK:$7700, FD: $7,400)
Thomas Pieters is a value play on both daily fantasy sites and will become popular as we get closer to the US Open. He is a phenomenal play on Fanduel as he has the 18th highest odds to win the US Open but is priced as the only the 32nd highest salary. He is long off the tee and has played very well in his limited schedule on the PGA Tour. Pieters has 3 top 5s out of the 8 events played in 2017. Anyone who can finish T4 at his 1st Masters is worth considering.
Louis Oosthuizen (DK:$7400, FD: $8,400)
The chance of withdrawing is usually the reason DFS players are scared of playing Louis Oosthuizen. Surprisingly that has not been a problem this year. Louis Oosthuizen checks the box in SG: Off-The-Tee and Scrambling as he is ranked 19th in both.He has made every cut and is coming off a T2 and T18 in his last 2 events. Oosthuizen is averaging 76.2 DraftKings points an event which is good for the 11th highest average DK points. You are getting a great bargain as his price is much lower than one would expect with that kind of scoring ability.
Other Golfers To Consider: Patrick Reed, Martin Kaymer, Kevin Kisner
Punt Plays (Below $7000)
Billy Horschel (DK:$6,700, FD: $6,500)
Billy Horschel is listed as the 2nd best value play for the US Open according to RotoQL projections. This is just one of many tools you can find on RotoQL. Horschel has been a boom or bust player all season which was highlighted by a playoff win at the Byron Nelson. This makes him an ideal GPP play. At the very attractive price of $6700, the risk is well worth the reward.
Marc Leishman (DK:$6,700, FD: $6,900)
Marc Leishman checks all the boxes in the 5 key stats mentioned earlier to target for the US Open. He is no worst than 53rd in any of them. After his win at the Arnold Palmer, he hit a bit of a rough patch. The good news is that he has picked up 2 T15 or better in his last 3 events. He is a tremendous value pick that has both recent form and good stats going into Erin Hills.
Other Golfers To Consider: Pat Perez, Byeong-Hun An, Stewart Cink
U.S. Open - Golfers to Bet
By: StatFox.com
The world’s top golfers head to Wisconsin on Thursday to compete in this year’s U.S. Open. The winner of this event is supposed to make $2,160,000, which is more than any golfer in history has made for coming away with just one victory. It is a record-setting amount, and so is the $12,000,000 purse for the tournament. The field for this event is going to be outstanding, as all of the best golfers in the world will be out there come Thursday. The field will, however, feel a little empty without both Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods. Mickelson is going to be busy attending his daughter’s high school graduation, and Woods has not yet recovered from his back surgery. He also happens to be dealing with some off-the-course issues, as it is no secret that he received a DUI just a few weeks ago. With Woods not playing, there are no players in this tournament with more than one win in this event. That means the field is relatively open, which should make for an incredible tournament to watch. With that out of the way, let’s now take a look at some of the better value plays for this one:
Dustin Johnson (7-to-1) - Dustin Johnson and Paulina Gretzky just had their second child, but Johnson will be locked in and ready to go on Thursday. He has been absolutely incredible this season, winning three events and finishing inside the top-five in three other tournaments. Johnson also happens to be incredible in this tournament. He won this thing a year ago, shooting a four-under to beat Jim Furyk, Shane Lowry, and Scott Piercy by three strokes apiece. He also was the runner-up when Jordan Speith won in 2015. His ability to drive the ball is huge in events like these, and he is a great value at 7-to-1.
Jason Day (11-to-1) - Jason Day is currently third in the Official World Golf Rankings, yet the golfer has not yet won a tournament this season. He came in second at the AT&T Byron Nelson, but he is surprisingly still searching for a win. That could very well end on Sunday, as Day has been excellent at the U.S. Open over the years. While he has never won the event, Day was a runner-up in 2013 and in 2011. He also happens to have four top-10 finishes at this tournament over the past five outings. With that type of consistency, he’s an excellent play at 11-to-1.
Jon Rahm (18-to-1) - Like Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm is a guy that is made for tournaments like this one. Rahm is excellent off the tee, and he can win any event when his short game is working. Just look at his results this year. Rahm won the Farmers Insurance Open in January, came in second at the WGC Dell-Match Play event in March, and also finished inside the top-five at both the Wells Fargo Championship and Dean & DeLuca Invitational in May. He’s rolling right now, and fans should expect him to play some excellent golf here. Don’t be afraid to back him at 18-to-1.
Brandt Snedeker (80-to-1) - Snedeker hasn’t necessarily performed at a high level recently, as he was cut at the AT&T Byron Nelson and finished tied for 48th at the Dean & DeLuca Invitational in his most recent outing. Snedeker is, however, the most talented golfer getting anything close to the 80-to-1 odds he’s receiving in this tournament. He is definitely worth a dart throw in this event, as he can be as good as anybody when he is driving the ball well. His putting game is certainly as good as they come.
U.S. Open Preview
By Matt Fargo
Covers.com
The second Major is upon us as the 117th U.S. Open will be contested this week from Erin Hills in Erin, Wisconsin, northwest of Milwaukee. This is the first U.S. Open for Erin Hills which opened in 2006 and hosted the 2011 U.S. Amateur and this is the first Major of any kind for the state of Wisconsin. Lack of experience on this track should produce some exciting storylines but one thing that we should be able to predict is that players who typically play well at U.S. Open venues should be in the mix here as well.
Erin Hills will provide a true test of golf from every aspect. It is a par 72 that stretches to 7,693 yards, which is the second longest U.S. Open layout ever. While it may look and feel like a links-style course, the designers do not want that distinction. There is fescue, limited trees and wind but this is considered a heartland course which is a breed between a parkland course and a links course. The length, extremely long and thick fescue, 138 bunkers and potential strong winds should cause plenty of havoc.
One favorable aspect for the players is the fairways. Hitting the ball into the fescue will only happen to the big sprayers as the fairways at Erin Hills are exceptionally big and are some of the biggest fairways that the U.S. Open has ever seen. But they do still present a challenge. The key for players will not be just finding the fairway, but finding the right spot in the fairway to set up the most advantageous angles for the second shots. For the pros, this is not a difficult task as long as they do their homework prior.
All four of the par fives measure over 600 yards so we will not be seeing many eagle opportunities. Instead, players will manage their layups to the best positions to stick their shots close and set up birdies. The four par threes are all manageable as only one is longer than 215 yards and that checks in at just 237 yards at its max. Par Four scoring is where the difference could be made. Six of the ten par fours are 464 yards and longer making successful long iron play imperative.
The greens are slightly bigger than most U.S. Open venues so hitting them will not be overly difficult. And that is important because the bunkers that surround some of the greens are so treacherous that in some cases, sideway shots come into play so going after the flag cannot even happen in certain instances. When getting to the green, players will be rolling the ball on what are considered some of the smoothest putting surfaces in recent U.S. Open memory. And they will not be lightning fast on top of it.
For the first time since 1992 at Pebble Beach, the U.S. Open will play as a par 72. This makes little difference the same shots need to be made and the only thing that will be affected will be the final score and how it relates to other U.S. Open finishes. There are a handful of players in the field that competed here at the 2011 U.S. Amateur. Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Harris English, Peter Uihlein, Russell Henley and Bryson Dechambeau are the six players who have experience here but how much that helps this week is difficult to determine.
World No. 1 Dustin Johnson, four-time Major winner Rory McIlroy and Masters champion Sergio Garcia head a list expected to include 58 of the top 60 players in the world rankings with Ryan Moore (injury) and Phil Mickelson (personal) being the lone absentees. Mickelson has not officially withdrawn and if there is a Thursday weather delay of about four hours, he could actually make it. With a purse of $12 million, this will be the first major with a winner's share exceeding $2 million.
While the thought is that the Majors are dominated by the world's best players, that has hardly been the case, t a degree. Of the last 34 Majors, there have been 27 different winners with Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson, Martin Kaymer, Bubba Watson and Jordan Spieth being the only two-time or more Major winners over that stretch. As far as the U.S. Open, 11 of the last 12 winners hoisted the trophy for the first time, with Tiger Woods in 2008 being his third title.
Dustin Johnson will be out to defend but it will not be easy as the last back-to-back U.S. Open champion was Curtis Strange in 1988 and 1989. How difficult is it to defend? Only six players in the history of the U.S. Open have finished higher than 30th the following year and it bit Jordan Spieth last year as he finished T37 after winning at Chambers Bay in 2015. Johnson has cooled off since his stretch of three straight wins and a T2 as he has finishes of T12, T13 and MC in his last three starts.
Johnson is the big favorite this week at +675 followed by Rory McIlroy at +1,125, Jason Day at +1,240 and Jordan Spieth at +1,285. Jon Rahm and Rickie Fowler are next at +1,760 and +1,860 respectively while Justin Rose (+2,170), Sergio Garcia (+2,170), Adam Scott (+2,610) and Henrik Stenson (+2,740) round out the top ten.
The 117th United States Open Golf Championship
By Brady Kannon
Covers.com
Not only is it a new course for the players but also to the fans of Major Championship golf. The course is a massive piece of property, a heartland course that stretches to as much as 7800-yards. Located 35-milses northwest of Milwaukee, the property sits in The Kettle Moraine Forest in an area formed primarily by glaciers. 90% of the design maintains how Mother Nature has formed the terrain. It looks very much like a links-style design with its rolling contour, very few even lies, and knee-high, wispy fescue grass heather bordering very wide fairways.
The golf course opened to the public eleven years ago and was designed by Dr. Michael Hurdzan, Dana Fry, and Ron Whitten. The greens are of average size and don’t feature much undulation but are in excellent condition and should run extremely fast this week. Surrounding the greens, the fall off areas are shaved down, looking much like Augusta National and Pinehurst #2. 138 incredibly unique sand bunkers exist at Erin Hills and they are brutal, with all different kinds of lies and predicaments facing players who find the sand this week.
For the first time since Pebble Beach in 1992, The U.S. Open will be played to a par of 72. In this wide-open spread of Wisconsin heartland, and not even half a dozen trees on the course, one can expect plenty of wind and that should go a long way in producing scores that look more like a typical U.S. Open golf course. Heavy wind is not currently in the forecast but a couple of days worth of thunderstorms are. Mother Nature did most of the design here and she may go a long way in determining the winning score come Father’s Day afternoon.
The Favorites
Dustin Johnson (+8.98 Pinnacle) The defending U.S. Open Champion will be playing in his first Major of the season having missed The Masters with injury. The number one player in the world has already won three times this season and his length off of the tee will be a big advantage this week. DJ has finished Top 5 in three straight U.S. Opens.
Jordan Spieth (+1617 Bookmaker) Spieth has been up and down so far in 2017 but currently he looks to be on the up with a 2nd at Colonial and a 13th at The Memorial since switching back to his old putter. He is 2nd on Tour in Scoring and 1st in Strokes Gained Approaching the Green. He has played this course before as a teenager in the 2011 U.S. Amateur.
Rory McIlroy (+14.06 Pinnacle) It has been a month since we have seen McIlroy play in the states, when he took 35th at The PLAYERS. He finished 4th at Bay Hill and 7th at The Masters but a rib injury suffered back in January has limited the number two player in the world. However, Erin Hills should be an excellent fit for the 2011 U.S. Open Champion.
The Contenders
Jon Rahm (+2129 Bookmaker) This is only the second time Rahm has played a U.S. Open, bursting onto the golfing scene last year with a 23rd place finish at Oakmont. He won earlier this year at Torrey Pines, another U.S. Open golf course and has six additional Top 10 finishes this season. An incredible ascension, Rahm has vaulted up the rankings to number ten in the world.
Justin Rose (+2578 Bookmaker) A U.S. Open winner at Merion in 2013, Rose comes to the second Major the of the season having lost in a playoff to Sergio Garcia at The Masters. He has four Top 10 finishes on the season but the last time we saw him, he took 65th at The PLAYERS.
Adam Scott (+30.25 Pinnacle) An exquisite ball striker and good wind player, the Australian’s game has taken on very good form as of late, finishing 9th at The Masters, 6th at The PLAYERS, and 10th just last week at The FedEx St. Jude Classic. Scott has two Top 10’s and a Top 20 in his last three U.S. Opens.
The Long Shots
Brooks Koepka (+4800 5Dimes) After getting off to a shaky start this season, Koepka has been playing at a very high level since The Match Play in March. He has plenty of length to tackle this week’s beast and a deft putting tough to go along with it. Koepka is another who has played here in the 2011 U.S. Amateur. His last three U.S. Open starts have gone 13-18-4.
Jason Dufner (+74.09 Pinnacle) A very accurate driver of the golf ball, Dufner very much fits the mold of a U.S. Open type player. He is coming off of a win two weeks ago at The Memorial, bringing his opening odds of 150-1 down to just 50-1 to win this week. In the last five U.S. Opens, Dufner has two Top 5’s and a Top 10 finish.
Steve Stricker (+18500 5Dimes) The Wisconsin native is thrilled to be here for this Championship in his home state. Without an exemption, Stricker had to go through the qualifying stages to get into the field. This will be his 20th time playing The U.S. Open, a Major at which he has compiled four Top 10 finishes. Stricker took 7th three weeks ago at Colonial.
The Pick
Rickie Fowler (+22.61 Pinnacle) Fowler has had an excellent year, winning The Honda Classic, taking 4th in Phoenix, 3rd in Houston, 11th at The Masters, and 2nd just two weeks ago at The Memorial. His stats are some of the best on Tour across the board; 11th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 7th in Strokes Gained Putting, 3rd in Scoring, 1st in Sand Saves, and 22nd in Scrambling. Fowler is an excellent wind player and I like The American to continue the trend, claiming his first Major Championship victory this week in Wisconsin. Six of the last eight U.S. Open winners have been first time Major winners and the last six Majors in a row have been won by a first timer. After finishing 10th at Merion in 2013 and 2nd at Pinehurst in 2014, Fowler has missed the cut at the last two U.S. Opens. I like him to win the National Championship this week.