U.S. Open tourney preview and picks
By Charles Bricker
As if things aren't going well enough for Roger Federer, he could scarcely have concocted a more comfortable draw for himself through the first week of the U.S. Open.
He's certainly a heavy favorite (+114) to win his sixth consecutive U.S. Open and 16th Grand Slam singles title, but there are just enough ifs in there to encourage some astute betting.
If No. 1: Andy Murray (+370) can stop depending on his defense and forced-errors tactics once he gets to the final four, he's good enough to take New York.
If No. 2: Andy Roddick (+1600), now recovered from the hip injury that hampered him in the Wimbledon final, plays like he did in losing 16-14 to Federer in the fifth in the Wimbledon championship match.
If No. 3: Rafael Nadal (+725), still searching for his rhythm after a three-month layoff, finds it by the second week to build some momentum into the final.
For the men, the first week does not have the look of great excitement. Certainly, there is the first-round match between Nadal and Richard Gasquet that might tell us how much farther Rafa has come in his extremely hard preparation for this tournament. And there is a probable Tommy Haas vs. Fernando Verdasco third-rounder. But, on balance, 99.9 percent of the compelling activity is going to be centered in the second week.
Not so with the women, however, where unseeded Kim Clijsters (+1400) and No. 29 Maria Sharapova (+1200) have early major tests -- Clijsters unseeded because she's only seven matches into a comeback from retirement and Sharapova, who only this week vaulted into seeding territory because she's only 29 matches into a return from shoulder surgery.
Here’s a quick breakdown of both the men’s and women’s draw:
Men
Federer has a relative cruise into the quarters and Lleyton Hewitt, whom he could meet in the third round, isn't going to challenge him unless he's completely fit -- which he probably is not at this time. Once in the quarters, Fed will play one of these three -- Sam Querrey, Nicolay Davydenko or Robin Soderling. He's a combined 25-0 against that lot.
That takes us to the semis, where I think Roddick, whose only major title is in New York, will be waiting after working his way through either Verdasco or Haas in the fourth and Djokovic in the quarters. Roddick has only one title this year (Memphis, indoors), but he's playing his best tennis since 2004. His record against top 10s this year isn't impressive, but he's at home, on a court he loves and he's missed the quarters at only one event this year, and that was his personal-best round-of-16 finish at the French Open. He can win this tournament.
What about Murray? A typical Murray match has him with, say, 13 winners and 11 unforced errors. He wins by forcing mistakes, and that's good enough for four or even five rounds. But once he gets into rarified air, he needs to play riskier, more aggressive tennis. He needs to press issues at the net. We know he can beat Federer. He had a four-match winning streak before losing at Cincinnati a couple weeks ago.
And Nadal? His knees are fine. He's energized and fully fit. What's missing is his rhythm, and you only get that back by playing matches. He's not hitting his serves with the authority he had before the knee rehab, but you can mark that down to a lack of confidence in his rhythm. He'll build his game through the first week and it's no longer an issue that he's a better player than Federer when he's not hurt or having been off several weeks. But he's not at that point now.
I'm not tipping Novak Djokovic (+1575) because he's a mystery. One day he looks like No. 1 and the next he's back in a defensive shell, not trusting his best shots. He's got mental issues to overcome, plus the lack of a net game.
Women
It's well known the women's tour is in something of a quagmire, and has been since Justine Henin retired early in 2008. There's no clear No. 1, though Safina has held the spot for several weeks now. Her lack of respect is because she's never won a major and she's not going to win this one -- not with Serena Williams in this event.
This might be Williams' toughest opening Slam week in years with Sybille Bammer looming in the third and Sam Stosur in the round of 16. Bammer whacked Serena a few weeks ago in the round of 16 at Cincinnati and Stosur bear her in the quarters at Stanford, not long after Williams won Wimbledon. Nice work, ladies. But this is a major. We'll get a much stronger effort from Williams.
Once she gets by those two rough patches, she's clear to the semis, where my guess is she faces either sister Venus or Clijsters.
And now for Maria, who is 22-7 since returning to tour. Everything looks fabulous except her serve. She had 61 double faults in five matches in Los Angeles, right after Wimbledon, and 56 in six matches in losing the Toronto final to Elena Dementieva a week ago. She's changed her service motion because of her shoulder operation and she's getting good consistency on the first serve (about 64 percent in). But she's getting into deep trouble with the second.
Otherwise, she looks great. She's very fit and, though she's no great athlete, she's moving better than ever. She's playing aggressive, confident tennis and if you're thinking of betting her, watch how her serve develops during the tournament. She has to get better in that aspect or, at some point on a path of seven matches, she's going to double-fault herself right out of contention.
Why no Dementieva in the top five? She's destined to go down as one of the greatest women players never to win a Slam. She doesn't show up in the championship matches of majors and I wouldn't recommend her, even after a fantastic summer in the lead-up tournaments.
Here's my top five plays in both tournaments, in order of preference:
Among the men, Federer (+114), Roddick (+1600), Murray (+370), Nadal (+725) and Juan Martin Del Potro (+1350). Among the women, Serena Williams (+220), Sharapova (+1200), Venus Williams (+550), Jelena Jankovic (+1425) and Clijsters (+1400).